Blues Prospects Thread 2018-2019

[Novacain]

I would just like to say that Nolan Stevens, who is a very quality prospect, not even.being listed for oue top 10 is pretty nice.

 

[David Dennison]

Kyrou
Thomas
Bokk
Kostin
Walman
Mikolla
Sanford
Schmaltz
Blais
Foley

I don’t rate goalies and prefer upside to pretty much anything.

Bokk over Kostin? I see Kostin as closer to the NHL, a similar ceiling, and a higher floor.

 

[The Note in MI]

Bokk is Kyrou pt 2

 

[EastonBlues22]

Now that you explained the ranks it makes more sense. And is similar to how I would rank things, but therein lies the difficulty of “ranking” prospects, since there are many variables at play. For instance an entire ranking could be of upside, or chances of making the NHL and how soon, or even based on floor. Generally I think that people tend to carry upside as the largest value in this, and NHL readiness gets a portion, though probably a smaller amount than it should given the ultimate goal of a prospect is NHL readiness.

A prospect that never makes the NHL is worthless, but one that makes the NHL in a throwaway role isn't much better.

For example, what's the organizational value of a backup goalie? Assuming a drafted goalie makes it to the NHL while he's still on his ELC or a deal of similar value, that's costing the organization $700k to $925k. Hutton, a proven veteran backup goaltender with good career stats coming off a pretty good year, was brought in last year for $1.125 million. On top of that, he even provided top 10 production at the position in the league for that price.

The acquisition cost for Hutton was nothing, the financial cost over the cheapest internal option was less than half a million dollars, and there was clearly legitimate upside there as well even if you couldn't count on it. Brian Elliott cost $600k when we brought him in. Clearly not all backups are going to perform like those guys, but you can generally count on the options being relatively cheap and easy to acquire.

Fourth liners are in the same boat. Every non-ELC who we brought in from outside the organization (i.e. didn't draft and develop) to play on our 4th line last year made $1 million or less. One of them was even on a PTO with Vancouver when we signed him. We had a pretty good 4th line, and we didn't need to trade any assets or pay anyone higher than ELC money to make it happen because it's not that hard to find 4th liners via FA, and they're cheap.

Bottom pairing defenders might cost a little bit more, but generally not much. Bortuzzo re-signed with us as a UFA for $1.125 million. The expensive guys rounding out bottom pairings are typically guys who were playing higher at one point who have been passed up on the depth chart (like Gunnarsson). I'd rank them as slightly more valuable to an organization than 4th line forwards, but not that much.

In my opinion, prospects who safely project to fill those roles (backup goalies, 4th line forwards, bottom pairing defensemen), but who have their ceilings relatively capped at that point, should never be ranked over guys who have higher ceilings but more bust potential because a prospect who has a 10% chance of being a top 6 guy still carries far more potential value to an organization than one who has a 100% chance of being a 4th liner.

The tricky part is weighing someone like a guy with 30% chance of being a top 6 guy and a 70% chance of being nothing vs a guy with a 10% chance of being a top 6 guy, and 40% chance of being a 3rd liner, a 40% chance of being a 4th liner, and 10% chance of being nothing. Does the extra upside outweigh the marginal value gained from someone who might be a 3rd liner? I think solid arguments can be made in either direction.

 

[BlueDream]

Sanford turns 24 in November, he's not really that young anymore.

Barring some surprising late bloom, what he is now is probably what he is as a whole. He's not really a prospect anymore.

He’s more of a prospect than Schmaltz still IMO.

I wouldn’t even have Schmaltz in these lists anymore. He’s about to be 25.

Thomas
Kyrou
Husso
Kostin
Bokk
Walman
Foley
Sanford
Blais
Mikkola

Is probably how I’d rank them. Stevens, Fitzpatrick just miss out. Quality pool.

 

[Evocable Manager]

He’s more of a prospect than Schmaltz still IMO.

I wouldn’t even have Schmaltz in these lists anymore. He’s about to be 25.

Thomas
Kyrou
Husso
Kostin
Bokk
Walman
Foley
Sanford
Blais
Mikkola

Is probably how I’d rank them. Stevens, Fitzpatrick just miss out. Quality pool.

Oh I don't consider Schmaltz a prospect anymore either. At this point, Schmaltz should get every opportunity to make the team and be a regular on the third pair. Even if he has some bumps on the road, stick with him and if he truly doesn't have it, it's unlikely he ever does.

With Sanford you see what you have and where he fits in camp. But this a team that doesn't have as much luxury upfront as it does on the backend so if he's not getting it done, we need to find someone who can.

That's with the fact that I believe Schmaltz is a better player and has higher upside than Sanford.

 

[Frenzy31]

I am going to hold off on Ranking anyone until I see them in the prospect tournament this summer. It is really hard to put players in place without seeing them play live. Guys I am looking forward to seeing are JK, Thomas, Kostin, Foley, Stevens, Bokk (but he might not come over), Mikkola, and Noel. I am really wanting to see Noel play to see how much he has grown in the past year.

 

[tfriede2]

I am going to hold off on Ranking anyone until I see them in the prospect tournament this summer. It is really hard to put players in place without seeing them play live. Guys I am looking forward to seeing are JK, Thomas, Kostin, Foley, Stevens, Bokk (but he might not come over), Mikkola, and Noel. I am really wanting to see Noel play to see how much he has grown in the past year.

For some reason I haven't seen Kostin listed as attending the prospect camp - is he for sure attending? I don't see why he wouldn't.

Edit: nevermind, I see him on the roster now.

 

[Stealth JD]

The good news, if there is any, is that the 2019 draft looks like a good class to find a Center...if you're unfortunate enough to miss the playoffs. As things stand today, I'd give the Blues a 50/50 shot at being the holder of a top-15 draft pick. Seven of the top-13 prospects in Pronman's early 2019 draft preview are centers...so we've got that going for us.

Pronman: Way too early top 25 for the 2019 NHL draft

 

[Vladys Gumption]

JR just tweeted that we qualified everyone except Vannelli and Selman.

 

[OHLFan90]

Really like some of the late round picks the Blues have made the last few years. Trenton Bourque and |Tyler Tucker.


Tyler cracked my list here. Potential Steals From the 2018 NHL Draft (OHL Drafted Players)


I think this was a great pick and feel it will pay off down the line in St Louis!

Cheers.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

We added Josh Dunne (Jincy’s brother) to the prospect camp roster. He’s had a few good USHL years and is headed to Clarkson University in the fall.

I find it... disappointing that we aren’t bringing in bigger names like other teams are, but instead are focusing almost entirely on local and/or unheralded guys. At least last year we brought in Miereles. Maybe we just figured it wasn’t worth it? Idk, this whole Keith Tkachuk heel turn towards college players doesn’t make any sense to me yet. It seems like he’s gained a very loud voice in the room very quickly

 

[Stealth JD]

JR just tweeted that we qualified everyone except Vannelli and Selman.

Vannelli. lol.
Let's just hope we get a little more mileage out of Perunovich.

Is that "everyone" who was RFA, or just minor leaguers? Sort of surprised to see the Blues qualify Sundqvist, if it's the former, considering he was Thorburn-level bad.

 

[jbron]

I think your overreacting to Tkachuk and his voice and or college players. Tkachuk is a salesman and to think he would have that big of a voice actually discredits Bill Armstrong and the Blues scouts. Could he have gotten on the bandwagon of a prospect for sure? But I don't buy that he was the only voice that wanted a specific prospect.

Of the Blues picks made in the NHL Draft only Perunovich and McGing are college kids. Hofer (WHL), Laferriere ( QMJHL),Tucker (OHL)

I didn't like the Perunovich pick as I thought there were better prospects still on the board. But really, one pick doesn't define the draft nor a
case in drafting strategy or one persons influence.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Vannelli. lol.
Let's just hope we get a little more mileage out of Perunovich.

Is that "everyone" who was RFA, or just minor leaguers? Sort of surprised to see the Blues qualify Sundqvist, if it's the former, considering he was Thorburn-level bad.

 

[Oberyn]

With Vannelli not being qualified, we have absolutely nothing to show for from the 2013 draft. Definitely a forgettable one in Blues history.

 

[BlueDream]

With Vannelli not being qualified, we have absolutely nothing to show for from the 2013 draft. Definitely a forgettable one in Blues history.

Yep that one sucks. But with only 4 picks I guess it was bound to happen. Every team is gonna have at least one bad year.

Every other draft under BA has been great. He's gotten multiple hits in each one so I can't complain.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

Thomas
Kyrou
Kostin
Bokk
Husso

Schmaltz
Foley
Sanford
Mikkola
Walman


My 10.

I'm a big fan of not only your rankings but your groupings too.

You've got a top tier of guys with high impact talent that could be premier NHL players and a second tier of guys with a little less talent but with a chance to be long time solid supporting players.

You could definitely break it down further in order to provide more detail but this is nice, clean, and to the point.

 

[Captain Creampuff]

I'd rather put Fitzpatrick in the top 10 than Sanford. I dont see how Sanford is still a prospect but Thompson isn't.

 

[KirkOut]

I'm real interested to see which of the under the radar forward prospects end up finding a home in the NHL over the next few years. I'm guessing a least 2 of Stevens/Foley/Musil/Toropchenko/Poganski/Kaspick will be NHL regulars some day

 

[Ranksu]

The good news, if there is any, is that the 2019 draft looks like a good class to find a Center...if you're unfortunate enough to miss the playoffs. As things stand today, I'd give the Blues a 50/50 shot at being the holder of a top-15 draft pick. Seven of the top-13 prospects in Pronman's early 2019 draft preview are centers...so we've got that going for us.

Pronman: Way too early top 25 for the 2019 NHL draft

More then less we need to keep our 1st round pick at 2019 draft.

 

[Ranksu]

Schmaltz (24 old) and Sanford (23 old) are they Prospects anymore?

 

[EastonBlues22]

Schmaltz (24 old) and Sanford (23 old) are they Prospects anymore?

Neither has 60 games played at the NHL level, and both spent most of their time in the AHL last year. Why wouldn't they be considered prospects?

 

[Spektre]

Wonder if the Blues would give Smith-Pelly a look.

 

[stl76]

Wonder if the Blues would give Smith-Pelly a look.

Great playoff run aside, I don't see why they would. Top 6 is a much more pressing issue than bottom 6, and we have plenty of guys internally who are, or will soon be, fighting for bottom 6 minutes.

Also, if people are questioning Sanford being a prospect, I have to think DSP wouldn't qualify...