Better Goal Scorer.....66 or 8?

[WarriorOfGandhi]

they don't ask how, they ask how many

 

[paracord]

they don't ask how, they ask how many

And that means Lebron is automatically a better scorer than Jordan, Emmitt Smith is automatically better than Barry Sanders and Jim Brown, and Pete Rose is better than Ty Cobb.

No need to debate or watch the games. Just read the stat line. Longest career, most stats piled up wins!

 

[qc14]

"he scored in more ways than Ovi"
Agreed, but scoring in more ways is largely completely irrelevant to overall scoring in this kind of argument. Crosby also scores his goals in a more variety of ways on average, but he is also nowhere near as good at goal scoring as Ovechkin.

While I totally agree with you on everything else, I even have to fight back against this one. Ovi has had so much success in his "office" that people think he only scores from one-timers. Especially the first half of his career, he really could score in any way he wanted to. Rip a wrister from the top of the circle off the rush? Absolutely. Deke through the defense and around the goalie? Often. Clean up a rebound in front of the net? No one better.

 

[Golden_Jet]

HF's adjusted numbers are an interesting exercise, but I don't put a whole lot of weight in them. They also have done a very strange thing with them where after a certain season in the early 2010's the adjusted numbers have been averaged out to a full 82 game schedule. This leads to very strange totals for many players, and over inflates players from recent seasons to a huge degree.

For instance, by adjusted totals Ovi's 2nd best season is 2013 where he has 62 goals in 48 games played. In reality Ovi had 32 goals in 48 games, which would be 55 in a full season. That 55 is adjusted to 62 over 82 games. But for 48 games it should be 36 goals. So in that one season Ovi's adjusted numbers are inflated by 26 total goals, again in just one season.

On the other hand, Lemieux has adjusted totals which reflect his actual games played.

71 in 76 games, 67 in 70 GP, 56 in 60 GP, 38 in 43 GP.

If these seasons where given the same treatment more recent seasons have, they would adjust to 77, 78, 77, and 72 goals.

HF's adjusted totals are inconsistent in methodology across era's and should not be given much weight.


True, that's why I said arguably.

Did Lemieux not miss any time due to shortened seasons?

They adjust out to 82 for those but not for injuries.

 

[10YearsHaveGone]

Did Lemieux not miss any time due to shortened seasons?

They adjust out to 82 for those but not for injuries.

As far as I can tell no.

As to adjusting for shortened seasons, they really shou7ld adjust the game totals to 82 then. It makes players totals in shortened seasons seem absurd. McDavid's 2021 seasons adjusts to 50-108-158 in 56 games which is simply absurd.

Its a not fully thought out methodology so I don't see it as very relevant when looking at players across eras.

 

[qc14]

As far as I can tell no.

As to adjusting for shortened seasons, they really shou7ld adjust the game totals to 82 then. It makes players totals in shortened seasons seem absurd. McDavid's 2021 seasons adjusts to 50-108-158 in 56 games which is simply absurd.

Its a not fully thought out methodology so I don't see it as very relevant when looking at players across eras.

It's not adjusting to 158 points in 56 games though -- it's adjusting to 158 in 82. It's pretty clearly spelled out in their methodology.

 

[10YearsHaveGone]

It's not adjusting to 158 points in 56 games though -- it's adjusting to 158 in 82. It's pretty clearly spelled out in their methodology.

 

[BillyOcean]

Just kind of seems like another little bro argument for caps fans

 

[10YearsHaveGone]

HF's adjusted totals adjust points for an 82 game season, but not the actual games played. This leads to very odd career totals such as the above here for Howie Morenz.

Until they fix their flawed methodology, I don't see it as having much value.

 

[Golden_Jet]

As far as I can tell no.

As to adjusting for shortened seasons, they really shou7ld adjust the game totals to 82 then. It makes players totals in shortened seasons seem absurd. McDavid's 2021 seasons adjusts to 50-108-158 in 56 games which is simply absurd.

There were 2 lockouts in the 90’s that I remember, not sure how affected Mario.

Its a not fully thought out methodology so I don't see it as very relevant when looking at players across eras.

Across eras, seasons have had regular full 84,82,76,72, 70 and 44 game seasons ( no lockouts or pandemics) (probably missed some). So you need some kind of equalization, for games played and average goals scored per game per season

 

[qc14]

View attachment 985975

Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Explaination of hockey stats adjusted for the era the games were played in.

www.hockey-reference.com

They leave the GP column as the actual GP value otherwise every row for every player would always be 82

 

[Caps8112]

Yeah lemieux only played against brodeur hasek and Roy clearly easy pickings.

And Joseph and Balfour but slim pickings after that. You really want to compare goalies not playing butterfly technique for the first half of lemieuxs career. Ovi would have had a field day with standup goalies

 

[10YearsHaveGone]

Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Explaination of hockey stats adjusted for the era the games were played in.

www.hockey-reference.com

They leave the GP column as the actual GP value otherwise every row for every player would always be 82

Surely you are aware that throws off your adjusted GPG from the original table Midnight posted (among other issues)?

It's a relatively simple fix, but until it's done, I don't care to put weight in HF adjusted numbers.

 

[filinski77]

You can change the numbers all you want. I'm just reading what's in the record books. According to the actual record books, Lemieux scored goals at a higher rate than Ovi, regular season, and playoffs.

Scoring in more ways, and being a better one on one player, in my opinion, lends credence to the fact that that player is a better goal scorer. I'm not talking about sheer career numbers. I'm talking about who the best person you've ever seen score goals is. It's the age-old Jordan vs. Lebron debate.

In terms of clutch: Lemieux has way more signature big goals in big situations. 87 Canada Cup, Game 2 goal vs. Minn in SCF in 91, Game 1 winner against the Blackhawks in SCF in 92, etc...Mario Lemieux goals are replayed over and over even now as highlight reels in huge situations and as history for entire countries.

I have no idea about game winning goals or whatever, but Ovi played in an era of 3 on 3 OT and he played a lot more games than Lemieux. But other than that falling on the ground goal in the regular season, I don't recall too many signature Ovi goals. Certainly not to the level of Lemieux. Ovi may very well have more game winners, though, given 3 on 3 and 500 more games. He certainly doesn't have as many winners in big games like SCF, World Cups, or Olympics.

"I'm just reading what's in the record books."
And when you read those record books - you will see Lemieux has no goal scoring record for anything.
Ovechkin: (soon to be) Highest career goal total, most times leading the league in goals, most times leading the league in goals/gp, most powerplay goals, most game winning goals, most OT goals

Ya boy Newsy Lalonde: Highest playoff goal/gp. (unless you want to start talking about goals/gp and how it's harder to maintain a goal/gp rate over a large sample size - in which case you can admit to throwing out the regular season goal/gp comparison between Ovechkin, because you CAN'T compare 915 games of Lemieux who barely played post-age 31 to Ovechkin who has played 50% more games and almost just as much in his 30's as he did in his 20's.

"According to the actual record books, Lemieux scored goals at a higher rate than Ovi, regular season, and playoffs."
And this is exactly your problem. You are correlating that a higher goal/gp = better goal scorer. You are ignoring sample size (Ovi having 50% more games), and those games coming in at older ages where Lemieux inherently would almost guaranteed have scored at a lower rate. And you are also ignoring scoring levels (I'd bring up the whole Crosby/McDavid vs. Recchi and Nicholls thing again but it's clear you refuse to touch that since you know it goes against your opinion.

"Scoring in more ways, and being a better one on one player, in my opinion, lends credence to the fact that that player is a better goal scorer."
I would argue that they 'can' make someone a better scorer. But when the results are that Lemieux being better 1-on-1 and scoring in a more varied type of way didn't actually lead to him being better at scoring goals, then those points are irrelevant to the discussion.

For example, McDavid scores goals in a ton of different ways, and he's also a lot better 1-on-1 than Ovechkin is, but he's nowhere near the goalscorer. The fact of the matter is that Ovechkins shot is so much more elite than Lemieuxs was, that it significantly overcomes a slightly lower level of diversity than Lemieux.

"I'm talking about who the best person you've ever seen score goals is."
And Lemieux may have just been the more talented player overall and that is what is confusing you. Ovechkin has lead the league in goals 9 times. Lemieux nowhere near that. Same dominance when looking at goals/gp. Ovechkin's one-timers might not always be crazy end to end rushes, but it's really just the results that matter (ie. actually scoring goals), and not how impressive those goals are (which I'll get to anyways)

"In terms of clutch: Lemieux has way more signature big goals in big situations. 87 Canada Cup, Game 2 goal vs. Minn in SCF in 91, Game 1 winner against the Blackhawks in SCF in 92, etc...Mario Lemieux goals are replayed over and over even now as highlight reels in huge situations and as history for entire countries."
I'm not denying the Lemieux doesn't have some awesome goals, or that he wasn't clutch. But don't act like Ovechkin doesn't have those moments too. Pretty much everything he did in the Caps cup win was clutch, huge goals in that series. The dueling hat tricks which gets replayed and talked about as one of the best playoff games in NHL history.

"I have no idea about game winning goals or whatever, but Ovi played in an era of 3 on 3 OT and he played a lot more games than Lemieux."
Ovechkin: 135 GWG + 27 OTG in 1,470 GP. 9.18% of Ovi's goals are game winners.
-> Remove 27 OTG/GP/GWG: 108 GWG in 1,443 GP (7.48%)
Lemieux: 74 GWG + 11 OTG in 915 GP. 8.09% of Lemieux's goals are game winners.
-> Remove 11 OTG/GP/GWG: 63 GWG in 904 GP (6.9%)

So give Lemieux all of the advantages possible by largely playing at his peak ages only, remove the OT games from Ovi - and Ovi still has better game winning goal rates (which are probably the easiest of "clutch" metrics to see.

"But other than that falling on the ground goal in the regular season, I don't recall too many signature Ovi goals."
So proof that you haven't watched much hockey in the last 25 years? Ovechkin has likely the most electric goal scoring highlight reel in NHL history.

 

[paracord]

"I'm just reading what's in the record books."
And when you read those record books - you will see Lemieux has no goal scoring record for anything.
Ovechkin: (soon to be) Highest career goal total, most times leading the league in goals, most times leading the league in goals/gp, most powerplay goals, most game winning goals, most OT goals

Ya boy Newsy Lalonde: Highest playoff goal/gp. (unless you want to start talking about goals/gp and how it's harder to maintain a goal/gp rate over a large sample size - in which case you can admit to throwing out the regular season goal/gp comparison between Ovechkin, because you CAN'T compare 915 games of Lemieux who barely played post-age 31 to Ovechkin who has played 50% more games and almost just as much in his 30's as he did in his 20's.

"According to the actual record books, Lemieux scored goals at a higher rate than Ovi, regular season, and playoffs."
And this is exactly your problem. You are correlating that a higher goal/gp = better goal scorer. You are ignoring sample size (Ovi having 50% more games), and those games coming in at older ages where Lemieux inherently would almost guaranteed have scored at a lower rate. And you are also ignoring scoring levels (I'd bring up the whole Crosby/McDavid vs. Recchi and Nicholls thing again but it's clear you refuse to touch that since you know it goes against your opinion.

"Scoring in more ways, and being a better one on one player, in my opinion, lends credence to the fact that that player is a better goal scorer."
I would argue that they 'can' make someone a better scorer. But when the results are that Lemieux being better 1-on-1 and scoring in a more varied type of way didn't actually lead to him being better at scoring goals, then those points are irrelevant to the discussion.

For example, McDavid scores goals in a ton of different ways, and he's also a lot better 1-on-1 than Ovechkin is, but he's nowhere near the goalscorer. The fact of the matter is that Ovechkins shot is so much more elite than Lemieuxs was, that it significantly overcomes a slightly lower level of diversity than Lemieux.

"I'm talking about who the best person you've ever seen score goals is."
And Lemieux may have just been the more talented player overall and that is what is confusing you. Ovechkin has lead the league in goals 9 times. Lemieux nowhere near that. Same dominance when looking at goals/gp. Ovechkin's one-timers might not always be crazy end to end rushes, but it's really just the results that matter (ie. actually scoring goals), and not how impressive those goals are (which I'll get to anyways)

"In terms of clutch: Lemieux has way more signature big goals in big situations. 87 Canada Cup, Game 2 goal vs. Minn in SCF in 91, Game 1 winner against the Blackhawks in SCF in 92, etc...Mario Lemieux goals are replayed over and over even now as highlight reels in huge situations and as history for entire countries."
I'm not denying the Lemieux doesn't have some awesome goals, or that he wasn't clutch. But don't act like Ovechkin doesn't have those moments too. Pretty much everything he did in the Caps cup win was clutch, huge goals in that series. The dueling hat tricks which gets replayed and talked about as one of the best playoff games in NHL history.

"I have no idea about game winning goals or whatever, but Ovi played in an era of 3 on 3 OT and he played a lot more games than Lemieux."
Ovechkin: 135 GWG + 27 OTG in 1,470 GP. 9.18% of Ovi's goals are game winners.
-> Remove 27 OTG/GP/GWG: 108 GWG in 1,443 GP (7.48%)
Lemieux: 74 GWG + 11 OTG in 915 GP. 8.09% of Lemieux's goals are game winners.
-> Remove 11 OTG/GP/GWG: 63 GWG in 904 GP (6.9%)

So give Lemieux all of the advantages possible by largely playing at his peak ages only, remove the OT games from Ovi - and Ovi still has better game winning goal rates (which are probably the easiest of "clutch" metrics to see.

"But other than that falling on the ground goal in the regular season, I don't recall too many signature Ovi goals."
So proof that you haven't watched much hockey in the last 25 years? Ovechkin has likely the most electric goal scoring highlight reel in NHL history.

Yes, I am equating a the fact that one scored goals at a faster pace than the other, scored them in many more ways than the other, and displayed more skill in scoring those goals than the other (Put on the tape).

Yes. For sure!

It's the same way that I can say Barry Sanders was better than Emitt Smith, or Michael Jordan was better than Lebron.

Ovi went out and blasted the puck. He was great at it, but that was his #1 job. Mario was a centerman who was also the leagues premier playmaker for a long time, as well as being the premier goal scorer. He didn't even focus on goal scoring all the time and still put up the highest per game totals we've ever seen.

This is the same way that many people say Lemieux was a better goal scorer than Gretzky too. That debate has been going on for a very long time. Gretzky scored at a slower rate for their career than Lemieux, too.

This isn't some crazy debate that hasn't been going on for a long time. Ovi and Gretzky are going to end up at 894 at almost the same pace! Neither of those guys missed 200+ games in their primes like Lemieux.

Again, put on the tape and compare.

 

[psycat]

Better Mario, Greater Ovechkin(strictly as a goalscorer obviously). So voted Mario based on wording.

Ovi is the first or second greatest goalscorer ever, Gretzky still got a case in my mind, especially for peak/prime and including playoffs. "Generationally compiling" past a vastly superior peak or not is the question. Mario is likely the best goalscorer ever on a per game basis and id argue it's not all that close either, he is also 3rd greatest but abit behind the other two.

Now as for best? I am not even sure Ovechkin clears Matthews at their peaks, let alone Hull x2 and Bossy. He is in that territory for me, just a much longer semi-prime. In contention for 3rd best(with a handfull of others).

 

[Mobiandi]

What a weird way to shift the goalposts. Lemieux always gets discredited in debates against Gretzky. Now that Ovi is set to break Gretzky’s goals record, enter Lemieux to discredit the feat?

 

[psycat]

What a weird way to shift the goalposts. Lemieux always gets discredited in debates against Gretzky. Now that Ovi is set to break Gretzky’s goals record, enter Lemieux to discredit the feat?

Are you talking to me? Because in the case of Gretzky vs Lemieux the peaks are similiar enough except that Gretzky got the vastly superior, ie greater, career. Who was better of them at their best? Certainly debatable but Gretzky had almost twice the career.

Comparing Ovi to Gretzky is just not fair because Ovechkin is half the player. I have no problems with people having the opinion that Ovi is the greatest goalscorer of all time, based on longevity but that also makes him such a weird case because he is not even a shoe-in for a top 15 of all time list in my book, simply because he is so lacking in other departments(compared to other all-time greats of course). For peak goalscoring? Ovi is in my world not that special, similiar peak to Matthews, McDavid etc.

 

[paracord]

Better Mario, Greater Ovechkin(strictly as a goalscorer obviously). So voted Mario based on wording.

Ovi is the first or second greatest goalscorer ever, Gretzky still got a case in my mind, especially for peak/prime and including playoffs. "Generationally compiling" past a vastly superior peak or not is the question. Mario is likely the best goalscorer ever on a per game basis and id argue it's not all that close either, he is also 3rd greatest but abit behind the other two.

Now as for best? I am not even sure Ovechkin clears Matthews at their peaks, let alone Hull x2 and Bossy. He is in that territory for me, just a much longer semi-prime. In contention for 3rd best(with a handfull of others).

This is a good assessment and I agree with it.

my "best" is "of all players in history, if you needed a goal on a breakaway or in a game 7, who do you pick?"

It's much less about overall stats over a career. That speaks to durability, teams that you played on, how long you played, etc. "What is the peak overall we've ever seen a goal scorer be" is what my metric was. Mike Gartner and Marcel Dionne have more goals than Lemieux. Fantastic players, but NO ONE would say they were better goal scorers. Heck, Sidney Crosby will probably end up with more goals than Lemieux. He's nowhere near the goal scorer that Mario was.

Mario had massive reach, massive size, the softest hands in history, the best deking ability in history, a deadly sniping ability, etc.

But I get that other people value other things. That's why the debate is fun!

 

[Fourier]

In the end the thing you won't be able to take away from OV if be breaks the record is the record itself. But in terms of "best goal scorer" there are a lot of ways to look at this. For me what separates guys like Gretzky and Lemieux apart is that their first instinct was almost never to shot but rather to look for the pass if it made sense. OV will seeming shoot almost regardless of circumstance. Of course this is a bit of an exaggeration but there is no question that he would shoot first and ask questions later far more often than the other two. I have no doubt that if either Gretzky or Lemieux had this instinct their goal totals would have been much higher. Now is that part of "best goal scorer" equation. I think the answer will vary person to person.