Bears & NFL Talk 67: Who needs a kicker anyway?

[ColdSteel2]

Mitch will bet paid, most likely by Chicago unless he's a complete disaster as his contract nears. They gave up quite a bit of draft capital for him and he won't even need to be a top 10 QB to get paid. Their best window to win is before he gets a contract either way. Also depends how reasonable his agent is with him

Someone suggested earlier this summer the Rams would let Goff walk which was ridiculous. The QB position is so important. Good thing is the Bears have some years with him to see what happens.

Wouldn’t it make more sense to try to win in Trubisky’s cheaper years, then trade him for a 1st if he is just a middle of the pack QB? Take that 1st, package it with other picks and repeat the process in the draft with another cheap promising QB. Once they hit on an elite QB, then stop doing that and pay him big bucks.

I wouldn't mind being the team that runs out guys on rookie deals every five years if he doesn't take the next step.

Didn’t see your post before I posted, good call.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Wouldn’t it make more sense to try to win in Trubisky’s cheaper years, then trade him for a 1st if he is just a middle of the pack QB? Take that 1st, package it with other picks and repeat the process in the draft with another cheap promising QB. Once they hit on an elite QB, then stop doing that and pay him big bucks.

What about the rest of the team? Say the Bears lose in the NFC championship game in Mitch's final year and Mitch is good, but not elite, say the 10th best QB. Do you take 2 steps back voluntarily by going back to a rookie QB who even if he turns out eventually, is likely to struggle early on.

 

[ColdSteel2]

What about the rest of the team? Say the Bears lose in the NFC championship game in Mitch's final year and Mitch is good, but not elite, say the 10th best QB. Do you take 2 steps back voluntarily by going back to a rookie QB who even if he turns out eventually, is likely to struggle early on.

I guess it would depend on how the rest of the team looked at that time. If they could resign Trubisky and still maintain their elite defense and offensive weapons at other positions, then yeah, may as well keep him. If his money would mean the defense gets worse with age and a lack of reinforcements, then I’d trade him because that NFC championship game team will most definitely get worse overall by keeping him. However, if they keep the rest of the team at a top level, they could still have a great chance at winning the Super Bowl with an inexperienced QB like they did last year.

This seems like the scenario in which they resigned Cutler and had a mediocre team afterward.

 

[plasmonresonance]

What you're calling mid-tier are QBs like Newton, Cousins, Prescott, Stafford, etc. I think any of these are good enough to win or compete for a Super Bowl. So, depending upon the rest of the team, I probably would choose to pay them before taking a chance on drafting a QB. Obviously this is highly dependent on their age, salary demands and the quality of team around them.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

I guess it would depend on how the rest of the team looked at that time. If they could resign Trubisky and still maintain their elite defense and offensive weapons at other positions, then yeah, may as well keep him. If his money would mean the defense gets worse with age and a lack of reinforcements, then I’d trade him because that NFC championship game team will most definitely get worse overall by keeping him. However, if they keep the rest of the team at a top level, they could still have a great chance at winning the Super Bowl with an inexperienced QB like they did last year.

This seems like the scenario in which they resigned Cutler and had a mediocre team afterward.

There's risk on both sides of it, signing the guy or walking away. But I think the closer your team is to contending the harder it is to walk away. If you're not close to competing I'd be much closer to your way off thinking, speaking in generalities.

Not going to relive the Cutler era but I'll say I'll always wonder what the 2011 team ends up doing if Jay doesn't break his hand tackling on an int. I really think that team would have had a chance.

 

[ColdSteel2]

There's risk on both sides of it, signing the guy or walking away. But I think the closer your team is to contending the harder it is to walk away. If you're not close to competing I'd be much closer to your way off thinking, speaking in generalities.

Not going to relieve the Cutler era but I'll say I'll always wonder what the 2011 team ends up doing if Jay doesn't break his hand tackling on an int. I really think that team would have had a chance.

The decision is complicated by Nagy being a new coach at the same time as Trubisky became the starter. The Bears need to determine if Nagy is a great coach propping up an average to bad QB or if Trubisky is legitimately good, even if not great.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

The decision is complicated by Nagy being a new coach at the same time as Trubisky became the starter. The Bears need to determine if Nagy is a great coach propping up an average to bad QB or if Trubisky is legitimately good, even if not great.

I understand what you are saying, but that really isn't the Bears problem. They don't have to decided what Trubisky would be without Nagy because they aren't going to have Trubisky without Nagy (for the foreseeable future anyways).

If Mitch hit the market and another team wanted to consider signing him, that would be a real question. But the Bears don't have to make that call.

Same thing with McVay and Goff. I certainly have questions as to what Goff would be without McVay, but from the Rams perspective, does it really matter (who's more responsible coach or QB), as long as it's successful.

 

[HawksBeerFan]

Eagles apparently offered Howard to the Chargers for Gordon...



They must not be loving what they are seeing from him.

 

[piteus]

Mitch will bet paid, most likely by Chicago unless he's a complete disaster as his contract nears. They gave up quite a bit of draft capital for him and he won't even need to be a top 10 QB to get paid. Their best window to win is before he gets a contract either way. Also depends how reasonable his agent is with him

Someone suggested earlier this summer the Rams would let Goff walk which was ridiculous. The QB position is so important. Good thing is the Bears have some years with him to see what happens.

Why is it ridiculous? Do you think Goff would have been the QB he is without McVay? The Cardinals gave up on a top 10 pick in one year. Nick Foles was the MVP of the Super Bowl / won another playoff road game ... and was traded this year.

Do I think QB is the most important position in football? Absolutely. That said, there is a growing community who believe trying to win with a good QB on a favorable deal is far better than paying a good QB franchise money. Is Goff a franchise QB or is he the creation of Sean McVay? It's a question that's still up for debate. Case in point ... Kirk Cousins wanted franchise money though he's probably just a "good" QB. Did it help the Vikings? Another example ... Joe Flacco. He was a good QB on a favorable contract who lead the Ravens to the Super Bowl. As soon as he got paid ridiculous, the Ravens struggled. We can go on and on.

There's no doubt you pay the Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady's of the world. A case could be made for Phillip Rivers, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan (though he struggled when Kyle Shannahan left). It's obvious Pat Mahomes is a franchise QB. Is Matthew Stafford a franchise QB ... or just a good QB who is massively overpaid? Is Carson Wentz a franchise QB? In 2017 yes ... not in 2018. So what is Goff and Dak?

The NFL is a dynamic league ... just like the NBA. Winning paradigms shift at lightning speed. John Fox went from well respected coach with Carolina / Denver to dinosaur with the Bears in a matter of a few years.

To a degree, Sports are evolving like Moore's Law. From 3 points shots, to launch angles, passing to open up the run, favoring fast smaller skaters, etc. If you blink, the sport might leave you behind.

 

[piteus]

What you're calling mid-tier are QBs like Newton, Cousins, Prescott, Stafford, etc. I think any of these are good enough to win or compete for a Super Bowl. So, depending upon the rest of the team, I probably would choose to pay them before taking a chance on drafting a QB. Obviously this is highly dependent on their age, salary demands and the quality of team around them.

Here's the question: are they definitely good QBs? There's a big community who believe paying a perceived "good QB" guaranteed franchise money could be the death knell of a team. How much do you lose of the team by paying a good QB big time franchise QB money? And for how long?

The one caveat is that the NFL salary cap keeps rising. That's why teams are willing to gamble paying $30mn for now.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Followed up by, he has to be a HoF'er or let him walk. Because only HoF QBs have ever won SBs.

Which begs the chicken/egg question about HOF QBs. Did they win SBs because they're HOF or are they HOF because they won SBs? There's always a few guys like Marino and Fouts that were HOF despite never winning anything but the landscape of the NFL has changed since then.

 

[piteus]

Which begs the chicken/egg question about HOF QBs. Did they win SBs because they're HOF or are they HOF because they won SBs? There's always a few guys like Marino and Fouts that were HOF despite never winning anything but the landscape of the NFL has changed since then.

There are 4 types of the modern QB:

1. QBs who make everyone around them better (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson ... perhaps Mayfield, Rivers). Newton and Ryan are up and down.
2. Good QBs who can win Super Bowls as long as they have a good supporting cast. Rivers, Newton, and Ryan are more likely in this pile.
3. Mediocre QBs - Good enough to get paid because they're not embarrassing. However, most likely never to win without legendary teammates.
4. Crap QBs

The history of the Bears have been littered with type 3 and 4. If not for injuries, McMahon could have been #2. Cutler was #3. Grossman was #3 and $4. I'm hoping Trubisky is a #2.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

There are 4 types of the modern QB:

1. QBs who make everyone around them better (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson ... perhaps Mayfield, Rivers). Newton and Ryan are up and down.
2. Good QBs who can win Super Bowls as long as they have a good supporting cast. Rivers, Newton, and Ryan are more likely in this pile.
3. Mediocre QBs - Good enough to get paid because they're not embarrassing. However, most likely never to win without legendary teammates.
4. Crap QBs

The history of the Bears have been littered with type 3 and 4. If not for injuries, McMahon could have been #2. Cutler was #3. Grossman was #3 and $4. I'm hoping Trubisky is a #2.

My issue is that guys in the #3 category get paid like #1s. I'm pretty sure that Trubisky is already in the #3 category but it remains to be seen if he gets any higher. My point is you don't commit long-term to anyone who isn't a #1.

 

[piteus]

My issue is that guys in the #3 category get paid like #1s. I'm pretty sure that Trubisky is already in the #3 category but it remains to be seen if he gets any higher. My point is you don't commit long-term to anyone who isn't a #1.

Like I said, the greatest fear is paying a good player franchise type guarantee money. If you're a mediocre player, a franchise will be smart enough to have some outs. However, if you're the Vikings and miscalculated the talents of a Kirk Cousins ... you have no outs. You're stuck.

The only caveat is the rising salary cap at this moment. Teams don't quite know what franchise money is. Some teams like the Eagles and Rams are willing to take that risk ... sort of like what Stan did with Toews and Kane.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Quarterbacks are expensive and they’re hard to find. You don’t let them walk because most of the time if you can’t find a replacement you’ll be fired.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Quarterbacks are expensive and they’re hard to find. You don’t let them walk because most of the time if you can’t find a replacement you’ll be fired.

Tier 3 QBs aren't nearly as hard to find as tier 1 QBs. Most starters are tier 3 guys. Tier 3 guys should be shown the door most of the time instead of being paid ridiculous money. Pace is going to hinge his career on Mitch and if he doesn't get to tier 2 its going to get him fired. I don't think Mitch is going to ever be a tier 1 guy.
I think Trubisky's ceiling is Matt Ryan, who is a high end tier 2 guy.

Tier 2 are the most challenging QBs to have. They're not great enough to win on their own, but they're also above average. I'm convinced that those guys are the ones that you trade to a QB desperate team for a massive haul of draft picks.

 

[RayP]

Option A) resign Mitch in a few years.

Option B) overpay for a Kirk Cousins or Alex Smith type.

Option C) hope to get lucky in the draft after 50+ years of not being able to draft and develop a QB.



It’s pretty obvious which is the best direction to go if Mitch continues to improve.

 

[piteus]

Quarterbacks are expensive and they’re hard to find. You don’t let them walk because most of the time if you can’t find a replacement you’ll be fired.

That's a different argument. You're talking about GMs making stupid moves to keep their job. Case in point ... the Houston Texans. In fact, they have no GM. LOL. Bill O'Brien is trying to keep his job, thus he traded 2 firsts and a second for Laremy Tunsil. That's more than Khalil Mack. This is when stability and good ownership is important. That said, don't go too far the other way like Reinsdorf.

There's a reason why GMs usually get one shot at finding their QB. Pace took his shot with Trubisky. That said, Pace has done a pretty good job finding talent outside of QB and has a great relationship with Matt Nagy who has a ton of goodwill with the organization, players, and fans. That might give him enough credibility to part with Trubisky if necessary. It'll depend how the rest of the team does.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

That's a different argument. You're talking about GMs making stupid moves to keep their job. Case in point ... the Houston Texans. In fact, they have no GM. LOL. Bill O'Brien is trying to keep his job, thus he traded 2 firsts and a second for Laremy Tunsil. That's more than Khalil Mack. This is when stability and good ownership is important. That said, don't go too far the other way like Reinsdorf.

There's a reason why GMs usually get one shot at finding their QB. Pace took his shot with Trubisky. That said, Pace has done a pretty good job finding talent outside of QB and has a great relationship with Matt Nagy who has a ton of goodwill with the organization, players, and fans. That might give him enough credibility to part with Trubisky if necessary. It'll depend how the rest of the team does.

Pace loves Mitch I don't see him parting with him. If they re-sign Mitch I hope it's a 3 or 4 year deal. He could be a late bloomer because of the inexperience.

 

[piteus]

Tier 3 QBs aren't nearly as hard to find as tier 1 QBs. Most starters are tier 3 guys. Tier 3 guys should be shown the door most of the time instead of being paid ridiculous money. Pace is going to hinge his career on Mitch and if he doesn't get to tier 2 its going to get him fired. I don't think Mitch is going to ever be a tier 1 guy.
I think Trubisky's ceiling is Matt Ryan, who is a high end tier 2 guy.

If Trubisky is Matt Ryan, we're winning the Super Bowl. I don't think Trubisky will ever be a franchise type quarterback (very few are) ... but Matt Ryan is still a very good QB. A very good QB can will win a Super Bowl with this team.

 

[piteus]

Pace loves Mitch I don't see him parting with him. If they re-sign Mitch I hope it's a 3 or 4 year deal. He could be a late bloomer because of the inexperience.

Never trust GM speak. I think he's very hopeful, but there are still concerns.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Option A) resign Mitch in a few years.

Option B) overpay for a Kirk Cousins or Alex Smith type.

Option C) hope to get lucky in the draft after 50+ years of not being able to draft and develop a QB.



It’s pretty obvious which is the best direction to go if Mitch continues to improve.

1) how much does he improve? If he's not in the MVP conversation, then you have to consider option 3.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

If Trubisky is Matt Ryan, we're winning the Super Bowl. I don't think Trubisky will ever be a franchise type quarterback (very few are) ... but Matt Ryan is still a very good QB. A very good QB can will win a Super Bowl with this team.

With the team the Bears have now? Yeah. Long term it's going to be much harder. I don't know if Mitch is going to get to that level during their window though.

 

[RayP]

1) how much does he improve? If he's not in the MVP conversation, then you have to consider option 3.

Assuming we aren’t picking in the top 5, then no, you don’t.

I don’t think he’ll be elite but I think he improves and is a legit no doubt #1.

 

[ChiHawks10]

1) how much does he improve? If he's not in the MVP conversation, then you have to consider option 3.

This is where you lose people. The awful hyperbole. You don't have to be an MVP to win a team a Super Bowl. Rex f***ing Grossman almost won a Super Bowl...