Better Player in their 30s - Ovechkin or Crosby

[Lafleurs Guy]

Whatever man, keep it up

You can't give a reason why OV is a better player than Crosby besides more goals.

I'm not going to engage in any kind of discussion when people dodge points. If you can't acknowledge one guy's strength then there's no discussion to be had.

It's absolutely ludicrous to just sluff off goals as though they aren't important.

 

[hamzarocks]

I'm not going to engage in any kind of discussion when people dodge points. If you can't acknowledge one guy's strength then there's no discussion to be had.

It's absolutely ludicrous to just sluff off goals as though they aren't important.

Good for you, you don't have any points to argue and just repeat the same comments. Waste of time engaging with you when your not even pretending to hide your biases.

Nothing crazy about saying OV a career 40 assist guy and 89 pt player falls behind Crosby a carer 38 goal guy and 102 pt player. All this before considering playoff play.

Goals don't make up for production. Not when there is a ~15 pt gap for the center with better playoff numbers.

Its good to know you will have Matthews as a top 10-15 player all time when he gets to 750-800 goals by the end of his career

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Good for you, you don't have any points to argue and just repeat the same comments.

I stopped reading there.

You've said I'm a fanboy. You've done everything but engage in discussion. Again, look at my first post. Not the mark of a fanboy to say both have been amazing and you could go with either.

Don't want to talk about goals? Okay. Then you're not really interested in a real discussion. I'm not going to sit here as you dodge and weave... it's a waste of time.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I'm not going to engage in any kind of discussion when people dodge points. If you can't acknowledge one guy's strength then there's no discussion to be had.

It's absolutely ludicrous to just sluff off goals as though they aren't important.

Yep, last year MVP was the person with the most goals not the most points, and the most points had over 100 assists, and still lost.
So the dude that is only about points, wonder how poster explains that, and it was only a year ago.

Saying the league is strictly about points is ludicrous.

 

[jalapenoWithAnH]

I stopped reading

Yeah, we've noticed.

 

[TheLegend27]

Yeah it's not like Crosby won the Conn Smythe for 2/3 of their Cup runs lol...

0 goals in the finals and second in points behind Phil Kessel. Crosby played like a top 20 player in the league and won, that’s how stacked the Pens team was.

 

[pi314]

Having stacked teams where you don’t have to preform like the best player certainly helps. Maybe you’re right, he definitely carried underdog team Canada to the gold.

Yes because he’s only won playing for Canada and had nothing to do with any of those wins. /s

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

20 years later and Crosby vs Ovechkin threads still dominate the front page of hfboards

 

[jalapenoWithAnH]

0 goals in the finals and second in points behind Phil Kessel. Crosby played like a top 20 player in the league and won, that’s how stacked the Pens team was.

Imagine being this uninformed and writing with such cockiness smh

• In each of the Cup run he was the second best scorer on his team in playoffs
• During their first Cup run he scored the most goals and won the most faceoffs for his team in the playoffs
• During their second Cup run he scored most game winning goals and won the most faceoffs for his team in the playoffs
• During their third Cup run he scored the most assists and won the most faceoffs for his team in the playoffs. He also won Rocket during the regular season this year

This is the part where you delete your message as to avoid creating embarrasment for you and your family until the end of times.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I would like to see a more quantitative argument, with statistical evidence, that demonstrates his effectiveness without the puck.

I don't think anybody should claim that Crosby's defense (in isolation) is anything special. In other words, his pure shutdown ability (which is how players like Bob Gainey and Guy Carbonneau contributed) is roughly average.

But, what ultimately matters is how much a player improves his team's goal differential. Here's a post where I do a deep dive into Crosby's two-way play. I looked at 15 of the highest scoring forwards from the 2010's, and evaluated how their teams performed (at even strength) when they're on vs off the ice. A young Connor McDavid ranked first, but Crosby was second (he was immediately ahead of three centers who are widely accepted as excellent two-way players - Bergeron, Toews and Kopitar).

Overall, Pittsburgh performed vastly better when Crosby was on the ice (their ratio of goals for to goals against was about 38% higher). Having looked at this for previous decades, this is near the limit of what a single forward can do. It was the result of elite offense and adequate defense. So, the critics who claim that Crosby wasn't anything special defensively are right. But that's also irrelevant - a star player should make their team better when they're on the ice, and few players in NHL history have done that as effectively as Crosby.

(An important note - the data in that post is now five years out of date. At some point, I'll update it for the 2020's).

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I don't think anybody should claim that Crosby's defense (in isolation) is anything special. In other words, his pure shutdown ability (which is how players like Bob Gainey and Guy Carbonneau contributed) is roughly average.

But, what ultimately matters is how much a player improves his team's goal differential. Here's a post where I do a deep dive into Crosby's two-way play. I looked at 15 of the highest scoring forwards from the 2010's, and evaluated how their teams performed (at even strength) when they're on vs off the ice. A young Connor McDavid ranked first, but Crosby was second (he was immediately ahead of three centers who are widely accepted as excellent two-way players - Bergeron, Toews and Kopitar).

Overall, Pittsburgh performed vastly better when Crosby was on the ice (their ratio of goals for to goals against was about 38% higher). Having looked at this for previous decades, this is near the limit of what a single forward can do. It was the result of elite offense and adequate defense. So, the critics who claim that Crosby wasn't anything special defensively are right. But that's also irrelevant - a star player should make their team better when they're on the ice, and few players in NHL history have done that as effectively as Crosby).

(An important note - the data in that post is now five years out of date. At some point, I'll update it for the 2020's).

The interesting thing about Advanced Stats is that they're supposed to provide a measurement of how well a team is tilting the ice when the player is on. There are obviously limitations (linemates, teams etc...) but that's the case with any stats and you can always look at relative numbers to help isolate things.

Goals are relatively rare events. That's why the shot numbers are useful in that it captures the play itself. But there's a lot to be said for someone who's that effective at scoring goals. That's the whole purpose of shooting the puck in the first place. With the exception of last year, Ovechkin has consistently been in the top ten for goals almost every season, usually in the top five. He'd have another Rocket this year if he'd been healthy. It's absurd how effective he's been.

Where OV would likely falter - and I haven't looked at his stats - is in giving up shots (opportunuties against.) Even if Crosby is only average at D, I'd expect OV to be below. I think Crosby's play is better overall but Ovechkin's goals are so insane that you can't ignore it. 16 top ten goal seasons and 15 of them are in the top five... That's unfathomable.

 

[TheLegend27]

Imagine being this uninformed and writing with suck cockyness smh

• In each of the Cup run he was the second best scorer on his team in playoffs
• During their first Cup run he scored the most goals and won the most faceoffs for his team in the playoffs
• During their second Cup run he scored most game winning goals and won the most faceoffs for his team in the playoffs
• During their third Cup run he scored the most assists and won the most faceoffs for his team in the playoffs. He also won Rocket during the regular season this year

This is the part where you delete your message as to avoid creating embarrasment for you and your family until the end of times.

Take a look at how McDavid performed in 2024 playoffs and Crosby in 2016 and tell me with a straight face how Crosby contributed more to winning. Crosby with that kinda of preformance crashes out of the playoffs unless he’s on an extremely deep team such as those Penguins. That’s why I don’t like the “cups are everything” argument. Some guys have to play at a much higher level to win than others.

In each of the Cup run he was the second best scorer on his team in playoffs

So in other words, a luxury most all time greats don’t have. The history rewriting has gone too way too far. Crosby routinely takes credit while not contributing how superstars should. For example in 2010 where he was given credit for winning the tournament while playing horrible for most of it.

 

[Golden_Jet]

This is the part where you delete your message as to avoid creating embarrasment for you and your family until the end of times.

So all you’ve won so far in this thread, is being the most condescending poster, which usually means you have nothing to provide.

 

[karltonian]

OP's analysis is pretty spot on.

 

[PamBallam]

Yep, last year MVP was the person with the most goals not the most points, and the most points had over 100 assists, and still lost.
So the dude that is only about points, wonder how poster explains that, and it was only a year ago.

Saying the league is strictly about points is ludicrous.

Auston Matthews scored 69 goals last year, 18 more than Nate Mackinnon. The most since Ovi's 65, and the first to score 69 since some guy named Mario Lemieux. How come he didn't win the Hart? Could it maybe be because there's more to being a good player than JUST scoring goals?

 

[bambamcam4ever]

I don't think anybody should claim that Crosby's defense (in isolation) is anything special. In other words, his pure shutdown ability (which is how players like Bob Gainey and Guy Carbonneau contributed) is roughly average.

But, what ultimately matters is how much a player improves his team's goal differential. Here's a post where I do a deep dive into Crosby's two-way play. I looked at 15 of the highest scoring forwards from the 2010's, and evaluated how their teams performed (at even strength) when they're on vs off the ice. A young Connor McDavid ranked first, but Crosby was second (he was immediately ahead of three centers who are widely accepted as excellent two-way players - Bergeron, Toews and Kopitar).

Overall, Pittsburgh performed vastly better when Crosby was on the ice (their ratio of goals for to goals against was about 38% higher). Having looked at this for previous decades, this is near the limit of what a single forward can do. It was the result of elite offense and adequate defense. So, the critics who claim that Crosby wasn't anything special defensively are right. But that's also irrelevant - a star player should make their team better when they're on the ice, and few players in NHL history have done that as effectively as Crosby.

(An important note - the data in that post is now five years out of date. At some point, I'll update it for the 2020's).

The other important point to mention is that Malkin has been the second line center for already Crosby's whole career. So just comparing the on/off isn't going to look as impressive as say Toews on the Blackhawks having Handzus as the 2C

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Take a look at how McDavid performed in 2024 playoffs and Crosby in 2016 and tell me with a straight face how Crosby contributed more to winning. Crosby with that kinda of preformance crashes out of the playoffs unless he’s on an extremely deep team such as those Penguins. That’s why I don’t like the “cups are everything” argument. Some guys have to play at a much higher level to win than others.



So in other words, a luxury most all time greats don’t have. The history rewriting has gone too way too far. Crosby routinely takes credit while not contributing how superstars should. For example in 2010 where he was given credit for winning the tournament while playing horrible for most of it.

Crosby was horrible in the 2010 Olympics? They only played 7 games, why don't you watch them all and then come back here and reevaluate?

 

[pi314]

I don't think anybody should claim that Crosby's defense (in isolation) is anything special. In other words, his pure shutdown ability (which is how players like Bob Gainey and Guy Carbonneau contributed) is roughly average.

But, what ultimately matters is how much a player improves his team's goal differential. Here's a post where I do a deep dive into Crosby's two-way play. I looked at 15 of the highest scoring forwards from the 2010's, and evaluated how their teams performed (at even strength) when they're on vs off the ice. A young Connor McDavid ranked first, but Crosby was second (he was immediately ahead of three centers who are widely accepted as excellent two-way players - Bergeron, Toews and Kopitar).

Overall, Pittsburgh performed vastly better when Crosby was on the ice (their ratio of goals for to goals against was about 38% higher). Having looked at this for previous decades, this is near the limit of what a single forward can do. It was the result of elite offense and adequate defense. So, the critics who claim that Crosby wasn't anything special defensively are right. But that's also irrelevant - a star player should make their team better when they're on the ice, and few players in NHL history have done that as effectively as Crosby.

(An important note - the data in that post is now five years out of date. At some point, I'll update it for the 2020's).

Would like to see this post but the link didn’t work.

 

[Randyne]

Yeah it's not like Crosby won the Conn Smythe for 2/3 of their Cup runs lol...

The weakest Smythes all-time, it's making his legacy worse, not better.
Even McDavid won Smythe on a losing team with 31% more points.
Logan Couture had 52% more points over Sid and NHL gave Smythe to whinny kid.

Now to the thread question:
Hockey is a team sport, so a player must make his team better.

Sid's 30s
PIT P% with Sid .585
PIT P% w/o Sid .628
Sid is absolutely awful, w/o him PIT is one of the best team in the league.

Now Ovi's 30s:
WSH P% with Ovi .649
WSH P% w/o Ovi .490
Ovechkin makes his team the best in the league (higher than BOS.644 and TBL.644 in that span), w/o him it's a bottom team.

Ovi>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Sid
And it's not an exaggeration. Having positive impact infinitely times better than negative impact.
Don't watch Sid's +/-. He makes his pluses artificially hiding his minuses behind his teammate Malkin. Maybe it's the reason why PIT plays better w/o Sid.

Sid has only fake media hype because of being Canadian.

 

[HFpapi]

Ovi leading the league in goal scoring 4 times in his 30's alone is ****ing insane. 4 times in a career is insane but 4x after age of 30? Bananas.

Crosby continuing to be a 90+ point machine in his mid-late 30's while being an all-around force and still a top 10 player in the league is ****ing insane.

My vote is to finally stop comparing them and pitting them against each other and tearing one down to build the other up and for once to just appreciate what they are both doing 20 years after they debuted together.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Secondary assist aren’t nearly as valuable. Every other sport factors in primary points except hockey. Why should we stop at two assists per goal? Why not add a third one?. Ovi still leads Sid by primary points by quite a bit, and Sid’s lower value secondary assists cancel out that advantage. That’s why it’s so close.

and what is the primary points per game? Are you also factoring in Crosby is two years younger than Ovechkin as well? He will almost certainly play one year past Ovechkin retiring if not more.

Would not be surprised if Ovechkin isn’t even on the same PPG level of Crosby. Looking back until 2010 season, Crosby led in primary points more often than not. Ovechkin is ahead because of Crosbys injuries.

 

[TheLegend27]

The weakest Smythes all-time, it's making his legacy worse, not better.
Even McDavid won Smythe on a losing team with 31% more points.
Logan Couture had 52% more points over Sid and NHL gave Smythe to whinny kid.

Now to the thread question:
Hockey is a team sport, so a player must make his team better.

Sid's 30s
PIT P% with Sid .585
PIT P% w/o Sid .628
Sid is absolutely awful, w/o him PIT is one of the best team in the league.

Now Ovi's 30s:
WSH P% with Ovi .649
WSH P% w/o Ovi .490
Ovechkin makes his team the best in the league (higher than BOS.644 and TBL.644 in that span), w/o him it's a bottom team.

Ovi>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Sid
And it's not an exaggeration. Having positive impact infinitely times better than negative impact.
Don't watch Sid's +/-. He makes his pluses artificially hiding his minuses behind his teammate Malkin. Maybe it's the reason why PIT plays better w/o Sid.

Sid has only fake media hype because of being Canadian.

Pens fans don’t understand that playing games is better and more Beneficial than not playing them. When Ovi records a zero point game, he still makes an impact by hitting, winning the puck, creating chances etc. For years the narrative was Crosby makes the pens better through leadership, but now that the Caps are doing better there is no mention of Ovi leadership.

Not to mention this year Sid is selfishly playing to pad his stats when the Penguins should be losing and tanking for a better draft spot.

 

[TheSmokingMan]

I don't think anybody should claim that Crosby's defense (in isolation) is anything special. In other words, his pure shutdown ability (which is how players like Bob Gainey and Guy Carbonneau contributed) is roughly average.

But, what ultimately matters is how much a player improves his team's goal differential. Here's a post where I do a deep dive into Crosby's two-way play. I looked at 15 of the highest scoring forwards from the 2010's, and evaluated how their teams performed (at even strength) when they're on vs off the ice. A young Connor McDavid ranked first, but Crosby was second (he was immediately ahead of three centers who are widely accepted as excellent two-way players - Bergeron, Toews and Kopitar).

Overall, Pittsburgh performed vastly better when Crosby was on the ice (their ratio of goals for to goals against was about 38% higher). Having looked at this for previous decades, this is near the limit of what a single forward can do. It was the result of elite offense and adequate defense. So, the critics who claim that Crosby wasn't anything special defensively are right. But that's also irrelevant - a star player should make their team better when they're on the ice, and few players in NHL history have done that as effectively as Crosby.

(An important note - the data in that post is now five years out of date. At some point, I'll update it for the 2020's).

Kudos, that was a lot of work to put together. I like that kind of statistical analysis. Hockey is one of the most difficult sports to gauge the effectiveness of players on different teams and different positions. I appreciate that you tried to look at the teammates to see how they performed in comparison.

It's very difficult to directly compare hockey players. There are too many variables to account for. I think the biggest challenge is incorporating the quality of the team around the player into the analysis. You mentioned this in your comments when talking about players like McDavid. Should you update your tables, I hope you try to incorporate this, because I haven't really seen a model that effectively accomplishes this.

My other concern, and my biggest issue with these Crosby vs Ovi threads, is that we try to compare two players as if they were apples to apples. First, they play different positions with vastly different responsibilities and skillsets. A wing and a center may both be forwards, but they don't play the same way.

There are many archetypes for a forward and I'm not sure how useful comparing different archetypes will be. To name a few forward archetypes, there is scoring, 2-way, or defensive / offensive specialist. Even within scoring forwards, you have goalscorers and playmakers, and you could break it down even further if you wanted to.

We get so caught up with our tribalism to a particular team or player that you actually have people here arguing that scoring a goal or creating a scoring opportunity with a pass isn't very important. One isn't less important than the other; you need both!

 

[Randyne]

Not to mention this year Sid is selfishly playing to pad his stats when the Penguins should be losing and tanking for a better draft spot.

Yep.
Sidfans predicted this for Ovi, but it turned out exactly the opposite.

 

[CapsJunkie]

i'm blessed to have witnessed them play all these years