OT: Bears & NFL Talk 102

[Backyard Hockey]

The decision to go for 2 decided the game. Fire him now

 

[HeisenBaez]

Fire Poles and Eberflus already

Neither should have a job

Not on a short week.

If the Lions beat the Bears bad enough maybe the Bears will fire Flus.

Football is not fun.

 

[hawksrule]

So Chicago Bears.

 

[Romang67]

Alright, going up against probably the best team in the league, away, short week, on Thanksgiving, and they have been eating teams alive defensively recently. How are we feeling about that one?

Easier to swallow a blowout loss with a healthy serving of turkey? That's what I was thinking too.

 

[ClydeLee]

Loser point secured

 

[Backyard Hockey]

Think about that. Min has 2nd and 15 and 1st and 29 and they convert both and score

 

[ndgt10]

Alright, going up against probably the best team in the league, away, short week, on Thanksgiving, and they have been eating teams alive defensively recently. How are we feeling about that one?

Easier to swallow a blowout loss with a healthy serving of turkey? That's what I was thinking too.

Lions -9.5, ML -600

 

[Mrfenn92]

Caleb’s good atleast. Sucks for you clowns that’s cheer for everyone to suck

They still will cheer for that and never mention anything good in regards to him.

 

[Crow]

The decision to go for 2 decided the game. Fire him now

What was the f***ing point of that anyway? Killed all of the momentum

 

[Romang67]

The decision to go for 2 decided the game. Fire him now

It ended up not mattering. They scored on the 2 point conversion after the final TD, so they got 14 points out of it anyway. Maybe they could have gone for 2 and kicked a field goal to win the game, but do we really believe Flus would do that?

 

[Romang67]

On the one hand, Brown also abandoned the run this game. On the other hand, man was it bad today. Not sure you can have a worse combo than the Vikings' linebackers and Swift's aversion to running between the tackles.

The WR screens basically did what the run couldn't anyway.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

I know it’s hyperbole but again the defame and Flus’ decision lost them the game. This is on him.

 

[Romang67]

Schedule turns out to be fairly positive for the Fire Eberflus movement. Last year the latter half of the schedule was considerably weaker than the front half, especially offensively. Seemed like Eberflus was on to something with the defense. In the second half so far, they allowed 8.5 yards per play to the Packers and 7 yards per play to the Vikings.

Or I guess the defense could have a strong showing from now until the end of the season and prove to everyone that Eberflus is a quality defensive coach

 

[bwanajamba]

Losing another heartbreaker is extremely frustrating of course but considering that this season is already lost, this game went absolutely perfect imo. Caleb was great and delivered yet another clutch moment while Eberflus got exposed again and the draft position improved.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

These games just continue to be a massive indictment on Flus and Poles.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

Crazy to think that ST cost the Bears 10
points today.

 

[TLEH]

Going for two is literally the correct play.

Math says you’ll get the 2 point conversion once in two tries.

If you get the first one then you can kick the Xp to win. If you miss the first, odds are you’re due for the 2nd to tie.

Analytics say it

 

[MarotteMarauder]

I know the coach, needs to go but I came away from today's game thinking the Bears are not that far away from a good winning record.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

I'm fully expecting these idiots to just hire Mike McCarthy this offseason. Our only hope is that the Cowboy are bigger idiots and retain him.

 

[Romang67]

Hey look, the Commanders had a Hail Mary opportunity where Daniels had to throw it from their own 35, and the ball didn't reach the end zone.

Flus, what was that about the 15 free yards you handed to the Commies that apparently didn't matter?

Moron.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

It ended up not mattering. They scored on the 2 point conversion after the final TD, so they got 14 points out of it anyway. Maybe they could have gone for 2 and kicked a field goal to win the game, but do we really believe Flus would do that?

But it forced them to have to go for 2 at the end of game for no reason. If the Bears don't convert that 2pt conversion to make it 27-24, the game is effectively over. I could understand if the Bears were down 13 and going for two cut it to a 6 point game which means 2 FG to tie or a TD with EP to win. By making that decision, he forced the Bears to HAVE to convert the 2pt - which have (I just looked it up) a 31% success rate in the NFL this season.

Going for two is literally the correct play.

Math says you’ll get the 2 point conversion once in two tries.

If you get the first one then you can kick the Xp to win. If you miss the first, odds are you’re due for the 2nd to tie.

Analytics say it

No it doesn't. I looked it up. Teams are converting at only 31% on 2 pt conversions this season.

 

[GIADF]

Going for two is literally the correct play.

Math says you’ll get the 2 point conversion once in two tries.

If you get the first one then you can kick the Xp to win. If you miss the first, odds are you’re due for the 2nd to tie.

Analytics say it

I don’t think that is so black and white.

What is the Bears conversion rate under Flus for starters and the last 5-10 years?

I can’t for the life of me find an easy list of the Bears and 2pt conversions over the years.

 

[Romang67]

But it forced them to have to go for 2 at the end of game for no reason. If the Bears don't convert that 2pt conversion to make it 27-24, the game is effectively over. I could understand if the Bears were down 13 and going for two cut it to a 6 point game which means 2 FG to tie or a TD with EP to win. By making that decision, he forced the Bears to HAVE to convert the 2pt - which have (I just looked it up) a 31% success rate in the NFL this season.

The thing is that they only have to convert one of them. If they convert the first, they can win the game on the next TD.

31% is unusually low. It's normally just above 50%, which means that chances of succeeding on 1 of 2 (unless your offense sucks) are pretty good. To oversimplify it (because calculating probability of dependent events is a pain), in a season where the probability of succeeding is around 50%:

50% of the cases, you succeed on the first try, and you're ahead. One more TD wins you the game (in like 95% of cases or whatever your odds are of hitting an extra point).

In the remaining 50% of cases, you still succeed on 50% of cases, which takes it to OT, where you win in 50% of cases.

So in 50% of games, you win before OT. In 12.5% of cases, you win in OT. In 25% of cases, you lose in regulation. In 12.5% of cases, you lose in OT. If you kick 2 extra points, you reach OT in both cases, where you lose 50% of the time.

Bit of a back-of-the-napkin math, but concisely, being ahead is so much better than being tied and going into OT that it's worth risking losing outright.

________________________________________________________________________________

If the probability of success remains near 30%, that changes things. You only win in 30% of cases, lose in regulation in about 45% of cases, and still win or lose in OT in 12.5% of cases each.

Breakeven point is quite a bit lower than 50% success rate for 2-point conversion. It's a bit under 40%. At that point, you win in 40% of cases, lose in 36% of cases, and the rest goes to OT. 40% is incidentally where the Bears are on 2 point conversions this season (or maybe was before this game? website may not have updated)

 

[ClydeLee]

I'm sorry you want Flus to be conservative when he shouldn't have... that's a stance.

 

[GIADF]

It's normally just above 50%

Can you share where you can look at these numbers? Ideally by team by year.

I can’t find anything and am not going to go game by game, but am really curious to see what the Bears and specifically Flus teams come in at % wise.