Post-Game Talk: Below average goaltending + below average finishing + below average defense = ugly losses

[foshizzle]

Except for the fact that everybody is blowing by Bouchard.......

Weird how the actual real data shows they are not. Weird how the actual data shows that when Bouchard is on the ice- his team has possession and generates more shots, more higher danger chances, and more goals than they allow. I don’t know- do you win games if you score more and prevent goals from being scored?

Like I said- you have a bias with zero supporting evidence.

 

[Soundwave]

No I know you're not pro-management.

But I'm curious when you say the bolded. There's numerous scoring droughts by forwards not named McDavid or Draisatl. Virtually the entire forward corps has regressed. RNH has fallen off the map. Added to this is the outgoing forwards who are all having good seasons elsewhere. The forward corps isn't deep, it's extremely top heavy. We've swapped out useful young players for older ones who can't score for beans. Basically every roster addition up front has been passable at best and Kapanen at worst.

The defense is solid but top tier? Bouchard in particular has regressed terribly. Nurse had flashes of brilliance but is more or less the same guy he's always been. Ekholm seems to be going backwards which is alarming. Kulak is solid. Emberson is a warm body and little more. Hopefully Walman injects something more into the team.

The special teams are not great, and nowhere near where they were last year. In fact I'd say it's quite apparent that we rode an unsustainable wave of special teams to the Cup Final last year. Even the vaunted power play looks pretty pedestrian most games because most teams know exactly what our strategy is.

Obviously goaltending is an issue... But you're telling me this team could only put two past one of the worst defensive teams in the league? A team that had lost 6 in a row? The biggest joke in the NHL? Sorry, that to me is unacceptable. Beaten by the Flyers, Ducks, and Sabres within a matter of weeks, and very badly in the case of the former two.

I watch highlights from the playoffs frequently. That team was airtight. That team got the clutch scoring. That team bounced back from everything. This team... I don't see it. Everything is wrong. This feels like the Oilers of 5 years ago, where the entire gameplan was to hope McDavid and Draisatl put up numbers and that the rest of the roster would exist. Playoff heroes Janmark and Brown look completely toast. We're missing the likes of Broberg, Holloway, and yes even McLeod as they would at least chip in offensively and defensively.

Simply pointing to goaltending as the only problem is absolving the rest of the team for their major regression and inability to play the way they were last year.


People really need to take the rose coloured glasses off when it comes to Smith. He was absolute dogwater vs the Flames and Avs. The only saving grace was that Markstrom was worse.

The defensive system got a jolt last year from actual structure which compounded into the playoffs to being in sync to a really nice degree.

These things are all interconnected.

This year we needed Skinner to take a step forward and Bouchard to have an OK season at least, we haven't gotten that from either and as a result the belief in the system has waned.

As a management group you have to be more on top of these things, our management just lets things go on until there is a tune out.

 

[McAsuno]

Posted 6 days ago. It’s astounding that having .900 goaltending gives this team a huge difference in W/L record compared to shit that’s 6-18 with sub .900

Anybody still trying to defend the goaltending at this point are f***ing dumb. Simple.
It’s always been the shit goaltending this season being the Achilles heel of this team. Stu simps must be related to Jason Gregor

 

[Soundwave]

Weird how the actual real data shows they are not. Weird how the actual data shows that when Bouchard is on the ice- his team has possession and generates more shots, more higher danger chances, and more goals than they allow. I don’t know- do you win games if you score more and prevent goals from being scored?

Like I said- you have a bias with zero supporting evidence.

I mean are those numbers skewed though because he basically plays non-stop tied to McDavid and/or Draisaitl though?

He ain't exactly playing a whole lot with the Connor Brown's of the world, of course the ice is going to be tilted when McDavid or Drai are on.

The eye test shows a shit ton of lost battles, blown coverage, and killer turn overs from Bouchard this year.

To be honest I'm not too choked about it, because it's hurting his contract value, if he was having a lights out year, he'd be asking for 12 mill probably on his next contract.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The defensive system got a jolt last year from actual structure which compounded into the playoffs to being in sync to a really nice degree.

These things are all interconnected.

This year we needed Skinner to take a step forward and Bouchard to have an OK season at least, we haven't gotten that from either and as a result the belief in the system has waned.

As a management group you have to be more on top of these things, our management just lets things go on until there is a tune out.

No you don't understand. That interferes with their strategy to do the absolute bare minimum while they continue to hire friends and afterthoughts that no other team would hire.

Can't believe anyone was happy with Bowman's TDL when the other contenders of the Central loaded up.

 

[MessierThanThou]

I largely agree with you, but you're making my argument for me. If Skinner sucked when we were winning, isn't the blame then squarely on the group up front for dissolving into whatever this is now?

We can only control what we can control. When we were in command of our defensive game and in command of the puck and had key players playing at or near their level we won even with Skinner being arguably still shitty. We were 1st in the division and within 4 points of the President's Trophy. Just a month and a half ago. Same team, same shitty goalie, same season.

Is Skinner playing worse than then? I think so, but it's debatable. However, I don't think it's debatable that everyone else around him is even close to where their game was at not all that long ago.

No one here is saying McDavid and the team up front aren't playing poorly, nor are they free of blame for playing poorly (though I think it's worth moving on from Knoblauch ASAP). But you guys are, again, deflecting blame from Skinner when it has been abundantly clear since literally game one of the season that he is unreliable and poor at his job.

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I believe that you believe that the problem with the entire team is systemic and Skinner is merely a victim of that, as opposed to him being a weak link that, if solved, would improve the overall performance of this team, mistakes and all. If he can't make routine saves, then the team's problems up front become more obvious. Take away the two goals from last night, which 95% of the goalies in this league would stop, and we win. Now how often can you say that about Skinner this season? More than any of us would like to think about. If we had a league average netminder, we wouldn't need to score four goals a game to pull off that victory...or rely on McDrai to power us into OT.

 

[TheSuperElite]

it's just absolutely mind-blowing how disastrous Skinner is by every single possible metric there is. not just below-average, bad, really bad, but GOD f***ING AWFUL

 

[McAsuno]

it's just absolutely mind-blowing how disastrous Skinner is by every single possible metric there is. not just below-average, bad, really bad, but GOD f***ING AWFUL

It’s the teams fault for skinner underperforming all season long!

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

it's just absolutely mind-blowing how disastrous Skinner is by every single possible metric there is. not just below-average, bad, really bad, but GOD f***ING AWFUL

Reflects management well.

Bowman should be fired immediately.

 

[Oilslick941611]

Posted 6 days ago. It’s astounding that having .900 goaltending gives this team a huge difference in W/L record compared to shit that’s 6-18 with sub .900

Anybody still trying to defend the goaltending at this point are f***ing dumb. Simple.
It’s always been the shit goaltending this season being the Achilles heel of this team. Stu simps must be related to Jason Gregor

I’ve not seen anyone defend goaltending in weeks.

 

[K1984]

No one here is saying McDavid and the team up front aren't playing poorly, nor are they free of blame for playing poorly (though I think it's worth moving on from Knoblauch ASAP). But you guys are, again, deflecting blame from Skinner when it has been abundantly clear since literally game one of the season that he is unreliable and poor at his job.

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I believe that you believe that the problem with the entire team is systemic and Skinner is merely a victim of that, as opposed to him being a weak link that, if solved, would improve the overall performance of this team, mistakes and all. If he can't make routine saves, then the team's problems up front become more obvious. Take away the two goals from last night, which 95% of the goalies in this league would stop, and we win. Now how often can you say that about Skinner this season? More than any of us would like to think about. If we had a league average netminder, we wouldn't need to score four goals a game to pull off that victory...or rely on McDrai to power us into OT.

No Skinner deserves as much if not more blame than anyone. There are also far, far more people around here pretending that McDavid is playing fine, or worse, that he's justified to play shitty than there are defending Skinner. I don't think there is a single soul here defending Skinner anymore, but some are so far gone that any hint of criticism of the play in front of him is interpreted as absolving Skinner.

I'll take away the two bad GA's Skinner gave up if you give me 3 goals out the 4 posts we hit off of laughably wide open clean scoring looks (been a pervasive issue for weeks, just like the goaltending). Either would have individually won us the game even if the other side played identical to how they played last night. It's a multi pronged issue and highlighting one while dismissing the other is just wrong, no matter what side you choose.

 

[guymez]

First: I am known to be a goalie apologizer, but I am ON RECORD saying that goal #1 and goal #2 were both beer-league bad.



100% agree with this. I don't think it is actually happening on OUR team. I do feel like it is projection from certain fans on this site that never played at a high-enough level or for a good-enough coach to know that attitude is a complete LOSER mentality. It's just never, ever acceptable.




100% agree on this too and this is one I do worry about. We can't keep making the same structural errors defensively.

People talk (to your point above) about the "non-goalie" players having little confidence in their goalie, as though that's an excuse to mail-in the game, but it works both ways too.

Skinner's mistake on the 2nd (Tuch) goal last night might fall into this category... he's so used to that pass getting all the way across to the completely unmarked guy at the far post that he COMPLETELY overcompensates and pushes hard, sliding all the way over there... only to realize the pass was actually going to the (equally unmarked) guy in the slot.

That's the type of mental error that is just NOT ACCEPTABLE of Skinner. It's also the type of error (and this is NOT an excuse, but an observation) that can happen when guys don't trust each other to get the job done.

Did Skinner get his read wrong? Did he not see the guy in the slot? Did he think his D had that pass? Did he think, "oh here we go again, far side guy is completely uncovered"? It's impossible to know for sure... but it is a sign of a mental error occurring at least partially out of fatigue... just my opinion.

In the end, that goal looks TERRIBLE on Skinner, because it was... he got caught guessing on a pass, which just isn't acceptable. But there is a "why was he guessing", which would be interesting to know... I hope he's talking about it - that's how you improve.




100% on this too...

Though last night I do think was mostly on Skinner, just based on the magnitude of his MISTAKES on goal #1 and goal #2.

The one everyone is laughing and meme-ing about is the least of our worries honestly. The right move was a poke check, but the poke-check went horribly wrong and was followed by an ugly, but full-hearted "recovery" attempt. At least he didn't mis-read or give up on the play.

Great post.
I think that you have touched on a large part of why this team is so challeneging for a goalie (especially a young goalie) and also why they seem to burn through so many coaches. Its not a coaching issue....its a player issue.

Predicitablity in front of him is very important for a goalie and if he doesnt have that (because defensive assignements are consistently being blown...players unmarked...passing lanes wide open...etc) then its completely understandable why he starts to guess.
These issues you speak of seem to be entrenched into the fabric of this team and it starts with the core players IMO. This inability to prevent cross seam passes and reduce uncontested shots definitely causes the goalie to guess.
How can a goalie build his game and his confidence when he is forced to guess most of the time?
He cant.
If the team is going to throw all of its eggs into a young goalies basket then playing with defensive structure is not optional. The structure has to come first...before you point the finger at the goalie.
Not being able to maintain any semblence of consistent defensive structure for extended periords of time is not a recipe for meaningful success.
That (unstructured defence) seems to be the norm for this team...it appears to be its default.
The best we can hope for (it seems) is that a coach can temporarily flip the script for a period of time but then ultimately things seem to revert back to the norm.
History suggest thats when the coach gets fired. Good coaches too.

The core group must take responsibility...IMO it has to start there.

My hope all along has been about the lack of emotional intensity and how that may be a major cause in their sloppy play.
That being said...as each game passes, and the leadup to the playoffs gets shorter, I am becoming less and less convinced that this team will be able to actually lock things down in the playoffs.

 

[Soundwave]

No Skinner deserves as much if not more blame than anyone. There are also far, far more people around here pretending that McDavid is playing fine, or worse, that he's justified to play shitty than there are defending Skinner. I don't think there is a single soul here defending Skinner anymore, but some are so far gone that any hint of criticism of the play in front of him is interpreted as absolving Skinner.

I'll take away the two bad GA's Skinner gave up if you give me 3 goals out the 4 posts we hit off of laughably wide open clean scoring looks (been a pervasive issue for weeks, just like the goaltending). Both would have won us the game even if the other side played identical to how they played last night. It's a multi pronged issue and highlighting one while dismissing the other is just wrong, no matter what side you choose.

With this level of goaltending, this level of results is about the roof (100-103 points maybe, 2nd or 3rd in a division ... maybe ... 2nd round exit if you have a tougher playoff bracket, maybe further if you get fortunate and get a more favorable bracket without facing more of the top forwards in the game so you can hide your goaltending more).

Like explain to me why you think they really should have much better results than where they are today as a team?

This is what the team is, and the wild ups and downs in the regular seasons have mostly been there all along, why was it supposed to be different this year? If Jeff Skinner and Arvidsson had been great roster adds OK, I can see expecting more, but they have been poor adds, so that just leaves you back at square one.

 

[Aerrol]

 

[McAsuno]

I’ve not seen anyone defend goaltending in weeks.

That’s a flat out lie and @MessierThanThou would agree

 

[MessierThanThou]

I'll take away the two bad GA's Skinner gave up if you give me 3 goals out the 4 posts we hit off of laughably wide open clean scoring looks (been a pervasive issue for weeks, just like the goaltending). Either would have individually won us the game even if the other side played identical to how they played last night. It's a multi pronged issue and highlighting one while dismissing the other is just wrong, no matter what side you choose.

Except even with those posts, take away those two routine shots he let in, and, let me check my math...yup, we still win. It is a multi-pronged issue, sure, but one prong has been there longer and is sharper than the others (I wanted to say longer and thicker, but that sounded wrong.)

Also, @iCanada brings this up sometimes, but one possibility for the team's poor finishing could be related to the substandard goalies they practice on...

 

[K1984]

Except even with those posts, take away those two routine shots he let in, and, let me check my math...yup, we still win. It is a multi-pronged issue, sure, but one prong has been there longer and is sharper than the others (I wanted to say longer and thicker, but that sounded wrong.)

Also, @iCanada brings this up sometimes, but one possibility for the team's poor finishing could be related to the substandard goalies they practice on...

Strange this hasn't been an issue any of the other past many years with any of the array of shit goalies we've had here before. Skinner was between the pipes when we lead the league in goals.

The team can't finish because at the moment there is zero attention to detail in any aspect of what they are doing. Shooting into open nets is a detail. Not dusting off every puck in a shooting area is a detail. Not passing up opportunities is a detail. Not throwing grenades at both blue lines is a detail. Executing on simple passes is a detail. Working hard on the back check is a detail. Etc, etc.

I could have listed out a dozen others, but you get the gist. Finishing scoring looks is effort and detail related, we have neither.

 

[MessierThanThou]

That’s a flat out lie and @MessierThanThou would agree

I mean one look at his own recent posting history shows numerous posts like "great save, Stu" and "another save by Stu" and stuff like "Skinner is the least of our problems" and even a post saying "Colorado season saviour Blackwood currently rocking a 0.625sv%," which I can't imagine he would post for any other reason than to say we made the right call in avoiding Blackwood. But I guess he's right about himself in that he did not literally say, verbatim "Stu is a great goalie," so at least he has that going for him...

Strange this hasn't been an issue any of the other past many years with any of the array of shit goalies we've had here before. Skinner was between the pipes when we lead the league in goals.

The team can't finish because at the moment there is zero attention to detail in any aspect of what they are doing. Shooting into open nets is a detail. Not dusting off every puck in a shooting area is a detail. Not passing up opportunities is a detail. Not throwing grenades at both blue lines is a detail. Executing on simple passes is a detail. Working hard on the back check is a detail. Etc, etc.

I could have listed out a dozen others, but you get the gist. Finishing scoring looks is effort and detail related, we have neither.

Strange, it's like goalies can actually get worse season over season (over season). Strange, it's like Skinner isn't playing worse than most of the other starting goalies we've had in recent memory. Strange, it's like Skinner and Pickard aren't the worst goaltending tandem of any team in a playoff position and were at one point, and still may be, in the bottom third of all tandems in the league for GSAx.

So strange.

EDIT: I made a typo, meant to say our tandem was and still may in the bottom three of all tandems in the league for GSAx, as in one of the three worst tandems in the entire league for GSAx. Even my own subconscious doesn't want to believe our goaltending is that bad.

 

[K1984]

I mean one look at his own recent posting history shows numerous posts like "great save, Stu" and "another save by Stu" and stuff like "Skinner is the least of our problems" and even a post saying "Colorado season saviour Blackwood currently rocking a 0.625sv%," which I can't imagine he would post for any other reason than to say we made the right call in avoiding Blackwood. But I guess he's right about himself in that he did not literally say, verbatim "Stu is a great goalie," so at least he has that going for him...



Strange, it's like goalies can't get worse season over season (over season). Strange, it's like Skinner isn't playing worse than most of the other starting goalies we've had in recent memory. Strange, it isn't like Skinner and Pickard aren't the worst goaltending tandem of any team in a playoff position and was at one point, and still may be, in the bottom third of all tandems in the league for GSAx.

So strange.

Suggesting that the Oilers can't put the puck into wide, wide open nets because they practice on Skinner is by far the "strangest" suggestion out of anything I've seen in this thread, and there is a lot to pick from.

Skinner sucks. Not debating that. Blaming every single other issue on this team on him, including the team's inability to score into wide open nets, is frankly stupid.

 

[guymez]

Strange this hasn't been an issue any of the other past many years with any of the array of shit goalies we've had here before. Skinner was between the pipes when we lead the league in goals.

The team can't finish because at the moment there is zero attention to detail in any aspect of what they are doing. Shooting into open nets is a detail. Not dusting off every puck in a shooting area is a detail. Not passing up opportunities is a detail. Not throwing grenades at both blue lines is a detail. Executing on simple passes is a detail. Working hard on the back check is a detail. Etc, etc.

I could have listed out a dozen others, but you get the gist. Finishing scoring looks is effort and detail related, we have neither.

But apparently none of that can happen unless the goalie plays better.
Its as if the goalie playing better precedes structure and attention to detail on offence and on defence.

That line of thinking is totally ass backwards but yet here we are.

Maybe firing the coach will help.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Suggesting that the Oilers can't put the puck into wide, wide open nets because they practice on Skinner is by far the "strangest" suggestion out of anything I've seen in this thread, and there is a lot to pick from.

Skinner sucks. Not debating that. Blaming every single other issue on this team on him, including the team's inability to score into wide open nets, is frankly stupid.

Nobody is blaming every single issue on him. Nice try.

 

[Mr Positive]

Ive bashed Skinner a bit in this thread but I'll say he can be better. He will be better

 

[K1984]

Nobody is blaming every single issue on him. Nice try.

Blaming him for the inability for the team to score on open nets is an exercise in blaming every single thing on him. Sorry.

 

[Spawn]

Also, please change up the Powerplay.

Take RNH off the PP. Put Walman in Bouchard's spot and Bouchard in RNH's spot

The PP is humming along at ~36% since Feb 1st. It’s basically the only thing that’s actually firing. I get people are frustrated by the fact they didn’t score a key one last night in the 3rd. But not sure it makes the most sense to change up a PP that’s scoring on 1 of every 3 chances.

 

[MessierThanThou]

The PP is humming along at ~36% since Feb 1st. It’s basically the only thing that’s actually firing. I get people are frustrated by the fact they didn’t score a key one last night in the 3rd. But not sure it makes the most sense to change up a PP that’s scoring on 1 of every 3 chances.

But if there's a possibility we can make it even better by swapping out a guy who hasn't scored in 15 games for Jeff Skinner (who has even scored on the 2nd Unit...which almost never happens) or Jake Walman, isn't it worth at least a test run?