Prospect Info: Bedard Topic 2

[Kevin Musto]

Guys I think he’s unhappy here

Nazar and Rinzel have him believing like the rest of us

 

[Toews2Bickell]

seems like Bedard is starting to see the vision with guys like Nazar and Rinzel showing elite potential

 

[Toews2Bickell]

So... Serious business. Do we try for that 4 year bridge contract at 8-9M AAV or just say "F it" & throw the bag at him after next season?

8 year extension would be nice, say he gets 8yr 98m per for the sid special that contract could be cheap in a 125m+ cap league and even if hes a ppg guy its still reasonable

 

[Malagahawks]

I would say give him max term at 10m. Barring any major setbacks, that should be a steal for the life of the contract.

Grok's answer:

The maximum Connor Bedard can earn on his next contract with the Chicago Blackhawks, starting in the 2026-27 NHL season, is determined by the NHL’s salary cap and the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), which limits a player’s salary to 20% of the team’s salary cap. The projected salary cap for the 2026-27 season is $104 million. Therefore, the maximum annual average value (AAV) Bedard could earn is:

$104 million × 20% = $20.8 million per year.
This figure represents the absolute ceiling for any single player’s contract in that season, assuming the cap projection holds. However, several factors influence whether Bedard would command this maximum:

• Comparable Contracts: Elite players like Connor McDavid, whose current contract has a $12.5 million AAV (15.72% of the 2018-19 cap), and Auston Matthews, with a $13.25 million AAV (15.06% of the 2024-25 cap), provide benchmarks. If Bedard’s camp targets a similar cap percentage (13-15%), his AAV could range from $13.5 million to $15.6 million based on the $104 million cap.
  
  
• Performance Trajectory: Bedard’s production through the 2025-26 season, the final year of his entry-level contract, will be critical. After winning the Calder Trophy in 2024 with 61 points in 68 games, continued improvement could position him among the league’s top earners.
  
  
• Contract Length: A longer-term deal (e.g., 7-8 years) might approach the maximum cap percentage to lock in security, while a shorter deal (e.g., 4-5 years, like Matthews) could prioritize flexibility and future earnings as the cap rises to $113.5 million by 2027-28.
  
  
• Team Strategy: The Blackhawks may push for a slightly team-friendly deal to maintain cap flexibility for roster building, as Bedard’s contract will shape their financial outlook. He might accept a lower AAV to prioritize winning, though still earning significantly more than his current $950,000 cap hit.

While $20.8 million is the theoretical maximum AAV, it’s unlikely Bedard would reach this exact figure, as no player has signed for the full 20% cap limit in recent years. Based on comparables and market trends, a more realistic maximum for Bedard’s next contract, assuming he continues to perform as a generational talent, is likely in the $14 million to $16 million AAV range for a long-term deal, with the potential to push higher if he opts for a shorter term or if his production rivals the league’s best by 2026. Negotiations can begin July 1, 2025, but the deal won’t take effect until the 2026-27 season.

Note: These projections assume no changes to the CBA or unexpected cap fluctuations. For context, Bedard’s current entry-level contract has a $950,000 cap hit but can reach $4.45 million annually with performance bonuses.

 

[CallMeShaft]

8 years, $9.8m per.

Just like how his hero Sid keeps signing for $8.7m per year.

 

[Wally1112pac]

Guys I think he’s unhappy here

 

[Hull2Roenick2Kane]

earlier I hoped he would take a 8 year 92 mil contract extention, I hope it doesnt exceed 8 year 98-102 million. Blackhawks should be actively trying to frontload every contract they can.

 

[Kevin Musto]

8 years, $9.8m per.

Just like how his hero Sid keeps signing for $8.7m per year.

That's Seth Jones money

 

[Malagahawks]

Not that it matters much (or maybe it does), but I wonder if he waits on McDavid's bag before he negotiates?

 

[Deputy McRizzy]

Not that it matters much (or maybe it does), but I wonder if he waits on McDavid's bag before he negotiates?

Don’t think that matters at all. He needs to focus on himself before he can use the elite of the elite as a measuring stick for his next contract.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Not that it matters much (or maybe it does), but I wonder if he waits on McDavid's bag before he negotiates?

How is he comparable to McDavid in any way?

 

[TLEH]

I think his contract will be a difficult one actually. He's obviously projecting himself to take huge steps. Hawks probably too, but want to be conservative there. Do we buy UFA years. ETC ETC.

 

[Kevin Musto]

I think 8x8.5 is what he's worth at this point in time

 

[Crow]

I think 8x8.5 is what he's worth at this point in time

That’s ridiculously low. When 8 years is the term and the player is 20, a huge part of what he is worth is potential.

 

[Malagahawks]

How is he comparable to McDavid in any way?

He's not but in terms of being his team's best player, maybe he might be advised to ask for just less than the 20% AAV the current CBA allows.

 

[Malagahawks]

That’s ridiculously low.

Yeah, if you go max term it's gonna be about 11.5/12M to get it done methinks.

 

[Crow]

Yeah, if you go max term it's gonna be about 11.5/12M to get it done methinks.

Wyatt Johnston, who has about the same production on a much, much better team and is a year older got about the same amount of money without signing away 3 more UFA years.

Just a ridiculous estimation.

 

[Kevin Musto]

That’s ridiculously low. When 8 years is the term and the player is 20, a huge part of what he is worth is potential.

alright 6 years then

but 8.5 is the number that makes the most sense

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

alright 6 years then

but 8.5 is the number that makes the most sense

You are not buying out UFA years at 8.5. Full stop.

 

[Kevin Musto]

You are not buying out UFA years at 8.5. Full stop.

Wyatt Johnston? Tim Stutzle? There's comparables

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Wyatt Johnston? Tim Stutzle? There's comparables

Stutzle was signed in a stagnant cap and Bedard is going to get way more than Wyatt Johnston on name value alone.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

If he's into a 9.8 per because of his jersey deal that's the dream. I'd expect 8x88 as the floor if you're buying four UFA years.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

For anyone who was worried

 

[TLEH]

I'd guess he does all the RFA years at a lesser rate and then re-evaluates as a UFA.

 

[hawksfan50]

Shouldn't we wait for Bedard version 3.0 before finalizing any extention?

After alk the "new" Bedard next season will be :

1.Faster...he promised to work on his speed issue this off-season..He called his soeed to date just "average"...it may bave been actuakky bekiwxaverage since so many opos who checked hom. Were able to easily keep on hom lije glue...he nedxs to be faster to create mkre separation...get more 2 on1s and break-aways..he says he knows he must get a step faster and will work hard o that this summer.. IF he succeeds then he could explode for 30-40more liubts and that will up the extention price.So if you are Bedard's agent do you sign for less early orcwIt to etna himself adding those extra 30 -40 points this coming season?

2.Tge 'new" Bedard akso needs to shoot more given his shot was the reason hexwas cakjed Generational...IF he takes the advice to heart and does shoot more maybe he hits 40 +goals next season...Again that shoots up the extention price.

3.Will help IF Bedard checks better...getting g faster shoukdvhekp hom get on his man faster...get to loose pucks faster...get to blocking position faster..OF this soeed bump haooens he should be better defensively too and if he also scores more that awful negative I the +/- coukdcget abo e Zero for a change..
That and a deeper more talented team aroubd him shoukd improve his +/-

So let him prove v. 3.0 is achievable and THEN pay him the 15% of Max contract.