Better return: Horvat vs. Meier

[Empoleon8771]

Uh… what?? Do they get to play like 90 games instead of 82? Because currently they’ve played nearly 10% more games than the Sabres, Red Wings, and Penguins and are hanging onto the playoffs by a point.

Okay? They're still currently in a playoff spot. We don't know how they'll finish the year, but they are currently within a playoff spot.

Is this thread just Canucks fans trying to rationalize the Horvat return more to them? I just don't understand this thread at all. The Sharks clearly got more for Meier than the Canucks got for Horvat, which makes total sense because Meier was a way more valuable asset than Horvat due to him being a RFA at the end of the year. The Canucks did well with the Horvat return, but he didn't bring back as much as Meier.

 

[Phrasing]

Let's assume the Islanders pick 15th overall and the Devils pick 25th overall in the draft. This website lays out the value of drafts picks:

Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey

Sound Of Hockey is your new home for Seattle hockey news, coverage, and analysis. NHL | Seattle Kraken | WHL | Seattle Hockey Community

soundofhockey.com

The difference between those two picks is about a 2nd rounder at 38th overall. That lines up with the trade in the 2021 draft that sent picks 15 to Detroit for picks 23, 48 and 138.



No, that was the Devils 1st rounder that was being referred to.

Not sure about you, but a top 6 second round pick is not insignificant— and San Jose did get an extra 2nd round pick that could be a first. But Canucks gave up Horvat only and SJ did give up more than Meier, irs not clear cut but I still like SJ return.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not sure about you, but a top 6 second round pick is not insignificant— and San Jose did get an extra 2nd round pick that could be a first. But Canucks gave up Horvat only and SJ did give up more than Meier, irs not clear cut but I still like SJ return.

It's a top-6 2nd round pick vs a late 2nd with the potential to be a high second plus Zetterlund.

How is this even a debate?

 

[logan5]

Not sure how good Shakir is. He is still in Russia at this point. The 1st round picks are the huge difference makers in these trades, and it will be years before we know how those will work out. The Canucks 1st has a much better chance of becoming an impact player. If I was confident Shakir was a top 4 d man, then I would choose the San Jose package.

 

[Svencouver]

Okay? They're still currently in a playoff spot. We don't know how they'll finish the year, but they are currently within a playoff spot.

Is this thread just Canucks fans trying to rationalize the Horvat return more to them? I just don't understand this thread at all. The Sharks clearly got more for Meier than the Canucks got for Horvat, which makes total sense because Meier was a way more valuable asset than Horvat due to him being a RFA at the end of the year. The Canucks did well with the Horvat return, but he didn't bring back as much as Meier.

I voted for Meier, but it's close. I mostly voted for the NJD return because I'm high on Mukhamadullin, and low on Raty. The conditional pick doesn't make up for the difference in value in the 2023 picks imo.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I voted for Meier, but it's close. I mostly voted for the NJD return because I'm high on Mukhamadullin. The conditional pick doesn't make up for the difference in value in the 2023 picks imo.

The assets in the trade were:

-Beauvillier vs Johnsson
-Raty vs Mukhamadullin
-The Islanders 2023 1st vs the Devils 2023 1st
-Nothing vs Zetterlund, Okhotiuk and the conditional 2024 1st

I just don't even see how you can debate this. It's not even saying the Canucks got a bad return for Horvat, Meier just brought back more because he was a more valuable player. Any sort of value difference between any of the first 3 pieces (mostly the Islanders 1st vs the Devils 1st) is more than negated out by the additional pieces the Sharks got. And that's the way it should be, because Meier was more valuable than Horvat.

You're talking about the difference of an early 2nd in value between the Islanders 1st and the Devils 1st vs Zetterlund, Okhotiuk and the conditional 1st. I just don't see an argument there at all.

 

[vcanuck]

The most valuable piece in this comparison is the Islanders pick. Right now it sits at 13th, that puts you in a position to draft an Axel Sandin Pellikka or a David Reinbacher who IMO are better than any of the prospects in these trades lol.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Does a team with a mid-1st actually want to trade back in the draft? That's one aspect a draft pick value chart can't account for. It's better to have the bird in hand, imo.

 

[Phrasing]

The assets in the trade were:

-Beauvillier vs Johnsson
-Raty vs Mukhamadullin
-The Islanders 2023 1st vs the Devils 2023 1st
-Nothing vs Zetterlund, Okhotiuk and the conditional 2024 1st

I just don't even see how you can debate this. It's not even saying the Canucks got a bad return for Horvat, Meier just brought back more because he was a more valuable player. Any sort of value difference between any of the first 3 pieces (mostly the Islanders 1st vs the Devils 1st) is more than negated out by the additional pieces the Sharks got. And that's the way it should be, because Meier was more valuable than Horvat.

You're talking about the difference of an early 2nd in value between the Islanders 1st and the Devils 1st vs Zetterlund, Okhotiuk and the conditional 1st. I just don't see an argument there at all.

I agree Meier got more but SJ gave up more than Meier.

 

[SillyRabbit]

Meier returned more but he was the better asset.

If the question was "who got more value for their asset" then I think Horvat would win.

The fact that the Devils didn't have to give up any of Holtz, Hughes, Mercer, Casey or Nemec is actually pretty insane.

They didn't even have room for most of these players on their roster anyway.

 

[biturbo19]

Meier returned more but he was the better asset.

If the question was "who got more value for their asset" then I think Horvat would win.

The fact that the Devils didn't have to give up any of Holtz, Hughes, Mercer, Casey or Nemec is actually pretty insane.

They didn't even have room for most of these players on their roster anyway.

Yeah. It's absolutely wild to me that there wasn't a better "centerpiece" to the Meier deal. I'm not even sure what the main piece is. It's just a whole smorgasbord of B grade stuff.


That NYI 1st has the potential to be the best piece out of all these assets. The sheer quantity of the Devils package is probably enough to outweigh the difference from the NYI 1st to the NJD 1st. But if you're judging by the centerpiece...all things considered, i guess it's impressive that Vancouver got a better main piece than the Sharks did for Meier.

 

[leafsfan5]

C.) Jeannot

 

[Hisch13r]

Meier

 

[lawrence]

Yeah. It's absolutely wild to me that there wasn't a better "centerpiece" to the Meier deal. I'm not even sure what the main piece is. It's just a whole smorgasbord of B grade stuff.


That NYI 1st has the potential to be the best piece out of all these assets. The sheer quantity of the Devils package is probably enough to outweigh the difference from the NYI 1st to the NJD 1st. But if you're judging by the centerpiece...all things considered, i guess it's impressive that Vancouver got a better main piece than the Sharks did for Meier.

Meier just brought back more because he was a more valuable player.

Horvat has more goals more assists, fewer games, is better a plus-minus, and plays centre and wing, he is on their top pp unit, however, is not the number 1 line guy, 5v5 he's not with Pettersson that often. Medier doesn't have A or C on his jersey, so not even considered on the leadership squad of the San Jose sharks yet somehow he's more valuable, I guess if we going by age, ok than, if that's the argument none from me.

hows he a more valuable player?

Its hard to gauge, unless we look into every prospect the sharks and devils game up, nobody recognizes those names.

but in reality, I do expect Meir to get a higher return, since he is currently labled a 1st line player, a non ufa and hes only 25. He would have easily much more than pending UFA Horvat.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Depends how you’re looking at it. If you’re just comparing returns the Meier return is clearly better. When you take the value of Horvat vs Meier in account it’s a different debate.

 

[Rompane]

This will look stupid when Raty becomes the goat

 

[ninetyeight]

I would rank the assets like this:

NYI 1st
NJ 2023 1st
NJ 2024 2nd*
Shakir
Beauvillier
Zetterlund
Raty

Mukhamadullin is getting seriously underrated and picks are getting way overrated. Mukhamadullin is the main piece from Devils in the Meier trade and it's not close. In fact I'm gonna go ahead and predict that he'll end up having the best career out of all the guys mentioned here among whoever gets drafted with the picks including the NYI one regardless if they make the playoffs. If you just heard about Mukhamadullin this week, that's on you. It's fine if you guys disagree, but before you reply, go check out who got drafted in the bottom half of first rounds in the last decade or so. Most won't even play 100 games in the NHL.

 

[rypper]

Canucks retained 25% not 50.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

Kind of odd poll, we have no idea what the main piece for Vancouver is yet.

If its 13 in a deep draft, canucks win, if its a top 10 next year, canucks win, if its a late 1st next year, NJ wins

NJ making the ECF in the next two seasons, although very low in the round, makes it two shots at the bucket or two trade chips. 13th overall being good enough to outweigh the value of two picks of, say, 24th and 29th, is a tall order (though expected when comparing picks before they're made of course).

For example, some names within 24th and 15-20 picks of the last 1st (and were being fair to recent drafts.. late round picks usually take a while) you have: Robertson, Thompson, Debrincat, Aho, Kyrou, Hintz, Konecny, Pastrnak, Mantha, Burakovsky.. and thats just forwards! Defense (and goalies) you have: Theodore, Demko, Vanecek, Carlo, Cernak, Girard, Oettinger, Fehervary, Jokiharju (and if you stretch another 10 picks down you have some gems in Hronek, Andersson, and Montour).

Not to mention you can always trade the two picks in packages, hence the question of course lol.

This will be a wait-and-see approach for this question. I dont think you can safely answer it any which way, even if it ends up being 13th. Today Id trade a 24th and 28th for 13th, but the odds of the 13th pick actually being more valuable than the duo down the line are low if I had to guess.

 

[wetcoast]

The Meier return is probably better, but Beauvillier has been way better than advertised and is getting back to form, with 4G and 4A in 10 games so far. If we can get someone like Reinbacher with 13OA I'd consider the deals pretty competitive, let alone if the NYI pick gets pushed to 2024. The difference in value between late 1sts and early firsts/mid firsts in a deep draft like this is significant. Big fan of Shak though.

Watch Detroit draft Reinbacher with that pick and the lament in Vancouver will be of Virtanen proportions.