OT: Bears & NFL Talk 103

[Sarava]

There are two games remaining in the season and the Bears have the same record as the Carolina Panthers.

Let that sink in

Carolina has been playing decent ball. And Bryce Young is finally showing something.

Oh and with the Cowboys win, the Bears now are guaranteed no worse than the 11th pick in the draft.

 

[HeisenBaez]

Keeping Poles would be like keeping Flus last year. If they do it I’ll feel the exact same as I did when they kept Flus.

I think we all agree that Poles needs to go, but this is the Bears we are talking about. The next time they make a smart decision will be the first time they make a smart decision.

My expectation is that not only will the Bears retain Poles but they will extend him to match the incoming HC contract. Will I hate it if the Bears make that happen? Yes, you bet. Will I be surprised? Unfortunately, no.

 

[GIADF]

Carolina has been playing decent ball. And Bryce Young is finally showing something.

Oh and with the Cowboys win, the Bears now are guaranteed no worse than the 11th pick in the draft.

Dallas W stings a bit. Was hoping Tampa would win and Atlanta would have nothing to play for in the finale against Carolina.

Still a winnable game for Carolina being a divisional game and chance to play playoff spoiler. They seem to be having a lot of fun playing as a team too.

Jets have Miami in their finale and I’m hoping Miami has fully given up by then. Not expecting a W for them by any stretch, but again divisional game so you never know.

 

[Romang67]

Man, the Raiders, who have been in pole position to pick Sanders, and have been openly hinting at taking Sanders, are now the #4 QB needy team in the draft order with 2 games to go after yesterday's win.

I can't really see either them or the Browns go into next season with the hopeless pile of junk on QB and just tell their strong defense to shut up and dribble, but there isn't much in terms of reclamation projects out there, and no other QB than Ward and Sanders is even remotely close to being worth picking in the top 10.

 

[GIADF]

Looking ahead to the Seahawks game.... they're pretty middle of the pack in rush defense, pass defense, and points allowed.

Thursday games are always weird, so who knows what happens on a short week with a holiday no less, but it is essentially a must win for them.

The game is in Chicago, but Seattle is oddly 5-1 on the road and 3-6 at home. Bears are 4-4 at home and 0-7 on the road.

Another L and good offensive output are all I want to see.

 

[GIADF]

Man, the Raiders, who have been in pole position to pick Sanders, and have been openly hinting at taking Sanders, are now the #4 QB needy team in the draft order with 2 games to go after yesterday's win.

I can't really see either them or the Browns go into next season with the hopeless pile of junk on QB and just tell their strong defense to shut up and dribble, but there isn't much in terms of reclamation projects out there, and no other QB than Ward and Sanders is even remotely close to being worth picking in the top 10.

It kind of sucks there won't be a 3rd QB likely to jump high enough with pre-draft hype to be a trade candidate for the Bears pick. Just a bad QB class period and we got really lucky timing wise to draft 1 OA when we did. I wouldn't trade CW straight up for Shadeur if given the chance and wouldn't even think twice about it.

Ultimately, I don't think there likely is going to be a slam dunk pick you have to take at 9 or 10, so dropping back this year probably wouldn't be a huge deal if you can capitalize on it. Hopefully Campbell or Banks are available, and they just build on the offensive line. Can't go wrong if that's the direction you go.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

Sweat trade and extension looks like it can be put in the mistake bin.

Horrible. Him, JJ and DJ all half assing it after getting big contracts and many ex players calling them out on social media

It kind of sucks there won't be a 3rd QB likely to jump high enough with pre-draft hype to be a trade candidate for the Bears pick. Just a bad QB class period and we got really lucky timing wise to draft 1 OA when we did. I wouldn't trade CW straight up for Shadeur if given the chance and wouldn't even think twice about it.

Ultimately, I don't think there likely is going to be a slam dunk pick you have to take at 9 or 10, so dropping back this year probably wouldn't be a huge deal if you can capitalize on it. Hopefully Campbell or Banks are available, and they just build on the offensive line. Can't go wrong if that's the direction you go.

This might be the worst qb draft in recent memory.

What’s crazy about this season is that you have 3 - yes 3 teams in the NFCN with a very left chance to make the SB. Thats crazy.

 

[Romang67]

Jones fractured his fibula* and is out for the season.

It kind of sucks there won't be a 3rd QB likely to jump high enough with pre-draft hype to be a trade candidate for the Bears pick. Just a bad QB class period and we got really lucky timing wise to draft 1 OA when we did. I wouldn't trade CW straight up for Shadeur if given the chance and wouldn't even think twice about it.

Ultimately, I don't think there likely is going to be a slam dunk pick you have to take at 9 or 10, so dropping back this year probably wouldn't be a huge deal if you can capitalize on it. Hopefully Campbell or Banks are available, and they just build on the offensive line. Can't go wrong if that's the direction you go.

Maybe Ewers goes on a hot streak and wins the playoffs and someone gets suckered into picking him early. But yeah, it's a weak class. Going into the draft, I think it's the second weakest in recent drafts only ahead of 2022.

* ninja edit, bone names are hard.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Quarterbacks always get pushed up

 

[StreetHawk]

Man, the Raiders, who have been in pole position to pick Sanders, and have been openly hinting at taking Sanders, are now the #4 QB needy team in the draft order with 2 games to go after yesterday's win.

I can't really see either them or the Browns go into next season with the hopeless pile of junk on QB and just tell their strong defense to shut up and dribble, but there isn't much in terms of reclamation projects out there, and no other QB than Ward and Sanders is even remotely close to being worth picking in the top 10.

Always have to separate what is best for team vs coaches/players. Guys are playing for a job in 2025, be it with LV or elsewhere. Same as any other team.

Of the 318 players (53 man roster) on those 6 clubs with 3 or fewer wins like giants, browns, raiders, patriots, titans, jags (jags and titans play next week so only 1 will remain at 3 wins), probably under 200 of those players return to their team.

Thus, rest of those guys don’t have as much incentive in losing for a higher draft pick and they won’t be around for that benefit.

 

[belfour30]

How does Williams' rookie season compare to Stroud last year?

 

[Romang67]

Always have to separate what is best for team vs coaches/players. Guys are playing for a job in 2025, be it with LV or elsewhere. Same as any other team.

Of the 318 players (53 man roster) on those 6 clubs with 3 or fewer wins like giants, browns, raiders, patriots, titans, jags (jags and titans play next week so only 1 will remain at 3 wins), probably under 200 of those players return to their team.

Thus those guys don’t have as much incentive in losing for a higher draft pick and they won’t be around for that benefit.

Oh, absolutely not. There was no way the players or coaches weren't gonna try to win. But I'm very curious about what the Raiders organization does now. I can't see Telesco being thrilled about the outcome of that game.

I suppose New England is all of a sudden in the very desirable position of having a draft pick that 3 teams just below them in the draft will want.

 

[Romang67]

How does Williams' rookie season compare to Stroud last year?

Not particularly close. Might end up with similar TD/INT numbers, but he didn't have anywhere near the sacks, and didn't have yardage that Stroud did playing only 15 games. Stroud's rookie season was great.

There is a case to be made that Stroud's 2nd season is worse than Williams's rookie season though. Same number of TDs, similar yardage, 6 more interceptions, a lot of sacks (though not as many as Williams). Worse passer rating.

 

[StreetHawk]

Oh, absolutely not. There was no way the players or coaches weren't gonna try to win. But I'm very curious about what the Raiders organization does now. I can't see Telesco being thrilled about the outcome of that game.

I suppose New England is all of a sudden in the very desirable position of having a draft pick that 3 teams just below them in the draft will want.

I never viewed Sanders/Ward as guys I'd trade up for. So, see how much Brady is in love with them. If he's anywhere decent at evaluating talent, he'd see LV is lacking in multiple positions and can't afford to give up extra draft capital. The price is going to be what SF gave up for Lance and what CAR gave up for Young.

Flipping picks, but then adding 2 extra first and a 3rd. The other was an extra 1st, 2 seconds, and a very good roster player in Moore. Raiders can't afford that. Need upgrade at WR, RB, OL needs more than Powers-Johnson and often knicked up Miller now. DL needs to add help, unless Wilson actually produces. Same at LB. Secondary, they have to sign S Moehrig and still need help.

SOS impacts the draft order. I don't know if NE's SOS will improve to the point where they go from 2 down to 3 if all teams continue to lose out. We know for sure, one of Ten/Jax won't be at 3 wins as they play each other in week 17.

 

[belfour30]

Not particularly close. Might end up with similar TD/INT numbers, but he didn't have anywhere near the sacks, and didn't have yardage that Stroud did playing only 15 games. Stroud's rookie season was great.

There is a case to be made that Stroud's 2nd season is worse than Williams's rookie season though. Same number of TDs, similar yardage, 6 more interceptions, a lot of sacks (though not as many as Williams). Worse passer rating.

Didn't Williams say something about trying to be an Aaron Rodgers type QB? Or am I imagining things.

He's good at throwing the ball away when nothing is there.

How much of the sacks are on CW and how much are the OL?

 

[Romang67]

Didn't Williams say something about trying to be an Aaron Rodgers type QB? Or am I imagining things.

He's good at throwing the ball away when nothing is there.

How much of the sacks are on CW and how much are the OL?

I think he wants to emulate Rodgers. Rodgers used to take a lot of sacks when he was younger. Never as many as Williams this season, but he was north of 50 sacks a couple of times. Rodgers was never really the Manning/Brady/Burrows type of QB that just immediately threw the ball at the RBs feet when he decided a play had gone away.

Williams has been bad at throwing the ball away instead of being sacked when he's been in the pocket. That's something he needs to work on. He did it in the pocket yesterday against the Lions, which was nice to see. He needs to do it more often.

I think it's about 50/50. The OL has been BAD. Stat sites like PFF are grading them high, but I've watched the offensive snaps on the QB School channel every week, and it's genuinely awful, especially on the interior. And on both run blocking and pass pro. You see other teams around the league give the QB plenty of time on non-play-action drop backs that the OL just haven't given Williams this season. But to me, the times when Williams clearly has felt the shrinking pocket and has kept looking until the pocket just isn't there and takes a sack have been too numerous.

He will basically take 4 types of sacks:

1. The O-lineman immediately loses and he gets blown up. There were 3 of those these past two weeks.

2. He tries to climb the pocket and gets taken down as he gets closer to the line of scrimmage. There was one of those yesterday.

3. He tries to escape in the backfield, and gets taken down for a big loss. Think the Vikings OT sack, or the 20 yard sack against the Titans.

4. The pocket shrinks and he gets taken down for a 5-7 yard loss.

#1 and #2 I don't think will stop, and I'm not concerned about in the slightest. #1 will be fixed with a better O-line. #2 is a small negative play at worst, and at best leads to a throw or run after he climbs the pocket.

#3 I'm slightly more split on long term. He needs to learn when a play is dead, and when it's a play he can get out of and make a big scramble play on. I think if you teach him to just throw it away immediately instead of trying to make something happen in the backfield at all, you take away a big part of what makes him special. I think he will always be a player who takes a drive-killing 15 yard sack a few times per season. But if the majority of those plays lead to a massive gain on a scramble drill or a throw away, I'll take the good with the bad.

#4 needs to stop, pretty much right away and definitely by next season. It puts them way behind the sticks on too many plays, it's avoidable, and it very seldom has led to anything of value. Just yeet the ball at the feet of the running back and live to play another down. If we remove 50% of sacks of this kind this season, I think he's probably down in the 40s for his sack number. He'll take many of them on 3rd down, and unless they push the offense out of field goal range, or out of potential 4th-and-go-for-it range, there is really nothing wrong with taking a coverage sack on 3rd down. He just has to be aware of when he can take them, when he can't, and when he shouldn't.

 

[Romang67]

If Williams throws for 600 yards (568, really) in these last two games, he'll break the Bears single season passing record. He'd also be 21st in Bears career passing yards.

If he has 77 more passing attempts without an interception, he'll break the NFL record for most concecutive passing attempts without an interception.

There are also only 5 occurrences in NFL history where a QB has gone winless in 5+ games consecutive games without an interception.*

Caleb Williams, games 7-11 in 2024.
Caleb Williams, games 8-12 in 2024.
Caleb Williams, games 9-13 in 2024.
Caleb Williams, games 10-14 in 2024.
Caleb Williams, games 11-15 in 2024.

* I can't find the stat for this one. It might have been 6+ games, but I think it was 5.

 

[Romang67]

Actual fun fact: yesterday was Keenan Allen's longest TD reception in his career.

 

[belfour30]

If Williams throws for 600 yards (568, really) in these last two games, he'll break the Bears single season passing record. He'd also be 21st in Bears career passing yards.

If he has 77 more passing attempts without an interception, he'll break the NFL record for most concecutive passing attempts without an interception.

There are also only 5 occurrences in NFL history where a QB has gone winless in 5+ games consecutive games without an interception.*

Caleb Williams, games 7-11 in 2024.
Caleb Williams, games 8-12 in 2024.
Caleb Williams, games 9-13 in 2024.
Caleb Williams, games 10-14 in 2024.
Caleb Williams, games 11-15 in 2024.

* I can't find the stat for this one. It might have been 6+ games, but I think it was 5.

17 games vs 16. Gotta remember that.