Prospect Info: Blues 2024-2025 Prospect Thread

[BadgersandBlues]

I've been frustrated with our usage of Bolduc this season for two reasons:

1. It's been pretty clear to me since Monty took over that the third winger with the Thomas/Buch pairing needs to be a finisher. Bolduc's got one of the best shots on our team and showed some nice chemistry with Thomas last season. When we were trying to actually win games, he seemed like a natural fit.

2. All the other guys we've tried on that pairing haven't brought squat to the table. Overall Neighbors has less 5v5 points then Bolduc in 10 more games played, and has played the majority of his 5v5 minutes with Thomas since Monty took over. Saad, Texier, and ofc Kyrou have also played a bunch on that line, yet Bolduc's seen all of 15 total 5v5 minutes with Thomas and Buch. Why do we keep rewarding Neighbors with prime minutes? He hasn't shown any semblence of being a top 6 winger this season, and he's had pretty bad defensive metrics compared to Bolduc (Althought with obviously tougher QoC).

Final note, and this really has nothing to do with prospects, but it's been irking me for awhile and Brian talking about QoC seemed like a good time to slip it in - I'm tired of the Blues hard matching the Thomas line up against the other team's top line. I get why we do it, and in the future we might want to go back to doing it again, but the only value our 4th line of Walker-Faksa-Toro brings is that they're actually extremely defensively responsible for a 4th line, and yet we don't use them as what many old-school fans would call a checking line. I'd really like to see Thomas feast on a bit lighter competition, especially if that means we can ease a guy like Bolduc or Snuggy in there.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Yes, he is getting better offensive deployment, but it's not crazy offensive deployment at 54.88%. All the top 6 guys and Bolduc are between 50,8 and 56%.

He hasn't produced? 2.14 per 60 with Holloway would put him tied for 2nd on the team with our leading point scorer Kyrou. All of those stats you listed are better than Neighbours by a wide margin, and all the ones without Schenn are better production than Schenn has. The worst P/60 listed aside from Schenn, his P/60 with Kyoru, would out him 5th on the team.

Look what he has done for Neighbours. Sure, his P/60 with Neighbours is ONLY 1.91 p/60. Neighbours P/60 with Bolduc is 1.46, but without him its 1.06. That is a huge jump playing with Bolduc. And his production over Neighbours means to me, that Neighbours is not one of the top guys. He should be the one on the 3rd line. Because he has not produced at 5v5 at all and his most common line mates are Thomas and Buchnevich. And he is 1.39 with Buchnevich and 1.01 with Thomas. those are both far less than Bolduc, yet he has 345 and 295 minutes with each respectively.

Neighbors has honestly been one of the biggest disappointments of this season. He's been continually gifted a top 6 role and done nothing with it. As it stands right now, he's easily my #1 trade bait winger to improve either the Center or RHD positions AINEC (Of guys I think who have value and aren't magic beans, like a Stancel or Robertsson).

 

[Brian39]

Yes, he is getting better offensive deployment, but it's not crazy offensive deployment at 54.88%. All the top 6 guys and Bolduc are between 50,8 and 56%.

He hasn't produced? 2.14 per 60 with Holloway would put him tied for 2nd on the team with our leading point scorer Kyrou. All of those stats you listed are better than Neighbours by a wide margin, and all the ones without Schenn are better production than Schenn has. The worst P/60 listed aside from Schenn, his P/60 with Kyoru, would out him 5th on the team.

Look what he has done for Neighbours. Sure, his P/60 with Neighbours is ONLY 1.91 p/60. Neighbours P/60 with Bolduc is 1.46, but without him its 1.06. That is a huge jump playing with Bolduc. And his production over Neighbours means to me, that Neighbours is not one of the top guys. He should be the one on the 3rd line. Because he has not produced at 5v5 at all and his most common line mates are Thomas and Buchnevich. And he is 1.39 with Buchnevich and 1.01 with Thomas. those are both far less than Bolduc, yet he has 345 and 295 minutes with each respectively.

You said that his production would be less because he's stapled to Sunny. But he scores more with Sunny than he has with better players (except Holloway). He hasn't seen an uptick in production when he goes up the lineup. Notice how I said that 'he hasn't seen a drastic uptick in production' and not 'he hasn't produced.'

His production with Holloway has come when Holloway moves down the lineup, not when Bolduc moves up in the lineup. Bolduc hasn't scored a goal in the 75 minutes he's played with either of our top 6 centers. That isn't going to convince the coach to keep him up there for longer stretches. And while the 3rd line has looked good when Holloway is down there with Bolduc, that has generally caused one (or both) of the top 6 lines to struggle and I think there is a great argument that developing Holloway as a top 6 player is more important than using him to help Bolduc on the 3rd line.

Again, I'm not knocking Bolduc. I'm really happy with his play, but I very much disagree that he's just getting screwed for no reason. He's a young player who is excelling in the sheltered role he has been given. In a perfect world, we'd have a better 3C to help him along, but that doesn't mean that we need to get him into the top 6.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yeah, the issue is more that we don't have other talented 3rd liners than him earning a top 6 spot and it being denied. Even on the PP, Sunny is there for the net front role, Bolduc isn't playing in that spot.

 

[Brian39]

2. All the other guys we've tried on that pairing haven't brought squat to the table. Overall Neighbors has less 5v5 points then Bolduc in 10 more games played, and has played the majority of his 5v5 minutes with Thomas since Monty took over. Saad, Texier, and ofc Kyrou have also played a bunch on that line, yet Bolduc's seen all of 15 total 5v5 minutes with Thomas and Buch. Why do we keep rewarding Neighbors with prime minutes? He hasn't shown any semblence of being a top 6 winger this season, and he's had pretty bad defensive metrics compared to Bolduc (Althought with obviously tougher QoC).

In large part because development isn't linear and he had 27 goals last season (19 at even strength) as a 21 year old. He forced the Blues to keep increasing his usage by scoring goals and while he has deep flaws to other elements of his game, he endears himself to the room/coaches by being extremely physical and fighting 4 times in his young NHL career. He seized his opportunities as they came last year and 'proved it.' Every coach in the league is going to default to those guys unless/until unproven guys seize their opportunities and force slumpers down the lineup.

The reality of the NHL is that there are exactly zero teams that function on a present-performance-meritocracy. Past performance plays a large role in decision making all across the league.

I would have absolutely zero problem reducing the deployment we're giving Neighbours and I agree that he has not been a top 6 winger this season. But the season he had last year is going to buy a good chunk of benefit of the doubt that they can continue developing. I also think it is worth noting that he is a minute per night behind our 5th most used forward at even strength and his ice time has been creeping downward through the season. His 13:06 a night at even strength since the New Year is 2:48 a night behind Schenn (who is 5th among forwards) and is over a minute a night less than he was averaging before the New Year. His leash has noticeably shortened. I'm in favor of further reducing his even strength usage more, but it isn't like the coaching staff isn't reacting to his disappointing season.

 

[Majorityof1]

You said that his production would be less because he's stapled to Sunny. But he scores more with Sunny than he has with better players (except Holloway). He hasn't seen an uptick in production when he goes up the lineup. Notice how I said that 'he hasn't seen a drastic uptick in production' and not 'he hasn't produced.'

His production with Holloway has come when Holloway moves down the lineup, not when Bolduc moves up in the lineup. Bolduc hasn't scored a goal in the 75 minutes he's played with either of our top 6 centers. That isn't going to convince the coach to keep him up there for longer stretches. And while the 3rd line has looked good when Holloway is down there with Bolduc, that has generally caused one (or both) of the top 6 lines to struggle and I think there is a great argument that developing Holloway as a top 6 player is more important than using him to help Bolduc on the 3rd line.

Again, I'm not knocking Bolduc. I'm really happy with his play, but I very much disagree that he's just getting screwed for no reason. He's a young player who is excelling in the sheltered role he has been given. In a perfect world, we'd have a better 3C to help him along, but that doesn't mean that we need to get him into the top 6.

I would say its 2-fold why his numbers while still better than most the team are slightly less with better players. (1) It takes time to build chemistry. His sample size with top 6 talent is all small and scattered. We're talking 60 minutes with Buch. that's not points per 60, that's just points. Thomas is half as much. And it hasn't been a consistent multiple game stretch with those guys, its a game here, a game there. Probably not many practices with them either. How can you expect to find chemistry that way?

(2) He's been bounced up and down and out of the line-up for incomprehensible things. I'd think he may be playing ultra, ultra conservatively when getting the tougher deployment on the top line because he knows if Monty thinks he sneezes funny he'll be in the press box the next game. That's the wrong thought process for a young kid, but you can see he is tentative with the top line. I think saying, hey, here's a several-game stretch with Thomas and Buchnevich and we aren't taking you out. Go have fun and show us what you got would do wonders.

The reality of the NHL is that there are exactly zero teams that function on a present-performance-meritocracy. Past performance plays a large role in decision making all across the league.

Would you say overall, that is for the better or detriment to teams? In other words, would teams perform better if they did treat it like more of a meritocracy? If teams would be better served being more meritocratic, shouldn't we strive for that as well?

 

[Brian39]

Would you say overall, that is for the better or detriment to teams? In other words, would teams perform better if they did treat it like more of a meritocracy? If teams would be better served being more meritocratic, shouldn't we strive for that as well?

Overwhelmingly to the betterment.

Jordan Binnington isn't in net for Canada in that gold medal game in a 'what have you done for me only lately' meritocracy. Knowing that your studs are your studs and will play their way out of slumps is a massively important trait for a coach to have. Getting your team from point A to point Z isn't just about having the best performance at each individual point along the way.

Jon Cooper tagging Binner as his guy based on what he knew he could do and then being rewarded for it is exactly why you don't just ignore the past. Obviously there has to be a point where you change your assessment, but you have to trust your past evaluation of players and do what you can to get a struggling guy back to what you've seen him do before.

 

[jjniner]

Would you all give up Neighbors for Nemec?

 

[BlueMed]

Would you all give up Neighbors for Nemec?

Yes, absolutely.