Best Non-Big Four Offensive Season Since 1967 Expansion - #6

[DitchMarner]

Since the '67 expansion, what season is the sixth best offensive season by a non-Big Four (Gretzky, Lemieux, Orr, Howe) player?

People generally think of points scored when they think of "offense," but really, you can consider things like scoring chance generation, effective neutral zone transition game, effective forechecking that causes turnovers, good puck possession in the offensive zone to be part of a player's offensive game.

Things like back checking, defensive play and positioning, shot blocking, body checking to knock players off the puck outside of the attacking zone are irrelevant here. These are things to consider when voting in the best two-way seasons since 1967 polls series.


Results:

#1. Connor McDavid 2023 (54.5%)
#2. Connor McDavid 2021 (50%)
#3. Jaromir Jagr 1999 (44.4%)
#4. Steve Yzerman 1989 (32.1%)
#5. Phil Esposito 1971 (31.4%)

Click to read more...

 

[Regal]

I’ve considered Ovechkin in ‘08 the best from at least Jagr ‘99 to McDavid ‘21, so ended up voting it here. Torn a bit on Kucherov or MacKinnon this year, though I think Ovechkin’s goals and primary points with much less help give him the edge even if the two this year are better production overall.

 

[Coffees]

Kurri 84

 

[CanadienShark]

Ovy 08

 

[bobholly39]

Kurri 84

lol - this is probably the absolute worst season listed

Adjusted stats on HF aren't perfect, but as a point of reference it adjusts to 90 points. It's also almost 100 points less than his teammate.

 

[bobholly39]

I think Ovechkin's 2008 season gets overrated.

Leading scorers over a 5 year period:

125 points
120 points
112 points
113 points
112 points

Why does the one in bolded stand out so far and beyond the others? Ovechkin was definitely a fantastic player at this point - scoring points, goals, hitting, etc - but I don't know that this season stands out as much. I know the 65 goals is special, but goals are a subset of points, and his point total simply doesn't stand out as much.

Post lock out - I definitely have Kucherov 2024 & MacKinnon 2024 ahead of it.

I'm probably going to vote for Kucherov 2024 - but the other season I am considering highly is Jagr 1996. He was phenomenal that year. I'm also not sure how high to rank Coffey 86, but it might be soon.

 

[Coffees]

lol - this is probably the absolute worst season listed

Adjusted stats on HF aren't perfect, but as a point of reference it adjusts to 90 points. It's also almost 100 points less than his teammate.

70 goals

 

[bobholly39]

70 goals

Yeah - that's 1985, not 1984.

In 1984 (ie 83-84), Kurri only played 64 games, with 52 goals and 113 points. A good season, but doesn't belong on this list. I assume OP meant to list 85 & 86 for Kurri.

I still don't think Kurri 1984-1985 season is the next one that should be voted in, but at least that's a much stronger season for him.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I think Ovechkin's 2008 season gets overrated.

Leading scorers over a 5 year period:

125 points
120 points
112 points
113 points
112 points

Why does the one in bolded stand out so far and beyond the others? Ovechkin was definitely a fantastic player at this point - scoring points, goals, hitting, etc - but I don't know that this season stands out as much. I know the 65 goals is special, but goals are a subset of points, and his point total simply doesn't stand out as much.

Post lock out - I definitely have Kucherov 2024 & MacKinnon 2024 ahead of it.

I'm probably going to vote for Kucherov 2024 - but the other season I am considering highly is Jagr 1996. He was phenomenal that year. I'm also not sure how high to rank Coffey 86, but it might be soon.

The obvious answer is that looking at points alone in a vacuum is lazy and unindicative - especially when the scoring environment has changed (which it did from 2006 to 2008).

There were 2.92 GAA per game in 2005-06 when Thornton had 125 points. It was 2.61 in 2008.

Relatively speaking, Thornton's season adjusts to 112 points, 26 goals, and 88 primary points.

Ovie had 112 points, 65 goals, and 101 primary points.

Ovechkin was playing on a recent lottery team. Thornton was playing on a first place team coming off a conference finals.

There is also the massive physical element of Ovechkin's game that is a huge factor in playing against him. None of the other players on this list are in Ovechkin's galaxy in that regard. Ovechkin had 220 hits in 2008 (top 10 in the NHL), which is unheard of for a player who won the Art Ross, Rocket, Hart, and Lindsay.

There is a reason why the 65 goal mark and the 101 primary point mark wasn't surpassed until league-wide scoring went up significantly (and even then Ovechkin's season adjusts to more goals than Matthews's). It's simply an outlier season, and that was obvious tot everyone at the time and for quite some time after.

 

[bobholly39]

The obvious answer is that looking at points alone in a vacuum is lazy and unindicative - especially when the scoring environment has changed (which it did from 2006 to 2008).

There were 2.92 GAA per game in 2005-06 when Thornton had 125 points. It was 2.61 in 2008.

Relatively speaking, Thornton's season adjusts to 112 points, 26 goals, and 88 primary points.

Ovie had 112 points, 65 goals, and 101 primary points.

Ovechkin was playing on a recent lottery team. Thornton was playing on a first place team coming off a conference finals.

There is also the massive physical element of Ovechkin's game that is a huge factor in playing against him. None of the other players on this list are in Ovechkin's galaxy in that regard. Ovechkin had 220 hits in 2008 (top 10 in the NHL), which is unheard of for a player who won the Art Ross, Rocket, Hart, and Lindsay.

There is a reason why the 65 goal mark and the 101 primary point mark wasn't surpassed until league-wide scoring went up significantly (and even then Ovechkin's season adjusts to more goals than Matthews's). It's simply an outlier season, and that was obvious tot everyone at the time and for quite some time after.

Considering this is about offense only - I'm not sure how much Ovechkin's hitting should be taken into account. We aren't taking defense or other things into account, these polls are about just offense.

If what you care about is primary points:

Ovechkin 2008 - 101
Jagr 1996 - 111
Kucherov 2024 - 106
MacKinnon 2024 - 101
Draisaitl 2023 - 112

As for adjusted stats - looking at HR's method as the end all be all definitely has shortcomings. But if that's what you want to base yourself off, here are how all of those seasons look with adjusted points:

Jagr 1996 - 144 adjusted points, 111 primary
Ovechkin 2008 - 122 adjusted points, 101 primary
Draisaitl 2023 - 122 adjusted points, 112 primary
MacKinnon 2024 - 138 adjusted points, 101 primary
Kucherov 2024 - 140 adjusted points, 106 primary


So - going by absolutely nothing else then what you say is most important - adjusted points & primary points - the way you should be ranking these seasons is:

1/2 Kucherov 2024 & Jagr 1996 in some order
3. MacKinnon 2024
4. Draisaitl 2023
5. Ovechkin 2008

 

[jigglysquishy]

McDavid put up 124 primary points (118 HR adjusted) in 2023, leading the league in both goals and assists. The highest total, whether in raw points, HRef adjusted, VsX, or any other adjusted method, since Lemieux 1996. The only non Big Four influenced time someone lead in both goals and assists since the merger. By any reasonable adjustment method it is the best offensive performance over a full season outside the Big Four all time.

But the usual suspect still picked Ovechkin 2008 over McDavid 2023.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Considering this is about offense only - I'm not sure how much Ovechkin's hitting should be taken into account. We aren't taking defense or other things into account, these polls are about just offense.

If what you care about is primary points:

Ovechkin 2008 - 101
Jagr 1996 - 111
Kucherov 2024 - 106
MacKinnon 2024 - 101
Draisaitl 2023 - 112

As for adjusted stats - looking at HR's method as the end all be all definitely has shortcomings. But if that's what you want to base yourself off, here are how all of those seasons look with adjusted points:

Jagr 1996 - 144 adjusted points, 111 primary
Ovechkin 2008 - 122 adjusted points, 101 primary
Draisaitl 2023 - 122 adjusted points, 112 primary
MacKinnon 2024 - 138 adjusted points, 101 primary
Kucherov 2024 - 140 adjusted points, 106 primary


So - going by absolutely nothing else then what you say is most important - adjusted points & primary points - the way you should be ranking these seasons is:

1/2 Kucherov 2024 & Jagr 1996 in some order
3. MacKinnon 2024
4. Draisaitl 2023
5. Ovechkin 2008

You've got a lot wrong here.

Draisaitl had 112 primary points in a season where scoring was 2.97 GAA.
That equates to 98 primary points relative to the season where Ovie had 101. And Draisaitl was playing with McDavid.

1996 was 3.04 GAA. That equates to 95 primary points for Jagr in 1996 relative to 2008. Jagr was playing with Mario Lemieux.

 

[Regal]

While I did go with Ovechkin here, I still find using adjusted stats based on GPG from that season slightly off. There’s been talk about how VsX should use more than one season since the competition can change year to year and often scoring doesn’t change that much, and it’s a fair point. Scoring decreased from ‘06 to ‘07 to ‘08, but then the top scorers stayed pretty steady until ‘10, yet ‘08 was a bigger dip in league wide GPG. I have to think those overall scoring environments are closer to the reality of the scoring environment than just the league GPG in ‘08.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Considering this is about offense only - I'm not sure how much Ovechkin's hitting should be taken into account. We aren't taking defense or other things into account, these polls are about just offense.

If what you care about is primary points:

Ovechkin 2008 - 101
Jagr 1996 - 111
Kucherov 2024 - 106
MacKinnon 2024 - 101
Draisaitl 2023 - 112

As for adjusted stats - looking at HR's method as the end all be all definitely has shortcomings. But if that's what you want to base yourself off, here are how all of those seasons look with adjusted points:

Jagr 1996 - 144 adjusted points, 111 primary
Ovechkin 2008 - 122 adjusted points, 101 primary
Draisaitl 2023 - 122 adjusted points, 112 primary
MacKinnon 2024 - 138 adjusted points, 101 primary
Kucherov 2024 - 140 adjusted points, 106 primary


So - going by absolutely nothing else then what you say is most important - adjusted points & primary points - the way you should be ranking these seasons is:

1/2 Kucherov 2024 & Jagr 1996 in some order
3. MacKinnon 2024
4. Draisaitl 2023
5. Ovechkin 2008

Let's keep going with this since you apparently don't know that "adjusted" means to actually adjust.

MacKinnon's 2024 season "adjusts" to 91 primary points. MacKinnon was playing on a recent cup winner.

Kucherov's 2024 season "adjusts" to 95 primary points. Kucherov was playing on a recent two time cup winner.

 

[Midnight Judges]

While I did go with Ovechkin here, I still find using adjusted stats based on GPG from that season slightly off. There’s been talk about how VsX should use more than one season since the competition can change year to year and often scoring doesn’t change that much, and it’s a fair point. Scoring decreased from ‘06 to ‘07 to ‘08, but then the top scorers stayed pretty steady until ‘10, yet ‘08 was a bigger dip in league wide GPG. I have to think those overall scoring environments are closer to the reality of the scoring environment than just the league GPG in ‘08.

I dunno man. It seems to me the league-wide data is likely to be more reliable than what a handful of top players are doing or not doing. That handful of players can be quite volatile just based on a few injuries.

I'm not really seeing what you're saying anyway. The top points were, successively, 125, 120, 112, 113, 112, 104. How is that steady? It went down similarly (but not perfectly) to how league wide scoring went.

 

[bobholly39]

You've got a lot wrong here.

Draisaitl had 112 primary points in a season where scoring was 2.97 GAA.
That equates to 98 primary points relative to the season where Ovie had 101. And Draisaitl was playing with McDavid.

1996 was 3.04 GAA. That equates to 95 primary points for Jagr in 1996 relative to 2008. Jagr was playing with Mario Lemieux.

Let's keep going with this since you apparently don't know that "adjusted" means to actually adjust.

MacKinnon's 2024 season "adjusts" to 91 primary points. McKinnon was playing on a recent cup winner.

Kucherov's 2024 season "adjusts" to 95 primary points. Kucherov was playing on a recent two time cup winner.

Cool. I'll take your word for the primary adjusted point calculations and assume you're right.

So according to you:

122 adjusted points and 101 primary points is better than:

144 adjusted points/95 primary points or 140 adjusted points/95 primary points.

So I guess simple math stats - you believe that 6 primary points is a bigger deal than 22 (or, 18) adjusted points. So the value of a goal is over 3x that of a primary assist?

Using your consistent logic - care to explain why Brett Hull 1991 didn't get your vote then? Or as someone else pointed out - why you didn't vote McDavid 2023 above Ovechkin 2008?

Your posts would make a lot more sense if you simply said "Ovechkin is my favorite player and so I'm voting for him".

 

[GRob83]

Ovechkin had a 13 goal lead over 2nd place in 08. He gets my vote.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Cool. I'll take your word for the primary adjusted point calculations and assume you're right.

So according to you:

122 adjusted points and 101 primary points is better than:

144 adjusted points/95 primary points or 140 adjusted points/95 primary points.

So I guess simple math stats - you believe that 6 primary points is a bigger deal than 22 (or, 18) adjusted points. So the value of a goal is over 3x that of a primary assist?

Using your consistent logic - care to explain why Brett Hull 1991 didn't get your vote then? Or as someone else pointed out - why you didn't vote McDavid 2023 above Ovechkin 2008?

Your posts would make a lot more sense if you simply said "Ovechkin is my favorite player and so I'm voting for him".

You are again struggling with basic math here.

There is nothing in anything I've said to suggest a goal is worth 3x a primary assist.

The primary point metric specifically equates goals and primary assists in terms of value while tossing out arbitrary secondary assists (for good reason).

IMO McDavid's 2023 season is every clearly better than Ovechkin's 2008 season.

For Brett Hull, this should have been obvious by the time you made this latest post: Scoring in 1991 was 3.35 GAA. Hull had 111 primary points. That equates to 86 primary points in 2008. Hull had a better supporting cast than Ovie.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

You are again struggling with basic math here.

There is nothing in anything I've said to suggest a goal is worth 3x a primary assist.

The primary point metric specifically equates goals and primary assists in terms of value while tossing out arbitrary secondary assists (for good reason).

IMO McDavid's 2023 season is every clearly better than Ovechkin's 2008 season.

For Brett Hull, this should have been obvious by the time you made this latest post: Scoring in 1991 was 3.35 GAA. Hull had 111 primary points. That equates to 86 primary points in 2008. Hull had a better supporting cast than Ovie.

All of your math seems to be based on the assumption that the league average scoring rate is based solely on "how difficult it is to score", which is a pretty big assumption. Looking at the names at the top of the scoring lists in each of those years, I'm not at all surprised that the 1991 guys put up more points in a season. Gretzky had 163 points. Is that because it was so easy to score, or because he's Wayne Gretzky? Which of the guys who put up 100 points that season only did so because it was so easy to score? Was it Yzerman? Recchi? Sakic? Fleury? Oates? MacInnis?

 

[DitchMarner]

Supporting cast definitely does matter. It was a big reason why Yzerman's 1989 went ahead of Esposito's 1971. I would say that MacKinnon and Kucherov (and Jagr '96) definitely had more to work with than Ovechkin in '08. How one wants to weight level of help against relative adjusted output is of course subjective.

 

[Coffees]

Yeah - that's 1985, not 1984.

In 1984 (ie 83-84), Kurri only played 64 games, with 52 goals and 113 points. A good season, but doesn't belong on this list. I assume OP meant to list 85 & 86 for Kurri.

I still don't think Kurri 1984-1985 season is the next one that should be voted in, but at least that's a much stronger season for him.

come on bobholly, the dude had like goal per game during those playoffs and yeah it was 85, my bad

 

[Regal]

You are again struggling with basic math here.

There is nothing in anything I've said to suggest a goal is worth 3x a primary assist.

The primary point metric specifically equates goals and primary assists in terms of value while tossing out arbitrary secondary assists (for good reason).

IMO McDavid's 2023 season is every clearly better than Ovechkin's 2008 season.

For Brett Hull, this should have been obvious by the time you made this latest post: Scoring in 1991 was 3.35 GAA. Hull had 111 primary points. That equates to 86 primary points in 2008. Hull had a better supporting cast than Ovie.

Secondary assists are worth less but they’re not arbitrary, and the math surrounding that is pretty poor.

 

[Regal]

I dunno man. It seems to me the league-wide data is likely to be more reliable than what a handful of top players are doing or not doing. That handful of players can be quite volatile just based on a few injuries.

I'm not really seeing what you're saying anyway. The top points were, successively, 125, 120, 112, 113, 112, 104. How is that steady? It went down similarly (but not perfectly) to how league wide scoring went.

I’m not talking about the handful of top players though. I’m talking about the scoring leaders pages being pretty similar as we go through all top liners. One or two guys aren’t changing the top 50, top 60 scorers and so forth. I think league wide scoring can be just as volatile. An extra goal every 7 or 8 games isn’t a huge difference. Scoring did go down from ‘06 to ‘07 to ‘08 which I mentioned, but it was pretty steady over the three years of Ovechkin’s peak. The scoring lists for ‘08, ‘09 and ‘10 are all pretty similar, despite scoring going from 2.72 to 2.85 to 2.77. I don’t think it’s a huge difference but I think it’s likely his numbers should be adjusted more in the high 2.70s

 

[Midnight Judges]

Secondary assists are worth less but they’re not arbitrary, and the math surrounding that is pretty poor.

They are much more arbitrary than primary assists or goals and we can show this a number of ways, using good data.

1. They're much more dependent on teammates than primary assists or goals, and they don't transition across teams or year over year to the extent that primary assists or goals do when a player changes teams:

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/just-how-meaningful-is-the-second-assist/36545

2. They aren't counted consistently across arenas:

Some NHL Stars Get More Assists At Home Than They Deserve

Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby is one of the most talented players in the National Hockey League. But sometimes, he also gets lucky. This clip comes f…

fivethirtyeight.com

3. They are much more likely to be mundane perimeter passes, especially on the PP.
4. The goal scorer is not awarded a secondary assist even if he delivered the puck to the primary assist player. Admittedly, this is not a large percentage.

 

[amnesiac]

Kuch 24

add Iginla 02.... Art Ross winner with only 52G 96P but at a 5.24 GPG avg playing with Craig Conroy (peak DPE)

won the Rocket by 11 goals too