Better Goal Scorer 66 or 8

[Golden_Jet]

I've provided loads of evidence to support my claims. You've backed up your claims with laughing emojis and baseless claims. Pretending these are somehow the same thing is more of the same is just more of the same from you.

lol you literally ignore everything anyone else posts, and then act like you’re the victim, it’s priceless, and is now just funny.

I've shown lots of evidence that seems to suggest a causal relationship between the number of high talent players and the scoring rates. I can't find any evidence to even remotely suggest goalie pad changes did what is being claimed.

yep shocking, of course you can’t.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

No you cannot "easily identify" that. Young talent like Tavares, Duchene, Hall, Seguin came into the league prior to the scoring explosion but didn't score as much because scoring wasn't as high. You can't just say "they weren't good" without more robust evidence. You say "I can't find any evidence to support it" for goalies, but the only evidence you really have for scorers is the scoring rates. It's a clear double standard.

Earlier you said goalies in the 2010s had higher save percentages because they faced less good shooters than the 80s. This means you genuinely believe Denis Maruk would hold a 21.6 % shooting percentage across his best two full seasons consecutively, something nobody was remotely close to doing in 2014-15 and 2015-16. With at least 100 games played the best shooting percentages were 17.6 %, 17.1 %, 17.0 %, 16.7 % and 16.4 %. Meanwhile Maruk's 21.6 % between 1980-81 and 1981-82 didn't even make the top 10 in shooting % across a minimum 100 game sample. But you genuinely believe the League had 53 skaters with a higher 100 game shooting % sample than ANYONE because they were just better shooters while the goaltending remained constant.

That's insane.

I can absolutely say "they weren't good enough to put up big numbers" because the evidence clearly shows that they did not put up big numbers. If they were actually good enough to put up big numbers, they should have done so. Crosby didn't have any issues putting up 100+ point seasons when he was healthy during that era. Neither did Malkin. Patrick Kane was PPG+ overall. But Tavares/Duchene/Hall/Seguin all struggled to even be PPG+ two seasons in a row. 2014-15 Ross winner Jamie Benn had 2 career seasons over 1.0 PPG. Why did he struggle to score PPG+ when Kane/Crosby/Malkin didn't? Were goalies wearing different pads against Dallas then Pittsburgh?

I also said that maybe goalies had higher SV% because they faced fewer elite level shooters. To me, it's perfectly rational to think that Auston Matthews scores a lot more goals than Jeff Carter because he's a better shooter. I don't think it's rational to think Matthews only scores more than Carter did because the goalie pads are smaller.

 

[Golden_Jet]

To be fair, I also provided loads of evidence to back up my claim so it doesn't have to rely purely on correlation like the claims about goalie pad changes. My claim also seems to hold up to scrutiny pretty well, and doesn't fail to explain basic things, like a 10 year decline in scoring after they changed the goalie pad rules.

2005 pads were narrowed.
In 2005 there was a crackdown on penalties, scoring went up more,
Then as less penalties called, and players adjusted, scoring went down again.
Then the major goalie changes occur for 18/19 season, where literally everything is shrunk, and scoring increases again.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

It's not as much a proving each other wrong as there are better and worse statistical analyses. One can adjust across the whole league, which I think is what Hockey Reference does, one can adjust relative to average first-liner, average second-pairing defenseman. The latter two criteria might yield a bit more of an apples to apples comparison. The above three methods are more quantitatively tractable, whereas your appeal to talent fluctuations is more qualitative in nature and harder to measure.

If we can't get an actual apples to apples comparison because of all the hard to measure variables that play into it, my question is still "are we really sure these adjustments are even necessary?" Why should we treat them as being factual when it's clearly a flawed model? Isn't it just as plausible that the league scored less because there were only a handful of elite players in the league, and the next tier of guys weren't good enough to score more than they did? Having watched both eras extensively, I can unequivocally say I'd much rather be tasked with stopping the 2014-15 Stars from scoring than the 2024-25 Stars, because the new team has so many more weapons to worry about. Stopping a team with 2 very good scorers is easier than stopping a team with 4 or 5, right? True, I can't precisely measure that the 4th highest scoring forward on the Stars today (Roope Hintz) is much more skilled than the 4th highest scoring forward on the team from 2014-15 (Cody Eakin), but the evidence that he is seems pretty overwhelming to me. If I'm supposed to believe he's not, I need a lot more than unsubstantiated claims about goalie pads having an effect.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

2005 pads were narrowed.
In 2005 there was a crackdown on penalties, scoring went up more,
Then as less penalties called, and players adjusted, scoring went down again.
Then the major goalie changes occur for 18/19 season, where literally everything is shrunk, and scoring increases again.

Why were fewer penalties called? Was it the league actively trying to decrease scoring, or could it be a natural effect of there being fewer guys in the league able to regularly outclass defenders, allowing defenders to prevent them from scoring more often without having to resort to taking a penalty?

And if scoring went down every single year for 10 years after that initial increase due to teams averaging 100+ more power plays per season, doesn't that suggest that goalie pad changes didn't have the impact you're suggesting? If it were actually the reason for the scoring rate going up, we'd be able to expect scoring to go up every single time they make a change, but that clearly hasn't been the situation.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I also said that maybe goalies had higher SV% because they faced fewer elite level shooters.

Which means you genuinely believe the early 80s featured about 2.5 shooters per team that were more accurate than any single player in the mid-2010s.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Which means you genuinely believe the early 80s featured about 2.5 shooters per team that were more accurate than any single player in the mid-2010s.

Wayne Gretzky single handedly contributed to at least 2.5 times more goals than almost all of the top guys in the mid-2010s. 200+ points vs 80. And that's before we talk about Mario, or Hull or Sakic or Yzerman or Hull or any of the other great players who were drastically outscoring the guys who came after them.

Do you honestly believe that Getzlaf is the same caliber as player as Jagr? Or Benn is just as good as Forsberg? Is Jeff Carter the same caliber of goal scorer as Brett Hull? How many guys from that era are as good as Bure? Or Federov? Or Bourque? Or Coffey? From what I've seen as an old person, there was Crosby/Malkin/OV and that's about it until 2015ish.

 

[WarriorofTime]

And that's before we talk about Mario, or Hull or Sakic or Yzerman or Hull

Literally none of those players you named were in the NHL in 1980-81 or 1981-82. Players 5th-10th in goal scoring over that two year sample were Rick Middleton, Blaine Stoughton, Bill Barber, Rick Kehoe, Rick Valve and Dave Taylor.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Why were fewer penalties called?

I explained that literally a few words later.

And if scoring went down every single year for 10 years after that initial increase due to teams averaging 100+ more power plays per season, doesn't that suggest that goalie pad changes didn't have the impact you're suggesting?

No, as has been mentioned numerous times, minor goalie mods in 2005, major goalie mods to every piece of equipment in 18/19.
But like you usual you ignore it, despite the evidence and the lists of changes posted for 2005 vs 18/19.
But seems you prefer to bury your head in the sand, and ignore the facts presented.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Literally none of those players you named were in the NHL in 1980-81 or 1981-82. Players 5th-10th in goal scoring over that two year sample were Rick Middleton, Blaine Stoughton, Bill Barber, Rick Kehoe, Rick Valve and Dave Taylor.

From 2010-11 to 2011-12, Corey Perry was the 2nd highest goal scorer in the NHL with 87 goals in 162 games. 5 through 10 was OV, Kessel, Kovalchuk, Marleau, Sharp and Matt Moulson.

Is Corey Perry as good a goal scorer as Mike Bossy, who was 2nd in the 1980-82 time frame? Who was as good as Marcel Dionne, the 4th highest goal scorer and Dave Taylor's teammate? Do you think playing with Dionne probably helped Taylor score more, in addition to what Dionne scored himself?

Middleton played those two years with a very young future best defenseman since Orr (to that point) named Ray Bourque, which probably didn't make it harder for him to score those years.

Stoughton was the third highest scorer on the Whalers in 80-81, behind Rogers and Boutette, and was playing with a rookie future Hall of Famer named Ron Francis in 81-82. Do you think he didn't benefit from having good young teammates?

Barber was a 50 goal scorer in 1975-76 who still put up 43 and 45 in his mid-late 20s while playing with decent young players like Propp and Linseman.

Kehoe had a career best 55 goals in 1980-81 playing with 24 year old Norris winner Randy Carlyle, but never scored more than 33 in any other season.

And Vaive was a 21 year old kid playing in Toronto along with 29 year old Borje Salming and a bunch of other decent youth. Him being top 10 seems to be a good example of talented youngsters helping to increase scoring.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I explained that literally a few words later.

Your post does not contain a single word that even tries to explain why, only that fewer were called.

No, as has been mentioned numerous times, minor goalie mods in 2005, major goalie mods to every piece of equipment in 18/19.
But like you usual you ignore it, despite the evidence and the lists of changes posted for 2005 vs 18/19.
But seems you prefer to bury your head in the sand, and ignore the facts presented.

Again, pointing to what happened isn't evidence that it had the results you claim. You need to actually connect the dots between what happened and the results that you think those changes had, which you have thus far not even come close to doing in any sort of convincing way.

 

[filinski77]

This is hilarious.

Funny how goalie equipment changed in 2017-2018 and elite players immediately started scoring almost 20% more points. When you look at the age of the top-5/10/20/30 players there is really no indications that players got younger.

You'd assume that is the exact same players finished in the top-5/10/20/30, that the average age would go up by exactly 1.0. What we see instead is that:
-> The top-5 did get younger, but this is obviously a small sample size from replacing one single player (old Backstrom vs. young Mackinnon)
-> The top-10 actually got older (and by more than the 1 year)
-> The top-20 was essentially flat (0.8 years older instead of 1.0 years older)
-> The top-30 did get younger

So a mixed bag when looking at 10/20/30 that clearly illustrates no huge "young guy boost" that lead to scoring increasing.

It's also still rich that the most elite players of the pre-2017/2018 era all suddenly started putting up higher numbers once the goalie pad sizes decreased, the league diluted with 2 new expansions, referee's started being more strict with what they were calling, defencemen got smaller etc.

All of this DESPITE these guys getting older and into their post-prime ages. By Sakic logic, 32-39 year old Ovechkin is just simply better than 27-31 year old Ovechkin. 31-33 year old Crosby is simply better than 27 to 31 year old Crosby. If anyone watched these guys play we all know that is NOT the case.

 

[filinski77]

From 2010-11 to 2011-12, Corey Perry was the 2nd highest goal scorer in the NHL with 87 goals in 162 games. 5 through 10 was OV, Kessel, Kovalchuk, Marleau, Sharp and Matt Moulson.

Is Corey Perry as good a goal scorer as Mike Bossy, who was 2nd in the 1980-82 time frame? Who was as good as Marcel Dionne, the 4th highest goal scorer and Dave Taylor's teammate? Do you think playing with Dionne probably helped Taylor score more, in addition to what Dionne scored himself?

Middleton played those two years with a very young future best defenseman since Orr (to that point) named Ray Bourque, which probably didn't make it harder for him to score those years.

Stoughton was the third highest scorer on the Whalers in 80-81, behind Rogers and Boutette, and was playing with a rookie future Hall of Famer named Ron Francis in 81-82. Do you think he didn't benefit from having good young teammates?

Barber was a 50 goal scorer in 1975-76 who still put up 43 and 45 in his mid-late 20s while playing with decent young players like Propp and Linseman.

Kehoe had a career best 55 goals in 1980-81 playing with 24 year old Norris winner Randy Carlyle, but never scored more than 33 in any other season.

And Vaive was a 21 year old kid playing in Toronto along with 29 year old Borje Salming and a bunch of other decent youth. Him being top 10 seems to be a good example of talented youngsters helping to increase scoring.

Look at Crosby scoring 84, 85, 89 points (3rd, 3rd, 2nd) place finishes. Do we really think that the following players from the last few years were better than 27-29 year old Crosby: Panarin, Pastrnak, Matthews, Rantanen, JT Miller, Kaprizov, Point, Marner

Do we really think that 9th place JT miller in 2024 (103 points) was equivalent to Crosby's 2014 dominant Art Ross win (104 points)?

 

[Golden_Jet]

Your post does not contain a single word that even tries to explain why, only that fewer were called.

Reading comprehension, right there lol.
Hmm I wonder what players adjusting their game to the new rules mean then.

Again, pointing to what happened isn't evidence that it had the results you claim. You need to actually connect the dots between what happened and the results that you think those changes had, which you have thus far not even come close to doing in any sort of convincing way.

Lmao, says the person who hasn’t connected any dots, other than using because.

All you’ve done in the thread, is say no one provides evidence, and then turn around and do the exact same thing.

You haven’t convinced anyone yet, but keep it going bud,

You’ve been doing exactly what you’re accusing others of, hypocrisy at its finest.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Look at Crosby scoring 84, 85, 89 points (3rd, 3rd, 2nd) place finishes. Do we really think that the following players from the last few years were better than 27-29 year old Crosby: Panarin, Pastrnak, Matthews, Rantanen, JT Miller, Kaprizov, Point, Marner

Do we really think that 9th place JT miller in 2024 (103 points) was equivalent to Crosby's 2014 dominant Art Ross win (104 points)?

I think Crosby was playing with third liners like Kunitz and Rust and Dupuis during those three season, as a direct result of the limited number of guys with top end talent in the league, which made it really hard for him to score more. Passing to Guentzel and having him put it in the net leads to more points than passing to Dupuis and having him fumble the pass, right?

I also think that Panarin, Pastrnak, Matthews, Rantanen, JT Miller, Kaprizov, Point and Marner have all played almost their entire careers with linemates better than Kunitz and Rust and Dupuis, which helps them all score more points, which increases the averages for the league.

And 9th place from 2024 JT Miller is easily a better scorer than 9th place from 2014 Jamie Benn ever was, and arguably as good offensively, if not better, than 2nd place Getzlaf was. So are the 8 guys who outscored Miller last year. Looking at the 2024 list, I'm down into the 20s before I stop being comfortable saying they're better offensively than 2nd place in 2014 Getzlaf. I wonder what adding 19 guys between 1st and 2nd place in scoring does to the overall scoring rates in the league.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Reading comprehension, right there lol.
Hmm I wonder what players adjusting their game to the new rules mean then.


Lmao, says the person who hasn’t connected any dots, other than using because.

All you’ve done in the thread, is say no one provides evidence, and then turn around and do the exact same thing.

You haven’t convinced anyone yet, but keep it going bud,

You’ve been doing exactly what you’re accusing others of, hypocrisy at its finest.

I'm also forced to wonder what it means, because you didn't explain what adjustments they made, how they were able to make them in real time so scoring kept going down year after year, or how it proves that goalie pad changes had an effect. You just claimed "they adjusted" and want to pretend that's why goalie pad size changes didn't increase scoring in any measurable way for 10+ years after they made them smaller.


And I've connected as many dots as I can. I've listed the young high talent players entering the league or reaching their primes that seems to have led to every rise in league scoring going back to 1970, other than the 2005 increase that was obviously due to the increase in penalties being called. I've shown that the top 26 players from 1995 outscored the top 26 players from 2006 by 600 total points, which would clearly have a massive impact on league scoring rates.

What have you actually shown to support it's goalie pad changes, other than circling the dot labeled "goalie pad changes"? Where's the connection between the goalie pad changes and the increase in scoring? Is it hiding in your nebulous claim of "they adjusted"? Or is it too difficult for you to admit that you don't have anything that connects the goalie pad changes to changes in scoring rate, so you have to keep pretending I'm being hypocritical for expecting you to show your work too?

 

[HespelerGreenFlash]

Alex Ovechkin is about to become the Hank Aaron of hockey, breaking one of the most celebrated records in the sport....a record that was held by the likes of Howe and Gretzky, hockey royalty, and one that was considered untouchable since Gretzky broke it.

Ovi will likely do it in roughly the same amount of games as Gretzky too, give or take. One hell of an accomplishment and a testament to his longevity, durability, and consistency.

However, Mario Lemieux is the all time leader in goals per game in regular season + playoffs with 766 goals in 1,022 games for a .750 clip, just above Mike Bossy. He missed a couple hundred+ games in his prime, or that .750 would have likely been even higher, and he may have held the goals record now (I know, "what if.") I've always considered him the best goal scorer of all time.

His eye test/highlight reel is off the charts. He is widely regarded as the best one on one / breakaway player of all time, and I think many would agree he could score goals in many more ways than Ovechkin. His 87 Canada cup 11 goal performance with the best players in the world, his 5 goals in 5 ways performance, his 70 and 80+ goal seasons, 13 shorties in one season, etc, provide singular data points showing peak greatness that is very high.

There is also the debate of what does "best" mean? To me, that means who is the best player you ever saw as far as peak ability. Who do you have take the shot to save your life? To others, "best" means long term consistency and career totals. Vote for whichever you value most.

So, who is the "better" goal scorer.....66 or 8? Does this new record change your view of Ovi, do you now consider him the greatest, have you considered him the greatest for a while, or is he still not quite the best goal scorer ever?

Some may say neither is the "best" ever, but that's a poll for another day. .

Couldnt agree more. 66 was the most unstoppable player of all time. In equal number games Ill take Mario to outscore anyone

 

[PainForShane]

I think Crosby was playing with third liners like Kunitz and Rust and Dupuis during those three season, as a direct result of the limited number of guys with top end talent in the league, which made it really hard for him to score more. Passing to Guentzel and having him put it in the net leads to more points than passing to Dupuis and having him fumble the pass, right?

I also think that Panarin, Pastrnak, Matthews, Rantanen, JT Miller, Kaprizov, Point and Marner have all played almost their entire careers with linemates better than Kunitz and Rust and Dupuis, which helps them all score more points, which increases the averages for the league.

And 9th place from 2024 JT Miller is easily a better scorer than 9th place from 2014 Jamie Benn ever was, and arguably as good offensively, if not better, than 2nd place Getzlaf was. So are the 8 guys who outscored Miller last year. Looking at the 2024 list, I'm down into the 20s before I stop being comfortable saying they're better offensively than 2nd place in 2014 Getzlaf. I wonder what adding 19 guys between 1st and 2nd place in scoring does to the overall scoring rates in the league.

Meanwhile, "3rd line Chris Kunitz" was literally on Team Canada that year and won a gold medal in Sochi.

Also, never thought I'd ever see someone proudly and repeatedly declare his belief that the reduction in goalie gear size didn't actually result in an increase in scoring. Love reading your posts man

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Meanwhile, "3rd line Chris Kunitz" was literally on Team Canada that year and won a gold medal in Sochi.

Also, never thought I'd ever see someone proudly and repeatedly declare his belief that the reduction in goalie gear size didn't actually result in an increase in scoring. Love reading your posts man

The fact that Team Canada didn't have a better choice than a guy who averaged 50 points per season over his NHL career doesn't seem to dispute my claim that there weren't many better guys available.

And, if scoring dropped for 10 straight seasons after they reduced goalie pad sizes in 2005-06 and several times after that, why would anyone continue to believe that reducing goalie gear size increases scoring without asking some serious questions? If it's definitely goalie pads, why can't anyone answer any of my questions without just repeating the same baseless claims?

 

[PainForShane]

The fact that Team Canada didn't have a better choice than a guy who averaged 50 points per season over his NHL career doesn't seem to dispute my claim that there weren't many better guys available.

And, if scoring dropped for 10 straight seasons after they reduced goalie pad sizes in 2005-06 and several times after that, why would anyone continue to believe that reducing goalie gear size increases scoring without asking some serious questions? If it's definitely goalie pads, why can't anyone answer any of my questions without just repeating the same baseless claims?

Yep. We all know team Canada doesn't have any depth, especially at forward. If you remember, that was the year Marty St. Louis didn't initially make the team, he'd won the Art Ross the season prior (also an NHL 2nd team all-star).

I personally believe that reducing goalie gear size increases scoring because, well... with smaller gear then by definition there's more open net to shoot at. And also, scoring went up immediately after the changes were made, which has already been mentioned multiple times in this thread.

Like I said, love reading your posts

 

[authentic]

Yeah that’s because the nhl did nothing about hooking and holding in lemieux’s early prime years where he had 200 pound grown men dragging off him going up the ice. His back declined so much he couldn’t even tie his own skates in the back half of his career.

Yet still managed 35 in 43, at age 35, after 3.5 years of complete retirement.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Yep. We all know team Canada doesn't have any depth, especially at forward.

I personally believe that reducing goalie gear size increases scoring because, well... with smaller gear then by definition there's more open net to shoot at. And also, scoring went up immediately after the changes were made, which has already been mentioned multiple times in this thread.

Like I said, love reading your posts

Sure, logically, having smaller goalie pads does sound like there's more net to shoot at. But I'm pretty sure goalies are allowed to move and are still going to make most of the same saves, even with slightly smaller pads. These are the best goalies in the world and people act like incrementally smaller pads makes it impossible for them to stop the puck at a high level anymore.

I've also read quotes where goalies say they prefer the smaller pads, because they aren't as stiff or cumbersome, making them easier to move in, so it seems like even the goalies themselves don't think the pads increase scoring.

EDIT - since you added something about St Louis after I quoted, I'd point out that MSL was 37 years old in 2013 when he won his 2nd Ross, which isn't doing much to convince me there were a lot of high talent youngsters floating around in 2014-15 that was even on his level.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yet still managed 35 in 43, at age 35, after 3.5 years of complete retirement.

Lemieux scored 35 at age 35 which is impressive. Ovechkin scored 50 at age 36 which is more impressive.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Lemieux scored 35 at age 35 which is impressive. Ovechkin scored 50 at age 36 which is more impressive.

If you're more impressed by OV scoring 50 goals in 77 games at 36 than you are by 35 year old Lemieux coming back from 3 years of retirement due to severe back issues and cancer and still scoring over 0.81 goals per game over the 43 games he managed to played, I'm not sure what to say anymore. Lemieux's elite level performance in that come back, after 3 years and however much pain, is probably the single most impressive things I've ever seen in professional sports.

 

[WarriorofTime]

If you're more impressed by OV scoring 50 goals in 77 games at 36 than you are by 35 year old Lemieux coming back from 3 years of retirement due to severe back issues and cancer and still scoring over 0.81 goals per game over the 43 games he managed to played, I'm not sure what to say anymore. Lemieux's elite level performance in that come back, after 3 years and however much pain, is probably the single most impressive things I've ever seen in professional sports.

If 35 impresses you more than 50, I guess we count numbers differently. Being able to withstand the grind of complete seasons rather than eating nachos in the press box is a big plus in Ovechkin’s favor. If playing in barely half the games and scoring 35 goals is the most impressive thing you’ve ever seen, you haven’t seen many impressive things.