Salary Cap: Bo Horvat’s Next Contract

[MikeK]

It'll start @$7M per and go up from there based on years. I'm not looking forward to it. His next contract has always worried me.

 

[Blue and Green]

A few weeks before the Covid shutdown, Chris Kreider re-signed with the Rangers for $6.5M x 7 with a full NMC in the first four years. Four months earlier, Brayden Schenn re-signed with the Blues for $6.5M x 8 with a full NTC for the first five seasons. I think that sort of sets the market for Horvat.

 

[shottasasa]

A few weeks before the Covid shutdown, Chris Kreider re-signed with the Rangers for $6.5M x 7 with a full NMC in the first four years. Four months earlier, Brayden Schenn re-signed with the Blues for $6.5M x 8 with a full NTC for the first five seasons. I think that sort of sets the market for Horvat.

I think you might be disappointed. A more recent comparable that worries me is Tomas Hertl who has scored at the same pace as Horvat in his career and just got $8.1x8. And contracts like Nick Suzuki's 7.875x8 that only buys out a couple UFA years. I think Horvat will come under those, but I think he's going to get paid like a top 30 centre because there simply aren't that many Centres that can score 30 goals and play shutdown mins that are paid less than $7m AAV, and the ones that are would be getting paid at least that if they were in Horvat's position.

I believe the Canucks can be a contender in the lifetime of a Horvat contract up to $7.5m as long as he plays at approximately that level (6.5-8 market value) for the next 5 years and they get surplus value elsewhere (Hughes, Demko, Podkolzin, Garland, maybe Rathbone and Hoglander). It doesn't leave too much room though at all. but I don't see too many options that would be more cost effective unless they hit massively on draft pick this year or next, which is highly unlikely.

 

[StreetHawk]

A few weeks before the Covid shutdown, Chris Kreider re-signed with the Rangers for $6.5M x 7 with a full NMC in the first four years. Four months earlier, Brayden Schenn re-signed with the Blues for $6.5M x 8 with a full NTC for the first five seasons. I think that sort of sets the market for Horvat.

If you are maxing out term then it will start in the $6 mill. Trying to secure just 5 years you’re paying well over $7 mill per.

Say he’s worth the Schenn deal at $6.5 mill AAV for 8 years. That’s $52 mill tots money.

If you want him at only 5 years it’s not going to be $32.5 mill. Can’t just take the same AAV and chop off years. Value of those first 5 years is way higher than the final 3.

Probably pushing close to $7.5 mill AAV to get to $37.5 mill. Even that leaves Bo at age 33 to find a 3 year deal for $14.5 mill or like $4.8 mill AAV for 3 years at age 33.

That’s why players if they can push for longer term.

 

[Blue and Green]

If you are maxing out term then it will start in the $6 mill. Trying to secure just 5 years you’re paying well over $7 mill per.

Say he’s worth the Schenn deal at $6.5 mill AAV for 8 years. That’s $52 mill tots money.

If you want him at only 5 years it’s not going to be $32.5 mill. Can’t just take the same AAV and chop off years. Value of those first 5 years is way higher than the final 3.

Probably pushing close to $7.5 mill AAV to get to $37.5 mill. Even that leaves Bo at age 33 to find a 3 year deal for $14.5 mill or like $4.8 mill AAV for 3 years at age 33.

That’s why players if they can push for longer term.

Obviously, the AAV should decline as aging-process years are added.

Boeser effectively got $7.2M and a 10-team NTC for his age 27 UFA season. And his contract is all salary, no signing bonuses.

 

[im gangster]

I'm a hell of a lot more comfortable giving that money to Horvat than to Boeser.

Bo at $6.65m and Brock elsewhere please. I’d rather Bo be liquidated too, but that just won’t happen.

 

[StreetHawk]

Obviously, the AAV should decline as aging-process years are added.

Boeser effectively got $7.2M and a 10-team NTC for his age 27 UFA season. And his contract is all salary, no signing bonuses.

Like if Bo tears his acl like Roussell and similarly can’t recover from it he would have flushed a good chunk of that $14 mill difference away.
So you are paying for that player to take that risk of not getting term.

 

[Cancuks]

If we're going to give Horvat $7 million or more then I'd rather trade him for picks and prospects, keep Miller, and sign a guy like Copp.

 

[Blue and Green]

I think you might be disappointed. A more recent comparable that worries me is Tomas Hertl who has scored at the same pace as Horvat in his career and just got $8.1x8. And contracts like Nick Suzuki's 7.875x8 that only buys out a couple UFA years. I think Horvat will come under those, but I think he's going to get paid like a top 30 centre because there simply aren't that many Centres that can score 30 goals and play shutdown mins that are paid less than $7m AAV, and the ones that are would be getting paid at least that if they were in Horvat's position.

I believe the Canucks can be a contender in the lifetime of a Horvat contract up to $7.5m as long as he plays at approximately that level (6.5-8 market value) for the next 5 years and they get surplus value elsewhere (Hughes, Demko, Podkolzin, Garland, maybe Rathbone and Hoglander). It doesn't leave too much room though at all. but I don't see too many options that would be more cost effective unless they hit massively on draft pick this year or next, which is highly unlikely.

I think Hertl and Suzuki are better players plus most people thought Hertl was an overpayment. Suzuki's contract actually buys 4 UFA seasons and it expires when he's 30.

At age 28 last summer Sean Couturier got $7.75M x 8 with a full NMC for all but the last year. He had outpaced Horvat offensively by a substantial amount in the preceding four seasons.

 

[theguardianII]

So some think he is equivalent to a 1rst line center, a major shut down center and will be better at age 34 than now.

So that makes Miller and Petey 2nd and 3rd line centers on this losing team right?

 

[Blue and Green]

So some think he is equivalent to a 1rst line center, a major shut down center and will be better at age 34 than now.

So that makes Miller and Petey 2nd and 3rd line centers on this losing team right?

Given that you way off of the mark with your borderline 2C/3C evaluation of his offensive production, perhaps you could spare everyone the snark.

 

[NYVanfan]

So are we trying to set a record for a non-playoff team with the most $6M+ players?

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

4 X 8M (32)
5 X 7.5M (33)
6 X 7M (34)
7 X 6.5M (35)
8 X 6M (36)

Have to seriously consider trading him as he’s going to get overpaid in free agency and we’ll probably lose him for nothing.

 

[StreetHawk]

4 X 8M (32)
5 X 7.5M (33)
6 X 7M (34)
7 X 6.5M (35)
8 X 6M (36)

Have to seriously consider trading him as he’s going to get overpaid in free agency and we’ll probably lose him for nothing.

Forsberg sounds like he’s getting 8 years at $8.5 AAV. Same 28 that Bo will be next year. Preds roster not top end but their roster also had big contracts on it that are locked in for the next 4 years. Jossi, McD, Ekholm, Duchene, Johansen.

469 points in 566 games for FF.
366 points in 572 games for Bo.

Bo won’t come in at an $8, over the max term but I think your AAV are probably close to what they should be based on term.

$32 mill for 4 years
48 mill for 8 years. He’s have to find a $16 mill deal over 4 years at age 32 to be even.

That’s why if he can do the full 8 he’s push for it. $10.6 mill of that $16 mill minimum is guaranteed once he signs.

 

[Tomatoes11]

So are we trying to set a record for a non-playoff team with the most $6M+ players?

Unfortunately, that’s what it looks like. That’s not the scary thing either.

The scary thing is say we do trade Myers and OEL to make room to re sign all 3 of Boeser, Horvat, and miller. Imagine if the restructured D isn’t any better after unloading them, there’s always a chance of that. If that happened we would be such a bad team. Lol

 

[theguardianII]

Given that you way off of the mark with your borderline 2C/3C evaluation of his offensive production, perhaps you could spare everyone the snark.

Okay then lets give market value of power winger that is 27 yrs old, but centers are worth more - 8 X 8.5 mil Forsberg's money right?
Except Nashville has been a playoff team the eight years in a row.
There is no difference the Canucks have missed a legit regular season playoff spot once in the last 8 years. No difference at all eh.

Get him wrapped up with a cap hit if 8.5 mil at age 36 yrs.

Do you really think he is as good as Malkin, Drasaitl or others.
Is he worth that much when McCann was 2 points behind
Sam Bennet 3 points back

IMO you are over rating his league value, the best season of his career 4 going on 5 years ago.

So a thought game, Horvat 35 yrs old at 8.5 mil, Miller at 37 yrs old has to be more because he got way more points 9 mil cap hit, Petey at 29 yrs old at 11 mi cap hit, Hughes at 28 yrs 9 mil cap hit.
Petey #1 center, Miller/Horvat #2, Miller/Horvat #3
No player in 5 years is better than them ever.
And this group who has been together for 4 years now going on 5 years has "earned" playoff team money?

This is a bad team, they have been for years, YEARS, a player that is outstanding on this team may be mediocre compared to the really good teams.
Would you pay McCann 8.5 mil for 8 years? Reinhart? Bennett?

My evaluation of Horvat is also derived from the hope the team gets better, that they find another Malkin with Crosby, Drasaitl to McDavid, Mathews to Taveras,

One season of 60 points 4 years ago, that's it. No Selkie trophies, A good FO guy, no playoffs.

 

[theguardianII]

Unfortunately, that’s what it looks like. That’s not the scary thing either.

The scary thing is say we do trade Myers and OEL to make room to re sign all 3 of Boeser, Horvat, and miller. Imagine if the restructured D isn’t any better after unloading them, there’s always a chance of that. If that happened we would be such a bad team. Lol

Competing with Chicago for Bedard

 

[bandwagonesque]

Do you really think he is as good as Malkin, Drasaitl or others.

Excellent comparison, I never thought about it this way.

 

[theguardianII]

Excellent comparison, I never thought about it this way.

If Vancouver got so good he is the 3rd line center they will or should be a powerhouse.
No 3rd line centers except RNH are getting that much money and that team has a cap problem. IMO RNH is very good player they need younger cap controlled guys to help fill out that team or a few older vets taking a mil or less that can still be effective with lesser ice time.

I would try for 4yrs @ 6 mil or the same as he has now 5 x 5.5 with no clauses

 

[StreetHawk]

If Vancouver got so good he is the 3rd line center they will or should be a powerhouse.
No 3rd line centers except RNH are getting that much money and that team has a cap problem. IMO RNH is very good player they need younger cap controlled guys to help fill out that team or a few older vets taking a mil or less that can still be effective with lesser ice time.

I would try for 4yrs @ 6 mil or the same as he has now 5 x 5.5 with no clauses

He’s not signing for that. You can try but it would get rejected fast. Risk is too high for him not to push for as long a term as he can get. I don’t think he’s a max term player. But I think he easily get 6-7 years on the open market. Those final 2 years are guaranteed money at 2/3. So if that’s $10-12 mill or whatever then $6.6/$8 mill is guaranteed once he signs. That’s why he’ll push to get term. Have to consider the player side of things.

 

[theguardianII]

He’s not signing for that. You can try but it would get rejected fast. Risk is too high for him not to push for as long a term as he can get. I don’t think he’s a max term player. But I think he easily get 6-7 years on the open market. Those final 2 years are guaranteed money at 2/3. So if that’s $10-12 mill or whatever then $6.6/$8 mill is guaranteed once he signs. That’s why he’ll push to get term. Have to consider the player side of things.

I am sympathetic to the players if he didn't get that much he would be forced to have to live on 55 million instead of 80 million, just not fair, right?
Who cares if he ever plays on a winning team? He has to be paid FIRST no matter the results.

He wins face offs, he doesn't hit hardly at all, extremely rarely stands up for his team mates, doesn't seem to make the players around him that muck better and is quiet. Maybe he has tried to be leading too long, maybe it is better if he follows on another team and just plays without all the drama of playing on a loser team, how many of those post game interviews can you do while trying to be everyone's friend and without saying anything bad?

You see I AM thinking about that poor player, maybe he is burned out and needs a change of scenery, just for his mental health

 

[Blue and Green]

Okay then lets give market value of power winger that is 27 yrs old, but centers are worth more - 8 X 8.5 mil Forsberg's money right?
Except Nashville has been a playoff team the eight years in a row.
There is no difference the Canucks have missed a legit regular season playoff spot once in the last 8 years. No difference at all eh.

Get him wrapped up with a cap hit if 8.5 mil at age 36 yrs.

Do you really think he is as good as Malkin, Drasaitl or others.
Is he worth that much when McCann was 2 points behind
Sam Bennet 3 points back

IMO you are over rating his league value, the best season of his career 4 going on 5 years ago.

So a thought game, Horvat 35 yrs old at 8.5 mil, Miller at 37 yrs old has to be more because he got way more points 9 mil cap hit, Petey at 29 yrs old at 11 mi cap hit, Hughes at 28 yrs 9 mil cap hit.
Petey #1 center, Miller/Horvat #2, Miller/Horvat #3
No player in 5 years is better than them ever.
And this group who has been together for 4 years now going on 5 years has "earned" playoff team money?

This is a bad team, they have been for years, YEARS, a player that is outstanding on this team may be mediocre compared to the really good teams.
Would you pay McCann 8.5 mil for 8 years? Reinhart? Bennett?

My evaluation of Horvat is also derived from the hope the team gets better, that they find another Malkin with Crosby, Drasaitl to McDavid, Mathews to Taveras,

One season of 60 points 4 years ago, that's it. No Selkie trophies, A good FO guy, no playoffs.

Who said anything about $8.5M x 8?

Your comments in this thread are a series of misrepresentations. First you said that Horvat's offensive production is on the 2C/3C border, which is provably far from reality, then you claim that "some think... he will be better at age 34" when in fact absolutely no one has written that, and now you refer to $8.5M x 8 when again, no one here has suggested that he be given that contract. Try making some good faith arguments based on facts and refutations of what people have actually written.

 

[iFan]

I’m a fan of Horvat! from when we drafted him to now, but 7 million is too much imo. 6 million is probably fair, 5.5 million with term would be ideal. He’s no superstar, nor a game breaker talent, he’s a 2nd line center workhorse, tying up 7 million on him isn’t a great idea.

 

[StreetHawk]

I am sympathetic to the players if he didn't get that much he would be forced to have to live on 55 million instead of 80 million, just not fair, right?
Who cares if he ever plays on a winning team? He has to be paid FIRST no matter the results.

He wins face offs, he doesn't hit hardly at all, extremely rarely stands up for his team mates, doesn't seem to make the players around him that muck better and is quiet. Maybe he has tried to be leading too long, maybe it is better if he follows on another team and just plays without all the drama of playing on a loser team, how many of those post game interviews can you do while trying to be everyone's friend and without saying anything bad?

You see I AM thinking about that poor player, maybe he is burned out and needs a change of scenery, just for his mental health

The market will dictate what his value will be. Up to him to prioritize what he wishes to do.

 

[theguardianII]

Who said anything about $8.5M x 8?

Your comments in this thread are a series of misrepresentations. First you said that Horvat's offensive production is on the 2C/3C border, which is provably far from reality, then you claim that "some think... he will be better at age 34" when in fact absolutely no one has written that, and now you refer to $8.5M x 8 when again, no one here has suggested that he be given that contract. Try making some good faith arguments based on facts and refutations of what people have actually written.

Sarcasm. Answering posters who are already in at the 7.5 mil range before Forsberg set the table for this year's FA's

Perhaps you should look at some 2nd line centers production, there are 3rd line centers on good teams with very close to the same points with much less ice time.

7+ mil, as suggested by some here is very close to 8 mil, Draistl money, but there is vast difference in point totals.

3rd liner RNH got more points in fewer games at 5.5 mil a year, the most expensive 3rd liner in the league that is not aged out, back end of a long term contract in their mid 30's