Blues 2024 Off-Season Trade Proposals Thread

[Brian39]

You're not getting a young potential top pairing D for 2 mediocre players in their 30s. It's like if Minnesota offered us Foligno and Bogosian for Neighbours.

Relevant portions from my post:

I'd start the conversation by offering Leddy and Saad (both with 50% retention)...That alone shouldn't get it done, but I do think that two good, cheap vets is a pretty sizeable amount of value for a team in their position. I'd try very hard to hold onto our 2025 1st. Even with robust protection, we're still too young/raw/middling for me to view that pick as anything but extremely valuable. But we have a deep prospect pool and I'd dip into it as an addition to Leddy/Saad if we could land Harley (with the intention of an 8 year extension).

So yes, we agree that those two players doesn't get it done without additional assets going to Dallas

That said, Saad/Leddy aren't remotely comparable players/assets to Foligno/Bogo.

Foligno is two seasons removed from his last 20+ goal season (which is the lone 20 goal season in his career). Saad has 7 career 20+ goal seasons, including last year where he had 26. Foligno has had trouble staying healthy for years now and has 17 goals and 43 points in his last 2 seasons combined (120 total games). Saad had 26 goals and 42 points last season (82 games). Foligno has 126 career goals and 294 points in 798 career NHL games. Saad is over a year younger than Foligno and has 253 career goals and 499 career points in 863 career games. There is a large gap in ability between Saad and Foligno. Additionally, Saad has 2 years left at $4.5M AAV while Foligno has 4 years left at $4M AAV. If you value playoff experience/success, Saad has 27 playoff goals, 55 playoff points, 2 Cup rings and 6 instances playing beyond the 1st round. Foligno has 2 goals, 7 points and has never made it out of the first round in 5 attempts.

Saad was tied for 74th in goals and was tied for 43rd in even strength goals last year. In his 3 years with the Blues he is 85th in goals and 87th in even strength goals.

Your assessment of Saad the player is way, way off if you believe Foligno is a comp or you believe he is just a mediocre player. Saad is very, very much the kind of guy contenders want in their middle 6 as secondary scoring threats and $2M x 2 is well below the market rate for such a guy.

The same can be said about Leddy and Bogo. Bogo has been a journeyman for years now. His 18:16 a night last season as Minnesota's 5th D man (4th after Spurgeon went down with injury) is the most he's played per night since 2018/19. He wasn't able to crack Tampa's lineup for the first month of the season, which is what prompted them to trade him to Minnesota at all. From 2019/20 through 2022/23, he played less than 17 minutes a night for all of Buffalo, Tampa, and Toronto. He hasn't had 20+ points since 2015/16. He's a bottom pair guy who can slide into the #4 role if a real top 4 D man gets injured.

Meanwhile, Leddy has played 21+ minutes a night for 9 straight seasons across 3 different organizations. He's had 20+ points for 11 straight seasons. His 28 points last season is 1 more than Bogo has in his last 3 seasons combined. He has had success in the clear top pair role he's played in St. Louis and is a clear top 4 D man.

Leddy returned a 2nd round pick in 2021 when he had 1 year left at $5.5M AAV (and $7M in real dollars owed). Later that year at the deadline, Detroit flipped him (with 50% retention) for a 2nd and a couple expendable roster players. That's tangible value. s mentioned above, Bogo was traded for a 7th round pick last season.

Your assessment of Leddy/Saad as mediocre players comparable to these guys isn't close to reality. Neither of them are in our long term plans due to age, but they are currently guys who can genuinely contribute as good (not great) players. Both of them can demonstrably fill roles in the top half of the lineup and that absolutely has value at $2M and $2.25M (for 2 years) to a contender in a cap crunch. Again, almost certainly not enough value to be the only assets in a deal for a guy like Harley. But you are wildly underestimating the value of cheap, veteran 25+ goal scorers and top 4 D men.

I firmly believe that Dallas will be able to work out a deal with Harley to keep him and run a 21 or 22 man roster this year. A failure to get that accomplished is the only thing that would lead to them remotely considering trading him and I think the odds of that are below 10%. However, in the unlikely scenario where they do shop him around, they will not be interested in a pure futures package and they will be unable to take on substantial salary since that is the entire reason they couldn't get a deal done with Harley. They would be looking for quality NHL players who are also cheap. Leddy and Saad both fit that bill and there is a pretty high likelihood that they wouldn't have any luck finding a better 'replacement' for Harley's role than Leddy given their constraints.

 

[Thallis]

Relevant portions from my post:

I'd start the conversation by offering Leddy and Saad (both with 50% retention)...That alone shouldn't get it done, but I do think that two good, cheap vets is a pretty sizeable amount of value for a team in their position. I'd try very hard to hold onto our 2025 1st. Even with robust protection, we're still too young/raw/middling for me to view that pick as anything but extremely valuable. But we have a deep prospect pool and I'd dip into it as an addition to Leddy/Saad if we could land Harley (with the intention of an 8 year extension).

So yes, we agree that those two players doesn't get it done without additional assets going to Dallas

That said, Saad/Leddy aren't remotely comparable players/assets to Foligno/Bogo.

Foligno is two seasons removed from his last 20+ goal season (which is the lone 20 goal season in his career). Saad has 7 career 20+ goal seasons, including last year where he had 26. Foligno has had trouble staying healthy for years now and has 17 goals and 43 points in his last 2 seasons combined (120 total games). Saad had 26 goals and 42 points last season (82 games). Foligno has 126 career goals and 294 points in 798 career NHL games. Saad is over a year younger than Foligno and has 253 career goals and 499 career points in 863 career games. There is a large gap in ability between Saad and Foligno. Additionally, Saad has 2 years left at $4.5M AAV while Foligno has 4 years left at $4M AAV. If you value playoff experience/success, Saad has 27 playoff goals, 55 playoff points, 2 Cup rings and 6 instances playing beyond the 1st round. Foligno has 2 goals, 7 points and has never made it out of the first round in 5 attempts.

Saad was tied for 74th in goals and was tied for 43rd in even strength goals last year. In his 3 years with the Blues he is 85th in goals and 87th in even strength goals.

Your assessment of Saad the player is way, way off if you believe Foligno is a comp or you believe he is just a mediocre player. Saad is very, very much the kind of guy contenders want in their middle 6 as secondary scoring threats and $2M x 2 is well below the market rate for such a guy.

The same can be said about Leddy and Bogo. Bogo has been a journeyman for years now. His 18:16 a night last season as Minnesota's 5th D man (4th after Spurgeon went down with injury) is the most he's played per night since 2018/19. He wasn't able to crack Tampa's lineup for the first month of the season, which is what prompted them to trade him to Minnesota at all. From 2019/20 through 2022/23, he played less than 17 minutes a night for all of Buffalo, Tampa, and Toronto. He hasn't had 20+ points since 2015/16. He's a bottom pair guy who can slide into the #4 role if a real top 4 D man gets injured.

Meanwhile, Leddy has played 21+ minutes a night for 9 straight seasons across 3 different organizations. He's had 20+ points for 11 straight seasons. His 28 points last season is 1 more than Bogo has in his last 3 seasons combined. He has had success in the clear top pair role he's played in St. Louis and is a clear top 4 D man.

Leddy returned a 2nd round pick in 2021 when he had 1 year left at $5.5M AAV (and $7M in real dollars owed). Later that year at the deadline, Detroit flipped him (with 50% retention) for a 2nd and a couple expendable roster players. That's tangible value. s mentioned above, Bogo was traded for a 7th round pick last season.

Your assessment of Leddy/Saad as mediocre players comparable to these guys isn't close to reality. Neither of them are in our long term plans due to age, but they are currently guys who can genuinely contribute as good (not great) players. Both of them can demonstrably fill roles in the top half of the lineup and that absolutely has value at $2M and $2.25M (for 2 years) to a contender in a cap crunch. Again, almost certainly not enough value to be the only assets in a deal for a guy like Harley. But you are wildly underestimating the value of cheap, veteran 25+ goal scorers and top 4 D men.

I firmly believe that Dallas will be able to work out a deal with Harley to keep him and run a 21 or 22 man roster this year. A failure to get that accomplished is the only thing that would lead to them remotely considering trading him and I think the odds of that are below 10%. However, in the unlikely scenario where they do shop him around, they will not be interested in a pure futures package and they will be unable to take on substantial salary since that is the entire reason they couldn't get a deal done with Harley. They would be looking for quality NHL players who are also cheap. Leddy and Saad both fit that bill and there is a pretty high likelihood that they wouldn't have any luck finding a better 'replacement' for Harley's role than Leddy given their constraints.

Wow this is a lot effort to miss the point. The point is that you cannot start the conversation with Saad and Leddy as they are aging, mediocre players you can find easily without spending a premium asset like Harley for. If Harley were to become available, the package would return top of the lineup types. The two you mentioned are as comparable to Harley as the two I mentioned are comparable to Neighbours. You would not get a first rounder for either player at the deadline, they're not going to be interesting pieces in return for a young stud defenseman.

 

[TheOrganist]

Wow this is a lot effort to miss the point. The point is that you cannot start the conversation with Saad and Leddy as they are aging, mediocre players you can find easily without spending a premium asset like Harley for. If Harley were to become available, the package would return top of the lineup types. The two you mentioned are as comparable to Harley as the two I mentioned are comparable to Neighbours. You would not get a first rounder for either player at the deadline, they're not going to be interesting pieces in return for a young stud defenseman.

I think you’re slightly underselling Leddy but agree with the general notion that Leddy, Saad and a B prospect would be a fairly laughable offer from Dallas’s perspective.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

If Krug doesn't play this season Blues are gonna have a TON of capspace for the Trade Deadline. would like to see the Blues be a 3rd party for some extra draft picks.

 

[Brian39]

Wow this is a lot effort to miss the point. The point is that you cannot start the conversation with Saad and Leddy as they are aging, mediocre players you can find easily without spending a premium asset like Harley for. If Harley were to become available, the package would return top of the lineup types. The two you mentioned are as comparable to Harley as the two I mentioned are comparable to Neighbours. You would not get a first rounder for either player at the deadline, they're not going to be interesting pieces in return for a young stud defenseman.

I didn't miss your point. I disagree with your point that Leddy and Saad are mediocre. And I very much disagree that you can easily find comparable players without spending a premium asset when you don't have cap space to spend more than $2-3M.

Nick Leddy is a legit top 4 D man on a good team. He's done a solid job as a top pair D man on a bad team. The notion that he wouldn't return a 1st rounder with 50% retention is absurd. Sean Walker with a $2.65M cap hit returned a 1st at the deadline last year as a pending UFA. Tanev with a $2.25M cap hit returned Calgary a 2nd rounder and a 20 year old D prospect who was drafted 48th overall. He was also a pending UFA.

Top 4 D that cost you less than $3M against the cap don't come cheap. Especially when it is 2 years of the guy being cheap. I strongly, strongly disagree with your point that he is a mediocre player that you can get easily. You can get a guy like him easily if you can eat a $5-6M cap hit, but Dallas can't do that.

Saad is a good middle 6 player who can provide 25 goals without being on a top PP unit. That is not mediocre. He's not as valuable as Leddy and I doubt he'd return a 1st on his own. But he would absolutely return a 2nd and I think there is a decent chance that he'd return a 2nd plus something of lesser value if you're talking about retaining 50% for 2 years. Wennberg returned a 2nd and a 4th at the deadline last year. So did Mantha. Both were pending UFAs and both have a notably less consistent track record of production than Saad.

The 'market value' for 2 years of current-aged Leddy and Saad for a combined $4.25M is a nice little haul of assets. Not two 1sts, but not less than a 1st and a 2nd. They are exactly the type of guys contenders without cap space wind up paying valuable assets to acquire.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I didn't miss your point. I disagree with your point that Leddy and Saad are mediocre. And I very much disagree that you can easily find comparable players without spending a premium asset when you don't have cap space to spend more than $2-3M.

Nick Leddy is a legit top 4 D man on a good team. He's done a solid job as a top pair D man on a bad team. The notion that he wouldn't return a 1st rounder with 50% retention is absurd. Sean Walker with a $2.65M cap hit returned a 1st at the deadline last year as a pending UFA. Tanev with a $2.25M cap hit returned Calgary a 2nd rounder and a 20 year old D prospect who was drafted 48th overall. He was also a pending UFA.

Top 4 D that cost you less than $3M against the cap don't come cheap. Especially when it is 2 years of the guy being cheap. I strongly, strongly disagree with your point that he is a mediocre player that you can get easily. You can get a guy like him easily if you can eat a $5-6M cap hit, but Dallas can't do that.

Saad is a good middle 6 player who can provide 25 goals without being on a top PP unit. That is not mediocre. He's not as valuable as Leddy and I doubt he'd return a 1st on his own. But he would absolutely return a 2nd and I think there is a decent chance that he'd return a 2nd plus something of lesser value if you're talking about retaining 50% for 2 years. Wennberg returned a 2nd and a 4th at the deadline last year. So did Mantha. Both were pending UFAs and both have a notably less consistent track record of production than Saad.

The 'market value' for 2 years of current-aged Leddy and Saad for a combined $4.25M is a nice little haul of assets. Not two 1sts, but not less than a 1st and a 2nd.

I love your post for what it is. It's fun to try to come up with something that makes sense and to identify those areas of value. Transaction proposals are often easy and straightforward, while others are complex with the whole 'moving parts' thing and all that. Being perceptive and intuitive regarding the others' motivations is crucial to understanding value.

There's some missing nuance in your argument, but I don't feel like spending the brain juice to point it out. But I will say that we are isolated in a vacuum without any personal context. Good stuff, though. Fun thought exercises.

Carry on.

 

[Renard]

It's flat out irresponsible to start Dvorsky in the NHL out of camp even if he looks great. He's already put himself in a bad spot developmentally once and was fortunate the Blues saved his season quickly with the move to the OHL. He needs reps outside of the spotlight with an AHL team that can provide the opportunity for upward mobility in the lineup in an emergent situation for him. It doesn't get any better than that for a 19 year old kid trying to acclimate to NA pro hockey from a development perspective. He could go from 3C to 1C inside a few weeks in that environment, I'm not suggesting he will but the point is it's baked into the cake that he could. Dominating the AHL is typically the point where you start thinking about bringing a player that young up, I'd want him to play at least 40 AHL games even if he's at the domination level the entire 40 just so he gets a minimum amount of AHL reps before NHL play. So sometime in 2025 is the earliest I'd want to see him and personally I'd prefer we just leave him the hell alone for 60+ AHL games then start integrating him for the last quarter or so of the season

Brian Sutter and Bernie Federko both played half a season in the minors before joining the Blues in mid season. They remained with Blues for the next fifteen years or so.

I don't expect Dvorsky to make the team out of training camp. But I'd love to see him as our 2nd line center in January 2025.

 

[TurgPavs]

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out over the next 8-10 months, with the Blues players who currently have a NTC.

CP is the only player who's full no Trade Clause doesn't change over the next year.
Thomas and Kyrou both go from have no trade clauses to Full NTC on July 1
Buch moves from a 12 No Trade List to a Full NTC on July 1

Scheen, Faulk, and Krug all go from a Full NTC to a 15 Team No Trade List on July 1
Saad goes to a 12 Team No Trade List
Leddy goes to a 16 Trade List
Binny goes to a 18 Team No Trade List on July 1, then a 14 Team No Trade List in 2026-27, and a 10 Team No Trade List in 2027-28

I can see the Blues moving on from several of Scheen, Saad, Faulk, and Leddy, next summer. Would love to see the Blues clear some cap space and make a run a 2025 UFA Shea Theodore.

 

[Mike Liut]

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out over the next 8-10 months, with the Blues players who currently have a NTC.

CP is the only player who's full no Trade Clause doesn't change over the next year.
Thomas and Kyrou both go from have no trade clauses to Full NTC on July 1
Buch moves from a 12 No Trade List to a Full NTC on July 1

Scheen, Faulk, and Krug all go from a Full NTC to a 15 Team No Trade List on July 1
Saad goes to a 12 Team No Trade List
Leddy goes to a 16 Trade List
Binny goes to a 18 Team No Trade List on July 1, then a 14 Team No Trade List in 2026-27, and a 10 Team No Trade List in 2027-28

I can see the Blues moving on from several of Scheen, Saad, Faulk, and Leddy, next summer. Would love to see the Blues clear some cap space and make a run a 2025 UFA Shea Theodore.

I’m ok with another year of them, but I’d love to move soon. Not an easy task though, since they are all on the downside of their careers.

 

[Brian39]

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out over the next 8-10 months, with the Blues players who currently have a NTC.

CP is the only player who's full no Trade Clause doesn't change over the next year.
Thomas and Kyrou both go from have no trade clauses to Full NTC on July 1
Buch moves from a 12 No Trade List to a Full NTC on July 1

Scheen, Faulk, and Krug all go from a Full NTC to a 15 Team No Trade List on July 1
Saad goes to a 12 Team No Trade List
Leddy goes to a 16 Trade List
Binny goes to a 18 Team No Trade List on July 1, then a 14 Team No Trade List in 2026-27, and a 10 Team No Trade List in 2027-28

I can see the Blues moving on from several of Scheen, Saad, Faulk, and Leddy, next summer. Would love to see the Blues clear some cap space and make a run a 2025 UFA Shea Theodore.

Great breakdown.

I wouldn't be surprised if Buch currently has a full NTC. You are allowed to modify the trade protection of an existing deal when you sign an early extension and it is pretty common practice to do so. Capfriendly used to do a good job publishing when this happened, but I don't trust any of the 'new' cap sites to accurately reflect this info yet. Either way, I'd be shocked if we traded Buch before his extension kicks in.

 

[bleedblue1223]

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out over the next 8-10 months, with the Blues players who currently have a NTC.

CP is the only player who's full no Trade Clause doesn't change over the next year.
Thomas and Kyrou both go from have no trade clauses to Full NTC on July 1
Buch moves from a 12 No Trade List to a Full NTC on July 1

Scheen, Faulk, and Krug all go from a Full NTC to a 15 Team No Trade List on July 1
Saad goes to a 12 Team No Trade List
Leddy goes to a 16 Trade List
Binny goes to a 18 Team No Trade List on July 1, then a 14 Team No Trade List in 2026-27, and a 10 Team No Trade List in 2027-28

I can see the Blues moving on from several of Scheen, Saad, Faulk, and Leddy, next summer. Would love to see the Blues clear some cap space and make a run a 2025 UFA Shea Theodore.

Agreed. I could see the plan being to move out a few of the pieces, clear cap space, and then be pretty aggressive with someone like Theodore as you mention. We were pretty aggressive with adding picks, prospects, and young players. Sounds like we were in on Necas to some degree, so I do think Army/Steen would like to pull off some sort of Fiala type move to add a higher end piece that's around Thomas' age or at least still has plenty of runway left in their career.

 

[Shwabeal]

Great breakdown.

I wouldn't be surprised if Buch currently has a full NTC. You are allowed to modify the trade protection of an existing deal when you sign an early extension and it is pretty common practice to do so. Capfriendly used to do a good job publishing when this happened, but I don't trust any of the 'new' cap sites to accurately reflect this info yet. Either way, I'd be shocked if we traded Buch before his extension kicks in.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808223895675142404

According to this tweet by Strickland, they did add the full NTC to the last year of his existing contract.

 

[TurgPavs]

Brian Sutter and Bernie Federko both played half a season in the minors before joining the Blues in mid season. They remained with Blues for the next fifteen years or so.

I don't expect Dvorsky to make the team out of training camp. But I'd love to see him as our 2nd line center in January 2025.

Crazy to think that Robert Thomas has never played a game in the AHL.
I dont think Fabbri played many before jumping into the NHL either.

 

[TurgPavs]

I want to see the Blues send an offer sheet for Bouchard next summer and really PO Edmonton.
9.5 AAV over a 7 year deal. What's that compensation? 2 Firsts 1 Second and 1 Third.....no problem with that.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I want to see the Blues send an offer sheet for Bouchard next summer and really PO Edmonton.
9.5 AAV over a 7 year deal. What's that compensation? 2 Firsts 1 Second and 1 Third.....no problem with that.

4 firsts. Anything over 5 years is YearsxAAV/5 which would be 13mil+.

 

[Brian39]

Crazy to think that Robert Thomas has never played a game in the AHL.
I dont think Fabbri played many before jumping into the NHL either.

Fabbri just played a handful of AHL games after his junior season ended in his D+1 season (2014/15). Then he made the NHL team out of camp in his D+2 season (2015/16). His only other career AHL games came 3 years later on a conditioning stint.

 

[Brian39]

I want to see the Blues send an offer sheet for Bouchard next summer and really PO Edmonton.
9.5 AAV over a 7 year deal. What's that compensation? 2 Firsts 1 Second and 1 Third.....no problem with that.

We would have to make it a 5 year deal to avoid giving up four 1st round picks as @Linkens Mastery pointed out.

I don't think Edmonton will let him get to free agency and if they do I assume that they will leave enough cap space to match an AAV less than $10M. Realistically, Bouchard probably isn't a good offer sheet candidate. He very well might not be interested in signing anything below the tier of four 1st compensation and he might be better served simply going to arbitration and taking short term deals to hit UFA at 27.

 

[bleedblue1223]

4 firsts. Anything over 5 years is YearsxAAV/5 which would be 13mil+.

Right, which is one of the reasons offer sheets are less likely to work on the big players. Broberg and Holloway are kind of the sweet spot to attack. You don't have to give crazy compensation, and if you have the cap space, you can overpay in the short-term. A guy like Bouchard will value the term in any deal.

Those 5 year offer-sheets are probably more of what GMs don't like. Signed where there is little chance for the player to actually leave, and it just results in the player gaining UFA status faster.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Crazy to think that Robert Thomas has never played a game in the AHL.
I dont think Fabbri played many before jumping into the NHL either.

Same with DP57.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Same with DP57.

Parayko also played very few AHL games. But that was also during the same year he left college (2014-15) and the very next year he was an everyday NHLer

 

[TurgPavs]

We would have to make it a 5 year deal to avoid giving up four 1st round picks as @Linkens Mastery pointed out.

I don't think Edmonton will let him get to free agency and if they do I assume that they will leave enough cap space to match an AAV less than $10M. Realistically, Bouchard probably isn't a good offer sheet candidate. He very well might not be interested in signing anything below the tier of four 1st compensation and he might be better served simply going to arbitration and taking short term deals to hit UFA at 27.

I should have been a little more clear, I would only like to see the reaction of the Edmonton fan base if the Blues did this.
Not sure that would be a great move for the Blues.

 

[bleedblue1223]

NHL Rumors: The Calgary Flames are Still Open for Business - NHL Rumors

Pagnotta thinks we were discussing Weegar with the Flames earlier in the summer. I do think it's more of Army was talking to anyone and everyone looking for the best option possible, but still somewhat interesting.

 

[Xerloris]

NHL Rumors: The Calgary Flames are Still Open for Business - NHL Rumors

Pagnotta thinks we were discussing Weegar with the Flames earlier in the summer. I do think it's more of Army was talking to anyone and everyone looking for the best option possible, but still somewhat interesting.

I would have liked Weeger but I'm happy with the way things went.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Weegar would’ve been an odd acquisition depending on the price.

On one hand if we moved the Jiricek pick our were kind of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

If we would’ve moved out a contract for him, I’m not sure how that would’ve worked.

Hindsight is 20/20 but given what the direction Army’s been talking about for the past year or so, Broberg and Holloway falling in our laps certainly seems like a better plan even if neither may make the same impact Weegar does.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

With Laine being traded and the very unfortunate passing of Johnny hockey(RIP), i wonder if this would open up the possibility of a deal with Columbus around Kyrou for David Jiricek+. Losing both those guy from their roster in one offseason is brutal, and seems like they would be willing to listen on deals for NHL scoring. Im not an avid "must trade Kyrou guy" but securing another young D with top pairing upside to grow with our youth core could be a move worth exploring.