Better Goal Scorer.....66 or 8?

[paracord]

Alex Ovechkin is about to become the Hank Aaron of hockey, breaking one of the most celebrated records in the sport....a record that was held by the likes of Howe and Gretzky, hockey royalty, and one that was considered untouchable since Gretzky broke it.

Ovi will likely do it in roughly the same amount of games as Gretzky too, give or take. One hell of an accomplishment and a testament to his longevity, durability, and consistency.

However, Mario Lemieux is the all time leader in goals per game in regular season + playoffs with 766 goals in 1,022 games for a .750 clip, just above Mike Bossy. He missed a couple hundred+ games in his prime, or that .750 would have likely been even higher, and he may have held the goals record now (I know, "what if.") I've always considered him the best goal scorer of all time.

His eye test/highlight reel is off the charts. He is widely regarded as the best one on one / breakaway player of all time, and I think many would agree he could score goals in many more ways than Ovechkin. His 87 Canada cup 11 goal performance with the best players in the world, his 5 goals in 5 ways performance, his 70 and 80+ goal seasons, 13 shorties in one season, etc, provide singular data points showing peak greatness that is very high.

There is also the debate of what does "best" mean? To me, that means who is the best player you ever saw as far as peak ability. Who do you have take the shot to save your life? To others, "best" means long term consistency and career totals. Vote for whichever you value most.

So, who is the "better" goal scorer.....66 or 8? Does this new record change your view of Ovi, do you now consider him the greatest, have you considered him the greatest for a while, or is he still not quite the best goal scorer ever?

Some may say neither is the "best" ever, but that's a poll for another day. .

Click to read more...

 

[LTIR]

I guess Ovechkin scoring the most goals would make him the better goal scorer but cannot be compared to Lemieux as an overall player.

Brett Hull was also a better goal scorer than Mario and is a better comparable to Ovi based on how they scored their goals. Mario and 99 were far more than 1 shot snipers.

 

[10YearsHaveGone]

This is a very interesting comparison. It comes down to what you consider the best?

66 had arguably the best peak/prime for goalscoring in league history, but an unfortunately short career. He also put up some very impressive per game totals later in his career (1996, 97, 01).

8 had a less impressive peak/prime (still among the best all time) but has some of the best longevity and consistency we have seen in the sport.

I don't think there is a correct answer.

 

[GhostfaceWu]

Lemieux almost had 700 in 900 games if he wouldnt have had to dealt with all the crap he dealt with he would have had like 1100 goals in the same amount of games played as ovechkin.

 

[NVious]

Equal for me, it's debatable that Lemieux has the best peak in Hockey, but Ovi's durability and unique play style are equally insane. Can't go wrong with either one.

It's tough to say because you can say at his peak Lemieux is better, but Ovechkin's total career from start to finish is really crazy. Too close to call for me personally.

 

[Midnight Judges]

66 had arguably the best peak/prime for goalscoring in league history, but an unfortunately short career. He also put up some very impressive per game totals later in his career (1996, 97, 01).

Peak:
Actually when you account for scoring environment, Ovechkin's peak goal scoring season is equal to or better than Lemieux's:

NHL & WHA Single Season Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

1. Brett Hull (78), 2. Alex Ovechkin (72), 3. Mario Lemieux (71), 4. Cooney Weiland (70), Phil Esposito (70), 6. Wayne Gretzky (69), 7. Babe Dye (68), Wayne Gretzky (68), Steven Stamkos (68), Auston Matthews (68)

www.hockey-reference.com

tie or edge to Ovechkin.

Prime:
Ovechkin led the NHL in goals 9 times.
Lemieux led the NHL in goals 3 times.

Ovechkin easily wins.

Longevity:
Ovechkin has 997 adjusted goals
Lemieux has 616

Total ass kicking here by Ovechkin in the longevity department.

Even if we give Lemieux the benefit of extrapolation:
Lemieux led the NHL in GPG 6 times.
Ovechkin led the NHL in GPG 9 times.

So any which way you slice it, Ovechkin is the superior goal scorer.

Here's a bunch more data that Lemieux fans aren't going to want to read:

 

[Toby91ca]

66 had arguably the best peak/prime for goalscoring in league history

I don't know....hard to compete with Gretzky's 4 year run of 92, 71, 87 and 73.

 

[paracord]

I don't know....hard to compete with Gretzky's 4 year run of 92, 71, 87 and 73.

Gretzky, Bossy, and Howe also have arguments for "best" ever goal scorer, no doubt.

 

[qc14]

Goal posts already shifting I guess ...

If you're taking per-game rates into account you also have to take era-adjusted numbers in too and Mario's 616 are a whopping 381 goals less than Ovi's era-adjusted number. He's only 19th all-time in era-adjusted numbers.

 

[paracord]

Goal posts already shifting I guess ...

If you're taking per-game rates into account you also have to take era-adjusted numbers in too and Mario's 616 are a whopping 381 goals less than Ovi's era-adjusted number. He's only 19th all-time in era-adjusted numbers.

I think that's an indictment on your "adjusting" more than Lemieux's standing.

Unless you think Lemieux is the 19th best goal scorer ever. HAHA!

You're not making a good case for "era adjustments" with this.

 

[loadie]

I often wonder just how many goals Lemieux would have if he played in todays game where he didn’t have the likes of Hal Gill hooking and holding him. It would be incredible to see

 

[Midnight Judges]

66 had arguably the best peak/prime for goalscoring in league history

Mario Lemieux didn't even have the best goal scoring peak among players during his own generation.

Gretzky beat Lemieux in raw goals.

Brett Hull beat Lemieux in adjusted goals.

 

[loadie]

Goal posts already shifting I guess ...

If you're taking per-game rates into account you also have to take era-adjusted numbers in too and Mario's 616 are a whopping 381 goals less than Ovi's era-adjusted number. He's only 19th all-time in era-adjusted numbers.

WTF are era adjusted numbers? Where did this come from and how did someone come up with that? Anything to make players from the past look worse than they actually were?

 

[paracord]

I often wonder just how many goals Lemieux would have if he played in todays game where he didn’t have the likes of Hal Gill hooking and holding him. It would be incredible to see

If you figure just missing the whole 1994 and huge chunks of 91 and 93, you could very safely add 150 goals. That doesn't even account for the 2.5 years he skipped from 97 to 2000. figure another 75 there VERY conservatively.

He's already past 900 at that point.

 

[Machinehead]

Lemieux has a higher GPG but Ovechkin played in harder years to score, all things considered.

Ovechkin's nine goal-scoring titles is the most all-time and he's certainly the most dominant goal-scorer over his peers of all-time, when you consider longevity.

Can't really add much to what @Midnight Judges said. This shouldn't be all that close.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Lemieux almost had 700 in 900 games if he wouldnt have had to dealt with all the crap he dealt with he would have had like 1100 goals in the same amount of games played as ovechkin.

Your post assumes the scoring environment in the 80s and 90s was the same as the 2010s.

It's not even close:

NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

Check out the latest NHL League Averages including shots, saves, goal averages and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

 

[qc14]

I think that's an indictment on your "adjusting" more than Lemieux's standing.

Unless you think Lemieux is the 19th best goal scorer ever. HAHA!

Take it up with Hockey Reference not me ...

NHL & WHA Career Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

1. Alex Ovechkin (997), 2. Gordie Howe (925), 3. Jaromír Jágr (841), 4. Wayne Gretzky (758), 5. Teemu Selänne (741), 6. Brett Hull (738), 7. Jarome Iginla (706), 8. Sidney Crosby (680), 9. Brendan Shanahan (672), 10. Phil Esposito (671)

www.hockey-reference.com

Looking at the names ahead of him, I don't think having him 19th in total goals is at all ridiculous. Even on a per-game basis though, Ovi's .68 adjusted goals/game is actually slightly higher than Mario's .67.

If you want to look at just raw totals, go ahead. Once you look at one sort of adjustment (which g/gp is) you have to take into account all of them. Ovi comes out number one on the list no matter how you slice it.

 

[Machinehead]

WTF are era adjusted numbers? Where did this come from and how did someone come up with that? Anything to make players from the past look worse than they actually were?

Depends on the era. These types of stats often give a lot of love to guys who played before the war and were lost to the sands of time. They rate Howie Morenz's 1927-28 as the best point-scoring season of all-time. This was an era, I believe, where there was only one assist.

 

[paracord]

Your post assumes the scoring environment in the 80s and 90s was the same as the 2010s.

It's not even close.

Well, one things for sure....it was easier to lead the lead in goal scoring in the 2010s without many all-time great goal scorers running around like in the 80s and 90s!

Whoever did it didn't need to contend with Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, or Brett Hull.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Lemieux was the most dominant player i ever watched

 

[qc14]

WTF are era adjusted numbers? Where did this come from and how did someone come up with that? Anything to make players from the past look worse than they actually were?

Hockey Reference has the most well-known and straightforward calculation. It's a way to try to evenly compare players across different roster and scoring environments. It doesn't always make players from the past look worse. In their Gordie Howe example, he actually gets a boost for only having 70 games in a league season back then and the pretty low-scoring environment of the 50s.

Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Explaination of hockey stats adjusted for the era the games were played in.

www.hockey-reference.com

 

[Toby91ca]

Peak:
Actually when you account for scoring environment, Ovechkin's peak goal scoring season is equal to or better than Lemieux's:

NHL & WHA Single Season Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com

1. Brett Hull (78), 2. Alex Ovechkin (72), 3. Mario Lemieux (71), 4. Cooney Weiland (70), Phil Esposito (70), 6. Wayne Gretzky (69), 7. Babe Dye (68), Wayne Gretzky (68), Steven Stamkos (68), Auston Matthews (68)

www.hockey-reference.com

tie or edge to Ovechkin.

Prime:
Ovechkin led the NHL in goals 9 times.
Lemieux led the NHL in goals 3 times.

Ovechkin easily wins.

Longevity:
Ovechkin has 997 adjusted goals
Lemieux has 616

Total ass kicking here by Ovechkin in the longevity department.

Even if we give Lemieux the benefit of extrapolation:
Lemieux led the NHL in GPG 6 times.
Ovechkin led the NHL in GPG 9 times.

So any which way you slice it, Ovechkin is the superior goal scorer.

Here's a bunch more data that Lemieux fans aren't going to want to read:

View attachment 985787

"Adjusted" data isn't real data though.

I totally agree however, there really is no argument for Lemieux being a better goal scorer than Ovechkin. Could he have been? Maybe, but it didn't happen.

Lemieux played 915 games in his career and scored 690 goals and had 1,723pts. In Gretzky's first 915 games he had 715 goals and 2,119 pts. Extrapolate that to a 1,500 game career would be 1,172 goals and 3,474pts. This is generally why I ignore what ifs, they never happened and probably never could have. I know Gretzky suggests Mario could have broken all of his records if he stayed healthy.....that's just a humble thing to say, it likely wouldn't have happened. Yes, at one point Mario led in PPG, but that's after Gretzky played a full career into his late 30s and by the time Mario played more games, his stat came down as well.

 

[Midnight Judges]

WTF are era adjusted numbers? Where did this come from and how did someone come up with that? Anything to make players from the past look worse than they actually were?

In 1982, the average NHL team scored 4.01 goals per game.

In 2002, it was 2.62.

In other words, teams were scoring 53% more goals on average in some seasons relative to others.

This is important context and should be taken into account.

 

[paracord]

"Adjusted" data isn't real data though.

I totally agree however, there really is no argument for Lemieux being a better goal scorer than Ovechkin. Could he have been? Maybe, but it didn't happen.

Lemieux played 915 games in his career and scored 690 goals and had 1,723pts. In Gretzky's first 915 games he had 715 goals and 2,119 pts. Extrapolate that to a 1,500 game career would be 1,172 goals and 3,474pts. This is generally why I ignore what ifs, they never happened and probably never could have. I know Gretzky suggests Mario could have broken all of his records if he stayed healthy.....that's just a humble thing to say, it likely wouldn't have happened. Yes, at one point Mario led in PPG, but that's after Gretzky played a full career into his late 30s and by the time Mario played more games, his stat came down as well.

We're talking just about goal scoring here though. And there is something to just be said about common sense. When Mario played directly with Gretzky and both were in their prime, Mario was the goal scorer and Wayne was the setup man. Why? Because that's the way they had the most success. Mario was a better goal scorer, Wayne was the all time great QB.

I know Wayne scored 92 goals one year, and Lemieux only 85, but it's a bit more nuanced than that. Watching the tape between Lemieux and Gretzky scoring goals is also relevant.

In 1982, the average NHL team scored 4.01 goals per game.

In 2002, it was 2.62.

In other words, teams were scoring 53% more goals on average in some seasons relative to others.

This is important context and should be taken into account.

That's why the eye test is important.

 

[paracord]

"Adjusted" data isn't real data though.

I totally agree however, there really is no argument for Lemieux being a better goal scorer than Ovechkin. Could he have been? Maybe, but it didn't happen.

Lemieux played 915 games in his career and scored 690 goals and had 1,723pts. In Gretzky's first 915 games he had 715 goals and 2,119 pts. Extrapolate that to a 1,500 game career would be 1,172 goals and 3,474pts. This is generally why I ignore what ifs, they never happened and probably never could have. I know Gretzky suggests Mario could have broken all of his records if he stayed healthy.....that's just a humble thing to say, it likely wouldn't have happened. Yes, at one point Mario led in PPG, but that's after Gretzky played a full career into his late 30s and by the time Mario played more games, his stat came down as well.

Maybe no argument for overall career totals.

But to say there is "no argument" is crazy. Lemieux, again, scored goals at a higher rate than Ovi in both the regular season and playoffs, he scored in more ways than Ovi, he was a better one on one player against a goalie than Ovi, etc.

He also scored more goals in the the most clutch situations.

Of course there is an argument for Lemieux to be a better goal scorer than Ovechkin. He had 13 short handed goals one year!