Better Goal Scorer 66 or 8

[psycat]

Bobby Hull was better than Brett Hull at scoring.

Not according to his chart, which is what I am commenting on. Didn't see much, at all, from Bobby myself so no strong opinion there.

 

[SkinsFan09]

Goalie equipment was shrunk by 11% in 2005. If it's goalie equipment changes, why did scoring continue to decrease and the average SV% increase until more high end scorers showed up 10 years later?

Goalie equipment was also changed in 2018 which coincides with this huge jump in scoring.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

For adjusted stats, you're looking at comparing "the number of standard deviations above average" instead of raw goals. But season-adjusted raw goals are a somewhat useful shorthand that's better than nothing. Either way, that's the metric that shows you how good you're doing relative to your peers.

Yes, the number of standard deviations above the average is a great measurement of how well you do relative to your peers in that group. What it isn't very useful for is showing how well you do relative to guys from totally different peer groups.

If you're 2 deviations above the average in the AHL and I'm 1 deviation above the average in the NHL, does that mean you're the better player? Or do we need to do some sort of adjusting to account for the difference in skill level between these two peer groups? Assuming you agree that we need to adjust in this example, then shouldn't we also at least check whether we need to adjust for differences in peer groups when comparing almost completely different groups of NHL peers? It seems to me like all the "season adjusted" formulas totally skip this step and blindly assume that all NHL peer groups are perfectly equal in terms of skill level, when that simply isn't true.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I can't help but wonder if maybe PPs went down because the league average defenseman wasn't getting beaten as frequently. Between 2006 and 2016, who other than Crosby/OV/Malkin was really capable of making defensemen regularly look bad? Was there even a truly elite level skater in the league during that decade? Or just a bunch of guys who were above average at best?

You can only be shown to be incorrect statistically so many times and keep reverting back to "my theory is everyone just started to suck/get good simultaneously" before "I can't help but wonder" if this is all in bad faith.

And I'm sure it's just a coincidence that 2016-17 was the rookie season for Matthews, Marner, Rantanen, Aho, Nylander, Tkachuk, Point, Guentzel, Morrissey, Chychrun, not to mention McDavid's first 100 point season, Kucherov's first PPG+ season, and Pasta and Drai's first 70+ point seasons. It can't possibly be that all these high talent youngsters boosted scoring or anything that obvious, it's gotta be the minor changes to goalie equipment and all those extra EN points guys were getting, right?

Why wouldn't this work both ways? Why would you not say "well clearly the goaltenders were all worse than the previous ones"? It's illogical. Scoring is the effect of both offense and defense. A team/game can feature more scoring because the offense is better or the defense is worse. The league as a whole can get better or worse with zero effect on league scoring (with no rule/system changes) if it's equally getting better or worse at both scoring goals and preventing goals.

 

[wickedwitch]

Mario clears Ovechkin as a better overall hockey player by several notches. Who cares who was better goal scorer?

Apparently a lot of people, because this thread is 20 pages.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Goalie equipment was also changed in 2018 which coincides with this huge jump in scoring.

Correlation doesn't prove causation. There was also a huge influx of high end young talent coming into the league starting around 2016. What do you think suggests it was definitely goalie pads and not the dozens of new elite scorers who are very clearly upgrades over the guys they replaced on the depth charts.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Not according to his chart, which is what I am commenting on. Didn't see much, at all, from Bobby myself so no strong opinion there.

Bobby has 7 rockets, for second place.

Elite Prospects - Award - NHL Most Goals (Maurice Richard Trophy)

All players that have been awarded NHL Most Goals (Maurice Richard Trophy)

www.eliteprospects.com

 

[Golden_Jet]

I can't help but wonder if maybe PPs went down because the league average defenseman wasn't getting beaten as frequently. Between 2006 and 2016, who other than Crosby/OV/Malkin was really capable of making defensemen regularly look bad? Was there even a truly elite level skater in the league during that decade? Or just a bunch of guys who were above average at best?

And I'm sure it's just a coincidence that 2016-17 was the rookie season for Matthews, Marner, Rantanen, Aho, Nylander, Tkachuk, Point, Guentzel, Morrissey, Chychrun, not to mention McDavid's first 100 point season, Kucherov's first PPG+ season, and Pasta and Drai's first 70+ point seasons. It can't possibly be that all these high talent youngsters boosted scoring or anything that obvious, it's gotta be the minor changes to goalie equipment and all those extra EN points guys were getting, right?

It's also not that the current generation of elite scorers is better than the last generation, there's just more of them. The previous era only had 3 or 4, this one has 10-15 at about that same level. That's why we only see Crosby/OV still competing with the best of the best from this generation and not the lesser guys who littered the top 10 in scoring year after year. If it were actually easier to score, shouldn't guys like Duchene and Tavares score more than they did back then?

I also can't think anything more conducive to scoring than having more talented teammates to play with. Get 2 or 3 high talent offensive players on the same team and you're going to score a lot more goals than if you have Crosby playing with 3rd liners.

NHL Goalie Equipment Changes · 18/19
- Leg pads could be no wider than 11 inches. · - Blockers were reduced from 16 inches to 15 inches. ·
- Catching gloves shrunk
- jersey shrunk, can longer be loose
- chest protectors shrunk
- Elbow floaters have been reduced from 7 inches to 6 across the front.
- Bicep and forearm pads must taper — 5.5 inches to 4.5, then 4.5 to 4.
- chest protector must be anatomically shaped to players body size
- Clavicle floaters cannot extend more than 2 inches above the shoulder at the lateral edge, 1.5 inches at midpoint and 0.5 inches at the medial edge.
- Shoulder caps cannot project laterally
beyond shoulders more than 1.5 inches.

But ya had nothing to do with increased scoring ,

 

[psycat]

Bobby has 7 rockets, for second place.

Elite Prospects - Award - NHL Most Goals (Maurice Richard Trophy)

All players that have been awarded NHL Most Goals (Maurice Richard Trophy)

www.eliteprospects.com

I am commenting on his chart nothing else. Also counting rockets is not that interesting to me when it comes to determining who was a better goalscorer because in that case it would be very well clear cut.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

You can only be shown to be incorrect statistically so many times and keep reverting back to "my theory is everyone just started to suck/get good simultaneously" before "I can't help but wonder" if this is all in bad faith.

Then it's probably a good thing for me that no one has actually shown anything that proves me wrong yet. That isn't to say that people haven't claimed I'm wrong for various unconvincing reasons that aren't supported by evidence and don't hold up to even the slightly scrutiny, but showing I'm wrong requires more than just repeating the same baseless claims over and over.

Why wouldn't this work both ways? Why would you not say "well clearly the goaltenders were all worse than the previous ones"? It's illogical. Scoring is the effect of both offense and defense. A team/game can feature more scoring because the offense is better or the defense is worse. The league as a whole can get better or worse with zero effect on league scoring (with no rule/system changes) if it's equally getting better or worse at both scoring goals and preventing goals.

I wouldn't say that goalies are less skilled because when I try to test that claim for accuracy, I can't find any evidence to support it. Likewise, I can't find any measurable evidence to support the claims that goalie pad changes had any impact on scoring, even though there is a correlation.

On the other hand, I can easily find a lot of evidence that better offensive players score more points than a less talented offensive players, and also easily identify that the number of highly skilled offensive players in the league fluctuates from year to year, in almost perfect sync with the scoring averages going back to 1970.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I am commenting on his chart nothing else. Also counting rockets is not that interesting to me when it comes to determining who was a better goalscorer because in that case it would be very well clear cut.

What’s this chart,
yes it is clear cut, Bobby was the better goal scorer,

Then it's probably a good thing for me that no one has actually shown anything that proves me wrong yet. That isn't to say that people haven't claimed I'm wrong for various unconvincing reasons that aren't supported by evidence and don't hold up to even the slightly scrutiny, but showing I'm wrong requires more than just repeating the same baseless claims over and over.

Pot meet kettle, you’re just seeing what you want to see, you’ve been shown data and just ignore it lol.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

NHL Goalie Equipment Changes · 18/19
- Leg pads could be no wider than 11 inches. · - Blockers were reduced from 16 inches to 15 inches. ·
- Catching gloves shrunk
- jersey shrunk, can longer be loose
- chest protectors shrunk
- Elbow floaters have been reduced from 7 inches to 6 across the front.
- Bicep and forearm pads must taper — 5.5 inches to 4.5, then 4.5 to 4.
- chest protector must be anatomically shaped to players body size
- Clavicle floaters cannot extend more than 2 inches above the shoulder at the lateral edge, 1.5 inches at midpoint and 0.5 inches at the medial edge.
- Shoulder caps cannot project laterally
beyond shoulders more than 1.5 inches.

But ya had nothing to do with increased scoring ,

So, just to be clear, you're claiming the goalie pad changes are why Kucherov increased his career high from 100 to 128 in 2018-19 at the age of 25, and it's not because he spent much of the year playing with both Stamkos and a 22 year old 41 goal, 92 point scorer named Brayden Point?

Do you also think goalie pad changes are the only reason why McDavid's point totals have increased since 2018-19? Are they the reason MacKinnon scores a lot more more with Makar on the ice than he ever could with Tyson Barrie? Or why Marchand scored more after Pasta showed up than he could before?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

What’s this chart,
yes it is clear cut, Bobby was the better goal scorer,


Pot meet kettle, you’re just seeing what you want to see, you’ve been shown data and just ignore it lol.

Where have I been shown data? Where's the data that shows that the goalie pad changes had any tangible impact on scoring rates, other than the fact there is a correlation between the rules changes and the increased scoring? Or the data that shows that just as many players in 2014-15 are just as skilled offensively as the guys who are consistently in the top 30 scorers today? I can't find anything like that in this thread, just the same tired claims from people who think laughing emojis constitute proving someone wrong.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Where have I been shown data? Where's the data that shows that the goalie pad changes had any tangible impact on scoring rates, other than the fact there is a correlation between the rules changes and the increased scoring? Or the data that shows that just as many players in 2014-15 are just as skilled offensively as the guys who are consistently in the top 30 scorers today? I can't find anything like that in this thread, just the same tired claims from people who think laughing emojis constitute proving someone wrong.

So like your claims then, because you think so lol.

 

[FDBluth]

Mario scored all of his goals while still being like a top 3 all-time playmaker (at worst).

Very different than Ovechkin who puts his entire game into shooting the puck.

HOWEVER Ovechkin's longevity as a goalscorer is unmatched.

 

[norrisnick]

Correlation doesn't prove causation. There was also a huge influx of high end young talent coming into the league starting around 2016. What do you think suggests it was definitely goalie pads and not the dozens of new elite scorers who are very clearly upgrades over the guys they replaced on the depth charts.

Correlation doesn't prove causation!

Proceeds to claim it was definitely the new young talent that caused it...

 

[StreetHawk]

Mario scored in a multitude of ways. Ovy best known for that one time slapshot on the PP but also can score other goals. Mario just used his size to get into position to score.

Mario finished with 690 goals, but considering the amount of games he missed due to his back and cancer he missed a good chunk of his prime years where he should have passed Wayne.

In all honestly, he was the player with the most raw nhl talent coupled with size.

Outside of like 3 seasons his Goals to Assist ratio was never more than like a 40/60 split before he had to step away.

He would have broken Wayne’s record. Even have a shot at 1,000 goals but it just wasn’t meant to be.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Then it's probably a good thing for me that no one has actually shown anything that proves me wrong yet. That isn't to say that people haven't claimed I'm wrong for various unconvincing reasons that aren't supported by evidence and don't hold up to even the slightly scrutiny, but showing I'm wrong requires more than just repeating the same baseless claims over and over.



I wouldn't say that goalies are less skilled because when I try to test that claim for accuracy, I can't find any evidence to support it. Likewise, I can't find any measurable evidence to support the claims that goalie pad changes had any impact on scoring, even though there is a correlation.

On the other hand, I can easily find a lot of evidence that better offensive players score more points than a less talented offensive players, and also easily identify that the number of highly skilled offensive players in the league fluctuates from year to year, in almost perfect sync with the scoring averages going back to 1970.

No you cannot "easily identify" that. Young talent like Tavares, Duchene, Hall, Seguin came into the league prior to the scoring explosion but didn't score as much because scoring wasn't as high. You can't just say "they weren't good" without more robust evidence. You say "I can't find any evidence to support it" for goalies, but the only evidence you really have for scorers is the scoring rates. It's a clear double standard.

Earlier you said goalies in the 2010s had higher save percentages because they faced less good shooters than the 80s. This means you genuinely believe Denis Maruk would hold a 21.6 % shooting percentage across his best two full seasons consecutively, something nobody was remotely close to doing in 2014-15 and 2015-16. With at least 100 games played the best shooting percentages were 17.6 %, 17.1 %, 17.0 %, 16.7 % and 16.4 %. Meanwhile Maruk's 21.6 % between 1980-81 and 1981-82 didn't even make the top 10 in shooting % across a minimum 100 game sample. But you genuinely believe the League had 53 skaters with a higher 100 game shooting % sample than ANYONE because they were just better shooters while the goaltending remained constant.

That's insane.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Correlation doesn't prove causation!

Proceeds to claim it was definitely the new young talent that caused it...

Ya it’s crazy to read that kind of logic,
Imagine thinking giving the players more net to shoot at, doesn’t result in more goals.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

So like your claims then, because you think so lol.

I've provided loads of evidence to support my claims. You've backed up your claims with laughing emojis and baseless claims. Pretending these are somehow the same thing is more of the same is just more of the same from you.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Correlation doesn't prove causation!

Proceeds to claim it was definitely the new young talent that caused it...

I've shown lots of evidence that seems to suggest a causal relationship between the number of high talent players and the scoring rates. I can't find any evidence to even remotely suggest goalie pad changes did what is being claimed.

 

[Chuck Testa]

#16 Kaspars Dagauvins

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Ya it’s crazy to read that kind of logic,
Imagine thinking giving the players more net to shoot at, doesn’t result in more goals.

They gave players more net to shoot at in 2005, and kept making changes to goalie equipment over the next decade. For the next 10 years, players still scored fewer goals year after year without goalie pads getting any bigger and goalies were putting up much better SV% than they had in years past despite having smaller pads. If smaller pads increase scoring, why did scoring still go down for a decade until McDavid and Co showed up and started putting up bigger numbers?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Correlation doesn't prove causation!

Proceeds to claim it was definitely the new young talent that caused it...

To be fair, I also provided loads of evidence to back up my claim so it doesn't have to rely purely on correlation like the claims about goalie pad changes. My claim also seems to hold up to scrutiny pretty well, and doesn't fail to explain basic things, like a 10 year decline in scoring after they changed the goalie pad rules.

 

[Hippasus]

Then it's probably a good thing for me that no one has actually shown anything that proves me wrong yet. That isn't to say that people haven't claimed I'm wrong for various unconvincing reasons that aren't supported by evidence and don't hold up to even the slightly scrutiny, but showing I'm wrong requires more than just repeating the same baseless claims over and over.



I wouldn't say that goalies are less skilled because when I try to test that claim for accuracy, I can't find any evidence to support it. Likewise, I can't find any measurable evidence to support the claims that goalie pad changes had any impact on scoring, even though there is a correlation.

On the other hand, I can easily find a lot of evidence that better offensive players score more points than a less talented offensive players, and also easily identify that the number of highly skilled offensive players in the league fluctuates from year to year, in almost perfect sync with the scoring averages going back to 1970.

It's not as much a proving each other wrong as there are better and worse statistical analyses. One can adjust across the whole league, which I think is what Hockey Reference does, one can adjust relative to average first-liner, average second-pairing defenseman. The latter two criteria might yield a bit more of an apples to apples comparison. The above three methods are more quantitatively tractable, whereas your appeal to talent fluctuations is more qualitative in nature and harder to measure.