Blues 2024 Off-Season Trade Proposals Thread

[Celtic Note]

Great post, but I did want to note that it is pretty rare for contenders and eventual winners to check every box. This checklist comes from the Athletic and last year's article had a pretty good breakdown on it.

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Our 2019 team, the Pens 2016 team, and last year's Knights were the only Cup winners that were at least 'passable, but below average vs other champs' in each category (their data starts with the 2010 Hawks). The other 11 Cup winners all had at least one category were they were 'entirely below the range.' We had 4 'passable but below average' guys on our team and I'd wager that at least one (like our #4 D man) were very close to the cutoff for passability.

Additionally, the metrics they use for past winners is how players performed in the playoffs where the team won, not long term or expected performance. I think there are a lot of instances where these winners wound up checking a few boxes because guys played the best hockey of their career at the right time even though they weren't traditionally that level of player. This makes a lot of winners retroactively look like they 'check more boxes' than they probably do.

Petro on our 2019 team was rated higher than Doughty in either Cup run, Keith in two of their 3 Cup runs, and Hedman in 2021. Long term, he's not that guy.

ROR was rated higher than Boston's best center in 2011, Kopitar in 2012, Toews in 2015, Backstrom in 2018, and anyone Tampa had for either run.

I'm not at all trying to be critical of the exercise, but I do think it is important to realize that basically every great team falls short of the checklist the year they win the Cup and even further short year-over-year.

Something to note from this matrix that I think we all know, every single team (sans the 2012 King which had Doughty if I am not mistaken…so count them too in my book) had at least a passable, elite D. So, simply adding a top paring LHD doesn’t cut it unless we are able to buck the trend, which I don’t think we have enough elite players in other areas to overcompensate for that deficiency.

 

[Brian39]

Something to note from this matrix that I think we all know, every single team (sans the 2012 King which had Doughty if I am not mistaken…so count them too in my book) had at least a passable, elite D. So, simply adding a top paring LHD doesn’t cut it unless we are able to buck the trend, which I don’t think we have enough elite players in other areas to overcompensate for that deficiency.

But again, they each had guys who played like that during the playoffs. Not an actual passable elite D on the roster.

In 2017 the Pens players who checked the 'elite D and '#1 D' boxes for the Pens were Brian Dumoulin and Ron Hainsey.

In 2018 the 4 D who checked the elite, #1, and two 'top pair' boxes were John Carlsson, Mat Niskanen, Dmitri Orlov, and Michale Kempny (or Brooks Orpik depddning on who they counted as their #4).

There is a big, big difference between 'guys on their roster played like that at the right time' and 'they actually had truly elite guys on the roster.' I don't disagree about the need for difference makers on D, but I don't agree that this list shows that adding a top pair guy wouldn't be enough.

FWIW, Parayko grading as 'exceeding' #1 D status in 2019 suggests that he would have checked the elite box that year.

 

[Celtic Note]

But again, they each had guys who played like that during the playoffs. Not an actual passable elite D on the roster.

In 2017 the Pens players who checked the 'elite D and '#1 D' boxes for the Pens were Brian Dumoulin and Ron Hainsey.

In 2018 the 4 D who checked the elite, #1, and two 'top pair' boxes were John Carlsson, Mat Niskanen, Dmitri Orlov, and Michale Kempny (or Brooks Orpik depddning on who they counted as their #4).

There is a big, big difference between 'guys on their roster played like that at the right time' and 'they actually had truly elite guys on the roster.' I don't disagree about the need for difference makers on D, but I don't agree that this list shows that adding a top pair guy wouldn't be enough.

FWIW, Parayko grading as 'exceeding' #1 D status in 2019 suggests that he would have checked the elite box that year.

Both teams referenced also had generational talents (nearly two for Pittsburgh). So if we get one of those, then I would be more confident that not having a true elite D meant we could contend.

Edit: I get that we can have guys get hot at the right time to overcome issues we may have. Cup teams need guys that can elevate their games. However, there has to be exceptional players elsewhere to cover for major compositional issues. As we are currently built, we already need overcompensation all over the roster to cover all the holes aside from at goalie. Even then we need goalies to play damn near exceptional to be competitive.

The Pens and Caps had generational talents to cover up their holes. We have no one remotely close.

Also, our offense doesn’t play defense well enough to overcome a lack of elite D and neither does our D themselves. On top of that our offense isn’t productive enough to cover us not being great defensively. Maybe that changes over time, but I don’t see it next year at the very least…even with additions to the roster.

If we filled out this matrix with where we are today, where we would be if we added a #2C and a top 4 LHD and then again out into the future, how many boxes do we fill? I don’t think we can fill the elite D box, because we have no idea if some random dude that has no business being expected to play elite D for months to be considered a check mark. That’s a buy a powerball ticket and cross your fingers level of hope (exaggerating of course, but only because lottery odds are so terrible).

To me if you are not checking a majority of those boxes, particularly the top end ones, then all we are riding into the playoffs with is a hope and a prayer.

 

[Mike Liut]

My BT offer

2024 1st
2024 2nd
2024 2nd
2025 1st

Who says no?

 

[LogosBlue]

My BT offer

2024 1st
2024 2nd
2024 2nd
2025 1st

Who says no?

I wouldn't give up that much for Brady and i'd be upset if DA did.

 

[PocketNines]

My BT offer

2024 1st
2024 2nd
2024 2nd
2025 1st

Who says no?

Why would you empty the upcoming futures cupboard to bolster a forward core in a huge "finishing move" kind of trade?

If they had a rock solid D to go along with the goaltending they already have, then you'd be looking at a bold move to get a core forward kind of deal, but that is not the timing that this franchise is currently in. And this proposal makes it less likely that they can draft a top defenseman or swing a deal for a top defensive prospect.

 

[Majorityof1]

My BT offer

2024 1st
2024 2nd
2024 2nd
2025 1st

Who says no?

They say no, There might be a curse word in there somewhere.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

My BT offer

2024 1st
2024 2nd
2024 2nd
2025 1st

Who says no?

Both teams. Ottawa isn't going to trade BT for all futures and the Blues arent going to empty the cupboard of futures for a trade when they know they are not a contender. There really is not a deal I can see happening with Brady coming to the Blues.

As much as this fanbase hates Kyrou and want to trade him for Brady we are not in a position to trade him AND multiple other assets for Brady. Especially when we have multiple other issues that are much more pressing like Center depth and the defense.

 

[Mike Liut]

Why would you empty the upcoming futures cupboard to bolster a forward core in a huge "finishing move" kind of trade?

If they had a rock solid D to go along with the goaltending they already have, then you'd be looking at a bold move to get a core forward kind of deal, but that is not the timing that this franchise is currently in. And this proposal makes it less likely that they can draft a top defenseman or swing a deal for a top defensive prospect.

I wouldn't give up that much for Brady and i'd be upset if DA did.

I don’t think it’s all that much tbh. #16 and two 2nds in this years draft which isn’t that strong of a draft outside of that top 10 and next years 1st will be in the 20’s.

 

[PocketNines]

next year's first will be in the 20s, why?

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Hot take: We found our Brady Tkachuk for a fraction of the price (and PIMs) in Jake Neighbours.

 

[Mike Liut]

next year's first will be in the 20s, why?

Because we are trending that way

Hot take: We found our Brady Tkachuk for a fraction of the price (and PIMs) in Jake Neighbours.

Imagine both on the Blues

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Because we are trending that way



Imagine both on the Blues

How are we trending that way? All year long you've been talking about how we are going to be bad for years and now we're trending to be a top 10 team in the league?

 

[Mike Liut]

How are we trending that way? All year long you've been talking about how we are going to be bad for years and now we're trending to be a top 10 team in the league?

92 points after a brutal start to the season.
Adding BT
Neighbors, Bolduc, Kessel, Hofer taking more steps
Getting swept by SJ
Hiring a better HC

I could easily see 10 more points

 

[Linkens Mastery]

92 points after a brutal start to the season.
Adding BT
Neighbors, Bolduc, Kessel, Hofer taking more steps
Getting swept by SJ
Hiring a better HC

I could easily see 10 more points

We highly overachieved this season with OT wins and being extremely healthy

Still no top 4 LHD or 2nd line C

Only Neighbours and Hofer have cemented themselves as NHL players. Bolduc and Kessel have to prove they can keep those over a full season. Just look at what Vrana, Kapanen, and Blais did last season with us and this season with us.

Blues have a tendency to play down to their competition, this is zero reason to expect they won't do it again next year like they have the past 10 years.

Even with a new coach there will be a learning curve. And if the secondary scoring doesn't play at a level good enough we could easily be a one line one pairing team again next year.


Then add that there is still a large chance that players like Buch, Kyrou, Faulk, and Krug my move as well and without knowing what players replace them we can't project the play of next season.

 

[Mike Liut]

We highly overachieved this season with OT wins and being extremely healthy

Still no top 4 LHD or 2nd line C

Only Neighbours and Hofer have cemented themselves as NHL players. Bolduc and Kessel have to prove they can keep those over a full season. Just look at what Vrana, Kapanen, and Blais did last season with us and this season with us.

Blues have a tendency to play down to their competition, this is zero reason to expect they won't do it again next year like they have the past 10 years.

Even with a new coach there will be a learning curve. And if the secondary scoring doesn't play at a level good enough we could easily be a one line one pairing team again next year.


Then add that there is still a large chance that players like Buch, Kyrou, Faulk, and Krug my move as well and without knowing what players replace them we can't project the play of next season.

I’m not trading for BT to win the cup in 2025, I’m trading for him because he fits our cores age and window. We can address 1LD and 2C in the very near future. I’d also move Buch to try to address one of those needs. We’ll be clearing loads of salary in the next couple years too, with expiring contracts, trades and possible buyouts if needed. BT adds a huge element we need on this team.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I’m not trading for BT to win the cup in 2025, I’m trading for him because he fits our cores age and window. We can address 1LD and 2C in the very near future. I’d also move Buch to try to address one of those needs. We’ll be clearing loads of salary in the next couple years too, with expiring contracts, trades and possible buyouts if needed. BT adds a huge element we need on this team.

We need to address the 1LD and the 2C BEFORE we trade our prime assets for a winger not after.

 

[Mike Liut]

We need to address the 1LD and the 2C BEFORE we trade our prime assets for a winger not after.

the assets from Buch can address one of those now.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

the assets from Buch can address one of those now.

And the first rounders you want to trade for Brady would be more valuable than anything Buch will return those assets would be much better used on getting a player that we actually need. Not another winger.

Brady is not coming here any time soon. As a team that is closer to a rebuild than contending trading our 1sts should be an absolute non starter unless it's for a player we need. Brady is a player we want, not need, he is not a center and he is not a defenseman.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

I’m not trading for BT to win the cup in 2025, I’m trading for him because he fits our cores age and window. We can address 1LD and 2C in the very near future. I’d also move Buch to try to address one of those needs. We’ll be clearing loads of salary in the next couple years too, with expiring contracts, trades and possible buyouts if needed. BT adds a huge element we need on this team.

His contract doesn't fit our window though, and I'd rather not be depending on getting a Tkachuk signing a reasonable contract when that time comes.

 

[Mike Liut]

His contract doesn't fit our window though, and I'd rather not be depending on getting a Tkachuk signing a reasonable contract when that time comes.

Doesn’t he have 5 years left?

 

[Celtic Note]

No. Just no. We have real issues to fix. Sorry but this is a bad idea.

 

[Mike Liut]

And the first rounders you want to trade for Brady would be more valuable than anything Buch will return those assets would be much better used on getting a player that we actually need. Not another winger.

Brady is not coming here any time soon. As a team that is closer to a rebuild than contending trading our 1sts should be an absolute non starter unless it's for a player we need. Brady is a player we want, not need, he is not a center and he is not a defenseman.

I wouldn’t call Brady just another winger. He’d be the best player on the team

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

I wouldn’t call Brady just another winger. He’d be the best player on the team

Second best.

 

[Mike Liut]

Second best.

Debatable. But I get it