If teams are basing prospect decisions on third party analyses, they deserve to be suckered into those kinds of trades.
Blue Jays Discussion: Blue Jays baseball: now with 100% more wins!
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If teams are basing prospect decisions on third party analyses, they deserve to be suckered into those kinds of trades.
Kurtz
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trellaine201
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Harold Ballard
Klutchperi Kapanen
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Travis who....Snider? Nope, never liked him as a everyday, more like a tweener...not quite there.
Rowdy? Power bat, getting better in the field...but most importantly he desires to get better, that can be the difference between a ballot and a cup of coffee...He just has to watch the weight
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Harold Ballard
Klutchperi Kapanen
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He's the reason why they won their opener....tuned in the 9th, just like old times....
Harold Ballard
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HamiltonNHL
Resigning Marner == Running it back
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Woodman19
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How? We offered 4 years for $80 million and he declined it and took 3 years for $60 million. Seems like he messed up the negotiations.
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
ShaneFalco
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phillipmike
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BertCorbeau
F*ck cancer - RIP Fugu and Buffaloed
Ya the article on Sportsnet says still can't pitch because of the shoulder injury suffered last year. I didn't realize he has been on the DL that many times, 7 since 2012, wow. He pitched pretty well when he wasn't injured, too bad never want to see a guys career possibly be over due to injuries.
phillipmike
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DH: 9.7M by my own calculations.
1B: Smoak, and Pearce below average.
SP: as a group is around 9M/per player... Stroman and Sanchez below average.
OF: Carrera and Pillar below average. Bautista above.
3B: Well above average with JD
2B: Below with Travis
SS: Well above with Tulo
C: Well above with Tulo
RP: 3 above in Grilli, Howell and Smith. Everyone below.
DH: Slightly above with Morales
Jays spent the 7th most in guaranteed dollars on free agents this off-season.
Dodgers, Mets, Cards, Yankees, Rockies, Astros, Jays, Indians, Giants and Marlins are the top 10.
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inthe6ix
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Longshot
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The $950 million less spent on free agents during the winter is fascinating. The quality of pitching available was garbage and there was a glut of one dimensional sluggers on the market.
I have a serious question on the Smoak issue. I see a lot of people deriding that contract and on the surface it doesn't look good. But, were there comparable players this winter that signed for something similar or less? I'm not talking the top end of the market involving the EEs, Bautistas and Trumbos.
I think it's more to the point that you didn't have to sign it then. Smoak is just a guy. The just a guy type player is someone who there is usually an abundance of and there is no need to scramble to re-sign. Let him go to free agency and circle back when needed. If you don't get the Smoak brand Just a Guy, there are other brands on the shelves that you can stock up on at the free agency supermarket.
Longshot
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I answered my own question.
The closest comparables to Smoak are Chris Carter and Mitch Moreland. Carter received 1 year for $3.5 million and Moreland received 1 year and $5.5 million.
Both had significantly more at bats last year than Smoak and on the surface appear better. However, if you compare them over a similar amount of at bats Moreland's numbers are similar to Smoak, while Carter's, who led the NL in homeruns, are superior. Carter's strike out numbers are downright scary and Moreland is a leftie batter, while Smoak offers the versatility of being a switch hitter.
Considering the way the market played out, the Smoak extension isn't as bad as some want to believe - although the second year is certainly puzzling.
It's interesting to look at Smoak's numbers. He has just under 600 at bats over two seasons as a Jay. During that time he has 32 homeruns and a .736 OPS. At a salary level of $4.1 million, it's about what you would expect.
The closest comparables to Smoak are Chris Carter and Mitch Moreland. Carter received 1 year for $3.5 million and Moreland received 1 year and $5.5 million.
Both had significantly more at bats last year than Smoak and on the surface appear better. However, if you compare them over a similar amount of at bats Moreland's numbers are similar to Smoak, while Carter's, who led the NL in homeruns, are superior. Carter's strike out numbers are downright scary and Moreland is a leftie batter, while Smoak offers the versatility of being a switch hitter.
Considering the way the market played out, the Smoak extension isn't as bad as some want to believe - although the second year is certainly puzzling.
It's interesting to look at Smoak's numbers. He has just under 600 at bats over two seasons as a Jay. During that time he has 32 homeruns and a .736 OPS. At a salary level of $4.1 million, it's about what you would expect.
phillipmike
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In my opinion it is only a bad deal in terms of money hindsight because of how the market fell for others in the off-season.
Now i welcome and agree with the argument that it is a bad deal because of team fit (can only play 1B) and because he isnt that good. Both good arguments that could be supported.
But when the deal was signed at the time only 16th other 1B were locked up for the 2017 season. The 16th guy was Jaso making 4M... So at the time Smoak was the 15th highest paid 1B (2nd last). After that EE, Desmond, Myers, Napoli, Moreland, and Thames all signed bigger deals dropping to the 22nd highest paid 1B - was 22nd in 2016.
At the Time: Contract was fair in terms of market value (only needs to put up a 0.5 WAR) each season to make it worthwhile plus what his comparable's got. Bad in the sense it was a bad fit and he wasnt really good. Jaso got 2 years at 4M per. Smoak getting 2 years shouldnt be a stretch so not awful as you are paying him to be a bench player.
Now: Looking that more useful players got less (Morrison, Carter, Weekes, Lind, and Moss) the only fair aspect of the deal looks worse (market value). If Smoak was a FA he was probably getting 1-3M max on a 1 year deal.
In the end hindsight is 20/20 because no one knew the market would crater but even at the time its wasnt a good deal (fit, 2 years and performance).. but i guess the argument can be made that it wasnt awful at the time as he was being paid as the 15th (2nd last at the time) highest paid 1B (only Jaso was less) and after the fact 22nd.
When Smoak signed here was the WAR of the FA 1Bs for the entire 2015 season and the 1st half of 2016;
1. EE - 6.8
2. Desmond - 5.2
3. Moss - 2.3
4. Moreland - 2.3
5. Lind - 1.7
6. Napoli - 1.2
7. Smoak - 0.7
8. Morrison - (0.2)
9. Weeks - (0.7)
Take Carter out because he was still under Brewers control at the time and Thames because he wasnt in the MLB. Smoak was 7th on this list in terms of production and is being paid as the 6th on the list so not bad. EE, Desmon, Moss and i would argue Napoli deserved muti year deals. The problem is that Smoak is getting 2 years when he probably didnt deserve it but the 4.125M per was the going rate for a player like him about to hit the open market.
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I think the extension was questionable at the time. Not good, obviously. But not awful, either. Just a bit odd, and probably unnecessary (particularly when it comes to the second year).
But I think your point here is an important one that people overlook all the time. Up until the day he signed the extension, he had a 101 wRC+ in a year and a half with the Jays. With the roster uncertainty going forward, they were locking up a league-average bat to provide a little bit of stability.
After the signing, he had a wRC+ of 60.
It sucks to see how awful he was after the extension, but people often seem to treat it as if that information was available at the time when they refer to it as a horrible signing.
I actually understood the extension at the time, they were protecting themselves in case EE left or the market was as it usually was. I am sure they talked to many coaches and personal to decide if he was a "good fit' as well. While I didn't love it I understood it.
phillipmike
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Probably the best way to put it. Some understand and are neutral... others understand and still hate it and the majority didnt care to understand because they didnt like him as a player and absolutely hate it from all angles.
Count me in as a guy who understands the signing and didnt like it at the time based on fit. In the end i am not going to lose my mind about the 4M per. The roster spot is a little more valuable and as they have shown with Upton they arent afraid to move off their mistakes (though i liked Upton and i would have preferred to give him a shot)... hopefully Smoak is useful or really bad and we can use his roster spot on someone more useful. I am betting that might be Pompey when he returns.
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