OT: Bears & NFL Talk 102

[Backyard Hockey]

Hot prediciton: Bears will get boat raced by the Lions on Thurs. That means 10 days until their next game. Eberflus will be fired after the Detroit game.

 

[Romang67]

Can you share where you can look at these numbers? Ideally by team by year.

I can’t find anything and am not going to go game by game, but am really curious to see what the Bears and specifically Flus teams come in at % wise.

I got the 50%+ vs 31% from this article: NFL teams have succeeded on just 31 percent of two-point conversion attempts this season.

I got the 40% for the Bears this season from here:

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Two Point Conversion Percentage | TeamRankings.com

NFL Football two point conversion percentage, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

But I don't know if that website is reliable at all. According to ESPN, the Bears have three 2-point conversions this season (Swift, Kmet, Moore), but I'm not sure how many they have tried.

According to that same website, they were ATROCIOUS at it the previous two seasons (which may have to do with the fact that Fields was just not very good at short yardage situations if you take away his legs).

 

[GIADF]

I got the 50%+ vs 31% from this article: NFL teams have succeeded on just 31 percent of two-point conversion attempts this season.

I got the 40% for the Bears this season from here:

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Two Point Conversion Percentage | TeamRankings.com

NFL Football two point conversion percentage, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

But I don't know if that website is reliable at all. According to ESPN, the Bears have three 2-point conversions this season (Swift, Kmet, Moore), but I'm not sure how many they have tried.

According to that same website, they were ATROCIOUS at it the previous two seasons (which may have to do with the fact that Fields was just not very good at short yardage situations if you take away his legs).

Yeah, that’s same stuff I came across as well. Was hoping Football Reference had a page simply listing attempts and such but couldn’t find one there.

 

[Romang67]

Unsurprisingly, a weak O-line looks a lot better when many of the throws are out of Williams's hand quickly. Fewer pressures, fewer sacks, and some good pass-pro when they needed it.

 

[Romang67]

In happier news: Caleb Williams has now broken the passing yard record for a Bears QB held by Mitch Trubisky, and tied the passing TD record by a Bears QB hold by Chuckin' Charlie O'Rourke.

He's still behind O'Rourke in interceptions thrown (16), interceptions made (3), punt returns (2), and punts kicked (23), and I don't think he'll catch him in those categories.

 

[ClydeLee]

In happier news: Caleb Williams has now broken the passing yard record for a Bears QB held by Mitch Trubisky, and tied the passing TD record by a Bears QB hold by Chuckin' Charlie O'Rourke.

He's still behind O'Rourke in interceptions thrown (16), interceptions made (3), punt returns (2), and punts kicked (23), and I don't think he'll catch him in those categories.

He could do punt returns just as well

 

[bwanajamba]

Unsurprisingly, a weak O-line looks a lot better when many of the throws are out of Williams's hand quickly. Fewer pressures, fewer sacks, and some good pass-pro when they needed it.

The unimaginable part is that Waldron wouldn't have been able to diagnose the issue and adjust as the offense fell apart against very mediocre competition. But then it's even more unimaginable that Thomas Brown could take over and re-wire Caleb's brain in four days to make him suddenly willing to get the ball out on time if that was being emphasized beforehand.

Baffling stuff in any case and really makes you mourn those lost weeks where Caleb took some steps back. Not that none of that was his fault but still.

 

[Romang67]

The unimaginable part is that Waldron wouldn't have been able to diagnose the issue and adjust as the offense fell apart against very mediocre competition. But then it's even more unimaginable that Thomas Brown could take over and re-wire Caleb's brain in four days to make him suddenly willing to get the ball out on time if that was being emphasized beforehand.

Baffling stuff in any case and really makes you mourn those lost weeks where Caleb took some steps back. Not that none of that was his fault but still.

It's weird. It's definitely not unheard of that a rookie hits a rough patch and then rebounds and just seems like he gets it all of a sudden. But his average time to throw was 3.11 seconds over the Commies, Cards, Pats, and he ate 18 sacks over that period and looked like he wasn't allowed to leave the pocket. It's been 2.42 seconds over the past 2 weeks and he has taken 6 sacks in these two games.

The difference is startling, both via eye test and numbers.

 

[ChiHawks10]

It's weird. It's definitely not unheard of that a rookie hits a rough patch and then rebounds and just seems like he gets it all of a sudden. But his average time to throw was 3.11 seconds over the Commies, Cards, Pats, and he ate 18 sacks over that period and looked like he wasn't allowed to leave the pocket. It's been 2.42 seconds over the past 2 weeks and he has taken 6 sacks in these two games.

The difference is startling, both via eye test and numbers.

It's almost like getting the ball out of your QBs hands quickly helps when the O line is dogshit eh? Who would have thought? Obviously not Waldron.

 

[Romang67]

It's almost like getting the ball out of your QBs hands quick helps when the O line is dogshit eh? Who would have thought? Obviously not Waldron.

Not only does it help with not taking sacks, which feels obvious, but it also just opens up the the field. Every player on the field other than the DTs becomes less likely to pin their ears back and rush the passer. And the O-line doesn't get exhausted having to block for 3+ seconds every other play.

I mean, look at Braxton Jones when gets to get out in open space and block instead of just having to eat a bullrush 20 times per game.

It's really weird. I understand that some QBs struggle with throwing quick WR screens and slants, but it never really looked like Williams did. So why not use it?

 

[Praetorian Caps]

The decision to go for 2 decided the game. Fire him now

 

[TLEH]

Fire em both.

 

[HeisenBaez]

Fire em both.

Poles is not getting, yet. I think he'll get '25 to bounce back. Flus is dead man walking and I believe he knows it.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

That would be a very Bears thing to do to fire a head coach, give a GM another year to prove himself, fire the GM the next year, and handcuff any GM candidate to a promise to let the coach they didn’t hire have a couple years to prove themselves.

 

[ndgt10]

Poles is not getting, yet. I think he'll get '25 to bounce back. Flus is dead man walking and I believe he knows it.

That's dumb. No good coach is going to want to come here with the GM on the hotseat.

Equivalent of the Bears drafting a QB and keeping the head coach who is on the hot seat.

 

[ClydeLee]

I don't think Poles is going to be viewed as on the hot seat.

 

[GIADF]

I don't think Poles is going to be viewed as on the hot seat.

I don't either, and I don't agree with it, but I think he gets to pick one more head coach.

 

[Sarava]

It's weird situation. This team has risen greatly in talent in a few short years, thanks to Poles. Obviously expectations came up short this year. But Poles made what probably is the greatest trade in Bears history. I'd think it would be awfully hard to can him.

That said, if you keep Poles, you stay on this circle jerk of firing the coach after the prized rookie QB's first season, and then bring in a head coach with a potentially lameduck GM. That will scare off the Ben Johnson caliber candidates most likely.

At this point, I'd say the situation seems to be pointing to Thomas Brown as Flus's replacement, maybe as soon as Friday or next Monday.

 

[hawksrule]

It's weird situation. This team has risen greatly in talent in a few short years, thanks to Poles. Obviously expectations came up short this year. But Poles made what probably is the greatest trade in Bears history. I'd think it would be awfully hard to can him.

That said, if you keep Poles, you stay on this circle jerk of firing the coach after the prized rookie QB's first season, and then bring in a head coach with a potentially lameduck GM. That will scare off the Ben Johnson caliber candidates most likely.

At this point, I'd say the situation seems to be pointing to Thomas Brown as Flus's replacement, maybe as soon as Friday or next Monday.

But he’s really done next to nothing good other than that trade. It’s not enough.

 

[Pez68]

The simple reality is that keeping Eberflus was his decision, and that has set this team back two seasons minimum.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Can’t imagine them firing poles

 

[GIADF]

Lets not forget what Poles was saying about Eberflus and why he decided to keep him. He tied himself to that trainwreck and should be out the door with him.

However, I can also see Warren being so focused on the stadium deal that he doesn't want to deal with replacing a GM at the same time and giving Poles another year.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/01/14/why-did-chicago-bears-gm-ryan-poles-decide-to-retain-coach-matt-eberflus-the-stability-was-a-big-piece-of-it/

 

[Backyard Hockey]

Lots of discussion about this but the sad reality is that we are in the exact same spot with the Bears and the Hawks. 'Let them lose out and tank so we can get the higher draft pick and get the coaching staff fired' and 'this season is a loss and we are no longer about wins and losses, it's about seeing the development of this one guy'.

That is the reality of the Bears and Hawks right now. And it's a sad one.