Better return: Horvat vs. Meier

[Love]

Horvat:

1st (23 or 24)
Aatu Raty
Anthony Beauvillier


Meier:

2023 1st
2024 2nd*
Shakir Mukhamadullin
Fabian Zetterlund
Andreas Johnsson


Both teams retained 50% on Horvat and Meier.

I would rank the assets like this:

NYI 1st
NJ 2023 1st
NJ 2024 2nd*
Shakir
Beauvillier
Zetterlund
Raty

NJ got Harrington too but I’m not sure how much his worth changed the return.

 

[Svencouver]

The Meier return is probably better, but Beauvillier has been way better than advertised and is getting back to form, with 4G and 4A in 10 games so far. If we can get someone like Reinbacher with 13OA I'd consider the deals pretty competitive, let alone if the NYI pick gets pushed to 2024. The difference in value between late 1sts and early firsts/mid firsts in a deep draft like this is significant. Big fan of Shak though.

 

[Icebreakers]

Obviously Meier has the better return

He was also the more premium asset.

 

[Oliewud]

Meier was RFA not UFA as well.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Canucks if they get the 13th overall pick with the Islanders 1st. Essentially a top 10 pick from a deep draft.

Beauvillier right now > Zetterlund, Johnsson, Harrington

Shakir > Beauvillier, Raty

2023 13-15th overall > 23/24 1st round pick that is between 25 to 32.

I would say Canucks.

 

[Love]

Canucks if they get the 13th overall pick with the Islanders 1st. Essentially a top 10 pick from a deep draft.

Beauvillier right now > Zetterlund, Johnsson, Harrington

Shakir > Beauvillier, Raty

2023 13-15th overall > 23/24 1st round pick that is between 25 to 32.

I would say Canucks.

Well I agree a lot depends on that NYI 1st. But it’s a lottery ticket.

 

[LemonSauceD]

So it’s a 2024 2nd unless the Devils either this year or next year make it to the ECF. If they do, it becomes a 2023 1st or 2024 1st depending on which year they make the ECF. If they don’t, it’s a 2024 2nd.

Horvat trade AINEC

 

[Love]

So it’s a 2024 2nd unless the Devils either this year or next year make it to the ECF. If they do, it becomes a 2023 1st or 2024 1st depending on which year they make the ECF. If they don’t, it’s a 2024 2nd.

Horvat trade AINEC

Yeah so it’s probably a 2nd. Interesting. I’ll edit my post.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Meier objectively returned more and I have no clue how Horvat has any votes here.

 

[Svencouver]

Meier objectively returned more and I have no clue how Horvat has any votes here.

13th in the draft is better than a pick that is later in the draft

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Meier for sure, surprised this needs a poll, RFA us UFA.

Theres an outside chance the VAN return turns out better given the draft pick, but Meier got alot more solid pieces.

 

[Empoleon8771]

13th in the draft is better than a pick that is later in the draft

Why will that 1st end up 13th overall? The Islanders are currently in a playoff spot.

The Meier return is obviously more and the marginal difference between the Islanders 1st and the Devils 1st doesn't outweight Meier also bringing back Zetterlund, Okhotiuk and the 2nd that Meier also brings back.

Johnsson and Mukhamadullin cancel out Beauvillier and Raty IMO. That leaves the Islanders 1st vs the Devils 1st, Zetterlund, Okhotiuk and the Devils conditional 2024 2nd. It's obviously the Meier package that has the advantage there.

 

[Love]

Why will that 1st end up 13th overall? The Islanders are currently in a playoff spot.

Lol

 

[Goatlender]

The NYI’s 1st is by far the most valuable asset in either trade. Will likely be a mid 1st in a stacked draft

 

[LemonSauceD]

Why will that 1st end up 13th overall? The Islanders are currently in a playoff spot.

The Meier return is obviously more and the marginal difference between the Islanders 1st and the Devils 1st doesn't outweight Meier also bringing back Zetterlund, Okhotiuk and the 2nd that Meier also brings back.

Johnsson and Mukhamadullin cancel out Beauvillier and Raty IMO. That leaves the Islanders 1st vs the Devils 1st, Zetterlund, Okhotiuk and the Devils conditional 2024 2nd. It's obviously the Meier package that has the advantage there.

You do realize drafting 13-15th overall and drafting in the mid 20’s, early 30’s, especially in a deep draft, is not a marginal difference. That’s a huge difference.

 

[Svencouver]

Why will that 1st end up 13th overall? The Islanders are currently in a playoff spot.

The Meier return is obviously more and the marginal difference between the Islanders 1st and the Devils 1st doesn't outweight Meier also bringing back Zetterlund, Okhotiuk and the 2nd that Meier also brings back.

The pick is currently #13 by P%. They've played more games than multiple teams ahead of them atm.

It's not guaranteed that they pick in the #13-16 range, but it's the number I'm currently using based on their current spot in the standings. Barzal is out indefinitely, to make matters worse for their playoff hopes. It's potentially better for the Canucks if we do get their pick this year, so I'm not basing my take on a potential Byram situation either.

 

[Phrasing]

Why will that 1st end up 13th overall? The Islanders are currently in a playoff spot.

The Meier return is obviously more and the marginal difference between the Islanders 1st and the Devils 1st doesn't outweight Meier also bringing back Zetterlund, Okhotiuk and the 2nd that Meier also brings back.

Johnsson and Mukhamadullin cancel out Beauvillier and Raty IMO. That leaves the Islanders 1st vs the Devils 1st, Zetterlund, Okhotiuk and the Devils conditional 2024 2nd. It's obviously the Meier package that has the advantage there.

I’ll say the difference isn’t marginal in terms of probability of where the teams are ranked (eg think of the past how much it costs teams to move up 10 spots in the draft in the first round).

But Meier return is better and should be because he’s younger and an RFA rather than an UFA. Objectively the other parts of the return for SJ are more appealing then Beau or Raty.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Lol

Uh....okay?

They are the 7th seed in the East right now. Therefore their pick won't be 13th overall if they stick with where they're currently at.

You do realize drafting 13-15th overall and drafting in the mid 20’s, early 30’s is not a marginal difference.

Why are we acting like the Devils 1st rounder is going to be early 30s?

 

[Svencouver]

Uh....okay?

They are the 7th seed in the East right now. Therefore their pick won't be 13th overall if they stick with where they're currently at.



Why are we acting like the Devils 1st rounder is going to be early 30s?

Early 30s is in reference to the 2nd the conditional 1st will turn into if the Devils dont make the conference finals this year or next. That's not something I'd put above a 20% chance of happening given the current strength of the East. If they do make the conference finals (or make it further) that's where it'll end up even if it doesn't transfer, unless they make it this year and completely fall apart next year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I’ll say the difference isn’t marginal in terms of probability of where the teams are ranked (eg think of the past how much it costs teams to move up 10 spots in the draft in the first round).

But Meier return is better and should be because he’s younger and an RFA rather than an UFA. Objectively the other parts of the return for SJ are more appealing then Beau or Raty.

Let's assume the Islanders pick 15th overall and the Devils pick 25th overall in the draft. This website lays out the value of drafts picks:

Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey

Sound Of Hockey is your new home for Seattle hockey news, coverage, and analysis. NHL | Seattle Kraken | WHL | Seattle Hockey Community

soundofhockey.com

The difference between those two picks is about a 2nd rounder at 38th overall. That lines up with the trade in the 2021 draft that sent picks 15 to Detroit for picks 23, 48 and 138. I think it's very clear that Zetterlund and that conditional 2nd outweighs that value comfortably.

Early 30s is in reference to the 2nd the conditional 1st will turn into if the devils dont make the conference finals this year or next. That's not something I'd put above a 20% chance of happening given the current strength of the East.

No, that was the Devils 1st rounder that was being referred to.

 

[Canucks LB]

Kind of odd poll, we have no idea what the main piece for Vancouver is yet.

If its 13 in a deep draft, canucks win, if its a top 10 next year, canucks win, if its a late 1st next year, NJ wins

 

[Three On Zero]

Vancouver got the top assets, San Jose got the better overall assets

 

[Voight]

At face value Horvat returns as fair, Meier return seems very underwhelming.

 

[Love]

Uh....okay?

Uh… what? Do they get to play like 90 games instead of 82? Because currently they’ve played nearly 10% more games than the Sabres, Red Wings, and Penguins and are hanging onto the playoffs by a point.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Why will that 1st end up 13th overall? The Islanders are currently in a playoff spot.

The Pens got 4 games in hand with the Isles only having 2 more points, the Sabres got 5 games in hand with the Isles only having 3 more points. Sure, they're in a playoff spot for the time being but that's by virtue of having played more games.