Bedard VS Celebrini

[Danarqhy]

Bedard was supposed to be generational, and was more hyped than Celebrini, but Macklin is having one hell of a rookie season so far and looks like the real deal in all 3 zones.

Simple question: Who is the better player going forward, Connor Bedard or Macklin Celebrini?

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[Yepthatsme]

To me this boils down to would you rather have a centre version of Kucherov or a Mackinnon. Will be plenty of discussion about which is better, and that discussion will probably be on which of two is the best player in the world. I went Bedard here, I feel like he retires with the bigger trophy case when both of their careers are done.

Crazy that Canada is about to have 5 consecutive drafts of:

McKenna-Celebrin-Bedard
Schaefer-DuPont

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Celebrini easily for me

Significantly better two way player and a wash offensively

 

[tabness]

Bedzy ainec

 

[thadd]

I'm going with Bedard. He has skills you can't teach. As he gets older he'll become a much more complete player, as all experienced players do.

 

[SlafySZN]

Hard to say, right now i’m tempted to say Celebrini from the small sample size but it can very well change.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Celebrini for me, and I wouldn’t have expected saying that when he was drafted. Kid is proving he can do it all.

 

[Shark Finn]

Forget going forward, how about going defence?

 

[Bouboumaster]

Bedard for now but Celebrini is really impressive too

 

[centipede2233]

You have to gauge what their post ELC caphits will be. Bedard was labelled a generational prospect and so I could see him getting 11-12 mil per. Celebrini is likely the better 2 way who is already effective at face offs. I see him being at around jack Hughes caphit 8-8.5. I’ll take Celebrini for the mere fact I think he will be 2.5-3 mil per cheaper

 

[HFpapi]

You have to gauge what their post ELC caphits will be. Bedard was labelled a generational prospect and so I could see him getting 11-12 mil per. Celebrini is likely the better 2 way who is already effective at face offs. I see him being at around jack Hughes caphit 8-8.5. I’ll take Celebrini for the mere fact I think he will be 2.5-3 mil per cheaper

There is zero percent chance that happens.

By the time Celebrini is ready for an extension it will have been 6 years since Hughes signed that deal and Hughes had 21 points as a rookie and 31 as a sophomore.

Celebrini might put up 30 goals - 75 points as a rookie in a world where the cap might be like 10 million+ higher than when Hughes signed when it's time for Macklin to sign.

 

[centipede2233]

There is zero percent chance that happens.

By the time Celebrini is ready for an extension it will have been 6 years since Hughes signed that deal and Hughes had 21 points as a rookie and 31 as a sophomore.

Celebrini might put up 30 goals - 75 points as a rookie in a world where the cap might be like 10 million+ higher than when Hughes signed when it's time for Macklin to sign.

Your likely right, he likely commands 10-11 mil per

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I had Bedard ahead to start the year, but instead of the step forward I was expecting, he really has taken more of a step back this year. Despite the Blackhawks scoring much more as a team this year (up to 2.60 g/gp this year vs 2.17 g/gp last year), his scoring pace has actually dropped off a bit, and his underlying numbers are worse pretty much across the board.

Celebrini's individual 5v5 numbers have been way ahead of Bedard's:

Celebrini
0.87 G/60
2.06 P/60
8.87 Shots/60
0.80 xG/60
8.76 iSCF/60
2.81 iHDCF/60

Bedard
0.64 G/60
1.75 P/60
6.05 Shots/60
0.59 xG/60
6.13 iSCF/60
1.59 iHDCF/60

Celebrini's production aside, his underlying numbers are really impressive. He leads all Sharks in rel xGF/60 and all Sharks forwards in rel xG%. Meanwhile, Bedard is 12th and 16th on the Hawks in those two categories (>300 mins).

Considering he's a year older, I find it really hard to justify taking Bedard over Celebrini at this point. The only argument you could make is that he had better junior numbers, which really isn't all that relevant compared to actual NHL play.

 

[Mrfenn92]

 

[BLKHKhockey]

Bedard has not taken a step back this year.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Bedard has not taken a step back this year.

His scoring pace, individual chance creation, and on ice chance creation numbers are all down despite the Blackhawks scoring significantly more this year. Tell me how that's not a step back?

He has been slightly better defensively this year, but he's still very not good.

 

[tfwnogf]

these threads are gonna look real silly when Bedard gets good players on his team and scores 70+ goals a year.

 

[Stealth JD]

discount version of Ovi vs. Crosby.

 

[Video Nasty]

Celebrini might put up 30 goals - 75 points as a rookie in a world

Not in a world where he can only play a maximum of 70 games this season. Even his current stats don’t project to 30 and 75 over the course of a full 82.

On a side note, anyone know what the worst plus/minus is for any notable talent to start their career? Bedard is currently -64 though 115 games. Feels like it has to be among the worst ever.

 

[StlBigFly]

I’d much rather have a play driver than a sniper, all things being equal. Over time as these teams grow, I think one would expect the generational sniper to out produce the 200ft playmaker. They’re both so young and both teams are so under developed. Really hard to decide one being better than the other at this point. Right now it’s like deciding which of two really good ice cream flavors to try.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Not going to comment on who is better. I'm a Hawks fan, so I'm obviously not impartial with that regard.

I will say, though, that Bedard has looked noticeably better since the coaching change happened. He struggled a ton before it happened, but now is arguably the best he's looked in the NHL. He had a 9 game point streak snapped a few games ago and has points in, I believe, 12 of his last 14 games; only getting shutdown by Edmonton and Carolina.

So comparing his numbers this season to last season isn't really taking into account how big of an affect the coaching change has been on him.

 

[Regal]

Not in a world where he can only play a maximum of 70 games this season. Even his current stats don’t project to 30 and 75 over the course of a full 82.

On a side note, anyone know what the worst plus/minus is for any notable talent to start their career? Bedard is currently -64 though 115 games. Feels like it has to be among the worst ever.

Sakic was -76 over his first two seasons, though “only” -51 over his first 115 games.

Yashin was -63 in his first 115 games.

Nash was -62 his first two years but only -39 his first 115.

Bedard is certainly up there.