Better Goal Scorer.....66 or 8?

[Midnight Judges]

I know you think I'm crazy, but I think there might be at least one or two guys in the league today who could possibly be a better scorer than Jamie Benn, the Ross winner in 2014-15.

100% of hockey fans would have said that same exact thing about Sidney Crosby had he not been there.

And yet there he was putting up 80-something point seasons for years on end only to have his points per season increase during his 30s.

 

[DrunkTurtle]

Lemieux

One has to wonder what the numbers would be with a healthy career or if he just started focusing more on sniping.

 

[qc14]

Not when it comes to contributing to the overall goal scoring averages for the league. A person with 212 points contributed to 212 goals being scored that year, even if he didn't score them all himself. Or do you want to pretend all of his assists didn't contribute anything to those goals being scored?

Again, there's no reason to ignore assists when talking about a players contribution to league scoring averages.

If you are looking at individual point contributions then you also need to look at league points per game and not league goals per game. There is an average of more than one point per goal. If you add up every player's individual point total, then that is greater than the total goals scored per game. I don't know why this is so hard to understand.

And the drop in overall league production doesn't need to all be from one player. What happens if the top 200 players all score 2 fewer goals than their predecessors, but nothing else changes? Seems to me like 400 fewer goals being scored around the league over the season would hurt the goal scoring averages quite a bit. How many players need to be about 5 points worse than the guy they replaced to account for a 2 or 2.5 goal per game differences overall? Maybe 300? 400? Do you think taking the top 10-20 guys out and comparing everyone to guys 20 spots above them might do the trick? I do.

This is the exact point I'm making. There was a clear, large drop in overall league scoring between the 80s and early 90s and the 2000s and 2010s that cannot be attributed to just the loss of a couple Rushmore-type guys.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

100% of hockey fans would have said that same exact thing about Sidney Crosby had he not been there.

And yet there he was putting up 80-something point seasons for years on end only to have his points per season increase during his 30s.

What would they have said? That he was the expected Ross winner, but got hurt, leading to Benn being the best of the rest Ross winner? Or that now there's more than just 2 or 3 guys capable of separating from that second tier, instead of just Crosby/OV/Malkin?

Do you really think it's surprising he scored more points with Guentzel on his wing than he could with Pascal Dupuis and Chris Kunitz? If anything, his points going up because they drafted good young talent for him to play with seems to prove my point.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Yes, and that's a fair point that is certainly supported by the data.

I think if you look at what has happened to the top end scorers relative to 8 years ago, there is something going on in addition to what the adjusted stats show. I'm not sure exactly what that is.

Out of the players you listed for this most recent span - several of them had plenty of opportunity in the drought span as well. But they couldn't do it. At some point the pattern becomes more than coincidence.

Goalie pads height shrunk 2 inches, width an inch or 2, chest protectors shrunk, pants etc were all goalie changes since 13/14.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

If you are looking at individual point contributions then you also need to look at league points per game and not league goals per game. There is an average of more than one point per goal. If you add up every player's individual point total, then that is greater than the total goals scored per game. I don't know why this is so hard to understand.

If you're going to tell me I'm wrong, you need to first understand what I'm talking about. When calculating the league goal scoring averages, they don't add up all the total points that everyone scored. They just add up all the goals that were scored. I'm looking at how many of those goals Gretzky contributed to, either by scoring it himself or by passing to a teammate who scored, giving Gretzky an assist on the play. He had 212 points, which means he contributed to 212 goals being scored by someone in the league that year.

This is the exact point I'm making. There was a clear, large drop in overall league scoring between the 80s and early 90s and the 2000s and 2010s that cannot be attributed to just the loss of a couple Rushmore-type guys.

No, but it can absolutely be attributed to losing the top 20 guys, and shifting everyone up by 20 spots, making the top 200-300 guys 4 or 5 points worse than their counterparts from years past.

 

[qc14]

If you're going to tell me I'm wrong, you need to first understand what I'm talking about. When calculating the league goal scoring averages, they don't add up all the total points that everyone scored. They just add up all the goals that were scored. I'm looking at how many of those goals Gretzky contributed to, either by scoring it himself or by passing to a teammate who scored, giving Gretzky an assist on the play. He had 212 points, which means he contributed to 212 goals being scored by someone in the league that year.

I understand you, and I'm telling you that is a statistically flawed way to look at things.

No, but it can absolutely be attributed to losing the top 20 guys, and shifting everyone up by 20 spots, making the top 200-300 guys 4 or 5 points worse than their counterparts from years past.

I don't know how bad the nostalgia glasses have to be to think that even during that Jamie Benn Art Ross season the league had a talent deficiency equal to the 20 best players from the 80s.

 

[WalterLundy]

Ovechkin. I’ve watched both play and it’s pretty clear to me.

His 2007-08 season adjusts to 89 goals in the 1988-89 environment when you factor in even strength, power play and shorthanded levels for both seasons. 1988-89 Lemieux’s season adjusts to 61 goals in the 2007-08 environment by the same method (76 games played). Ovechkin had 60 goals through his first 76 games in 2008. Their goal scoring peaks are essentially dead even here game for game with Ovi playing more.

Ovechkin gets the smallest possible edge you can grant for peak and then has Lemieux beat by a mile on longevity/consistency. He has the best goal scoring longevity ever so no knock on Mario. As players it is Mario by a big margin but for goal scoring especially for career easy Ovechkin selection here.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I understand you, and I'm telling you that is a statistically flawed way to look at things.

I don't know how bad the nostalgia glasses have to be to think that even during that Jamie Benn Art Ross season the league had a talent deficiency equal to the 20 best players from the 80s.

I don't think you do, and there's nothing wrong with my math.

And, there absolutely was a deficit of high end scorers in the league after the lockout. Between 2007 and 2015, there were 3 players not named Crosby/Malkin/OV who put up a 100 point season (the Sedin twins and OV's setup man, Backstrom). Where's all the elite scorers that you think existed during that era?

 

[Hippasus]

I used two different methods, one for regular season, one for playoffs.

Regular season method is ratio versus average first-line forward.

Playoffs method is ratio versus total goals scored in the given playoffs.

These results are reflected in the second and third columns, respectively.

Conclusion (using this mixed-method): It is close. It may be noteworthy to keep in mind that Lemieux only played 15 games in 1992 for the third column (16 goals scored) while Ovechkin played 24 games for that column (15 goals scored).

Also, Lemieux also scored 16 goals in 23 games played the year prior (1991), but this didn't register for my interpretation of 'peak' or 'better'. I was just going by best regular season and best playoffs in terms of number of goals scored for that player in terms of said ratios.

Ovechkin	2.2854	0.0302
Lemieux	2.2973	0.0289

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Lemieux has over an assist a game in his career in addition to having one of the best GPG ever.

Because he missed most of his “decline” years.

 

[authentic]

Because he missed most of his “decline” years.

He also missed a lot of his peak healthy years where he could’ve padded more points per game

 

[Realgud]

Because he missed most of his “decline” years.

"decline" years like coming back from cancer and scoring 76 points in 43 games?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

"decline" years like coming back from cancer and scoring 76 points in 43 games?

I was reminded earlier in the thread that the cancer treatment was in 1993. He then had back surgery in the off-season that limited him to 22 games in 93-94, before missing the entire 94-95 lockout shortened season to finish getting healthy. He returned from that and scored 161 in 70 games. He retired in 97 because he couldn't tie his own skates due to the back issues, only to return 3 years later and put up 76 in 43.

But, to be fair, 76 in 43 only works out to 123 points over a 70 game sample, which is technically a decline from 161... So, I guess that counts.

 

[Realgud]

I was reminded earlier in the thread that the cancer treatment was in 1993. He then had back surgery in the off-season that limited him to 22 games in 93-94, before missing the entire 94-95 lockout shortened season to finish getting healthy. He returned from that and scored 161 in 70 games. He retired in 97 because he couldn't tie his own skates due to the back issues, only to return 3 years later and put up 76 in 43.

But, to be fair, 76 in 43 only works out to 123 points over a 70 game sample, which is technically a decline from 161... So, I guess that counts.

Pretty sure he dealt with cancer from 1997 to 2000 too. That's why he didn't play. Could be wrong.

 

[Midnight Judges]

What would they have said?

They would have said: "If Sidney Crosby had been there in 2015 or 2016 or 2017 or 2018, he'd have been putting up 110+ points per season.

Except here in real life he didn't.

If you look at the history of the polling forum, many Crosby fans predicted 135+ point seasons every year in those 80-something point seasons. Crosby was healthy, in his 20s, and it simply did not happen.

I don't think there is a particularly good explanation for that but I am disinclined to chalk it up to "Crosby sucks." BTW MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews, Pastrnak, Draisaitl, Rantanan, Kane, Malkin, Ovechkin, Panarin, and many other elite players were also in the NHL at the time and they didn't beat it either. I don't think that's a coincidence.

Do you really think it's surprising he scored more points with Guentzel on his wing than he could with Pascal Dupuis and Chris Kunitz? If anything, his points going up because they drafted good young talent for him to play with seems to prove my point.

Well no. Jake Guentzel played with Crosby in the '17 and '18 seasons and Crosby remained an 80-something point player.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Goalie pads height shrunk 2 inches, width an inch or 2, chest protectors shrunk, pants etc were all goalie changes since 13/14.

To Regal's point though, ^^^these factors should be reflected in the adjusted stats. I'm not sure that they are as it pertains to high end players vs league wide scoring averages.

So your post doesn't actually take anything away from Regal's post. I am merely speculating that some phenomena not captured by adjusted stats may have taken place. And I don't even know what it is. Admittedly, that is not a strong position.

Regal's rebuttal is quite on point IMO.

 

[barkovcanfinnish]

Good question. It’s probably Ovechkin but Lemieux has an argument. If he played the same amount of games as Ovi in his career I think their totals would be pretty similar

What I can safely say though, is Ovi is a better scorer at his current age than Lemieux was at that age. And frankly a better scorer from the age of 35+

 

[Regal]

To Regal's point though, ^^^these factors should be reflected in the adjusted stats. I'm not sure that they are as it pertains to high end players vs league wide scoring averages.

So your post doesn't actually take anything away from Regal's post. I am merely speculating that some phenomena not captured by adjusted stats may have taken place. And I don't even know what it is. Admittedly, that is not a strong position.

Regal's rebuttal is quite on point IMO.

For the record I do agree that the adjusted numbers likely don’t quite capture everything. I do think it is a relatively weak era for top end scorers/goalscorer, though I don’t think it is as dramatic as the adjusted numbers suggest. I don’t think that takes anything away from Ovechkin though really. His goal scoring was still really strong. He just didn’t have any particularly strong competition.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

I understand you, and I'm telling you that is a statistically flawed way to look at things.

I don't know how bad the nostalgia glasses have to be to think that even during that Jamie Benn Art Ross season the league had a talent deficiency equal to the 20 best players from the 80s.

Don't bother arguing with the SakicGM guy, he doesn't really believe in league scoring levels changing

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

They would have said: "If Sidney Crosby had been there in 2015 or 2016 or 2017 or 2018, he'd have been putting up 110+ points per season.

Except here in real life he didn't.

If you look at the history of the polling forum, many Crosby fans predicted 135+ point seasons every year in those 80-something point seasons. Crosby was healthy, in his 20s, and it simply did not happen.

I don't think there is a particularly good explanation for that but I am disinclined to chalk it up to "Crosby sucks." BTW MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews, Pastrnak, Draisaitl, Rantanan, Kane, Malkin, Ovechkin, Panarin, and many other elite players were also in the NHL at the time and they didn't beat it either. I don't think that's a coincidence.

So, because some fans would have said something that turned out to be wrong, you think that proves scoring got harder? Or is it because none of the elite scorers were reaching the fans unrealistic expectations?

And no one is saying Crosby sucked, but his linemates kinda did for much of his career, at least when compared to other 1st line wingers. Kunitz, Dupuis, Perron, Hornqvist all averaged about 20 or 22 goals per game over their careers. How many assists do you think Crosby didn't get because those guys couldn't put the puck in the net more often?

I don't think it's a coincidence that Crosby's best statistical years were the ones he played frequenty with Malkin and Guentzel. It's much easier to put up big numbers when your linemates aren't middle sixers.

Well no. Jake Guentzel played with Crosby in the '17 and '18 seasons and Crosby remained an 80-something point player.

Rookie Guenztel played 40 games in 16-17, and was still just a 48 point player as a 2nd year guy. His 3rd year, he found his stride and became Crosby's first regular linemate proven capable of scoring 40 goals since Malkin in 07-08. That's when Crosby's scoring went back up, where it stayed until Guentzel got traded. Now he's back to playing with 50 point guys, and is on pace to be an 80 point player again.

 

[wetcoast]

I often wonder just how many goals Lemieux would have if he played in todays game where he didn’t have the likes of Hal Gill hooking and holding him. It would be incredible to see

It doesn't really work like that as Mario wasn't the most driven player ever.

I took Ovi as he is known as a goal scorer because that's what he focused on and I get why some people would take Mario but it's such a subjective call really.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Don't bother arguing with the SakicGM guy, he doesn't really believe in league scoring levels changing

I believe the scoring talent of the players in the league is what led to the scoring levels changing, not the baseless assumption that it was "harder to score".

 

[wetcoast]

He also missed a lot of his peak healthy years where he could’ve padded more points per game

You mean counting stats right?

Had Mario been more healthy in his peak years his PPG wouldn't niocitbily go up and conversely had he not "rested" later in his career his PPG would be down some seasons and overall it's probably a wash.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I know you think I'm crazy, but I think there might be at least one or two guys in the league today who could possibly be a better scorer than Jamie Benn, the Ross winner in 2014-15.

A healthy Crosby had 84, 85, 89, 89 points in four straight seasons from ages 27-30. Kind of feels like that mic drop alone just kind of negates this whole line of argument.