Prospect Info: Blues 2024-2025 Prospect Thread

[PocketNines]

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[SirPaste]

Name me 10 better pools. Almost nobody has elite guys and depth. Our combo of both is quite good.

I think an argument could be made that we don't have any elite guys, I think Dvorsky is but there are plenty who don't.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I would agree the Blues are about to enter a period where they’re competitive again but by and large I’m going to have to agree with Perry. Unless a couple of our prospects overachieve by quite a bit, we just don’t have the elite talent coming that many other orgs do. And it’s that elite talent that’s typically needed to win the Cup.

Where’s our Barkov and Tkachuk? Eichel, Stone and Pietrangelo? MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar? Kucherov, Hedman, Vasilevski and Stamkos? Pietrangelo and ROR?

 

[LogosBlue]

What is 'elite'? Or what is a 'gamebreaker'? I would argue those terms have become overused, muddled and practically meaningless when it comes to prospects. If it actually held any meaning, the league would be littered with gamebreaking talent across the entire roster. There at least a 10 pundit labeled "gamebreakers" walking into the league every year.

I know there was The Athletic article from last year that ranked teams draft performance. I believe the Blues finished 8th with the big caveat that we shipped out a lot of high end talent during and immediately post SC. The way in which that was graded, and the timeframe (15 years) used wasn't really all that valuable, but it did reinforce some of what we constantly hear at the national level - STL is really good at drafting productive NHL players.

We don't take as many offensive home run swings as other teams. And there are some, e.g. Dallas, Tampa, and more recently Minnesota that are great at both. That certainly feeds the narrative that we don't have a lot of high end talent, but: Jake Neighbors almost scored 30 goals last year. Thomas will be a 100pt player. Kyrou is a perineal 30 goal scorer. Snuggerud is sleepwalking at the top of the NCAA. Dvorsky is producing (agree with Perry, 'producing' not dominating) in the AHL as much as some "Wheeler/Pronman labeled high end prospects that are 1-2 years older. Stenberg has torched the WJC 2 years in a row, and Stancl nearly led this years WJC in scoring.

My point in all of this: Our scouts are better than ones writing articles and doing rankings to a compounding degree. They have been for a long time. And our prospects seem to consistently outperform their peers and/or pundit expectations. Too much of a prospect rankings are swayed with pre-draft pedigree, accessible geography, and post-draft game style noisiness vs. just simply production and performance.

I think what everyone is really talking about when they say 'elite' (IMO) are "play drivers". The problem is that you can't have a whole team, or even a whole line of play drivers. There just aren't that many of them. Less and less at every level leading into the NHL. Outside of the lottery, you draft for top-6 production and you hope for play-drivers.

Dvorsky has a good shot at being a play driver, but he's also got a very high floor. Much higher than guys like (e.g. Benson, Perreault, Eiserman, Moore, etc.) who are generally ranked higher than him for nebulous reasons. Him having a high floor (i.e. a detailed 2-way game, and smart puck control) seems to somehow obstruct the elite parts of his game. His puck control, passing and shot are and were severely underrated as 'elite' skills. I don't think it's a big leap to think he could be a 35-35 guy with (e.g.) Kyrou on his wing. 70pts, to me, is an elite outcome.

There are so few players that can break a game open on their own, yet it's written by the columnists like it's a common thing that teams like the Blues just don't have. So much of a high end prospects outcome depend on how the players around them optimize the elite talents that they do have. I mean, Snuggy could very well end up being a 'gamebreaker' on Thomas's wing.

One of my main takeaways from the WJC, given Finlands performance against the US and Sweden, was how much Dvorksy with very limited help was able to keep his team in the game as long as he did. Pekarcik had a hand in that, too, but Dvorsky was pressured in ways that (e.g.) Leonard was not due to the talent level of his whole line. And yet, Dvorsky still produced and created more chances. That's no slight on Leonard (who is one of my favorite non-Blues prospects), I just think Dvorsky is right there with him.

I'm not trying to suggest the Blues have 'the best' pipeline, but I am saying it's a good bet that when we look back on this collection of prospects...ours will outproduce and play more games than many of the teams pundits have in front of us.

I think you just proved the point he was making. Elite or superstar should be viewed as perennially 90+ points per season as a play driver / forward. We have some high end prospects IMO with Dvo, Jiricek and Lindstein (and maybe Stancl, Stener and Snuggy by the time its all said and done) but they are not elite from what we know now. I believe the only caveat to this might be Jiricek. He is so young and raw at this point, we really don't know yet. He could be elite or superstar in the making. Have to wait to see.

The Blues have had plenty of elite players over the years but we actually won a cup with a depth of high end players. Just sayin.

 

[TheOrganist]

@taylord22 I’m not sure if you were a scout at some point in your life but you obviously have a very nuanced and technical understanding of the game. I would love to know your definition of the term “play driver”…this is a fairly recent terminology if I’m not mistaken as I’ve skated since I was 5, broadcast hockey in a former life (and was around many scouts and former high level players at this time and never heard the term used) and watched hockey all my adult life. I’ve never heard this term until the last handful of years. Is it just a proxy for a player that generates possession? Is a puck moving defenseman a “play driver” because he starts the rush? Is an elite checking forward a “play driver” because he negates chances and initiates counter attacks? Robert Thomas because of his elite vision, defensive acumen and playmaking? Kyrou because of his ability to consistently generate scoring chances 5 on 5? All of the above?

Would love your take on how you define that term cause it’s used a lot and seems abstract to me.

 

[PocketNines]

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[Bye Bye Blueston]

Anaheim
Arizona
Buffalo
Calgary
Carolina
Chicago
columbus
Detroit
Minnesota
Montreal
New Jersey
Phillie
San Jose
Seattle
Utah

They are better or on par with what we have

Are you counting guys who are nhl regulars? Because if not, several of those are well below us.

 

[Quaz]

I would agree the Blues are about to enter a period where they’re competitive again but by and large I’m going to have to agree with Perry. Unless a couple of our prospects overachieve by quite a bit, we just don’t have the elite talent coming that many other orgs do. And it’s that elite talent that’s typically needed to win the Cup.

Where’s our Barkov and Tkachuk? Eichel, Stone and Pietrangelo? MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar? Kucherov, Hedman, Vasilevski and Stamkos? Pietrangelo and ROR?

I agree that we don’t have a Petro level D Man, unless Broberg levels up, but I would think Thomas is pretty close or maybe better than an ROR, at least offensively. ROR has never broke 80 points. He was lights out in the SC run, but I wouldn’t consider him an elite forward. I think Thomas is a better offensive player and worse defensive player, but equal in value to a contending team. Thomas still has to prove it as “the man” in the playoffs. Let’s hope he gets there.

 

[Quaz]

Are you counting guys who are nhl regulars? Because he not, several of those are well below us.

He counted Arizona and Utah as better so that eliminates one team. Also I don’t see CGY as having a better prospect pool. They basically have Parekh and Honzek. If Parekh’s play doesn’t translate their propspect pool doesn’t come close to what STL has.

 

[PocketNines]

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[Quaz]

Yeah but there is still observable difference between the two due to the details perfectionism and relentlessness of ROR, that provided so much value. Thomas is an excellent player but he is no prime ROR IMO. ROR gave us what Bergeron gave the Bruins

I will agree that ROR did dominate in the finals. I hope his example will rub off on to Thomas. I would love to see Thomas start to take over games.

 

[STL fan in MN]

On defense, I feel like they had multiple holes but the glaring one is the support beam and that is numero uno on the to do list. With that in mind I feel like Broberg + Lindstein go a long way toward plugging the multiple holes that there were, and Jiricek gives you alternately a possibility or a prospect to dangle when trying to trade for one at that spot. Neither one is likely in and of itself but combined, the possibility of turning it into a support beam is closer than what we have recently had which was literally zero.

Up front, I am a lot more confident. ROR trade is a lot more doable, look at the pieces. There should also be room to spend on vets with more confidence in projecting cost control for a period of time with these younger guys.

Once I have the defensive support beam, then I am looking to finalize with the elite impact forward trade. I foresee a project of 6-30 months to secure the #1D we need as these other guys are filling in and landing. The order is important to me. Adding ROR to that team if it didn't have a Pietrangelo goes nowhere. So the big impact forward acquisition in my mind comes when we're looking at the team after the defensive acquisition and seeing what has to be finalized.

I think we see things similarly. I just don’t see us having the ability to be a true Cup contender until we have that defensive support beam…and they seem very hard to come by. Agree we have and will have a lot of quality assets to trade but I’m not counting on that until we have that player in a Blues jersey.

 

[BlueMed]

Just a couple more nuggets from today.

 

[Stealth JD]

Again…our defensive prospects have a handful of potential top-4 guys, but zero sure-fire top-pairing talents. Maybe somebody could level-up and become a top-pair…but that will likely take at least another half-decade and the more likely scenario is that nobody quite stacks up. It could be like Jackman as the #1…technically he was top-pairing, because nobody else was more qualified.

Lindstein was decent at the WJC, but he was still the third-best defender on his own team. If anyone is expecting him to be the Blues savior or center-beam of the defense is setting themselves up for disappointment, and putting unfair expectations on the guy.

It would be nice to see more of Koromyslov, as those who have watched him claim he’s a future top-four in the NHL, but it’s not unrealistic if the best defensive prospect in the Blues pool tops-out as a ‘decent’ second pairing guy, with the rest of the guys slotting in below (or not at all).

 

[PocketNines]

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[BlueMed]

On defense, I feel like they had multiple holes but the glaring one is the support beam and that is numero uno on the to do list. With that in mind I feel like Broberg + Lindstein go a long way toward plugging the multiple holes that there were, and Jiricek gives you alternately a possibility or a prospect to dangle when trying to trade for one at that spot. Neither one is likely in and of itself but combined, the possibility of turning it into a support beam is closer than what we have recently had which was literally zero.

Once I have the defensive support beam, then I am looking to finalize with the elite impact forward trade. I foresee a project of 6-30 months to secure the #1D we need as these other guys are filling in and landing. The order is important to me. Adding ROR to that team if it didn't have a Pietrangelo goes nowhere. So the big impact forward acquisition in my mind comes when we're looking at the team after the defensive acquisition and seeing what has to be finalized.

I think we see things similarly. I just don’t see us having the ability to be a true Cup contender until we have that defensive support beam…and they seem very hard to come by. Agree we have and will have a lot of quality assets to trade but I’m not counting on that until we have that player in a Blues jersey.

Broberg is taking in his first full season in a top 4 role, and he's already producing 0.5 points per game playing 20 minutes per night. By comparison, Brock Faber is also producing 0.5 points per game on an overachieving Wild team playing 25 minutes per night. The point I'm making here is that Broberg is expected to improve next year and the year after. I don't see why he wouldn't fit the mold of an all situations, number 1 defenseman in the near future. I also don't see how this team is going to find a better defenseman than him, specifically on the right side nor do I think that is necessary to start contending. We are looking to build the best team, not necessarily a perfect one.

 

[BlueMed]

Again…our defensive prospects have a handful of potential top-4 guys, but zero sure-fire top-pairing talents. Maybe somebody could level-up and become a top-pair…but that will likely take at least another half-decade and the more likely scenario is that nobody quite stacks up. It could be like Jackman as the #1…technically he was top-pairing, because nobody else was more qualified.

Lindstein was decent at the WJC, but he was still the third-best defender on his own team. If anyone is expecting him to be the Blues savior or center-beam of the defense is setting themselves up for disappointment, and putting unfair expectations on the guy.

It would be nice to see more of Koromyslov, as those who have watched him claim he’s a future top-four in the NHL, but it’s not unrealistic if the best defensive prospect in the Blues pool tops-out as a ‘decent’ second pairing guy, with the rest of the guys slotting in below (or not at all).

Defensively, we have Broberg and Parayko. Parayko already is a top pairing defenseman, and Broberg is on a fair trajectory to be one next year or the year after (when it matters). Even if the coaching staff wants to separate those two, Lindstein is projected to be more than competent to play alongside a guy like Parayko. I don't think anyone can guarantee that much, but given our scouting departments' optimism surrounding him and his comfortability playing not only against men in the swedish league but also against the best of his peers, I don't see why he couldn't make that transition in a couple years once Fowler's contract is over.

 

[PocketNines]

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[PocketNines]

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[PocketNines]

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[PocketNines]

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[StlBigFly]

I am not talking about "performance in the Final" I'm talking about who they were as players. ROR was in prime Bergeron mode that entire season, absolutely in no way shape or form just the Final.

IMO we are never going to get that level out of Thomas but it doesn't mean that's a flaw, and I think Thomas is good enough of a center to be one of the top two centers on a Cup contender.

Do a thought exercise to test this. One team has prime Thomas, one team matches prime ROR against him for all the marbles. I hope the ROR team is my team in this exercise.

I’m not so sure. Thomas is still just 25. His best years and many of them should be ahead. I think he will be extremely effective - the last few years we have been in retool mode - I think with a full squad and a matured Thomas you may end up preferring him in this experiment.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

I think a lot of the conversation about our prospects not needing to be elite because we have Thomas and possibly Broberg to fill the #1 roles on offense and defense just supports the argument that we currently lack any true blue-chip prospects that have superstar upside. We have a glutten of guys that can develop into role playing middle 6 guys or 2nd or 3rd pairing Dmen. Just not enough of these guys are in the consensus top 50 prospects league-wide and NONE are in the top 25. Still convinced we would need an elite piece to propel into the top 10 farm systems.

 

[PocketNines]

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[BlueMed]

I am not talking about "performance in the Final" I'm talking about who they were as players. ROR was in prime Bergeron mode that entire season, absolutely in no way shape or form just the Final.

IMO we are never going to get that level out of Thomas but it doesn't mean that's a flaw, and I think Thomas is good enough of a center to be one of the top two centers on a Cup contender.

Do a thought exercise to test this. One team has prime Thomas, one team matches prime ROR against him for all the marbles. I hope the ROR team is my team in this exercise.

I’m not so sure. Thomas is still just 25. His best years and many of them should be ahead. I think he will be extremely effective - the last few years we have been in retool mode - I think with a full squad and a matured Thomas you may end up preferring him in this experiment.

I'm probably right in between you two here. The best comp I have for Thomas is Nicklas Backstrom (20 goal, 60 assist caliber playmaker). Could the Capitals have won the cup in 2018 without Kuznetsov as the 2C? Probably not, and it certainly made Backstrom's job quite a bit easier. Having that 1-2 punch is possible with Dvorsky in the future.