Pre-Game Talk: Blues vs. Avs -- Round 1 Discussion

Who wins?


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BlueMed

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Jul 18, 2019
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According to analysts I shouldn't even watch, or better yet just give Colorado a free pass into the 2nd round, or better yet Chief should show up to Monday game and just wave the white flag and surrender.


Wonder what happen last time a team was this lopsided. Thinking Columbus and Tampa from couple years ago. Not saying that the Blues will do it, but this team is getting severely overlooked. It will be a better series than expected.

Sports analysts are not real statisticians and many don't even use real statistics principles so I don't put much stock into what they usually say. As a lifetime hockey fan, I have watched enough hockey to know that regular season success doesn't mean much come playoff time. On average, the presidents trophy winners usually get bounced in the second round.
 
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The Note

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I like Dom’s work, and generally agree that the Avs are a much better team. Having said that, I think it’s odd that anyone who has been following hockey for any period of time would say something like “If X team loses I’ll delete my account”. Hockey is by far the most random playoffs of the 4 major American sports and weird stuff happens every year. An aggressively average CBJ team swept one of the best teams the league has ever seen 2 years ago. Do I expect the Blues to win? No. Would it completely blow me away if they did? Of course not.
 

DoubleK81

It's always something with these pricks.
Sep 10, 2010
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PETRO SUCKS
unless he can be a impact player, bench him imo. cant allow floaters in this series
As much as I love Vladi, we have had a dismal record with him in the lineup this year. Many have pointed out elsewhere that he has been putting up good point totals which is true, but those points haven't been helping us win. I want Vladi to get back to the old Vladi as much as anyone, but if he's not good enough to make the the team better while he's getting to that point, this isn't the time to get him up to speed.
 
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ChicagoBlues

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Oct 24, 2006
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It’s very simple:

We win the series or we batter the AVs and they fall apart in the second round. They may beat us but make them remember and fear us.
We have to go after Makar with so much legal physicality that he withers away.

I think he is a key to this series. A free-wheeling Makar will make the Blues break their necks trying to keep up.
 
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Ranksu

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Avs is going to sweep us 4-0. Hopefully our players prove me wrong.
 
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Stupendous Yappi

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If the Blues have to be the underdog, I'd just as soon that the Avs are overwhelming favorites. If the Blues can start to get the upperhand, the tension and pressure on Colorado can start to grow pretty quickly. Remember the looks on the faces of the Lightning players when they were losing to Columbus? I could see something like that in Colorado.

I have no illusions about the Blues' chances, but I do think it works to their favor for Colorado to have that kind of pressure on their shoulders.
 

mk80

Registered User
Jul 30, 2012
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I'm really going into this series with no expectations.

Colorado is undoubtedly a great team, and they have had a fantastic year. And even going back to 2019 I have not wanted to meet them in the playoffs, but knew we would at some point. They have the ability to beat us, and having home ice is certainly an asset to them.

Saying that though, the Avs are not unbeatable. We have to be on our A game for sure, especially in these first two games. If we are going to win the series we have to come out of Colorado at least 1-1 and I do think that is doable.

I can see the Avs definitely winning the series, though I think the Blues will give them a run if they do. But the Blues can definitely upset them!
 
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HighNote

Just one more Cup
Jul 1, 2014
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Well, here's my breakdown for this series. I did this for each series in the Cup run, so I'll do it again.

Green
= Significant advantage in this category
Blue = Nearly even in this category
Red = Significant disadvantage in this category


Since
April 1st
GP​
GF​
GA​
Shots
for​
Shots
against​
PP%​
PK%​
FOW%​
GF/GA
P1​
GF/GA
P2​
GF/GA
P3​
Hits/60​
BkS/60​
Blues
21​
8th
14th
24th
21st
2nd
13th
2nd
+7
Even
+6
15th
2nd
Avs
21​
6th
10th
4th
2nd
9th
25th
12th
Even
+14
-8
27th
22nd
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Other significant stats: Colorado has the least time on ice at even strength and has the 2nd most minor penalties against during this time frame. They lead the league with the most interference penalties this season, while St. Louis is tied for the least (32 vs. 11). St. Louis is tied for 1st in the league with the most hooking penalties against, but the gap isn't nearly as big (33 vs. 26 for COL). Colorado has also given up the 2nd most shorthanded goals since April 1st with 16. The Blues have given up 10.

This series is not going to be easy, but I think there is more hope than people might think.

Surprisingly, the Blues and Avs have similar goals for and goals against down the stretch. The difference comes in how these teams score goals and give up goals. The Avs are a big time possession team, and I don't even have to look at actual possession stats to know this. They have a lot of shots for and not a lot of shots against, and not a lot of hits or blocks (because they have the puck a lot). The Blues don't fare so well. I expect the Avs to dominate puck possession at even strength this series. They like to shoot a lot, and their offense goes through their defense a lot. The Blues on the other hand try to find the right shots instead of throwing tons of pucks towards the net. They do not get a ton of high danger chances, but they capitalize on the ones they do get. So basically, they are in this middle ground between throwing everything at the net and waiting for the perfect chance a lot. The Avs kinda just get lots of chances, period. They are a highly offensive team, I think everyone knows this.

But a big difference between these teams is their special teams. The Blues have been stellar on the powerplay, and their PK has been fantastic as well, especially in their last dozen games or so. The Avs PK hasn't been great, but has picked up down the stretch. On the flip side, their PP has dropped off a bit in their last dozen games. Another significant thing that was already noted above, is that the Avs have played the least amount of time at even strength since April 1st. Special teams should be a significant factor in this series for these reasons. The Blues faceoff advantage is also a big factor in terms of special teams.

Another major factor in this series will be period by period scoring. This will be a very interesting dynamic in this series, I think. The Blues have been a bit better in the 1st period, but the difference isn't massive. The big differences come in the 2nd and 3rd periods. The Avs are phenomenal in the 2nd period, whereas that has been the Blues worst period. But what's interesting is that although the Avs have a 14 goal advantage in the 2nd, the Blues have a 14 goal advantage in the 3rd. But honestly I don't know what to make of this. But what I do know is that the Avs are 20-2-1 this season when leading after 1 and 31-1-1 when leading after 2.

Last thing I'll talk about is hitting. The Blues are a more physical team and we all know they ramp this part of their game up even more in the playoffs. The Avs aren't shy to hitting, though. They don't have a ton of hits because they typically have the puck. But one thing to think about is that the Avs top defenders, especially Girard and Makar, aren't very big guys. Getting in on the forecheck and hitting these guys any chance the Blues get will be a factor as the series goes on. Another thing is that the Avs are a very good skating team, and they're fast. I think it would be in the Blues interest to slow the game down and play physical.

Keys to the series for each team:

Blues: Make this series a grinding, physical, suffocating one. Have a strong, relentless forecheck and get the Avs to take penalties. Capitalize on those powerplays. Hit, hit hit. Hit their small, skilled defenders every chance you get. Don't give their defenseman any room in the O-zone, stick to shot-blocking. Do not trail after 1. Weather the storm in the 2nd period. An even 2nd period is a win in your book. Shut down their top line and make them rely more heavily on their depth, that's where you have the advantage.

Wild cards: Binnington, Parayko, Schwartz, Thomas, Tarasenko(?)
My guy to watch: Faulk

Avs: Make this series fast with lots of open ice and lots of rushes. Stay out of the penalty box at all costs. Don't let the high physicality get to you, and be sharp on breakouts. Don't get stuck in your zone for too long, have quick up and outs. Do not sit back with a 1 goal lead going into the 3rd. "End" the game before it gets to the 3rd. Get the most out of your home ice and matchup advantage. Get your top guys away from O'Reilly and Parayko. Your best players need to be your best players.

Wild cards: Grubauer, Burakovsky, Kadri, Nichushkin, Girard
My guy to watch: Saad

Key matchups: MacKinnon vs. O'Reilly, Binnington vs. Grubauer, 3rd line vs. 3rd line

Blues in...
4: Seriously doubt it
5: Doubt it
6: Possible if things go right
7: Most likely winning outcome

Avs in:
4: Doubt it
5: Possible if things go right
6: Most likely winning outcome
7: 50/50 chance if it comes to this

So if the Avs win, I think it's in 6. If the Blues win I think it's in 7, maybe 6. I like the Blues the longer the series drags on though. Avs will want to finish this in 5 or 6. If I'm an Avs fan, I'm afraid of a game 7.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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Its kind of stupid to be testing the players on a regular basis, post-vaccine. The protocols aren't keeping up with the changing conditions of the pandemic. Hopefully this is a false positive. What did Blais' result end up being. He was back in games pretty quickly.
 

Xerloris

reckless optimism
Jun 9, 2015
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Its kind of stupid to be testing the players on a regular basis, post-vaccine. The protocols aren't keeping up with the changing conditions of the pandemic. Hopefully this is a false positive. What did Blais' result end up being. He was back in games pretty quickly.

It was Walman and not Blais and he's still out.
 
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TheDizee

Trade Jordan Kyrou ASAP | ALWAYS RIGHT
Apr 5, 2014
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Guarantee you that games will not be postponed due to the Blues and Covid but they were postponed twice for the Avalanche this year because someone sneezed.
Ya was about to say the same thing. We got 2 players on the list now, time to cancel everyone's games for a week like they did last month for the refalanche.
 
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mk80

Registered User
Jul 30, 2012
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So if it is a false positive or contact tracing related and he is negative. It sounds like Perron could be cleared as soon as tomorrow. Let's hope it's nothing more than that
 
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