Horse Racing: BELMONT dates move to AQUEDUCT; SARATOGA opens July 11

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Wesley Ward has an exorbitant stockpile of 2-year-olds in his stable. Having success with such is not anything new for him. However, his 2019 stats in that category are astonishing:

26 13-2-3 (50%/69%).​

The overwhelming majority of those wins have been with fillies.

In 12 of the last 14 years, he has won 20%+ in such category. Keep an eye on the babies as they develop through 2019.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

May 10, 2019
Minutia for tomorrow:

• Lundqvist runs in New York for the first time after three career starts in Florida.
• June bred: In race 9 at Santa Anita, a first time starter who was bred in June 2016, a late month in North America.
• Tampa Bay has closed until the 2-day June 30-July 1 fiscal year purposes, which means riders and connections send horses elsewhere including Delaware which canceled its card for Monday due to lack of entries.
• Thiago Canuto is listed as a jockey at Gulfstream. I do not know this rider and nothing appears on Equibase. I get the feeling he is from Brazil but it isn't common for me to see a newbie ride without prior knowledge.
• Sheldon Russell rides at Pimlico for his wife who trained under the named Brittany Trimble. They seem to do well as a pair.
• Erik Barbaran rides for Joe Sharp in a $100,000 stakes race at Churchill. I do not know if he has ridden at the track. His history is in markets such as West Virginia, Massachusetts and Ohio. He is coming out of a win at Mahoning Valley (Ohio). Feel good story of the day especially if he wins, for a lesser known jock on a big stage. UPDATE: The horse did not enter.
• Rainbow Six at Gulfstream: The carryover is around $921,000 but should easily exceed $1,000,000 for Saturday.

Belmont (New York):

• Races 1 and 2: The unlikely combination of Benjamin Hernandez, a 7-pound bug, and John Toscano teamed to win the first two races. The rider entered winless in May (0-for-22). The trainer, with only a few starters, had not won since April 17.
• Race 4: The combination that brought home the $121 winner in yesterday's finale won this race at 12-to-1 with the second highest odds on the board. Samuel Camacho, Jr., whose brother is starring in Florida, and Edward Barker, who has a stable on the smaller side, were victorious.

​

• Race 5: This is one of those races that almost everyone lets out a "Oooo." All first time starters. Luis Saez appeared to have an easy win when Theitalianamerican (Joel Rosario/Gary Contessa), second to last entering the stretch, flew along the rail and though lost in a photo finish certainly made quite the impression with such a furious rally. One odd payout: the winner paid $25.80/$6.30/$31.00, meaning it paid more to winning bettors to finish third than first.

​

• Race 8: Luis Saez rode a 13-to-1 shot home to victory. Same winning owner as American Pharoah. The 3-year-old colt is 3 3-0-0 in 2019.
• Race 9: Junior Alvarado nipped Irad Ortiz, Jr. in a strong duel down the stretch. Trainer Rob Atras, who is from Canada and who used to assist Robertino Diodoro, finished 1st and 2nd with his two starters. He is 51 17-12-7 (33%/71%) in 2019. His 2019 numbers are nothing but phenomenal. In his prior years, he trained out west in both Canada and the U.S. The $2 Pick 6 paid over $42,000. The $.50 Pick 5 paid over $43,000.
• Luis Saez-Rudy Rodriguez combined for a perfect 2 2-0-0.

Pimlico (Maryland):

• Weather: What was listed as a "slight weather delay" resulted in cancellation of the card following the fifth race.
• Trevor McCarthy leads the meet with five wins. Only he and Angel Cruz (2) have multiple wins.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Race 9: Edgar Prado rode like a 25-year-old in lifting a 12-to-1 shot. Now in his 50s, Prado has won over 7,000 races.
• Race 5: A new low: $13 in the roulette pool.
• Rainbow Six: No telling how high the bet it will go for Saturday, but it was in excess of $1,000,000 today and that will be surpassed tomorrow.

Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• DQ in the finale: A lengthy review DQ'd the winner and elevated Florent Geroux/Mark Casse while demoting Adam Beschizza/Joe Sharp.
• Race 7: Jon Court won at 12-to-1 just mere minutes after Luis Saez won in New York. Court and Saez were directly involved in the Kentucky Derby DQ.

Belterra (Ohio):

• Track: That was one very sloppy track due to the wet weather at some point earlier.

Indiana Grand (Indiana):

• Race 7: It just seems this way...

​

Santa Anita (California):

• Doug O'Neill had a fine day going 6 3-1-2. Three wins and in the money each time with starters.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

May 11, 2019

• Karl Broberg, the winningest trainer in North America in 2018 and top of the board in 2019, sent horses to six tracks today in five states (Minnesota, Iowa, Louisiana (2), Oklahoma and Texas) and won seven times. He was 17 7-2-2. Your move, Mr. Asmussen!
• Wesley Ward finished 1st and 2nd with his two starters. He has hit the board with 21 of his last 31 starters.
• Jose Ortiz has lost his last 26 starts. He has not won since the Kentucky Oaks.

Belmont (New York):

• Card: The day had five graded stakes races but some had short fields.
• Handle: Over $16,000,000 was bet.
• Jason Servis and Bill Mott won consecutive races. Those were the two trainers involved in the Kentucky Derby controversy.
• Race 10: Channel Maker (Joel Rosario/Bill Mott) won the Grade I $700,000 Man o'War Stakes. This was a good race. The Ontario-bred began her career losing 15 of her first 17 races but has won three of her past seven and is nearing $2,000,000 in earnings.

​

• Race 9: Firenze Fire (Irad Ortiz, Jr./Jason Servis) won the $150,000 Runhappy. It appears the Grade I $1.2 million Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap (G1) on June 8 is next. The Florida-bred ran in the 2018 Kentucky Derby. He won for the 7th time in 16 starts and is a perfect 3-for-3 at Belmont.
• Race 7: Homerique (Irad Ortiz, Jr./Chad Brown) was sent off the favorite and won the $200,000 Grade 3 Beaugay Stakes.
• Race 5: Crypto Gold (Eric Cancel/Christophe Clement) was removed from the victory via a DQ which placed Calamity Cat (Rajiv Maragh/Robert Falcone) on top. Lundqvist finished fifth in his New York debut after three races in Florida.
• Race 4: Global Campaign (Luis Saez/Stanley Hough) won the $300,000 Grade 3 Peter Pan. There is some talk about the horse running in the third leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes.
• Race 1: Heavenhasmynikki (Kendrick Carmouche/Robert Hess) won the $200,000 Grade 3 Vagrancy in a field of five. The filly won for the 7th time in 14 starts. She was named for owner Ron Paolucci's daughter who passed away
• Jose Lezcano is 40 15-6-5 (38%/65%) at the meet. He is red-hot. He has more than 2x as many wins as all other jockeys except Kendrick Carmouche (12 wins). Lezcano is a 17% jockey who is 26% this year which would be a career-best.

Monmouth (New Jersey):

• Race 11: Michael Trombetta, another good trainer, won at 33-to-1. That is almost implausible.
• Race 10: The feature race was won by Imaginary Stables. They won twice at Gulfstream and once here for a perfect 3-for-3 day.

​

Pimlico (Maryland):

• Race 9: The $2 Pick 4 paid over $11,000.
• Race 7: The $2 Pick 4 paid over $21,000.
• Race 5: The $2 Pick 5 paid an astronomical $119,610.
• Race 1: A 30-to-1 shot opened the day with a win. The combo of Sheldon Russell/Brittany Russell, mentioned in yesterday's review/preview, finished second at 4-to-1.
• Trevor McCarthy is 15 6-4-1 (40%/73%) and Horacio Karamanos is 6 4-0-0 (67%/67%) at the meet.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Elizabeth Dobles is 16 6-2-3 (38%/69%) at the meet after winning with both her starters. I have mentioned her plenty of times, from New York state and a former assistant trainer to Jeremiah Englehart. But she has Imaginary Stables, a group with Philly/New Jersey roots with good horses and who generally get attention in the winner's circle. They won twice today including once in a dead heat. I sense there will be celebrations in south Florida tonight with that contingent.

​

• Race 7: The $2 Rainbow six exceeded $1.3 million.
• Carryover: The Rainbow Six carryover will be more than $1,000,000 for Sunday's card.

Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• Race 11: Stunning prices especially for a card not the Kentucky Derby. The $2 Pick 5 paid out to 4 of 5 and at more than $26,000. You lose and still get $26k. The $2 Pick 4 paid a staggering $110,184.40. The $2 Pick 3 was an immense $60,664.60. The $2 double exceeded $2,000.
• Race 10: The winner paid $83.80. The $2 Pick 3 paid $9,990.80. The $2 double paid $2,110.
• Race 9: The winner paid $75.80 and was trained by Michael Maker, not a common price for such a gifted trainer. The $2 Pick 3 paid over $4,800.
• Gabriel Saez, who rode in the Kentucky Derby, won three times and finished 6 3-0-2.
• Leading riders: James Graham, Gabriel Saez and Ricardo Santana, Jr. (9 wins each). Corey Lanerie has eight wins.

Arlington (Illinois):

• Julio Felix rode four winners.
• Race 7: Lanier (Declan Cannon/Brett Santangelo) won the $100,000 Grade 3 Hanshin Cup. The winner was sent off at 5-to-1. The place horse was sent off at 47-to-1, the longest odds on the board. The trainer is relatively young, in his mid-20s, won a stakes race for the first time and collectively won for the 57th time.

Santa Anita (California):

• Race 1: The winner paid $33. The roulette win paid under $4. That is a huge difference. The risk is noted.
• Race 4: Causeforcommotion (Geovanni Franco/Eric Kruljac) obliterated the field of five by winning the $100,000 Grade 3 Santa Barbara by nine lengths.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Wesley Ward has an exorbitant stockpile of 2-year-olds in his stable. Having success with such is not anything new for him. However, his 2019 stats in that category are astonishing:

26 13-2-3 (50%/69%).​

The overwhelming majority of those wins have been with fillies.

In 12 of the last 14 years, he has won 20%+ in such category. Keep an eye on the babies as they develop through 2019.

Ward's 2 yos provide some great contrarian betting opportunities as well. The 2 yo horses he sends to GP are generally ridiculously overbet.

On a completely unrelated note, betting races in NY when horses are running only for purse money is a cool experience. Coming in a well beaten 2nd and cashing a win ticket always makes me laugh.

Has there ever been a Preakness that has so few KY Derby horses in it? The negative fallout from the Maximum Security DQ (which after long consideration I've come to the conclusion that it was a bad decision) has certainly impacted this year's Triple Crown in a very profound manner.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Ward's 2 yos provide some great contrarian betting opportunities as well. The 2 yo horses he sends to GP are generally ridiculously overbet.

On a completely unrelated note, betting races in NY when horses are running only for purse money is a cool experience. Coming in a well beaten 2nd and cashing a win ticket always makes me laugh.

Has there ever been a Preakness that has so few KY Derby horses in it? The negative fallout from the Maximum Security DQ (which after long consideration I've come to the conclusion that it was a bad decision) has certainly impacted this year's Triple Crown in a very profound manner.

1. I don't disagree. And that theory can be applied to similar long-standing trends.

2. I would imagine there were tossed winning tickets today by people who did not pay attention.

3. I am not sure but will try to search for a more proper response. I do seem to recall someone saying that there has never been a Preakness in which the top three KY Derby finishers did not participate. At some point, I will update this answer. UPDATE: Per the Baltimore Sun, this is the first time since 1951 that the Preakness will not include a top three finisher from the Kentucky Derby. If I see something about the smallest contingent from the Derby, I will post it here.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

May 12, 2019

• Weather/track: The east coast was a mess again. New York, Maryland, Philly, New Jersey, etc. all were off the turf. Gulfstream was picturesque with a scenic rainbow hovering nearby to set the tone.

Belmont (New York):

• Weather/track: An unappealing day again in New York. Andy Serling was dressed for the winter.
• Race 1: Joel Rosario hugged the rail in impressive style and won the opener. You know what that usually means when he wins early: he will repeat and he did. He finished 6 2-0-3. Rosario may not be the best rider in the country but few are in his class. UPDATE: Rosario was named Jockey of the Week in North America.
• Race 2: Mike Luzzi schooled his unfortunate opponents with a gate-to-wire victory at 8-to-1. The horse was out for the second time and eased in the first race. That was a signal.
• Race 3: The winner, by more than three lengths, ran for purse money only which meant the runner up was declared the victor. Slimey (Kendrick Carmouche/James Lawrence) gave his connections the purse and took the winner's circle photo but he was not eligible to be bet since (apparently) NYRA listed him at a scratch at one point. Winning tickets were likely tossed by the unknowing.
  
• Race 6: Brad Cox won. Brad Cox is now 10 5-3-0 (50%/80%). Brad Cox is making a footprint in New York.
• Race 8: A blistering pace in which the first quarter mile was done in 21 and 4. Much Better (Javier Castellano/Bob Baffert) and Call Paul (Irad Ortiz, Jr./Jason Servis) had a "let's rock" moment. Castellano faded. Irad tried to hold but sitting pretty in third was Wendell Fong (Jorge A. Vargas, Jr./Jeremiah Englehart). The Laurel horse, all three lifetime starts there, won the $100,000 feature race and is now 4 3-0-0. Once again, a Laurel horse was overlooked in New York. They seem to perform well there. This is why early speed can be a killer:

​

• Race 10: My pick of the day. Daddy Knows (Jose Lezcano/Linda Rice) out for the first time at 8-to-1. The sloppy track seemed to affect many runners and there were scratches, too. This horse struggled early but flew at the end and nearly won at 8-to-1. Second place. Not bad but perhaps worthy of an extensive look again.
• Jose Ortiz has now dropped 30 straight races since winning the Kentucky Oaks. He is an inconceivable 32 1-9-8 (3%/56%) at the meet; the second figure is acceptable for some but that first number is horrible.
• Jose Lezcano is 44 15-8-5 (34%/64%) at the meet. He has one more win than Kendrick Carmouche.

Monmouth (New Jersey):

• Race 3: Joe Bravo failed at his home track on board a 1-to-5 shot.

Pimlico (Maryland):

• Weather/track: Scratches galore. The opener, for instance, had more than half the field scratched.
• Race 6: Avery Whisman, a 10-pound bug, whose parents were both eventers (equestrian) as was he, won for the fourth time In his lifetime. He trained in California and was under the tutelage of Mike Smith among others.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Race 6: The Rainbow Six exceeded $1.2 million.
• Race 9: Motherwell won on Mother's Day.
• Race 11: A DQ in the finale.
• Samy Camacho was off his mounts, a direct result of a spill two days ago. I have not seen an injury report. He was on a great run at both Tampa Bay and perhaps slightly lesser at Gulfstream.

Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• Tyler Gaffalione, who had a cold start to the meet, won two races for the third straight card. He has now won 8 of 51 starts.
• Jockey Standings: Six riders have won 8+ races led by Ricardo Santana, Jr. and Gabriel Saez with 10 each.

Santa Anita (California):

• Gettin' Iggy With It: Ignacio Puglisi won for the first time since November 19, 2017. Iggy snapped a 42-race losing streak.
• Mario Gutierrez/Doug O'Neill/Reddam Racing won twice. They had Nyquist among other horses in the past.
• Norberto Arroyo, Jr. was off his mounts again. Inquiring minds want to know. He has not ridden since May 5.
• Race 7: The feature race...

​

Woodbine (Ontario):

• Race 8: Mark Casse entered three and finished 1-2-3 in the $125,000 feature. The $1 all-Casse tri paid $99. He is in the Canadian Hall of Fame for a reason.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

FRIDAY'S CARD AT PIMLICO

• Full card: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/RaceCardIndexPIM051719USA-EQB.html

Race #	Purse	Race Type	Distance	Surface	Starters	Est. Post (ET)
Race 1	$28,000	Maiden Claiming	6 Furlongs	Dirt	13	11:30 AM
Race 2	$38,000	Starter Optional Claiming	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	14	12:01 PM
Race 3	$50,000	Maiden Special Weight	6 Furlongs	Dirt	9	12:32 PM
Race 4	$43,000	Waiver Maiden Claiming	5 Furlongs	Turf	9	1:03 PM
Race 5	$52,000	Allowance	6 Furlongs	Dirt	11	1:34 PM
Race 6	$52,000	Allowance	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	16	2:06 PM
Race 7	$100,000	Skipat S.	6 Furlongs	Dirt	10	2:39 PM
Race 8	$150,000	Adena Springs Miss Preakness S.	6 Furlongs	Dirt	13	3:13 PM
Race 9	$100,000	Hilltop S.	1 Mile	Turf	14	3:43 PM
Race 10	$300,000	Pimlico Special S.	1 1/4 Miles	Dirt	14	4:14 PM
Race 11	$250,000	Black-Eyed Susan S.	1 1/8 Miles	Dirt	9	4:48 PM
Race 12	$100,000	Jim McKay Turf Sprint S.	5 Furlongs	Turf	9	5:25 PM
Race 13	$150,000	Allaire DuPont Distaff S.	1 1/8 Miles	Dirt	7	5:57 PM
Race 14	$37,000	Maiden Claiming	1 Mile	Turf	16	6:31 PM

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MISS PREAKNESS STAKES

What: Grade III. The second leg of the unofficial Triple Tiara.
Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, Maryland
When: Friday, May 17, 2019, Race 8
Post time: 3:13 pm Eastern Time
Who: 3-year-old fillies.
Distance: 6 furlongs
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $150,000
Television: NBCSN from 3:00-5:00 pm ET
History: First run in 1986.
Note: I like this race among a card full with opportunities.
Note #2: The #13 may have unfamiliar connections: they are Louisiana through and through.
​

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	Iva (KY)	UNKNOWN	120	Wesley A. Ward	-
2	Covfefe (KY)	Javier Castellano	120	Brad H. Cox	-
3	Brunette Princess (FL)	John R. Velazquez	120	Gustavo Delgado	-
4	Please Flatter Me (PA)	Jose L. Ortiz	120	Mark J. Reid	-
5	Congrats Gal (FL)	Trevor McCarthy	120	Cathal A. Lynch	-
6	Never Enough Time (MD)	Julian Pimentel	120	Michael J. Trombetta	-
7	Miss Imperial (KY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	120	Jason Servis	-
8	Tomlin (KY)	Joel Rosario	120	Michael Stidham	-
9	Sue's Fortune (NY)	Jorge A. Vargas, Jr.	122	Jeremiah C. Englehart	-
10	Bye Bye J (AR)	Ricardo Santana, Jr.	120	Ron Moquett	-
11	Fighting Mad (KY)	Florent Geroux	120	Bob Baffert	-
12	Midnight Fantasy (LA)	Luis Saez	120	Joe Sharp	-
13	Best Kept Secret (KY)	Kevin J. Smith	120	Benard Chatters	-

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PIMLICO SPECIAL STAKES

What: Grade III
Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, Maryland
When: Friday, May 17, 2019, Race 10
Post time: 4:14 pm Eastern Time
Who: 3-year-olds and up.
Distance: 1 1/4 miles
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $300,000
Television: NBCSN from 3:00-5:00 pm ET
History: First run in 1937.
Notes: The distance has changed from 1 3/16th mile. The length is interesting in that track officials believe such a distance has not been run at the track since the 1980s.
​

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	War Story (KY)	Javier Castellano	122	Jorge Navarro	-
2	Rally Cry (KY)	John R. Velazquez	122	Todd A. Pletcher	-
3	Flying the Flag (KY)	Jorge A. Vargas, Jr.	122	H. Graham Motion	-
4	Carlino (KY)	Manuel Franco	122	Mark A. Hennig	-
5	Heavy Roller (KY)	Luis Saez	122	Joe Sharp	-
6	Cordmaker (MD)	Victor R. Carrasco	122	Rodney Jenkins	-
7	Just Whistle (KY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	122	Michael R. Matz	-
8	Tenfold (KY)	Ricardo Santana, Jr.	122	Steven M. Asmussen	-
9	Unbridled Juan (ON)	Alex Cintron	122	Jose Corrales	-
10	Bobby G (KY)	Trevor McCarthy	122	Jose Corrales	-
11	Flameaway (ON)	Julien R. Leparoux	122	Mark E. Casse	-
12	Wait for It (PA)	Mychel J. Sanchez	122	Edward J. Coletti, Jr.	-
13	You're to Blame (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	122	Todd A. Pletcher	-
14	Clubman (MD)	Xavier Perez	122	Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon	-

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BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES

What: Grade II. The second leg of the unofficial Triple Tiara.
Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, Maryland
When: Friday, May 17, 2019, Race 11
Post time: 4:48 pm Eastern Time
Who: 3-year-old fillies.
Distance: 1 1/8 miles
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $250,000
Television: NBCSN from 3:00-5:00 pm ET
History: First run in 1919.
Highlights: Black-Eyed Susan Day Notes​

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	Sweet Diane (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	120	Eddie Kenneally	-
2	Off Topic (KY)	John R. Velazquez	120	Todd A. Pletcher	-
3	Ulele (KY)	Joel Rosario	120	Brad H. Cox	-
4	Cookie Dough (FL)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	124	Stanley I. Gold	-
5	Our Super Freak (KY)	Trevor McCarthy	120	Jamie Ness	-
6	Always Shopping (KY)	Manuel Franco	124	Todd A. Pletcher	-
7	Brill (KY)	Florent Geroux	120	Jerry Hollendorfer	-
8	Point of Honor (KY)	Javier Castellano	120	George Weaver	-
9	Las Setas (MD)	Jevian Toledo	120	Katharine M. Voss	-

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[MiamiScreamingEagles]

LUIS SAEZ
Part and parcel of a DQ. Luis Saez received a suspension, the length being 15 days. The suspension begins May 23. He cannot return as of now, pending an appeal, until June 15. The dates do not run consecutively.

The total seems excessive to me. He does plan on an appeal which can lead to a reduced suspension. Saez is an exceptional jockey who has been suspended in recent months but he does not have a reputation. UPDATE: An article says he has been suspended 20 times since 2013.

I still sees both sides of the DQ debate but lean towards the original result standing. Fans, handicappers and insiders I know remain split as do plenty of national participants.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Former major league baseball player Mike Napoli is in his first year of horse ownership. Mostly at Gulfstream, his mark is 27 10-3-2 (37%/56%). He has Trevor McCarthy riding in Delaware this week.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

PREAKNESS STAKES
The May 18, 2019 Preakness at Pimlico (Maryland) is the second leg of the Triple Crown. What is listed below is a field of probable entries. The draw will be held on Wednesday, May 15 at 5:00 pm ET.

• Country House will not run due to an illness.
• Code of Honor, second in the Kentucky Derby, could run next on July 6 in the Dwyer at Belmont (NY).
• Tacitus, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby, is being pointed towards the Belmont Stakes (the third leg of the Triple Crown).
• Top three Kentucky Derby finishers out: Per news reports, this is the first time a top three finisher in the Kentucky Derby has not run in the Preakness Stakes since 1951.
• Maximum Security, who was DQ'd in the Kentucky Derby, will head to New Jersey and could run next on July 20 in the Haskell at Monmouth.
• Market King is a late addition. Everfast was added on May 15.
• Pimlico vs. Laurel: This could be the second-to-last Preakness Stakes held at Pimlico. The goal by the Stronach Group is to switch venues to Laurel starting in 2021. They own both facilities but the city officials in Baltimore want to keep it at home rather than have it moved to the suburban venue. Pimlico holds about 50,000 more people with the infield party presence, something that won't happen at Laurel. My guess is the added revenue would be made by increasing admission prices and whatever else if a switch to Laurel was agreed. This will in all likelihood be a major topic on the NBC broadcast.
• Website: Pimlico's meet is limited to much of the month of the May. Its website is one of the easiest to navigate ( Pimlico | ); simple/old school. However, there remains a link to "Gabby's Picks." She hasn't done that in what...three years? Pimlico/Laurel have one of the best simulcast feeds, too.
• TV Discussion: I suspect the topics to be addressed by the national TV crew:

1. The Kentucky Derby DQ and the fallout.
2. The field.
3. Pimlico vs. Laurel and the possibility of this being the second-to-last Preakness held here.
4. See #1
5. The desires of the Stronach Group to have Laurel host a Breeders' Cup beginning in 2022.​

• TV outlets: 2:00-5:00 pm ET on NBCSN; 5:00-7:15 pm ET on NBC
• Weather forecast:
  
  ​

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]HORSE (odds)[/TD][TD]JOCKEY[/TD][TD]TRAINER[/TD][TD]PEDIGREE[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]IMPROBABLE (3-1)[/TD][TD]Mike Smith [/TD][TD]Bob Baffert[/TD][TD] City Zip-Rare Event, by A.P. Indy[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]BODEXPRESS (30-1)[/TD][TD]John Velazquez[/TD][TD]Gustavo Delgado[/TD][TD]Bodemeister-Pied a Terre, by City Zip[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]WAR OF WILL (7-2)[/TD][TD]Tyler Gaffalione[/TD][TD]Mark Casse[/TD][TD]War Front-Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (10-1)[/TD][TD]Jose Ortiz[/TD][TD]Blaine Wright[/TD][TD]Scat Daddy-Imprecation, by First Defence[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]ALWAYSMINING (5-1)[/TD][TD]Daniel Centeno[/TD][TD]Kelly Rubley[/TD][TD]Stay Thirsty-What Will Be, by Anees[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]LAUGHING FOX (20-1)[/TD][TD]Ricardo Santana, Jr.[/TD][TD]Steve Asmussen[/TD][TD]Union Rags-Saskawea, by Stormy Atlantic[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]SIGNALMAN (15-1)[/TD][TD]Brian Hernandez, Jr.[/TD][TD]Ken McPeek[/TD][TD]General Quarters-Trip South, by Trippi[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]BOURBON WAR (6-1)[/TD][TD]Irad Ortiz, Jr.[/TD][TD]Mark Hennig[/TD][TD]Tapit-My Conquestadory, by Artie Schiller[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]OWENDALE (6-1)[/TD][TD]Florent Geroux[/TD][TD]Brad Cox[/TD][TD]Into Mischief-Aspen Light, by Bernardini[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]WIN WIN WIN (10-1)[/TD][TD]Julian Pimentel[/TD][TD]Michael Trombetta[/TD][TD]Hat Trick-Miss Smarty Pants by Smarty Jones[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]MARKET KING (30-1)[/TD][TD]Jon Court[/TD][TD]D. Wayne Lukas[/TD][TD]Into Mischief-Divine Princess by A.P. Indy[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]WARRIOR'S CHARGE (20-1)[/TD][TD]Javier Castellano[/TD][TD]Brad Cox[/TD][TD]Medaglia d'Oro-For All You Do by Seeking the Gold[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD] EVERFAST[/TD][TD]Joel Rosario[/TD][TD]Dale Romans[/TD][TD]Take Charge Indy-Awesome Surprise-Awesome Again[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Sources: Horseracingnation (odds), Brisnet and DRF

May 15 update
Dale Romans will add a 13th horse into the Preakness as Joel Rosario rides Everfast. The draw will be made at 5 pm ET today. That makes it the largest Preakness field since 2011. Everfast is winless in 2019 and has one win in 10 lifetime starts. Every race has been in Kentucky or Florida.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

It is the time of the year that many tracks open late spring/summer schedules.

PRAIRIE MEADOWS (Iowa):

SUFFOLK DOWNS (Massachusetts):
Among the cards released today are two dates for Suffolk Downs (Massachusetts) this weekend. The once venerable track has been in existence for 80+ years and with the land now sold and in a developer's hands this is in all likelihood the final year of live racing following four dates in June. The powers-that-be are looking into land elsewhere in the state to conduct either a boutique meet or perhaps a fair in order to continue simulcasting near the current facility in addition to keeping the sport active. The possible legalization of sports betting is a consideration as it is with other states and how it ties in to the transformation of horse racing.

When looking at Suffolk Downs, check for shippers out of the Jay Bernardini stable. He is a steady trainer in both West Virginia and Ohio where he conducts his business. He sends 20 (rough count) this weekend. Connections from such places as Mountaineer (West Virginia), Parx (Penn.), Finger Lakes (New York) and elsewhere generally are attracted to Suffolk due to the purse money offered.

A potent Massachusetts-bred will run as Dr. Blarney tries to improve on a lifetime mark of 25 17-1-4 much of that success at Suffolk Downs.

The second to last race on Sunday has a field of three -- THREE! -- in a $50,000 race. But that is due to a shortage of Mass breds which is required to be in this particular race. Still, three is an eyesore. But approx. 200 horses in one weekend is a good tribute.

Last year the track offered good value on payouts and the small takeout should attract handicappers on a busy weekend. In 2017, HANA (handicappers organization) ranked Suffolk as the third best track in North America behind only Kentucky Downs and Saratoga and ahead of luminaries such as Del Mar(4th best). Of course, the small meet has as much as anything to do with that but it represents an opportunity for the novice and more so the serious bettor.


Saturday

Race #	Purse	Race Type	Distance	Surface	Starters	Est. Post
Race 1	$32,500	Claiming	About 7 1/2 Furlongs	Turf	8	12:55 PM
Race 2	$20,000	Claiming	6 Furlongs	Dirt	9	1:23 PM
Race 3	$32,500	Claiming	About 1 Mile	Turf	11	1:51 PM
Race 4	$35,000	Starter Optional Claiming	About 7 1/2 Furlongs	Turf	11	2:19 PM
Race 5	$27,500	Claiming	6 Furlongs	Dirt	7	2:47 PM
Race 6	$27,500	Claiming	About 5 Furlongs	Turf	14	3:16 PM
Race 7	$55,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	About 7 1/2 Furlongs	Turf	9	3:43 PM
Race 8	$25,000	Claiming	6 Furlongs	Dirt	11	4:11 PM
Race 9	$30,000	Maiden Claiming	About 1 Mile	Turf	13	4:40 PM
Race 10	$50,000	Rise Jim S.	5 1/2 Furlongs	Dirt	5	5:03 PM
Race 11	$50,000	Isadorable S.	5 1/2 Furlongs	Dirt	6	5:33 PM

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Sunday

Race #	Purse	Race Type	Distance	Surface	Starters	Est. Post
Race 1	$27,500	Claiming	About 1 1/16 Miles	Turf	14	1:06 PM
Race 2	$25,000	Claiming	1 Mile 70 Yards	Dirt	6	1:37 PM
Race 3	$35,000	Claiming	About 7 1/2 Furlongs	Turf	8	2:07 PM
Race 4	$30,000	Claiming	About 1 Mile	Turf	14	2:37 PM
Race 5	$25,000	Claiming	6 Furlongs	Dirt	8	3:09 PM
Race 6	$35,000	Starter Optional Claiming	About 5 Furlongs	Turf	10	3:41 PM
Race 7	$55,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	About 1 Mile	Turf	9	4:13 PM
Race 8	$27,500	Claiming	1 Mile 70 Yards	Dirt	8	4:45 PM
Race 9	$30,000	Maiden Claiming	About 1 Mile 70 Yards	Turf	14	5:17 PM
Race 10	$50,000	African Prince S.	5 1/2 Furlongs	Dirt	3	5:49 PM
Race 11	$50,000	George F. Brown Memorial Dirt Mile S.	1 Mile	Dirt	4	6:21 PM

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[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

The Preakness doesn't have the historic bombs of the Ky. Derby or Belmont Stakes but there is oftentimes opportunity for exotics. I remember the Mig in '02 riding a 45-to-1 to a place finish when War Emblem won. "Local longshot was a surprise second," Tom Durkin. But again this Preakness won't have a top three finisher from the Derby which I suppose could work in favor or against the trend.

Source: How to Find Longshot Winners in the Preakness Stakes

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

The decision at Arlington to open Illinois-bred races to Arkansas and Louisiana breds is crucial. Illinois breds numbered over 1,000 twenty years ago to under 200 last year. The sport is thriving in Louisiana and Arkansas and the latter will receive a huge boost from other gaming sources in the upcoming years. But Illinois is struggling and the fallout is stagnant and pitiful. Few tracks can match Arlington's history and attractiveness but it is a shadow of itself and places such as Oaklawn, despite no turf, shine brightly.

 

[Preds Partisan]

The decision at Arlington to open Illinois-bred races to Arkansas and Louisiana breds is crucial. Illinois breds numbered over 1,000 twenty years ago to under 200 last year. The sport is thriving in Louisiana and Arkansas and the latter will receive a huge boost from other gaming sources in the upcoming years. But Illinois is struggling and the fallout is stagnant and pitiful. Few tracks can match Arlington's history and attractiveness but it is a shadow of itself and places such as Oaklawn, despite no turf, shine brightly.

So are supplemental purses in state bred races only available to those Illinois horses? I assume that's correct.

 

[GKJ]

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

So are supplemental purses in state bred races only available to those Illinois horses? I assume that's correct.

That is the way I interpret it.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Saturday's full card (NBCSN/NBC in orange):

[TR][TH]Race #	Purse	Race Type	Distance	Surface	Starters	Est. Post
Race 1	$37,000	Maiden Claiming	5 Furlongs	Turf	16	10:30 AM
Race 2	$37,000	Starter Allowance	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	10	11:05 AM
Race 3	$100,000	Sir Barton S.	1 1/16 Miles	Dirt	6	11:41 AM
Race 4	$52,000	Allowance	5 Furlongs	Turf	16	12:16 PM
Race 5	$100,000	James W. Murphy S.	1 Mile	Turf	10	12:51 PM
Race 6	$150,000	Maryland Sprint S.	6 Furlongs	Dirt	7	1:28 PM
Race 7	$100,000	Searching S.	1 1/2 Miles	Turf	9	2:07 PM
Race 8	$52,000	Allowance	6 Furlongs	Dirt	9	2:45 PM
Race 9	$100,000	The Very One S.	5 Furlongs	Turf	9	3:25 PM
Race 10	$150,000	Gallorette S.	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	9	4:05 PM
Race 11	$200,000	Chick Lang S.	6 Furlongs	Dirt	9	4:42 PM
Race 12	$250,000	Dixie S.	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	12	5:39 PM
Race 13	$1,500,000	Preakness S.	1 3/16 Miles	Dirt	13	6:48 PM
Race 14	$50,000	Maiden Special Weight	6 Furlongs	Dirt	9	7:35 PM

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[TBODY][TR][TH]PREAKNESS STAKES

What: Grade I. The second leg of the Triple Crown. .
Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, Maryland
When: Saturday, May 18, 2019, Race 13
Post time: 6:48 pm Eastern Time
Who: 3-year-olds
Distance: 1 3/16 miles
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $1,500,000
Television:

TVG beginning at 10:30 a.m. ET; all day coverage of racing at various tracks
NBCSN from 2:00-5:00 pm ET
NBC from 5:00-7:15 pm ET​

History: The 144th running.
Full card: http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/PIM051819USA-EQB.html?SAP=viewe2
Note: And just like the Kentucky Derby, the connections of War of Will draw the inside post.​

1		War of Will		Mark Casse		Tyler Gaffalione		4-1
2		Bourbon War		Mark Hennig		Irad Ortiz Jr.		12-1
3		Warrior’s Charge		Brad Cox		Javier Castellano		12-1
4		Improbable		Bob Baffert		Mike Smith		5-2
5		Owendale		Brad Cox		Florent Geroux		10-1
6		Market King		D. Wayne Lukas		Jon Court		30-1
7		Alwaysmining		Kelly Rubley		Daniel Centeno		8-1
8		Signalman		Kenny McPeek		Brian Hernandez Jr.		30-1
9		Bodexpress		Gustavo Delgado		John Velazquez		20-1
10		Everfast		Dale Romans		Joel Rosario		50-1
11		Laughing Fox		Steve Asmussen		Ricardo Santana Jr.		20-1
12		Anothertwistafate		Blaine Wright		Jose Ortiz		6-1
13		Win Win Win		Michael Trombetta		Julian Pimentel		15-1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

[/TH][/TR][/TBODY]

 

[John Price]

A black neighborhood’s complicated relationship with the home of the Preakness

 

[bukwas]

FYI
The Black-Eyed Susan will be televised on TSN2 starting 12:00 PST.

 

[GKJ]

Wonder how the ratings will do. First time in, what, 34 years that the Derby winner isn't coming to the Preakness? Either one of them.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

May 16, 2019

Belmont (New York):

• Race 1: Manny Franco won with the longest price on the board at 6-to-1.
• Race 2: Junior Alvarado won with the longest shot on the board at 39-to-1.

Pimlico (Maryland):

• Avery Whisman won at 23-to-1 and is now a 7-pound bug. He is no longer a 10-pound apprentice.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Edgard Zayas won four times.
• Elizabeth Dobles won and finished second, the latter in a nail-biter and both times training for Imaginary Stables. She is now 18 7-3-3 (39%/72%).

Belterra (Ohio)/Churchill Downs (Kentucky):

• Crystal Conning, who hails from Australia, is 3-for-10 in North America after winning her lone starts at tracks in Ohio (day) and Kentucky (night).

 

[GKJ]

Point of Honor with an excellent run in the Black-Eyed Susan. Could've won by more. Look out for that one.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

May 17, 2019

• Jose Ortiz has now lost his last 36 mounts since winning the Kentucky Oaks the day before the Kentucky Derby. He has hit the board with six of his last seven starts.

Pimlico (Maryland):

• Attendance/handle/card: Over 51,000 people attended and more than $22,000,000 was wagered on the impressive 14-race card with the Black-Eyed Susan the feature race.
• Javier Castellano won five consecutive starts including four straight races. His natural hat trick plus one will likely propel him to Jockey of the Week (UPDATE: He won). He also won two graded stakes races. Another premature reports of his skills not being where they were a couple or so years ago were stunted today.
• Race 11: The $250,000 Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes was won by Point of Honor (Javier Castellano/George Weaver) in blistering time, second fastest recorded. Ulele (Joel Rosario/Brad Cox) finished second and seemingly was 14-to-1 near post time but went off at 7-to-1.

• Race 10: Tenfold (Ricardo Santana, Jr./Steve Asmussen) won the $300,000 Grade 3 Pimlico Special by a neck.
• Race 8: Covfefe (Javier Castellano/Brad Cox) won by 8 1/2 lengths and set a track record in winning the $250,000 Grade 3 Miss Preakness Stakes. It was her fourth lifetime start and first graded stakes win among three victories.
• Crazy Eights: The number 8 won six times in 14 races including the first three on the card.
• Brad Cox had three horses entered in graded stakes races, won twice and finished second in the other.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Edgard Zayas won four races (10 mounts) for the second straight day. He was 10 4-0-3.

 

[GKJ]

Going to be worth going vertical in the Preakness today. This thing is wide open. A lot of local action on Alwaysmining with 6 wins in a row at Laurel and rare instance where a 3YO has already been racing for over a year.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

The decision at Arlington to open Illinois-bred races to Arkansas and Louisiana breds is crucial. Illinois breds numbered over 1,000 twenty years ago to under 200 last year. The sport is thriving in Louisiana and Arkansas and the latter will receive a huge boost from other gaming sources in the upcoming years. But Illinois is struggling and the fallout is stagnant and pitiful. Few tracks can match Arlington's history and attractiveness but it is a shadow of itself and places such as Oaklawn, despite no turf, shine brightly.

Arlington Park was the first race track which I ever attended. I think I was around 10 years old. A bad lifestyle started early

Things have gotten so bad that Fairmont Park horses are now competitive in many Hawthorne and Arlington races. The injection of LA and ARK breds will definitely increase the competitiveness of the racing. The purses at Hawthorne were pitiful for the most recent meet. I just noticed that MSW are $30k at Arlington-which is higher than I thought they'd be.

With Sportsman's Park now almost 20 years gone and Fairmont racing two days per week, Arlington and Hawthorne are going to have to have something change or live horse racing will be gone within a few decades in Illinois.