Post-Game Talk: Below average goaltending + below average finishing + below average defense = ugly losses

[alphahelix]

To answer your question of how many of Bouchard’s goals results in goals against- that is also measured- and sits right in the middle of the pack amongst d men. What we know- Bouchard handles the puck a lot. Of his possessions, only 11% are turnovers- 6th best amongst all d men. Of those turnovers- he sits middle of the pack in them resulting in goals against. He also posts elite numbers in high danger chances for % (percentage of for and against), scoring chances for, Goals For.

He is 2nd in the league in turnovers in actual count (he handles the puck more than anyone else). You know who is right behind him? MacKinnon, Makar, Karlsson, Hughes, Werenski.

Bouchard just turned 25. He broke the playoff scoring record at the age of 24. If the Oilers won- he was in the conn Smyth conversation. If you trade him, Oilers will be looking for a “Bouchard” type player for the next 15 years

I dont think Bouchard is the worst or only offender by any means. We have lots of guys that do it, Bouchard just has a tendency to look absent minded and lazy at times. We need less chaos in our own zone and you can build that one brick at a time. A Carlo might have helped. The right side lacks a defensive stalwart to settle things down.

 

[CrazyJoeDavola]

Hell, I was praising him hard after the Dallas series, and it was definitely the most positive I've ever been on this board.

I mean we should all give players credit for playing well when they do, but just a glance at the aforementioned person's recent history shows praise for Skinner wherever possible and every attempt to deflect blame whenever possible. So yeah, it's good for a chuckle that he's the one to ask where Stu's apologists are...

Stuart Skinner is the Brock Purdy of the NHL. Incapable of winning a game for his team. A complete product of the rest of this teammates and can fit into a system where everything around him is playing well and on point, but has no ability to carry a team in any regard, or have many individual moments himself.

 

[brentashton]

I have never PMed you. I know it's hard keeping up with the amount of people who ridicule you...

You were cancelled for being an innocent bystander.

 

[Zguy370]

Stuart Skinner is the Brock Purdy of the NHL. Incapable of winning a game for his team. A complete product of the rest of this teammates and can fit into a system where everything around him is playing well and on point, but has no ability to carry a team in any regard, or have many individual moments himself.

Pretty well, he can't stop a wet fart let alone an average NHL shot

 

[Pip]

The PP is humming along at ~36% since Feb 1st. It’s basically the only thing that’s actually firing. I get people are frustrated by the fact they didn’t score a key one last night in the 3rd. But not sure it makes the most sense to change up a PP that’s scoring on 1 of every 3 chances.

I think seeing a different look would be nice before getting into playoffs in case changes are needed. RNH in years past played a critical role in connecting plays and could actually score from his spot if given the time and space. More often than not I’ve seen him as the weak link this year.

This year is also different not only because Nuge’s game has really fallen off, but the team also has a bunch of guys that spent the majority of their careers on the top unit powerplays.

However in the playoffs I think I’d prefer to see 2 units that both feature McDavid and Draisaitl.

Have your normal RNH/Hyman/Bouchard trio but have them swap off a combination of Perry/Skinner/Walman or even someone like Henrique.

 

[Dieseloil]

A Vancouver fan I know way back in 1990 put a hex on the Oilers, proclaiming that they would never win another cup. I see his team hasn’t either and I remind him often.

 

[Dieseloil]

Earth to Nuge you copy. Really disappointed in him and Hyman, mostly him. Lacklustre and going through the motions. Where is Sean Monahan’s face when you need it?

 

[oobga]

Earth to Nuge you copy. Really disappointed in him and Hyman, mostly him. Lacklustre and going through the motions. Where is Sean Monahan’s face when you need it?

Nuge is just Nuge'ing. 1 gear, slowly wearing down. Waiting for PP's to look like he can make plays, although this year still giving it away at an insane rate even with the extra space on the PP.

 

[russ99]

Bouchard salvageable? Ridiculous. Guy is already elite. He is 25. Even in a down here his numbers are amongst the best in the league

I’m not talking about numbers, I’m talking about the pea sized amount of hockey sense when the puck is going in our end.

—-

I’m super annoyed with Knoblauch after his comments about yesterday’s game.

About poor defense and “if players aren’t contributing offense they should at least contribute on defense.”

That’s why we’re here right now, two sets of rules for different players, and why doesn’t it surprise me that the coach is parroting our core during their losing streaks with their devotion to plus/minus, be it goals or shots.

Inmates are running the asylum.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Nuge is just Nuge'ing. 1 gear, slowly wearing down. Waiting for PP's to look like he can make plays, although this year still giving it away at an insane rate even with the extra space on the PP.

Problem is he's not even making plays on the PP anymore.

 

[BlackDogg]

Does he have a better goalie in that closet.

Can we smuggle some into Skinner’s water bottle? I’m not asking for it to enhance his performance, the Oilers need him to go away for 20 games.

Skinner's asking Performance diminishing drugs.

 

[McHelpus]

"As a goalie I know the value of precision. Every move, every save, it's all about being at the top of my game."

 

[M Ace]

Are we really advocating for another coaching change when it’s clear some of the personnel aren’t playing the way they were last year?

No that is drastic, but I think som heads must be rolling; Stu Skinner, Brown, Janmark, Henrique, Arvidsson, Pdz & Kapanen must sit in the pressbox for a couple of games.
Recall Rodrigue, Savoie, Hamblin, Philp, Griffith, Pederson, Caggiula & Wright. They can't be much worse.....

 

[MessierThanThou]

Can't blame the guy. Gretzky and Messier didn't have to carry the team every night. The supporting cast and the goaltending was strong.

Glen Sather was just as valuable to the dynasty as Gretzky and Messier.

 

[MoontoScott]

Glen Sather was just as valuable to the dynasty as Gretzky and Messier.

Sure was--because he never took excuses from anybody. Play well or sit on the bench.

 

[McDNicks17]

I’m not talking about numbers, I’m talking about the pea sized amount of hockey sense when the puck is going in our end.

—-

I’m super annoyed with Knoblauch after his comments about yesterday’s game.

About poor defense and “if players aren’t contributing offense they should at least contribute on defense.”

That’s why we’re here right now, two sets of rules for different players, and why doesn’t it surprise me that the coach is parroting our core during their losing streaks with their devotion to plus/minus, be it goals or shots.

Inmates are running the asylum.

He isn't wrong though.

If you aren't producing offensively, you can at least be a non-factor by playing defense. Like Henrique can't piss a drop of offense, but at least he's been on the ice for as many goals for as goals against to go along with his two 5v5 points in the last 13 games.

Then you've got McDavid who is -14 at 5v5 to go along with three 5v5 points in those 13 games. That's the type of stat line that is murdering the team.

If the guys are at least contributing with offense or defense, Leon can probably carry them to a win.

 

[K1984]

Even if Bowman liked our goalies, that's fine with me, even though I disagree sharply. Just like with Cooper in the 4 nations, he made a choice to stick with Binnington even though everyone said he should switch. The criticism was very intense.

However, what I don't like is that we aren't talking about a difficult move. Why on earth would Bowman not want an insurance policy in net? At least Cooper had a choice to make.

We have cap space. We could have brought in a cheaper option. If you care about the position you could have a whole dossier of candidates who are smart gambles, at low cost even

What if Skinner gets injured? Bowman did a great job overloading the defense and forward position with options and injury insurance. I love that he did that. But no 3rd goalie? Why?

If Skinner was among the hottest goalies in the NHL it still doesn't make sense that they didn't get another goalie. There is no possible justification for it.

 

[oobga]

View attachment 992041
"As a goalie I know the value of precision. Every move, every save, it's all about being at the top of my game."

Every time I listen to that ad, I just sit in disbelief about what he is saying in it.

 

[McDNicks17]

Every time I listen to that ad, I just sit in disbelief about what he is saying in it.

It's like if someone had an ad where RNH talked about giving 100% and playing physical.

 

[oobga]

He isn't wrong though.

If you aren't producing offensively, you can at least be a non-factor by playing defense. Like Henrique can't piss a drop of offense, but at least he's been on the ice for as many goals for as goals against to go along with his two 5v5 points in the last 13 games.

Then you've got McDavid who is -14 at 5v5 to go along with three 5v5 points in those 13 games. That's the type of stat line that is murdering the team.

If the guys are at least contributing with offense or defense, Leon can probably carry them to a win.

This is probably one of our worst passenger years in a while. How consistently it's happen too. If Drai wasn't having maybe his most dominant season ever we would be begging for a wildcard spot right now.

Know it is goofy to say "if your best player(s) played average or bad our team would be worse". No kidding. But Drai just signed his retirement contract already. Lots of guys tail off after that. We are extremely fortunate this year that maybe the only guy (aside from Perry) that is exceeding expectations this year is the one guy that doesn't have to worry about signing another contract for almost a decade.

 

[CrazyJoeDavola]

Problem is he's not even making plays on the PP anymore.

He never made plays when he had that big season. Well, a few, but the majority were 2nd assists hiding in the shadows while mcdrai did anything. Most overrated backpacked player in the league. Can we just punt him to 4C for the rest of his career? He's pretty much manny malhotra at this point (without the faceoff acumen)

 

[bucks_oil]

With this level of goaltending, this level of results is about the roof (100-103 points maybe, 2nd or 3rd in a division ... maybe ... 2nd round exit if you have a tougher playoff bracket, maybe further if you get fortunate and get a more favorable bracket without facing more of the top forwards in the game so you can hide your goaltending more).

Like explain to me why you think they really should have much better results than where they are today as a team?

This is what the team is, and the wild ups and downs in the regular seasons have mostly been there all along, why was it supposed to be different this year? If Jeff Skinner and Arvidsson had been great roster adds OK, I can see expecting more, but they have been poor adds, so that just leaves you back at square one.

I think this is right... our team is right about where we should have expected it to be IF the few key additions we made this summer DIDN'T work out. And clearly they haven't.

I hate to already be looking to next year, but if something doesn't change, we haven't added the offense we needed to overcome that 2-1 lock-down style loss that we painfully experienced in SCF game 7.

I'm obviously simplifying here, but there were two ways to have won that cup last year:
1) Acquire a current Vezina level goalie, then we might have beat the aging Vezina level goalie in net.
2) Acquire more offensive depth so that that 2-1 loss becomes a 3-2 win.

Now obviously we didn't do #1, we invested heavily (given losses of Broberg & Holloway) in #2. And those investments, coupled with our aging core HAVE NOT DELIVERED.

I think that is the frustration with goalie-defenders like myself (yes, he absolutely lost us last game)... it's that WE EXPECTED SKINNER TO BE MEDIOCRE AT BEST. Why are we solely railing on the guy who's playing EXACTLY LIKE WE ALL EXPECTED and where we DIDN'T INVEST TO IMPROVE OUR TEAM.

Meanwhile, the INVESTMENTS we made (J. Skinner, Arvidsson) have been underutilized or are UNDERPERFORMING.

It feels to me like the absolute definition of insanity... like seriously, what did all of you goalie-blamers expect?

 

[TB12]

I think this is right... our team is right about where we should have expected it to be IF the few key additions we made this summer DIDN'T work out. And clearly they haven't.

I hate to already be looking to next year, but if something doesn't change, we haven't added the offense we needed to overcome that 2-1 lock-down style loss that we painfully experienced in SCF game 7.

I'm obviously simplifying here, but there were two ways to have won that cup last year:
1) Acquire a current Vezina level goalie, then we might have beat the aging Vezina level goalie in net.
2) Acquire more offensive depth so that that 2-1 loss becomes a 3-2 win.

Now obviously we didn't do #1, we invested heavily (given losses of Broberg & Holloway) in #2. And those investments, coupled with our aging core HAVE NOT DELIVERED.

I think that is the frustration with goalie-defenders like myself (yes, he absolutely lost us last game)... it's that WE EXPECTED SKINNER TO BE MEDIOCRE AT BEST. Why are we solely railing on the guy who's playing EXACTLY LIKE WE ALL EXPECTED and where we DIDN'T INVEST TO IMPROVE OUR TEAM.

Meanwhile, the INVESTMENTS we made (J. Skinner, Arvidsson) have been underutilized or are UNDERPERFORMING.

It feels to me like the absolute definition of insanity... like seriously, what did all of you goalie-blamers expect?

Well, I mean, better than being 75th in goals saved above expected for one. He's not just playing average or poor, he is f***ING AWFUL this season. Big gap between being mediocre and absolutely unplayable, with the movement of a walrus in net.

 

[K1984]

He isn't wrong though.

If you aren't producing offensively, you can at least be a non-factor by playing defense. Like Henrique can't piss a drop of offense, but at least he's been on the ice for as many goals for as goals against to go along with his two 5v5 points in the last 13 games.

Then you've got McDavid who is -14 at 5v5 to go along with three 5v5 points in those 13 games. That's the type of stat line that is murdering the team.

If the guys are at least contributing with offense or defense, Leon can probably carry them to a win.

A lot of the focus is on McDavid's lack of 5v5 production (rightfully so), but I think their bigger issue is his defensive play as you point out.

To put it frankly, he's a chicken with his head cut off in his own end. A massive puck chaser, and teams are turnstiling him when he constantly over pursues. Did it on the 2nd goal last game, chased the puck carrier to the wall for no reason as the puck gets passed around him and his guy walks down Main Street. Next time the top line is getting hemmed, just watch him. He's running around, guessing and hoping.

If he were playing better in his own end and still not scoring it would be an inconvenience rather than a major problem. It is very, very difficult to win if your top line and top player is getting caved like this. Doesn't matter who you are.

 

[bucks_oil]

Well, I mean, better than being 75th in goals saved above expected for one. He's not just playing average or poor, he is f***ING AWFUL this season. Big gap between being mediocre and absolutely unplayable, with the movement of a walrus in net.

I do love that Walrus commercial.

We don't need GSAA to tell us Skinner has been having a rough season. Trained eye-test and standard SPCT will do just fine.

I also do not believe in GSAA as a legit stat, at least not yet. In fact I think it is WORSE than standard SPCT. There's a great thread on it (with a good example in the OP) on the mains right now... go check it out.

It's based on xG, which currently (all the public models) do not account for east-west pass prior to a shot. Think about what that means as it comes to goaltending.

It means it can't distinguish between a Draisaitl power play one-timer and Connor Brown failing to beat a defender, getting pushed wide and shooting from that same bad angle. Those would carry the same xGA.

It can't distinguish between McD setting up a Zach Hyman cross-crease tap in versus Janmark jamming at a loose puck when the goalie is already there, square and down in butterfly. Again, same xGA.

GSAA would absolutely pulverize a goalie who plays on a very good possession team where 30% of their shots on a given night are off 2-1s or breakaways... and would reward a goalie who plays on a structured defensive system that boxes out and clears rebounds.

It's just NOT a useful stat. It doesn't yet factor in the variables that TRULY make a difference between savable vs unsavable shots. I don't know any actual goalies who understand the limitations of the model and still think it's useful.

Remember @oilerbear ... I hope he's ok, haven't seen him in a while... but he used to talk about "open" vs "closed" shot theory, which if you understood his rants was essentially a shot that comes when a goalie is still on the move, vs one that comes when the goalie is square and already set... night and day different outcomes. That's the type of model we need.