Biggest drop in points

[illpucks]

Has any player scored 100/82 then 20/82? Or something like that? What is biggest point drop in consecutive seasons?

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[Hockey Outsider]

There definitely needs to be a games played threshold, or else the primary cause is going to be injuries (such as Bure dropping from 74 points from 1998 to 1999, because he played 71 fewer games).

I've arbitrarily set a threshold of 70 games in both seasons. Here are the 17 instances in NHL history when a player has dropped at least 40 points from one season to the next:

Player	1st year	2nd year	1st points	2nd points	Drop
Bill Barber	1976	1977	112	55	-57
Dennis Maruk	1982	1983	136	81	-55
Bob MacMillan	1979	1980	108	61	-47
Reggie Leach	1976	1977	91	46	-45
Chuck Lefley	1976	1977	85	41	-44
Phil Esposito	1975	1976	127	83	-44
Sergei Fedorov	1996	1997	107	63	-44
Mats Naslund	1989	1990	84	41	-43
Pete Mahovlich	1976	1977	105	62	-43
Vaclav Nedomansky	1980	1981	74	32	-42
Wayne Gretzky	1991	1992	163	121	-42
Joe Mullen	1989	1990	110	69	-41
Mike Modano	2003	2004	85	44	-41
Andre Boudrias	1975	1976	78	38	-40
Brian MacLellan	1985	1986	85	45	-40
Bryan Trottier	1982	1983	129	89	-40
Jean Pronovost	1976	1977	104	64	-40

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It's probably useful to consider the percentage change. For example, Gretzky and Nedomansky both dropped 42 points, but that was "only" a 26% decrease for TGO, compared to a 57% for Big Ned.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

And for those curious, the biggest gains (50 point minimum):

Player	1st year	2nd year	1st points	2nd points	Jump
Eric Staal	2004	2006	31	100	69
Scott Bjugstad	1985	1986	15	76	61
Brian Gionta	2004	2006	29	89	60
Walt McKechnie	1975	1976	23	82	59
Brian Sutter	1978	1979	22	80	58
Teemu Selanne	2004	2006	32	90	58
Paul Coffey	1981	1982	32	89	57
Andy McDonald	2004	2006	30	85	55
Bernie Federko	1978	1979	41	95	54
Phil Esposito	1970	1971	99	152	53
William Karlsson	2017	2018	25	78	53
Doug Gilmour	1986	1987	53	105	52
Joe Thornton	2004	2006	73	125	52
Bryan Trottier	1977	1978	72	123	51
Ken Hodge	1970	1971	54	105	51

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Note that five of these straddle the lockout (McDonald, Gionta, Staal, Thornton, and Selanne).

 

[sr edler]

Regarding positive jumps in production Håkan Loob in 86–87 had 44 points in 68 games (2 games off of @Hockey Outsider's threshold of 70 games) which is 0.65 in PPG and a projected 52 points in 80 games.

Next season in 80 games he had 106 points in 80 games which is 62 points (which would put him 2nd on that list) in actual increase and 52 points in PPG increase (which would still make the list).

 

[LeBlondeDemon10]

You could add Guy Lafleur to the list as he scored 125 pts in 74 games in 79-80 and then dropped to 70 pts in 51 games in 80-81.

 

[scott clam]

Doug Gilmour went from 111 points in 83 games in 93/94 to 33 in 44 in the lockout shortened season that followed. That's 1.33 points per game to 0.75. Adjusted for an 84 game season, as the previous two seasons were, that's 58 points in 77 games.

That amounts to a loss of 53 imaginary points in 6 fewer imaginary games :p

 

[Staniowski]

One of the best-known drops is Bryan Trottier in '84-'85.

'83-'84 - 68 GP, 111 Points
'84-'85 - 68 GP, 59 Points

52 point decline.

 

[Normand Lacombe]

Luc Robitaille saw a 38 point reduction after he signed with Detroit in 2001
2000-01 - 82 games, 88 points in LA
2001-02- 81 games, 50 points in Detroit

Bernie Nicholls had sharp declines for two consecutive seasons.
1988-89- 79 games and 150 points in LA
1989-90- 79 games and 112 points split between LA and the Rangers - 38 point decline
1990-91- 71 games and 73 points in New York - 39 point decline

 

[K Fleur]

I saw this thread and thought “ I bet @Hockey Outsider or @pnep have the answer to this”.

Wasn’t disappointed

 

[sr edler]

Luc Robitaille saw a 38 point reduction after he signed with Detroit in 2001
2000-01 - 82 games, 88 points in LA
2001-02- 81 games, 50 points in Detroit

That's not his biggest drop though.

 

[Nick Hansen]

Immediately thought of Perry and Kopitar.

Perry went from scoring 98 pts in 10/11 playing all games only to follow that up with 60 pts missing two games the year after.
Kopitar scored 92 in 17/18 appearing in all the games and followed that up with scoring 60 pts last year in 81 games.

Eerily similar, actually...

 

[double5son10]

You could add Guy Lafleur to the list as he scored 125 pts in 74 games in 79-80 and then dropped to 70 pts in 51 games in 80-81.

Injury

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

@Hockey Outsider missed a big gainer.

Bobby Orr 69 vs 70

64 points to 120, gain of 56

 

[Voight]

Luc Robitaille saw a 38 point reduction after he signed with Detroit in 2001
2000-01 - 82 games, 88 points in LA
2001-02- 81 games, 50 points in Detroit

Bernie Nicholls had sharp declines for two consecutive seasons.
1988-89- 79 games and 150 points in LA
1989-90- 79 games and 112 points split between LA and the Rangers - 38 point decline
1990-91- 71 games and 73 points in New York - 39 point decline

Robitaille's drop doesn't surprise me as he went from being arguably the top offensive guy on the team to a juggernaut where he was the 4th or 5th offensive option.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

@Hockey Outsider missed a big gainer.

Bobby Orr 69 vs 70

64 points to 120, gain of 56

I set a threshold of 70 games for both seasons. My reasoning was this would exclude examples where a player missed a lot of time. But obviously it excluded some legitimate seasons that probably should have been included (in your example, Orr went from 67 to 76 games - Staniowski had a good example as well, where Trottier played 68 games both years).

Maybe setting the parameter so that the games played should be within, say, 15% of the prior year would be more useful (but that's also a harder query to run).

 

[The Panther]

Robitaille's drop doesn't surprise me as he went from being arguably the top offensive guy on the team to a juggernaut where he was the 4th or 5th offensive option.

That's right. His ice-time dropped by 20% in Detroit, and I would expect his PP ice-time by 50% or something.

 

[GreatGonzo]

One significant increase in points I’ve seen is Neal Broten. Had 56 points in 80 games in ‘85, then jumped to 105 in 80 games in ‘86. A 49 point increase.

Not the biggest drop offs.....

Sakic went fron 118 points in ‘01 to 79 in ‘02, both in 82 games. A 39 point drop off.

Robitaille went from 125 points in 84 games in ‘93 to 86 points in 83 games in ‘94. A 39 point drop off

Bobby Smith went from 114 points in 80 games in ‘82 to 77 points in 77 games in ‘83. A 37 point drop off.

Mogilny went from 107 points in 79 games in ‘96 to 73 points in 76 games in ‘97. A 34 point drop off. Although He only played 66 games in ‘94, he had 79 points. Compared to in ‘93 when he had 127 points, that’s a 48 point difference.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

I set a threshold of 70 games for both seasons. My reasoning was this would exclude examples where a player missed a lot of time. But obviously it excluded some legitimate seasons that probably should have been included (in your example, Orr went from 67 to 76 games - Staniowski had a good example as well, where Trottier played 68 games both years).

Maybe setting the parameter so that the games played should be within, say, 15% of the prior year would be more useful (but that's also a harder query to run).

Fair threshold, in 69 playing 67 games meant he only missed 9. Kinda borderline either way for what you were looking to avoid

 

[Voight]

One significant increase in points I’ve seen is Neal Broten. Had 56 points in 80 games in ‘85, then jumped to 105 in 80 games in ‘86. A 49 point increase.

Not the biggest drop offs.....

Sakic went fron 118 points in ‘01 to 79 in ‘02, both in 82 games. A 39 point drop off.

Robitaille went from 125 points in 84 games in ‘93 to 86 points in 83 games in ‘94. A 39 point drop off

Bobby Smith went from 114 points in 80 games in ‘82 to 77 points in 77 games in ‘83. A 37 point drop off.

Mogilny went from 107 points in 79 games in ‘96 to 73 points in 76 games in ‘97. A 34 point drop off. Although He only played 66 games in ‘94, he had 79 points. Compared to in ‘93 when he had 127 points, that’s a 48 point difference.

Sakic's drop off surprised me too, since he was coming off one helluva season + a championship. The year before was his insane 2001 where he nearly won all 5 major awards. Plus with Gretzky retired & Yzerman fully in a defensive role, he was getting ng a ton of attention.

 

[Nick Hansen]

Are there any defensemen who had huge dropoffs not due to injury and such...?

By the year Chelios turned 35 it certainly seems like he lost something offensively:

1995-96	34	CHI	NHL	81	14	58	72	25	140	7	7	0	3	28	24	6	219	6.4											AS-1,Hart-10,Norris-1
1996-97	35	CHI	NHL	72	10	38	48	16	112	8	2	0	2	19	18	1	194	5.2											AS-3,AS-2,Norris-4
1997-98	36	CHI	NHL	81	3	39	42	-7	151	2	1	0	0	17	22	0	205	1.5											AS-12,Norris-12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[The Pale King]

Fantasy hockey must have been a ton of fun in the 80s.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Are there any defensemen who had huge dropoffs not due to injury and such...?

i can think of a big one that is the opposite. gary suter going from his sophomore slump year of 48 pts to his career high of 91.

+43 is pretty huge for a defenseman.

of course coffey’s year two increase of 57 from 32 to 89 takes that category.

 

[GreatGonzo]

What about Gretzky in ‘95? I know it was a shortened season but to go from 130 points the previous year with an Art Ross to 48 in 48.

 

[The Panther]

What about Gretzky in ‘95? I know it was a shortened season but to go from 130 points the previous year with an Art Ross to 48 in 48.

I know the Kings sucked that year, with Sandstrom and Robitaille gone and Blake only playing half the (short) season, but I've never really understood why Gretzky was so unproductive that season. I get it in 1995-96 (when he started off hot and then, as the team crapped out, basically stopped trying while waiting to be traded), but in 1995 I don't. Especially his 37 assists in 48 games is shockingly low. Not to mention his goal-scoring completely dried up. He'd been essentially a 40-goal scorer the year before, but then to suddenly get 11 goals in 48 games...?

 

[Cursed Lemon]

Bernie Nicholls was definitely the first one I thought of.