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Blues Forum Lounge (Home of All Things OT) - Part IX

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bleedblue1223 said:
BJ/Melvin sure, but Justin is a legit 3/4 hitter that we need.
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Well living down south I have been to and watch tons of Braves baseball and Justin was way too hot-cold for me. When he is cold, you can nearly guarantee he is going to strike out.

My point being for his salary and lack of consistent production, that money can be best spent elsewhere and give the Pham, Piscotty or Grichuk the opportunity to be the regular.
 
Lets not overrate Pham, he's a #5 at best. If Gordon was a little younger, he'd be the best target. A better, more consistent hitter version of Heyward, but he's going to be 32 at the start of next season.
 
Grichuk is gonna be the everyday CF and unless we make other moves Piscotty will be our 1B, and Pham should be nothing more than a bench guy
 
Tony Cruz traded to the Royals for Jose Martinez, minor league infielder I know absolutely nothing about
 
bleedblue1223 said:
Too bad they didn't go harder for Byung Ho Park, he just signed for peanuts.
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The twins did have to pay a solid posting fee, but the guy is a major risk in terms of what he'd be able to accomplish in the MLB. Korea is notoriously known for being hitter friendly, and the upside with a guy like Park isn't there IMO. They need someone safe like Davis, or Upton if they want to compete with the Cubs in the division.
 
Daley Tarasenkshow said:
The twins did have to pay a solid posting fee, but the guy is a major risk in terms of what he'd be able to accomplish in the MLB. Korea is notoriously known for being hitter friendly, and the upside with a guy like Park isn't there IMO. They need someone safe like Davis, or Upton if they want to compete with the Cubs in the division.
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His numbers will definitely go down, similar to Jung Ho Park, but even accounting for that and the posting fee, it's still cheap. He'd be a qualot platoon option that has the potential as a starter.
 
bleedblue1223 said:
His numbers will definitely go down, similar to Jung Ho Park, but even accounting for that and the posting fee, it's still cheap. He'd be a qualot platoon option that has the potential as a starter.
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Well of course he didn't sign for much, the Twins were the only team that could negotiate with him, it was take the deal or stay in Korea. The system is a joke
 
SirPaste said:
Well of course he didn't sign for much, the Twins were the only team that could negotiate with him, it was take the deal or stay in Korea. The system is a joke
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I'm including the posting fee in my definition of peanuts.

It's why I think we should go after Kenta Maeda. He could have a total commitment of 80 million over 5 years, and he'll be 28 next season. We'd be getting good years, and the money will be cheaper than the other options in his tier.
 
bleedblue1223 said:
I'm including the posting fee in my definition of peanuts.

It's why I think we should go after Kenta Maeda. He could have a total commitment of 80 million over 5 years, and he'll be 28 next season. We'd be getting good years, and the money will be cheaper than the other options in his tier.
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I'd rather get guys proven in the MLB, the Cards aren't the Blues they have plenty of money to spend.
 
It really sucks that Zimmermann signed first, he was the perfect backup option to Price. Now we are left with a bunch of flawed options. I like Chen the best of what's left, he's at least a consistent guy that will give a lot of quality starts.
 
These rumors of Heyward possibly getting 300 M is insane. I'm fully in the re-sign Heyward camp, but not at that number. Or even close to that really. Great player, but that's MVP candidate dollars.
 
There was an article of a guy saying he is worth 300+, but the numbers he was using was insane. That same formula would've had Harper worth about $65 million this past season. He's not even a $20+ million guy. The only reason he gets this money is because of his age. If we were rating players, Cespedes and Gordon would both be ahead, and I'd argue Upton as well. Their AAV should be as much or higher, but with less term. The only thing that Heyward should get more in is term, not money per year.

Baseball gets crazy with some stat nerds. It's not as simple as picking a $ value to a win, and then multiplying it by their WAR.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/01/jason-heyward-free-agency-whats-he-really-worth
 
bleedblue1223 said:
I'm including the posting fee in my definition of peanuts.

It's why I think we should go after Kenta Maeda. He could have a total commitment of 80 million over 5 years, and he'll be 28 next season. We'd be getting good years, and the money will be cheaper than the other options in his tier.
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I just don't see the need to sign a player like Maeda who's going to bring some sort of risk involved. I'd rather pursue a bonafide MLB player in trade or free agency.
 
bleedblue1223 said:
There was an article of a guy saying he is worth 300+, but the numbers he was using was insane. That same formula would've had Harper worth about $65 million this past season. He's not even a $20+ million guy. The only reason he gets this money is because of his age. If we were rating players, Cespedes and Gordon would both be ahead, and I'd argue Upton as well. Their AAV should be as much or higher, but with less term. The only thing that Heyward should get more in is term, not money per year.

Baseball gets crazy with some stat nerds. It's not as simple as picking a $ value to a win, and then multiplying it by their WAR.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/01/jason-heyward-free-agency-whats-he-really-worth
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What is so wrong with this? When you are looking at the aggregate impact of a player on a team potentially over 10 seasons, you have to assess their value in a vacuum, what is his value going to be to the team? It may seem like a simple calculation, but the real evaluation is how they estimate the value of a win and how they estimate the production/value.

Its just a cost benefit analysis. If I am deciding whether or not to build a 300m hotel, how do I determine if I build it or not? I estimate how much I can make over time and how much it will cost. The comparison is the simple part, but my estimates (occupancy, upkeep, cost to build, rates I can charge, location,etc.) determines if you come out ahead or not.
 
When the calculation has Harper worth 65 million last year, then you know it's flawed. He's not worth that in win or revenue generated.
 
bleedblue1223 said:
There was an article of a guy saying he is worth 300+, but the numbers he was using was insane. That same formula would've had Harper worth about $65 million this past season. He's not even a $20+ million guy. The only reason he gets this money is because of his age. If we were rating players, Cespedes and Gordon would both be ahead, and I'd argue Upton as well. Their AAV should be as much or higher, but with less term. The only thing that Heyward should get more in is term, not money per year.

Baseball gets crazy with some stat nerds. It's not as simple as picking a $ value to a win, and then multiplying it by their WAR.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/01/jason-heyward-free-agency-whats-he-really-worth
Click to expand...

I'd much rather have Heyward than Cespedes or Gordon.
 
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