Proposal: Big Moves for Ottawa

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Marner is not signing in Ottawa outside of a massive overpayment.

If he is willing to sign for 12M, the contract on Toronto would be done by now.

I would take the over on him being offered 14M if he goes to the open market. Whether he takes less to circle back to Toronto or go to a contender would be a different story, but I could see at least one team offering him an overpayment ala San Jose and Tavares.

 

[JTBT1227]

Batherson and 1st for Kempe

 

[BM14]

Why would Marner sign there?

 

[andora]

Take into considerations the cap projections of 95M.

July 1st UFA signings:
Mitch Marner 12M x 7y
(re-sign) Claude Giroux 2x 4.5M
(re-sign) Adam Gaudette 2x 1M
(re-sign) Nick Cousins 1x 1M
(re-sign) Leevi Merilainen 3x 2M
(re-sign) Tyler Kleven 3x 2M

Trades:
Thomas Chabot (3x 8M) to CBJ for Denton Mateychuk (2x 0.866)
Fabian Zetterlund (RFA) to (whoever) for 3rd round pick

Roster:

Tkachuk (8.21) - Stutzle (8.35) - Marner (12)
Giroux (4.5) - Cozens (7.1) - Batherson (4.98)
Grieg (3.25) - Pinto (3.75) - Perron (4)
Amadio (2.6)- Gaudette (1) - Cousins (1)

Sanderson (8) - Zub (4.6)
Mateychuk (0.866) - Jensen (4.05)
Kleven (2) - Yakemchuk (0.975)

Ullmark (8.25)
Merilainen (2)

Cap Hit: 91.481M

Marner brings some much needed offense, and while Chabot is really good (especially this year), his money needs to be moved in order to make room for Marner.

Getting a cost-controlled LHD that can move the puck for the 2nd pair, playing with Jensen, stabilizes the position. CBJ will lose Provorov this summer, need a LHD to replace him, and also have alot of cap to spare.

You re signed gaudette ?!?!

 

[TheFridge]

12 x 7 ain’t landing Marner. He’s getting 15+ if he’s not signed by the Leafs.

Marner is only getting more than Rantanen if he goes to a team like Chicago that will throw money at him. If he wants to go to a place he has a chance to win, he's not making more than 12M per. The market has already been set for him.

 

[TheFridge]

Marner is not signing in Ottawa outside of a massive overpayment.

If he is willing to sign for 12M, the contract on Toronto would be done by now.

I would take the over on him being offered 14M if he goes to the open market. Whether he takes less to circle back to Toronto or go to a contender would be a different story, but I could see at least one team offering him an overpayment ala San Jose and Tavares.

Rantanen wasn't willing to sign for 12M until he couldn't get 14M from 3 separate teams.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Rantanen wasn't willing to sign for 12M until he couldn't get 14M from 3 separate teams.

If Rantanen went to free agency, I'm sure at least one team would have offered him 14M+. He may not have wanted to sign with that team, just like how Tavares turned down San Jose.

I think the same thing will happen with Marner if he hits free agency. In the example the OP has, Marner signs with Ottawa for 12M. If Marner was willing to sign for 12M, a deal would be done in Toronto.

 

[TheFridge]

If Rantanen went to free agency, I'm sure at least one team would have offered him 14M+. He may not have wanted to sign with that team, just like how Tavares turned down San Jose.

I think the same thing will happen with Marner if he hits free agency. In the example the OP has, Marner signs with Ottawa for 12M. If Marner was willing to sign for 12M, a deal would be done in Toronto.

I'm sure there will be a few teams will go for more than 12M for Marner. None of the good teams will/will be able to.

Maybe the deal in Toronto isn't about money. The Leafs tried to trade him at the deadline after all.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I'm sure there will be a few teams will go for more than 12M for Marner. None of the good teams will/will be able to.

Maybe the deal in Toronto isn't about money. The Leafs tried to trade him at the deadline after all.

I suspect that it is about money and how what they are willing to pay him translates to the level of respect they have for his standing on their team.

As in, Marner views him and Matthews as 1A/1B, where as how the Leafs have paid each player so far shows that they view Matthews as 1A, and they see Marner/Nylander as 2A/2B. Nylander used to be 3, but rose to 2A/B with his current contract extension.

He needs to get 14.4M to match what Matthews got relative to the cap ceiling. That isn't going to happen in Toronto. So the next bump is getting slightly more than Matthews on paper like 13.5M, so he can feel like he is valued comparatively.

Ultimately, expecting Ottawa to sign Marner, let alone sign Marner for 12M is absurdly unrealistic.

 

[Kegu]

Half-price Dumba waived and buried cap hit plus replacement 7D from free agency cap hit (Perbix? Ruhwedel?) combined is probably cheaper than Matinpalo's cap hit next year. You get a pick too. Sounds good to me but what do I know? I guess how tight Ottawa's overall cap situation is would be a big factor.

How much do you think matinpalo is getting as an Rfa? I can almost guarantee that Dumba buried @ 725k and Ruhwedel at league min would be pricier than Matinpalo. Would love to pick up Perbix as a FA but I feel you're undervaluing him and probably fetches close to 2m this off season.
All of this however is moot, as Ottawa is not in a position to be taking on cap dumps, especially ones that are destined to get buried in the minors.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Take into considerations the cap projections of 95M.

July 1st UFA signings:
Mitch Marner 12M x 7y
(re-sign) Claude Giroux 2x 4.5M
(re-sign) Adam Gaudette 2x 1M
(re-sign) Nick Cousins 1x 1M
(re-sign) Leevi Merilainen 3x 2M
(re-sign) Tyler Kleven 3x 2M

Trades:
Thomas Chabot (3x 8M) to CBJ for Denton Mateychuk (2x 0.866)
Fabian Zetterlund (RFA) to (whoever) for 3rd round pick

Roster:

Tkachuk (8.21) - Stutzle (8.35) - Marner (12)
Giroux (4.5) - Cozens (7.1) - Batherson (4.98)
Grieg (3.25) - Pinto (3.75) - Perron (4)
Amadio (2.6)- Gaudette (1) - Cousins (1)

Sanderson (8) - Zub (4.6)
Mateychuk (0.866) - Jensen (4.05)
Kleven (2) - Yakemchuk (0.975)

Ullmark (8.25)
Merilainen (2)

Cap Hit: 91.481M

Marner brings some much needed offense, and while Chabot is really good (especially this year), his money needs to be moved in order to make room for Marner.

Getting a cost-controlled LHD that can move the puck for the 2nd pair, playing with Jensen, stabilizes the position. CBJ will lose Provorov this summer, need a LHD to replace him, and also have alot of cap to spare.

My math may be off but simply going off Puckpedia:

~18.5mil of cap space, 13-man roster (i.e. 10 men short)
- Trade Chabot for Mateychuk (optimistic) you add another ~7 mil of cap space
= ~25.5mil for 10 players

If you sign Marner for 12M (optimistic), that leaves 13.5 mil for 9 players.
Re-sign Giroux for 4.5 and that leaves 9 mil for 8 players.
Re-sign Meerilainen for 2M and that leaves 7 mil for 7 players.

You're not filling out the roster with 7 players making 1 mil or less if you hope to compete.

 

[Bileur]

Marner is not signing in Ottawa outside of a massive overpayment.

If he is willing to sign for 12M, the contract on Toronto would be done by now.

I would take the over on him being offered 14M if he goes to the open market. Whether he takes less to circle back to Toronto or go to a contender would be a different story, but I could see at least one team offering him an overpayment ala San Jose and Tavares.

I don’t think Marner is signing anywhere outside massive overpayment. The massive overpayment is pretty much a lock.