Post-Game Talk: Below average goaltending + below average finishing + below average defense = ugly losses

[bucks_oil]

First: I am known to be a goalie apologizer, but I am ON RECORD saying that goal #1 and goal #2 were both beer-league bad.

This team is destined to never win anything no matter what if the mentality truly is "why should I work hard because another part of the roster isn't what I want it to be" from the star players. Patently insane that people here are giving them that excuse and somehow think it's also justified.

100% agree with this. I don't think it is actually happening on OUR team. I do feel like it is projection from certain fans on this site that never played at a high-enough level or for a good-enough coach to know that attitude is a complete LOSER mentality. It's just never, ever acceptable.

The goalies suck, no doubt about that. That's not going to change, but there are plenty of things can be changed for the better that will improve our performance regardless of the goaltending. There appears to be little to no focus or commitment on getting better in these areas on an individual or team level.

100% agree on this too and this is one I do worry about. We can't keep making the same structural errors defensively.

People talk (to your point above) about the "non-goalie" players having little confidence in their goalie, as though that's an excuse to mail-in the game, but it works both ways too.

Skinner's mistake on the 2nd (Tuch) goal last night might fall into this category... he's so used to that pass getting all the way across to the completely unmarked guy at the far post that he COMPLETELY overcompensates and pushes hard, sliding all the way over there... only to realize the pass was actually going to the (equally unmarked) guy in the slot.

That's the type of mental error that is just NOT ACCEPTABLE of Skinner. It's also the type of error (and this is NOT an excuse, but an observation) that can happen when guys don't trust each other to get the job done.

Did Skinner get his read wrong? Did he not see the guy in the slot? Did he think his D had that pass? Did he think, "oh here we go again, far side guy is completely uncovered"? It's impossible to know for sure... but it is a sign of a mental error occurring at least partially out of fatigue... just my opinion.

In the end, that goal looks TERRIBLE on Skinner, because it was... he got caught guessing on a pass, which just isn't acceptable. But there is a "why was he guessing", which would be interesting to know... I hope he's talking about it - that's how you improve.

Someone that hasn't been watching this team lately might look at a lot of the commentary here and conclude that the Oilers must be cooking, but are losing only because of the goalie. Couldn't possibly be any further from the truth.

100% on this too...

Though last night I do think was mostly on Skinner, just based on the magnitude of his MISTAKES on goal #1 and goal #2.

The one everyone is laughing and meme-ing about is the least of our worries honestly. The right move was a poke check, but the poke-check went horribly wrong and was followed by an ugly, but full-hearted "recovery" attempt. At least he didn't mis-read or give up on the play.

 

[K1984]

"On an island" ... lol ... yeah an island with Makar (best d-man in the game), Toews/Manson, Nichushkin, etc.

Boo hoo how terrible for MacK to have to play on a team only about as good as what McDavid/Drai have only recently gotten in their careers.

Colorado has 1 whopping playoff round win (to a team we beat) to show for when they have more normalized "Oiler like" rosters. And they lost to a Seattle team in round 1 that's probably the worst playoff team in the last 10 years.

If you want to trade that for the results the Oilers have had the last two years, be my guest.

Manson. Lol. Nichushkin spent the first half of the season in rehab, try again.

I'd trade their overall compete level and execution with the Oilers in a second. Wouldn't think twice. That's for players at the top and bottom of the roster.

 

[MessierThanThou]

TLDR; one group of people chooses to simply ignore the blatantly obvious fact that this team isn't playing anywhere near what they're capable of across the board, and somehow pin all the blame for it on the shitty goalie while projecting anyone that calls out the team's poor play as a Skinner "apologist" while brushing everything else aside.

Funny thing is, when the team was losing winnable games due to Skinner, or having to crawl out of the hole he put them and win games in OT, and for much of the season every metric suggested that the problem wasn't actually with the defense but Skinner himself... you guys were still defending him. A lot of you are now claiming the stats are wrong because they disagree with your narrative. You guys have consistently thrown our best players under the bus to defend one of the worst starters in the entire league, with a lot of you even believing that McDavid not scoring in Game 7 had more to do with the team losing than Skinner letting in a bad goal that would be a routine save for 95% of the goalies in the league.

Now that most of the team is playing like shit, you have an easier time deflecting blame. Sadly, despite McDavid going to sleep, the scoring totally drying up, and the D making more mistakes, Skinner still remains their biggest liability, as anyone with two eyes and the slightest bit of critical thought witnessed last night.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

"On an island" ... lol ... yeah an island with Makar (best d-man in the game), Toews/Manson, Nichushkin, etc.

Boo hoo how terrible for MacK to have to play on a team only about as good as what McDavid/Drai have only recently gotten in their careers.

Colorado has 1 whopping playoff round win (to a team we beat) to show for when they have more normalized "Oiler like" rosters. And they lost to a Seattle team in round 1 that's probably the worst playoff team in the last 10 years.

If you want to trade that for the results the Oilers have had the last two years, be my guest.

other than an unhinged rant, what exactly is your point here?

 

[K1984]

Funny thing is, when the team was losing winnable games due to Skinner, or having to crawl out of the hole he put them and win games in OT, and for much of the season every metric suggested that the problem wasn't actually with the defense but Skinner himself... you guys were still defending him. A lot of you are now claiming the stats are wrong because they disagree with your narrative. You guys have consistently thrown our best players under the bus to defend one of the worst starters in the entire league, with a lot of you even believing that McDavid not scoring in Game 7 had more to do with the team losing than Skinner letting in a bad goal that would be a routine save for 95% of the goalies in the league.

Now that most of the team is playing like shit, you have an easier time deflecting blame. Sadly, despite McDavid going to sleep and the scoring totally drying up, Skinner still remains their biggest liability, as anyone with two eyes and the slightest bit of critical thought witnessed last night.

You don't need to project, I haven't said any of those things. Also the bolded wasn't a thing for months of this season.

It might be hard to grasp, but both the team AND Skinner played pretty well on the whole between November - mid January. Remember when a common refrain around here was that we didn't really need to do a lot other than 4C and maybe D depth because we had so many players playing so well up front? That was just this year. Same team. Same roster.

The difference? McDavid wasn't playing like complete shit, the team was executing a team defensive structure very well (think that 1-0 shutdown game agains the Kings is possible how we're playing now?), the team was getting enough saves, and special teams was clicking. None of this is occurring now, and Skinner only has to do with one of the items on the list.

 

[FlameChampion]

View attachment 991230

Textbook.

Reminds me of how Smith would just fall frontwards at the end of his career. Only difference is that Smith was 39 and Skinner is 25.

 

[Soundwave]

2nd or 3rd place finish in the division for sub .900 is pretty good actually, taking off the stupid "yea but we have McDavid! So I get to pretend the team is an auto Cup lock!" mentality.

I've looked at the last 20+ years of Pacific Division, no one has won the division with sub .900 goaltending.

Given the fact that this team is dealing with a post-Finals fatigue AND has sub .900 goaltending (no real starter) AND is handicapped by one of the dumbest management groups in the league (had a terrible summer where they lost 2 useful players for basically peanuts and then added 3 players that are declining or poor fits due to bad scouting and judgement) ... they are kinda where they should be.

It's disappointing in the sense "yeah but we were in a Cup Finals so we should be over this kind of stuff and it should just be smooth sailing forever!" mindset, but realistically if you consider the handicaps put on the team, the results are in line with what they should be.

 

[K1984]

2nd or 3rd place finish in the division for sub .900 is pretty good actually, taking off the stupid "yea but we have McDavid! So I get to pretend the team is an auto Cup lock!" mentality.

I've looked at the last 20+ years of Pacific Division, no one has won the division with sub .900 goaltending.

Given the fact that this team is dealing with a post-Finals fatigue AND has sub .900 goaltending (no real starter) AND is handicapped by one of the dumbest management groups in the league (had a terrible summer where they lost 2 useful players for basically peanuts and then added 3 players that are declining or poor fits due to bad scouting and judgement) ... they are kinda where they should be.

Again, you're the only one talking about the Division. You wasted your time looking back at the last 20 years. You're arguing against yourself at a random goal post move attempt you made pages ago.

 

[KlefDown]

its quite insane to me how people can look at stuart skinner and look at his body of work in the NHL and be like hell yeah that the starting goaltender for my favorite stanley cup contending team. he's quite literally the worst starting goaltender in the NHL and by far the worst starting goaltender of any playoff team


we've had wrecks like Koskinen and Smith be our starters in the McDrai era and even they were infinitely better than whatever Skinner is doing

 

[Soundwave]

Again, you're the only one talking about the Division. You wasted your time looking back at the last 20 years. You're arguing against yourself at a random goal post move attempt you made pages ago.

They are 4 points out of the division lead. If anything given the actual realities of the roster and how bad the management is, they are probably over achieving in some ways.

The sky high expectations on the team were always predicated on Skinner actually f***ing learning something from last year and in the playoffs and becoming a more stable no.1 starter (didn't happen) and at least one of Skinner/Arvidsson fitting in well as a 25+ goal scorer (nope), and Henrique not declining (nope).

Given how all of those things have broken the wrong direction for the team and then factor in losing Holloway and Broberg for basically nothing and then factor in some fatigue from a lot of hockey being played by this team the last 2-3 years and then factor in no Evander Kane for the regular season ... well like what should this team be at this point? 85 points by now? I don't think those expectations are realistic given actual reality and not fantasy.

 

[K1984]

They are 4 points out of the division lead. If anything given the actual realities of the roster and how bad the management is, they are probably over achieving in some ways.

The sky high expectations on the team were always predicated on Skinner actually f***ing learning something from last year and in the playoffs and becoming a more stable no.1 starter (didn't happen) and at least one of Skinner/Arvidsson fitting in well as a 25+ goal scorer (nope), and Henrique not declining (nope).

Given how all of those things have broken the wrong direction for the team and then factor in losing Holloway and Broberg for basically nothing ... well like what should this team be at this point? 85 points by now? I don't think those expectations are realistic given actual reality and not fantasy.

Just talking about how the team is performing up front, not talking about standings.

 

[Soundwave]

Just talking about how the team is performing up front, not talking about standings.

Why should they be way better up front?

Was Hyman supposed to score 50+ goals every year? That was obviously an outlier year.

They lost effectively Holloway, Kane, Foegele, McLeod upfront and replaced them with Skinner, Podkolzin, and Arvidsson, none of whom have been a good fit offensively. Jury is out on Frederic since who even knows how many games we'll get out of him. Savoie is having a good year in the AHL, but he's not ready to be a full time top 6er right now.

RNH, Brown, Janmark are all on the wrong side of 30 ... are their numbers supposed to be going up?

Given the management induced roster handicaps this team has, they are performing about where they should be.

You guys just gloss over this shit and say "yeah but gimme TOP RESULTS!".

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

its quite insane to me how people can look at stuart skinner and look at his body of work in the NHL and be like hell yeah that the starting goaltender for my favorite stanley cup contending team. he's quite literally the worst starting goaltender in the NHL and by far the worst starting goaltender of any playoff team


we've had wrecks like Koskinen and Smith be our starters in the McDrai era and even they were infinitely better than whatever Skinner is doing

Some of us recognize that there's more problems with the team than just who's between the pipes.

But management said goaltending is okay and you're okay with management saying that, right? I know YOU'RE smarter than that but others aren't.

 

[MessierThanThou]

You don't need to project, I haven't said any of those things. Also the bolded wasn't a thing for months of this season.

It might be hard to grasp, but both the team AND Skinner played pretty well on the whole between November - mid January. Remember when a common refrain around here was that we didn't really need to do a lot other than 4C and maybe D depth because we had so many players playing so well up front? That was just this year. Same team. Same roster.

The difference? McDavid wasn't playing like complete shit, the team was executing a team defensive structure very well, the team was getting enough saves, and special teams was clicking. None of this is occurring now, and Skinner only has to do with one of the items on the list.

Was Skinner really playing well, aside from the odd game like the one against Boston, or was the team playing airtight hockey and protecting him? Not saying he wasn't playing better than he is now, but during most of these games the Oilers were giving up fewer high-danger chances than the opponent, yet a lot of the time seemed to only win by a goal.

Let us not forget that at one point early in the season Skinner was near the very bottom of the league in GSAx and only slightly above Georgiev when the latter was traded. Very few goalies in the league hit the kind of lows Skinner does, as we saw with him collapsing in three out of six playoff series. He might pull out the odd surprise stretch, but we haven't seen that in a while now.

I mean good on you for acknowledging that he is a problem at the moment, but I'd argue that he's been a problem for this team a lot longer than you are willing to admit.

 

[K1984]

Why should they be way better up front?

Was Hyman supposed to score 50+ goals every year? That was obviously an outlier year.

They lost effectively Holloway, Kane, Foegele, McLeod upfront and replaced them with Skinner, Podkolzin, and Arvidsson, none of whom have been a good fit offensively. Jury is out on Frederic since who even knows how many games we'll get out of him. Savoie is having a good year in the AHL, but he's not ready to be a full time top 6er right now.

RNH, Brown, Janmark are all on the wrong side of 30 ... are their numbers supposed to be going up?

Given the roster handicaps this team has, they are performing about where they should be.

McDavid
Ekholm
Bouchard
RNH
Hyman


All these guys have a ton more to give and I could have made the list longer. Don't need Hyman to score 50, but being noticeable more often than not would be nice. Don't need McDavid to score 64 goals again, but not turning pucks over en masse and being attentive in his own end would be nice. RNH simply competing would be an improvement. Ditto for Bouchard.

Other than Leon, you could argue those are our 5 most important players. All garbage relative to their capabilities. Regression with age is a thing for sure, but that isn't what this is for these players. Other than Ekholm, they aren't that old.

 

[TB12]

Skinner apologists SMH. Hope y'all enjoy your podcasts and safe spaces, defending an absolute slug in net while shitting on Connor. Some fans deserve McDavid leaving, he's not appreciated enough here. Well, you sure as shit will miss him if/when he's gone.

 

[KlefDown]

Some of us recognize that there's more problems with the team than just who's between the pipes.

But management said goaltending is okay and you're okay with management saying that, right? I know YOU'RE smarter than that but others aren't.

im confused. do you think I'm pro-management & Skinner or anti?

our forward core is one of the deepest even though we have some pedestrians

our D core is top tier in almost every category

what possible problem does this team have more important than addressing the guy who faces ~30 shots a game and is on the ice for 60 minutes? please be specific with your answer

Bowman & Co spent all year "accruing cap space" and decided to let Broberg and Holloway walk because they wanted cap flexibility at the deadline just to walk out with 2m in their hands and bums like Kapanen and Janmark holding useless roster spots with no clear upgrade to the goaltending, something which has been discussed about for years.

 

[Soundwave]

McDavid
Ekholm
Bouchard
RNH
Hyman


All these guys have a ton more to give and I could have made the list longer. Don't need Hyman to score 50, but being noticeable more often than not would be nice. Don't need McDavid to score 64 goals again, but not turning pucks over en masse and being attentive in his own end would be nice. RNH simply competing would be an improvement. Ditto for Bouchard.

Other than Leon, you could argue those are our 5 most important players. All garbage relative to their capabilities. Regression with age is a thing for sure, but that isn't what this is for these players. Other than Ekholm, they aren't that old.

I don't know about a "ton more". Hyman is on pace for 31 goals ... that's about right for him in a normal year.

RNH was never a 100 point player, we all knew that and he is getting to about an age range where some decline is probable to expect. He's actually on pace for more goals than last year.

Your team shouldn't fold even with a star player having a down year. Matthews scored 69 goals last year, this year he's on pace for like 35 goals ... THAT is a drop off ... the Leafs are still doing relatively fine, in large part because they did upgrade their goaltending significantly, Stolarz is near the top of the league.'

We needed Skinner to take a step forward, we need at least one of Skinner or Arvidsson to be a big add to the top 6, Bouchard is still somewhat young for a D-Man and has inconsistency in his game. To be honest it's probably for the best that's he not having some light outs season because if he was his contract ask would start with a 12.

 

[K1984]

Was Skinner really playing well, aside from the odd game like the one against Boston, or was the team playing airtight hockey and protecting him? Not saying he wasn't playing better than he is now, but during most of these games the Oilers were giving up fewer high-danger chances than the opponent, yet a lot of the time seemed to only win by a goal.

Let us not forget that at one point early in the season Skinner was near the very bottom of the league in GSAx and only slightly above Georgiev when the latter was traded. Very few goalies in the league hit the kind of lows Skinner does, as we saw with him collapsing in three out of six playoff series. He might pull out the odd surprise stretch, but we haven't seen that in a while now.

I mean good for you to acknowledge that he is a problem at the moment, but I'd argue that he's been a problem for this team a lot longer than you are willing to admit.

I largely agree with you, but you're making my argument for me. If Skinner sucked when we were winning, isn't the blame then squarely on the group up front for dissolving into whatever this is now?

We can only control what we can control. When we were in command of our defensive game and in command of the puck and had key players playing at or near their level we won even with Skinner being arguably still shitty. We were 1st in the division and within 4 points of the President's Trophy. Just a month and a half ago. Same team, same shitty goalie, same season.

Is Skinner playing worse than then? I think so, but it's debatable. However, I don't think it's debatable that everyone else around him is even close to where their game was at not all that long ago.

 

[MessierThanThou]

we've had wrecks like Koskinen and Smith be our starters in the McDrai era and even they were infinitely better than whatever Skinner is doing

Keep in mind that Skinner played behind a better team with a better defensive structure, and, oh yeah, a healthy MATTIAS EKHOLM, and he still looks worse than either of them.

 

[Oilslick941611]

Skinner apologists SMH. Hope y'all enjoy your podcasts and safe spaces, defending an absolute slug in net while shitting on Connor. Some fans deserve McDavid leaving, he's not appreciated enough here. Well, you sure as shit will miss him if/when he's gone.

Where are you seeing skinner apologists?

 

[KlefDown]

Keep in mind that Skinner played behind a better team with a better defensive structure, and, oh yeah, a healthy MATTIAS EKHOLM, and he still looks worse than either of them.

a healthy 40-year old Mike Smith in net last year >>>>> Skinner

the cup would have been ours in 6

 

[Soundwave]

Until the roster is properly built and the management stops shooting the team in the foot, "up and down like a toilet seat" seasons are basically the norm, you just have to accept it (as Ken Holland said "up and down like a toilet seat!").

You just have to accept these wild swings as an Oiler fan. It is what it is.

You will only have better results when the core foundational problems are fixed.

 

[foshizzle]

To be fair the guy you’re replying to is talking about the severity of turnovers not the frequency. This is something that needs to be better quantified with the analytics. The Oilers, by eye, OFTEN have clean possession with everyone on the team thinking attack / break-out/ go for a change and the goalie thinking its time to re-set / rest / take a sip of water, and suddenly the puck is in the HDSC zone on an elite shooter’s stick with no one covering him and the whole team including the goalie scrambling to adjust before the shot.

Which analytic covers that circumstance, and how are we doing in it?

Don’t paint me as a goaltender defender or whatever, because it’s really not about that. I’m seeing Tom Thumb level errors out there, I don’t care who is in net. It’s a combination of poor “game sense/situational awareness” with sloppiness, lack of composure, and poor chemistry — but Less “Error Prone” players , i.e. Ekholm types, would help with this. (Although he has been worse at this type of thing this year by eye as well) . And we’re stuck with the goaltending for the time being regardless, so this is where we should be focused.

To answer your question of how many of Bouchard’s goals results in goals against- that is also measured- and sits right in the middle of the pack amongst d men. What we know- Bouchard handles the puck a lot. Of his possessions, only 11% are turnovers- 6th best amongst all d men. Of those turnovers- he sits middle of the pack in them resulting in goals against. He also posts elite numbers in high danger chances for % (percentage of for and against), scoring chances for, Goals For.

He is 2nd in the league in turnovers in actual count (he handles the puck more than anyone else). You know who is right behind him? MacKinnon, Makar, Karlsson, Hughes, Werenski.

Bouchard just turned 25. He broke the playoff scoring record at the age of 24. If the Oilers won- he was in the conn Smyth conversation. If you trade him, Oilers will be looking for a “Bouchard” type player for the next 15 years

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

im confused. do you think I'm pro-management & Skinner or anti?

our forward core is one of the deepest even though we have some pedestrians

our D core is top tier in almost every category

what possible problem does this team have more important than addressing the guy who faces ~30 shots a game and is on the ice for 60 minutes? please be specific with your answer

Bowman & Co spent all year "accruing cap space" and decided to let Broberg and Holloway walk because they wanted cap flexibility at the deadline just to walk out with 2m in their hands and bums like Kapanen and Janmark holding useless roster spots with no clear upgrade to the goaltending, something which has been discussed about for years.

No I know you're not pro-management.

But I'm curious when you say the bolded. There's numerous scoring droughts by forwards not named McDavid or Draisatl. Virtually the entire forward corps has regressed. RNH has fallen off the map. Added to this is the outgoing forwards who are all having good seasons elsewhere. The forward corps isn't deep, it's extremely top heavy. We've swapped out useful young players for older ones who can't score for beans. Basically every roster addition up front has been passable at best and Kapanen at worst.

The defense is solid but top tier? Bouchard in particular has regressed terribly. Nurse had flashes of brilliance but is more or less the same guy he's always been. Ekholm seems to be going backwards which is alarming. Kulak is solid. Emberson is a warm body and little more. Hopefully Walman injects something more into the team.

The special teams are not great, and nowhere near where they were last year. In fact I'd say it's quite apparent that we rode an unsustainable wave of special teams to the Cup Final last year. Even the vaunted power play looks pretty pedestrian most games because most teams know exactly what our strategy is.

Obviously goaltending is an issue... But you're telling me this team could only put two past one of the worst defensive teams in the league? A team that had lost 6 in a row? The biggest joke in the NHL? Sorry, that to me is unacceptable. Beaten by the Flyers, Ducks, and Sabres within a matter of weeks, and very badly in the case of the former two.

I watch highlights from the playoffs frequently. That team was airtight. That team got the clutch scoring. That team bounced back from everything. This team... I don't see it. Everything is wrong. This feels like the Oilers of 5 years ago, where the entire gameplan was to hope McDavid and Draisatl put up numbers and that the rest of the roster would exist. Playoff heroes Janmark and Brown look completely toast. We're missing the likes of Broberg, Holloway, and yes even McLeod as they would at least chip in offensively and defensively.

Simply pointing to goaltending as the only problem is absolving the rest of the team for their major regression and inability to play the way they were last year.

a healthy 40-year old Mike Smith in net last year >>>>> Skinner

the cup would have been ours in 6

People really need to take the rose coloured glasses off when it comes to Smith. He was absolute dogwater vs the Flames and Avs. The only saving grace was that Markstrom was worse.