Better Prime: Evgeni Malkin Or Leon Draisaitl?

[Sidney the Kidney]

I have absolutely 0 problem with people saying Peak Malkin > Peak Drai, because as someone who watched both in the "prime" of my own hockey fandom, he was arguably more dominant than even Ovi and Sid when he was on.

I have the same quips as you though, this is a prime argument and how is a guy that was injury riddled for so much of his career considered better than a guy that is this consistent? People just have memories from Malkins dominant peak etched into their minds and come in saying "AINEC".

Again, I think this is a very close argument and by the time Drai's career is complete, especially if it's with a Cup and potential Smythe (or just maintaining anywhere near his current playoff performances) he will go down as better.


So Prime is 2-3 years now? Since when? Isn't that what Peak would be?

Naturalstattrick only does 3 year chunks, so I used the latest three seasons because the poster I quoted mentioned Draisaitl has been playing less and less with McDavid recently and because that stretch (I used 4 years for Malkin) was Malkin's prime years. But if you think Draisaitl's rates improve away from McDavid if you go further than 3 years or if you think Malkin becomes more dependent on Crosby if you include a 6 or 7 year span, by all means. Post the numbers to prove I'm wrong about McDavid having a bigger impact on Draisaitl's numbers than Crosby has on Malkin's.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Naturalstattrick only does 3 year chunks, so I used the latest three seasons because the poster I quoted mentioned Draisaitl has been playing less and less with McDavid recently and because that stretch (I used 4 years for Malkin) was Malkin's prime years. But if you think Draisaitl's rates improve away from McDavid if you go further than 3 years or if you think Malkin becomes more dependent on Crosby if you include a 6 or 7 year span, by all means. Post the numbers to prove I'm wrong about McDavid having a bigger impact on Draisaitl's numbers than Crosby has on Malkin's.

That's fine, I honestly don't like the argument to begin with and it's been proven to be disingenuous based on Drai's production in the playoffs. Minimizing guys because they play with other amazing players is silly to me, across sports. "Stacking" lines has been around for all of history, and context is often needed into the reasons why certain guys end up doing it more often. Does it make Drai a lesser player because him and McDavid have such good chemistry together and fit each others' skillset better than Malkin/Sid?

My main point is how is a guy who basically had 3/5 prime seasons, all before 25, better than a guy who has had 6 straight, soon to be 7? Guess we need to define prime, but I've never heard of prime being 3 years, that's generally what Peak is.

 

[Video Nasty]

You’re significantly underrating Malkin’s prime after 25. His top 10 PPG finishes after 25 (2,7,4,3,3,6) aren’t that far off Draisaitl’s PPG finishes over the last 6 years (4,1,2,4,2,7), and he lead the playoffs in scoring at 30. Also he was way better than Draisaitl early so even if we say Draisaitl’s better after 25, he needs to be in order to be better. Draisaitl’s health is a big positive, but Malkin was still in the top tier of elite players until his early 30s, he just missed time.

I’m sure we’ve done this dance before. You’re okay with weighing partial seasons against full campaigns. I’m not. One guy missed 97 games between ages 26-30, which was 26% of the schedule. The other has missed 5 total so far, mainly due to rest. There’s also no realm where Malkin was actually a top 5 player in any season post age 25. He had the rep as top 3 for awhile, because that’s something that doesn’t evaporate overnight and it was a very weak era for top end talent. If we look at it objectively, it’s been thirteen years since he actually performed as one. I don’t care that Malkin had one last gasp in 2017-2018.

 

[Connor McConnor]

You’re significantly underrating Malkin’s prime after 25. His top 10 PPG finishes after 25 (2,7,4,3,3,6) aren’t that far off Draisaitl’s PPG finishes over the last 6 years (4,1,2,4,2,7), and he lead the playoffs in scoring at 30. Also he was way better than Draisaitl early so even if we say Draisaitl’s better after 25, he needs to be in order to be better. Draisaitl’s health is a big positive, but Malkin was still in the top tier of elite players until his early 30s, he just missed time.

Go look at the players he was going against in age 26-30. The league had a talent drain at forward. Those PPG finishes are not as impressive as you think when he's going against Benn, Seguin, Giroux etc.

 

[KareemTrustfund]

I’m sure we’ve done this dance before. You’re okay with weighing partial seasons against full campaigns. I’m not. One guy missed 97 games between ages 26-30, which was 26% of the schedule. The other has missed 5 total so far, mainly due to rest. There’s also no realm where Malkin was actually a top 5 player in any season post age 25. He had the rep as top 3 for awhile, because that’s something that doesn’t evaporate overnight and it was a very weak era for top end talent. If we look at it objectively, it’s been thirteen years since he actually performed as one. I don’t care that Malkin had one last gasp in 2017-2018.

13/14, 16/17, 17/18, 19/20 he was a top five player.

 

[Ben White]

Draisaitl is clearly ahead at their peaks. 55 goals vs 50 and 128 points vs 113.

He’s also ahead at their prime with 3 50 goal seasons to Malkin’s 1, and 5 100 point seasons to Malkin’s 3. Even if you try and use the benefit of the doubt with Malkin’s health, he still was only flirting with it at times, and nothing like the lockout season of Draisaitl where he paced for over 120.

Even playoffs doesn’t benefit the argument for Malkin as his career PPG (1.02) isn’t close to Draisaitl (1.46), and he’s never come close to being 2 PPG which Draisaitl did

Ever heard of era adjusted numbers?

 

[Regal]

Go look at the players he was going against in age 26-30. The league had a talent drain at forward. Those PPG finishes are not as impressive as you think when he's going against Benn, Seguin, Giroux etc.

That’s part of it. But he also basically matched Crosby’s PPG over those 5 years and then there was a gap to Kane and another gap to those players. I made a post earlier but essentially his PPG was 6% better than Kane and 13% better than the pack (Benn, Tavares, Seguin, etc) Draisaitl the last 5 has been behind McDavid and roughly equal to Kucherov and MacKinnln, then 10% better than Panarin and 17% better than the pack (Matthews, Pastrnak, Rantanen, etc). I’m not saying it’s equal to Draisaitl’s last 6 years, but it wasn’t his peak and he was still really freakin’ good.

 

[KareemTrustfund]

Go look at the players he was going against in age 26-30. The league had a talent drain at forward. Those PPG finishes are not as impressive as you think when he's going against Benn, Seguin, Giroux etc.

Those same players that played during this “talent drain” all had career years after 17/18 when the goalie gear shrank. Stamkos, Huberdeau, Nugent Hopkins, Kessel, Giroux , Kopitar and every Defenceman you can think of like Karlsson and Josi and Burns and Hedman and Letang ALL after 17/18 when the goalie gear shrank.. the list goes on and on. It became easier , simply put. They all find the fountain of talent in their old age? Come on. It’s not a talent thing, it’s very simply the goalie gear.

Why didn’t Kucherov and MacK eat up this league as young players like Malkin and Crosby and Ovechkin? Kucherov took forever to hit his stride.

But to assume there was a talent drain when half the hundred point guys now played during this talent drain seems disingenuous.

 

[Video Nasty]

13/14, 16/17, 17/18, 19/20 he was a top five player.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Those same players that played during this “talent drain” all had career years after 17/18 when the goalie gear shrank. Stamkos, Huberdeau, Nugent Hopkins, Kessel, Giroux , Kopitar and every Defenceman you can think of like Karlsson and Josi and Burns and Hedman and Letang ALL after 17/18 when the goalie gear shrank.. the list goes on and on. It became easier , simply put. They all find the fountain of talent in their old age? Come on. It’s not a talent thing, it’s very simply the goalie gear.

Why didn’t Kucherov and MacK eat up this league as young players like Malkin and Crosby and Ovechkin? Kucherov took forever to hit his stride.

But to assume there was a talent drain when half the hundred point guys now played during this talent drain seems disingenuous.

That's why I didn't use total points and rather PPG in comparison to peers. If you think the talent was comparable at forward that's your own prerogative. I would say it's not even close.

 

[Regal]

I’m sure we’ve done this dance before. You’re okay with weighing partial seasons against full campaigns. I’m not. One guy missed 97 games between ages 26-30, which was 26% of the schedule. The other has missed 5 total so far, mainly due to rest. There’s also no realm where Malkin was actually a top 5 player in any season post age 25. He had the rep as top 3 for awhile, because that’s something that doesn’t evaporate overnight and it was a very weak era for top end talent. If we look at it objectively, it’s been thirteen years since he actually performed as one. I don’t care that Malkin had one last gasp in 2017-2018.

I mean fair enough, but I just don’t see the point of combining ability and health when discussing these things. We’re talking about a pretty significant sample of play to determine his ability. How much we want to dock him for health is a separate issue

 

[Connor McConnor]

That’s part of it. But he also basically matched Crosby’s PPG over those 5 years and then there was a gap to Kane and another gap to those players. I’m not saying it’s equal to Draisaitl’s last 6 years, but it wasn’t his peak and he was still really freakin’ good.

He definitely was still really good no denying that, and if we are talking pure talent he's ahead of almost every player currently playing. Fact of the matter is, you need to actually play the games though, and unfortunately for him he was injured too much

 

[Video Nasty]

I mean fair enough, but I just don’t see the point of combining ability and health when discussing these things. We’re talking about a pretty significant sample of play to determine his ability. How much we want to dock him for health is a separate issue

Great. As noted before, Draisaitl is in the midst of a stretch where he’s played virtually every game and is in legitimate contention for top 5 status year in and year out, for seven seasons running, in a league that is stuffed to the gills with talent. It’s not wild that someone is going to favor that, over a handful of seasons, broken up and spread out over the course of an entire career.

I feel like some are voting for a version of Malkin that barely existed or didn’t exist at all. I am one of those people who think that there was a stretch or two where he topped Crosby and Ovechkin’s best stretches of play. But it was so fleeting. A healthy Malkin has his career unfold completely different, to the point where it is an interchangeable Big Three of that era, where maybe he gets picked as the best 30% of the time. That’s not how reality played out though.

 

[KareemTrustfund]

That's why I didn't use total points and rather PPG in comparison to peers. If you think the talent was comparable at forward that's your own prerogative. I would say it's not even close.

My point was you’re saying the talent is so much better now yet it’s much of the same players now with much higher PPG finishes then they ever got during their primes. Almost like it’s easier to score or something.

This argument is weird to me.

Huberdeau and RNH and JT Miller hitting 100 points when Drai is doing it. How’s that more impressive competition than when Malkin was doing it?

 

[Ben White]

I don’t think they’r comparable. Draisaitl has never carried a team, let alone carried a team to a cup which Malkin’s had. Drai was never in a #1a/#1b center situation with McDavid like Malkin was with Crosby. Drai was also not seen as a top tier talent when entering the league. Sheltered behind a top 5 talent all time he was later on able to find his game and is now seen as a superstar.

Playing behind McDavid is huge. He has transformed the “big 4” into the “big 5”.

After that there’s a pretty significant gap to the Crosbys, Jagrs, Lindroses, Forsbergs, Richards, Dionnes, Lidstroms, Bourques, Kharlamovs, Makarovs, Ovechkins, Fetisovs, Espositos, Bobby Hulls, Lafleurs, Malkins etc.

Then there’s another pretty significant gap to the Sakices, Yzermans, Kariyas, Selannes, Kurris, Modanos. Iginlas, Thorntons, Datsyuks, Sedins, Oateses, Francises, Draisaitls etc.

The list above is about talent not career.

 

[McPoyle]

For prime this is Drai. You can argue Malkin has a higher peak. Malkin has a better trophy case and overall career value. But for prime its no question Draisaitl, and his prime is still ongoing. Drai has an unbroken stretch great hockey going back to 2017. Malkin, due mostly to injury cannot match that.

Drais prime so far (with a historic pandemic shortening 2 seasons during it):
5 100 point seasons. 17th all time, behind only McDavid and Crosby for active players.
3 50 goal seasons. Only Ovi has more among active players.
3 50-50 seasons. Only Ovi has as many this century.

Drai top 5 finishes (10 seasons)
Goals of 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, 5
Assists 1, 2, 3
Points 1, 2, 2, 4, 4


Malkins prime was:
2 100 point seasons
1 50 goal season
1 50-50 season

Malkin top 5 finishes (18 seasons)
Goals 2, 4, 4
Assists 1, 3
Points 1, 1, 2, 3, 4

 

[Three On Zero]

Over the past 3 seasons, McDavid has been on the ice for 230 of Draisaitl's 334 total points. That's around 69% of Draisaitl's offense comes when he plays with McDavid.

During Malkin's stretch from 2007/2008 to 2009/2010, when he was scoring 100+ points, Crosby had been on the ice for 157 of Malkin's 296 total points. That's around 53% of his offense with Crosby on the ice. If you include Malkin's 2011/12 Art Ross winning season, where Crosby missed 60 games, those totals bump up to 174 points out of 405 total points, for roughly 43% of his offense during that 4-year stretch with Crosby on the ice.

As far as linemates at 5on5 without McDavid, Draisaitl's most common linemates (not including McDavid) over that 3 year time period are Hyman, Yamamoto, E. Kane and RNH. The only bottom sixer that comes close to those 4 is Foegele. Every other player you mentioned got minimal minutes with Draisaitl.

For comparison's sake, Malkin's most common linemates (not including Crosby) over the stretch I listed above are Sykora, Fedotenko, Malone and Dupuis for the 2007-2010 stretch, and then Kunitz, Neal, S. Sullivan and Dupuis during the 2011-12 season.

So essentially it's Hyman, Kane, RNH, Yamamoto and Foegele versus Neal, Kunitz, Fedotenko, Sykora, Malone and Dupuis. And during that time Malkin scored 57% of his points away from Crosby while Draisaitl has only scored 31% of his points away from McDavid.

Oilers fans can "laugh emoji" at my post all they want. But the actual numbers speak for themselves. Draisaitl hasn't proven he can score at this rate without McDavid, while Malkin has shown he can score at his same rate away from Crosby. Just look at the actual numbers because I know people like to just look at the avatar and think this is based on opinion.

 

[Duke74]

Huberdeau and RNH and JT Miller hitting 100 points when Drai is doing it. How’s that more impressive competition than when Malkin was doing it?

The difference is that the bolded players achieved 100 points once whereas Draisaitl has achieved it five times, which speaks to consistency.

 

[KareemTrustfund]

The difference is that the bolded players achieved 100 points once whereas Draisaitl has achieved it five times, which speaks to consistency.

Im not comparing them directly to Drai. My point is simply to illustrate that the quality of competition isn’t much different now as it was when Malkin was doing it. It just seems like it is because there way more 100 point seasons by players now than there was before the goalie gear shrank. Roughly there are about the same amount of 100 point players in a given year now as there were of PPG+ players 13 years ago. In fact , the league quadrupled its ppg players when the goalie gear shrank. So when I read that it’s “just way more offensive talent now” from others it kind of gets an eye roll from me. All these guys hitting 100 wouldn’t be sniffing it ten years ago, and I mean many of them played then and didn’t sniff it. Kucherov didn’t do shit until 17/18 when he was 25 yrs old but he at least put up an extremely impressive 144 , which is comparable to the elite Malkin, Crosby and Ovechkin years. So when you look at 128 for Drai compared to Malkin’s 109 in 75 gp (~120 if all games played) when taking into account all the above, it’s very easy to see Malkin’s is more impressive.

Draisaitls 110, and two 106 seasons would be akin to a low 90 point season back then. 100 is basically today’s ppg.

 

[BertMcDrai]

Draisaitl has struggled to play late in playoffs. A lot is injuries, but a lot of it is just being outhustled.

Over the last three series the Oilers have been eliminated in.

Against Avs 2022
McDavid: 4 GP 3 G 4 A 7 P -4
Draisaitl: 4 GP 0 G 6 A 6 P -3

Against Knights 2023
McDavid: 6 GP 5 G 5 A 10 P +0
Draisaitl: 6 GP 6 G 1 A 7 P -5

Against Panthers 2024
McDavid: 7 GP 3 G 8 A 11 P +5
Draisaitl: 7 GP 0 G 3 A 3 P -2

Overall
McDavid: 17 GP 11 G 17 A 26 P +1
Draisaitl: 17 GP 6 G 10 A 16 P -10

Injuries are a part of the playoffs. I think part of it is Draisaitl plays too much. McDavid is given extra minutes and thrives. Draisaitl gets extra minutes and gets hurt.


That Malkin outplayed Crosby at critical Stanley Cup series is a big part of his legacy.

Draisaitl has outplayed McD in every playoff run until he got injured...he is also been used much more in defensive situations (defensive zone faceoffs for example).
Against the Avs is the only elimination series where he wasn't heavily injured and he was 1.5ppg in this series.
You clearly haven't followed these playoff runs which is ok for a non Oilers fan.

 

[Regal]

Draisaitl has outplayed McD in every playoff run until he got injured...

That’s been mostly true but McDavid was much better in 2022 despite Draisaitl’s points against Calgary

 

[BertMcDrai]

McDavid was much better in 2022.

Maybe in this run...but in every run before and after not. (Until hurt).