Better Goal Scorer.....66 or 8?

[10YearsHaveGone]

Peak:
Actually when you account for scoring environment, Ovechkin's peak goal scoring season is equal to or better than Lemieux's:

HF's adjusted numbers are an interesting exercise, but I don't put a whole lot of weight in them. They also have done a very strange thing with them where after a certain season in the early 2010's the adjusted numbers have been averaged out to a full 82 game schedule. This leads to very strange totals for many players, and over inflates players from recent seasons to a huge degree.

For instance, by adjusted totals Ovi's 2nd best season is 2013 where he has 62 goals in 48 games played. In reality Ovi had 32 goals in 48 games, which would be 55 in a full season. That 55 is adjusted to 62 over 82 games. But for 48 games it should be 36 goals. So in that one season Ovi's adjusted numbers are inflated by 26 total goals, again in just one season.

On the other hand, Lemieux has adjusted totals which reflect his actual games played.

71 in 76 games, 67 in 70 GP, 56 in 60 GP, 38 in 43 GP.

If these seasons where given the same treatment more recent seasons have, they would adjust to 77, 78, 77, and 72 goals.

HF's adjusted totals are inconsistent in methodology across era's and should not be given much weight.

I don't know....hard to compete with Gretzky's 4 year run of 92, 71, 87 and 73.

True, that's why I said arguably.

 

[AvroArrow]

OV is the goat goal scorer period.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

how many times did Lemieux lead the league in goals?

I often wonder just how many goals Lemieux would have if he played in todays game where he didn’t have the likes of Hal Gill hooking and holding him. It would be incredible to see

yes, league scoring was notoriously low during Mario's heydey lol.

Also he missed a lot of the Dead puck era thru injuries/temporary retirement. That would have definiltey hurt his rates.

 

[blundluntman]

To me, that means who is the best player you ever saw as far as peak ability. Who do you have take the shot to save your life? To others, "best" means long term consistency and career totals. Vote for whichever you value most.

Using this definition, I think I take Mario at his best. Can't go wrong with Ovi but Mario's shot arsenal is a bit more versatile IMO; better hands, more size, strength, hockey IQ, etc. Ovi's no slouch in any of those departments but Mario was a freak of nature.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

WTF are era adjusted numbers? Where did this come from and how did someone come up with that? Anything to make players from the past look worse than they actually were?

I think the idea is—if in one era the average #goals per game is 4 and in a different era it’s 8, then a player would need to score at a rate twice as high in the second era to be equal to a player in the first.

 

[Midnight Judges]

HF's adjusted numbers are an interesting exercise, but I don't put a whole lot of weight in them. They also have done a very strange thing with them where after a certain season in the early 2010's the adjusted numbers have been averaged out to a full 82 game schedule. This leads to very strange totals for many players, and over inflates players from recent seasons to a huge degree.

For instance, by adjusted totals Ovi's 2nd best season is 2013 where he has 62 goals in 48 games played. In reality Ovi had 32 goals in 48 games, which would be 55 in a full season. That 55 is adjusted to 62 over 82 games. But for 48 games it should be 36 goals. So in that one season Ovi's adjusted numbers are inflated by 26 total goals, again in just one season.

On the other hand, Lemieux has adjusted totals which reflect his actual games played.

71 in 76 games, 67 in 70 GP, 56 in 60 GP, 38 in 43 GP.

If these seasons where given the same treatment more recent seasons have, they would adjust to 77, 78, 77, and 72 goals.

HF's adjusted totals are inconsistent in methodology across era's and should not be given much weight.

No, they are not inconsistent.

When the league caused fewer games via lockout or back in the 60s when there was a 70 game schedule, or the 50s when there was a 50 game schedule, hockey references adjusts for this. Those shortened seasons were not due to player attributes.

When an individual player misses games due to individual player attributes, hockey reference does not adjust.

Lemieux's deficiencies in terms of durability are not on the same footing as a league wide lockout shortened season.

If these seasons where given the same treatment more recent seasons have, they would adjust to 77, 78, 77, and 72 goals.

They are given the same treatment as recent seasons, and no they wouldn't adjust to the numbers you think they would. Here are the equations:

Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Explaination of hockey stats adjusted for the era the games were played in.

www.hockey-reference.com

Durability is a virtue in all professional sports.

 

[Toby91ca]

Maybe no argument for overall career totals.

But to say there is "no argument" is crazy. Lemieux, again, scored goals at a higher rate than Ovi in both the regular season and playoffs, he scored in more ways than Ovi, he was a better one on one player against a goalie than Ovi, etc.

He also scored more goals in the the most clutch situations.

Of course there is an argument for Lemieux to be a better goal scorer than Ovechkin. He had 13 short handed goals one year!

Ok, I was probably too black and white about it in terms of "no argument"....but I do think consistency and longevity matter. I totally get that there is a different between who you would have as the greatest of all time and then who do you think was simply the best pure goal scorer ever. Greatest of all time needs to have longevity, but you still need some of that in other box as well.

I had a look at the top goal scoring seasons each year since 1950 and, factually, neither Lemieux, nor Ovechkin dominated the competition in any single year like some others. Perhaps this is partly due to having better competition? Who knows.

In those 75ish seasons, 14 times has the leading scorer had 30%+ more goals than #2 as follows:

• Howe - 3 times (53%, 52% and 33%)
• Bobby Hull - 3 times (69%, 52% and 49%)
• Esposito - 3 times (49%, 32% and 31%)
• Gretzky - 2 times (55% and 44%)
• Brett Hull - 2 times (69% and 30%)
• Bure - 1 time (32%)

Interesting that father and son both had 69% greater than #2.....Bobby having the highest by rounding.

Ovechkin's highest is 25%....was above 20% for 3 of his 9 titles, most in single digits. Lemieux's highest was also 25%.

 

[kevsh]

Using this definition, I think I take Mario at his best. Can't go wrong with Ovi but Mario's shot arsenal is a bit more versatile IMO; better hands, more size, strength, hockey IQ, etc. Ovi's no slouch in any of those departments but Mario was a freak of nature.

All this.

And the unfair part of the comparison is that a critical point (just judging on this thread alone) in the argument for Ovi is his longevity of scoring at a high/elite level and of course Lemieux can't compare because his career was cut short due to injuries.

So on one hand we know Ovi was an elite scorer for a very long time but can only assume Lemieux would have (or wouldn't), so there's really no fair comparison there.

Then the era difference for which no metric or "era adjusted" stat can fairly adjust for the differences. Mario fought through trap defenses and more clutching & grabbing than any player today could ever imagine. Ovi on the other was at his peak during one of the lowest scoring periods in modern NHL history.

So what do we do? Judge it however you see fit. I saw a lot of both guys and they are legendary in different ways, but if I'm a coach and desperately need a goal late in game 7 of a SC final, Mario's the sniper I want on the ice.

 

[blundluntman]

All this.

And the unfair part of the comparison is that a critical point (just judging on this thread alone) in the argument for Ovi is his longevity of scoring at a high/elite level and of course Lemieux can't compare because his career was cut short due to injuries.

So on one hand we know Ovi was an elite scorer for a very long time but can only assume Lemieux would have (or wouldn't), so there's really no fair comparison there.

Then the era difference for which no metric or "era adjusted" stat can fairly adjust for the differences. Mario fought through trap defenses and more clutching & grabbing than any player today could ever imagine. Ovi on the other was at his peak during one of the lowest scoring periods in modern NHL history.

So what do we do? Judge it however you see fit. I saw a lot of both guys and they are legendary in different ways, but if I'm a coach and desperately need a goal late in game 7 of a SC final, Mario's the sniper I want on the ice.

Agreed. Tough to really use stats to compare the two so I'm going strictly off what I've seen from their peaks. Ovi definitely has the advantage if we go down the longevity road (as is) but I know I'd lose sleep if I didn't pick Mario for one game.

 

[Caps8112]

lemieux scored over half his goals in the 80s. all of the leagues all time leading scorers come from the 80s. Ovi played in the peak of goaltending, defensive strategy and training. Someone said above that Ovi didnt have an all time great to compete with for rockets but thats really because of how much better he was than the next group of goal scorers. Havent looked at any of the "adjusted" stats websites but I would imagine playing in the 80s has to be a big detractor for players of that era. The goaltending was subpar. Players on the 3rd and 4th lines were not in the same world as 3rd and 4th liners of today.

 

[tarheelhockey]

When Lemeiux was on a heater, he was arguably the best player to play the game.

Problem is, he wasn’t always on. He spent a lot of his career hurt, or sick, or frustrated, or surrounded by scrubs.

Ovechkin has been by far and away the most consistent goal scorer in history. He’s a tier above the next guy in terms of consistency. When people talk about him, it inevitably involves comparison to a machine.

It’s like comparing Shakespeare to an industrial printing press. Which is better at making books? Kind of depends on the perspective underlying the question.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I guess Ovechkin scoring the most goals would make him the better goal scorer but cannot be compared to Lemieux as an overall player.

Brett Hull was also a better goal scorer than Mario and is a better comparable to Ovi based on how they scored their goals. Mario and 99 were far more than 1 shot snipers.

Over his first 745 games in the NHL, Mario Lemieux scored 613 goals, an astonishing 0.82 goals per game. If we assume he plays about 70 games over the next 3 seasons, instead of missing those game fighting cancer, he could have been at 800 goals before he reached 1000 games. Let him stay healthy enough to play 1400 games like OV, and 1100 goals isn't out of the question.

 

[Toby91ca]

lemieux scored over half his goals in the 80s. all of the leagues all time leading scorers come from the 80s. Ovi played in the peak of goaltending, defensive strategy and training. Someone said above that Ovi didnt have an all time great to compete with for rockets but thats really because of how much better he was than the next group of goal scorers. Havent looked at any of the "adjusted" stats websites but I would imagine playing in the 80s has to be a big detractor for players of that era. The goaltending was subpar. Players on the 3rd and 4th lines were not in the same world as 3rd and 4th liners of today.

Thing is though, Ovechkin wasn't that much better than all of his competitors....well, he was, but just not a year to year basis. The difference is that he was more consistent and kept doing it for a long, long time. He didn't blow away the competition in individual seasons (neither did Lemieux).

Personally, and I say the same about Gretzky, I see people like Hull and Ovechkin as goal scorers, not Gretzky and Lemieux. But Gretzky and Lemieux scored a ton of goals simply because they were so good. I never saw either of them as snipers though.

I know someone suggested they would take Lemieux if you were in a situation and your team needed the goal. That's fair, but what if you had to pick the guy that was only able to score the goal, they could create the goal by setting someone else up. Would you still pick Mario? Would it matter who the teammates were? Do people think Mario could create the goals on his own better than Ovechkin? Maybe...tough to say. I do think Brett Hull was more in need of a set up guy though.

 

[Dallas Winston]

Lemieux very easily

 

[DANOZ28]

hull & oates were the perfect match. impossible to compare fairly because mario was so often injured. great 8's shot was probably 2nd to none but he rarely creates or sets up a play. just my 1 cent. gretzky is still the ultimate because he could pass / playmaker and deadly goal scorer / sniper.

 

[Toby91ca]

Over his first 745 games in the NHL, Mario Lemieux scored 613 goals, an astonishing 0.82 goals per game. If we assume he plays about 70 games over the next 3 seasons, instead of missing those game fighting cancer, he could have been at 800 goals before he reached 1000 games. Let him stay healthy enough to play 1400 games like OV, and 1100 goals isn't out of the question.

I see this kind of stuff all the time with Lemieux and it just doesn't make a lot of sense. He isn't going to score that that rate if he played all the games. By the way, Gretzky scored more in his first 745 games (while playing full seasons)....I get it, higher scoring years for the most part....there is some overlap though.

Also, Mario didn't miss those 3 years fighting cancer, he was retired during that time, cancer was years earlier. He basically missed 68 games because of cancer, the vast majority of the games he missed was because of his body, mostly his back. He probably could have avoided some of that if he took care of himself better.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Lemieux is always coulda, woulda, shoulda here.

 

[norrisnick]

Lemieux almost had 700 in 900 games if he wouldnt have had to dealt with all the crap he dealt with he would have had like 1100 goals in the same amount of games played as ovechkin.

If Mario were a better player, he'd have done better. How very John Madden...

 

[Oilslick941611]

In a results based business the results are what matters. Ovechkin is about be the top goal scorer in nhl history. So it’s pretty obvious imo.

 

[895]

Peak:
Actually when you account for scoring environment, Ovechkin's peak goal scoring season is equal to or better than Lemieux's:

NHL & WHA Single Season Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

1. Brett Hull (78), 2. Alex Ovechkin (72), 3. Mario Lemieux (71), 4. Cooney Weiland (70), Phil Esposito (70), 6. Wayne Gretzky (69), 7. Babe Dye (68), Wayne Gretzky (68), Steven Stamkos (68), Auston Matthews (68)

www.hockey-reference.com

tie or edge to Ovechkin.

Prime:
Ovechkin led the NHL in goals 9 times.
Lemieux led the NHL in goals 3 times.

Ovechkin easily wins.

Longevity:
Ovechkin has 997 adjusted goals
Lemieux has 616

Total ass kicking here by Ovechkin in the longevity department.

Even if we give Lemieux the benefit of extrapolation:
Lemieux led the NHL in GPG 6 times.
Ovechkin led the NHL in GPG 9 times.

So any which way you slice it, Ovechkin is the superior goal scorer.

Here's a bunch more data that Lemieux fans aren't going to want to read:

View attachment 985787

I love your dedication to boosting Ovechkin

A lot of the times I want to come in and write something and I see you’ve already covered it.

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

If my life depended on it and my team needed a crucial goal in the dying seconds of a game, I'd take Lemieux every single time. He could score even with three guys clinging on to him.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Mario Lemieux was better at scoring goals as he had a better arsenal of ways to score than OV, as great as his shot was. OV changed his game into a trigger man after his first 5 years while Lemieux was a top 2 offensive player at worst every year for nearly 2 decades. If his sole intention was to score goals I don't see any season why Lemieux wouldn't have scored more, but it just reinforces why breaking down offensive production into piecemeal chunks is silly.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Ovi is the greatest goal scorer to ever lace em up

 

[cneely]

lemieux scored over half his goals in the 80s. all of the leagues all time leading scorers come from the 80s. Ovi played in the peak of goaltending, defensive strategy and training. Someone said above that Ovi didnt have an all time great to compete with for rockets but thats really because of how much better he was than the next group of goal scorers. Havent looked at any of the "adjusted" stats websites but I would imagine playing in the 80s has to be a big detractor for players of that era. The goaltending was subpar. Players on the 3rd and 4th lines were not in the same world as 3rd and 4th liners of today.

You would actually think the opposite should be true. Most of Mario's career was played in a 21 team league, meaning 30% fewer NHLer's. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th liners of the 80's would be much better than today.

That's one of the big reasons I take issue with era adjusted stats. I'm old enough to have seen the entire career for both players. It's close, but with each at their prime, for one game, I pretty comfortably take Mario.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

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