Barkov going for next Selke?

[jonlin]

Looks to be in incredible shape even missed a few games cause injury

10gp 3g 14a 17p +7 FO% 61,2 CF% 61

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[ijuka]

His advanced stats don't look that impressive and his PDO is 1.084 with an insane 17.14 oish%.

Looking at the complete array of stats and considering both offense and defense, I'd say that Draisaitl is looking pretty good. Top of the line for most categories, and 24 points.

 

[Oddbob]

His advanced stats don't look that impressive and his PDO is 1.084 with an insane 17.14 oish%.

Looking at the complete array of stats and considering both offense and defense, I'd say that Draisaitl is looking pretty good. Top of the line for most categories, and 24 points.

Leon Draisaitl is not a Selke level player and not even close to it.

 

[ijuka]

Leon Draisaitl is not a Selke level player and not even close to it.

I'm just looking at the stats. All the advanced stats are top of the line, the drive towards the offensive zone from the defensive zone is extremely strong, and the counting stats are high-end as is the 5on5 goal differential with only .990 PDO.

For example, relative xGF% of +10.42 is really strong especially considering Oilers rank #2 in the league on that stat. If we look at the players above him for the raw xGF% stat: [Podkolzin, Martinook, Turcotte, Glass, Colton, Jarvis, Labanc], none of these have the name power to be a contender for any such award.

So Draisaitl ranks #8 league-wide in xGF%(min 10 games played) while having far more ice time than anyone above him.

Where does Barkov rank? Outside the top 50.

We would have to assume Barkov will somehow maintain his 17.14 oish% while Draisaitl has 6.59 oish%, which you could argue is even unsustainably low.

 

[hirawl]

Goes pretty much without saying and there's no contest etc. etc.

It's his and it's not even close to being his last.

 

[Oddbob]

I'm just looking at the stats. All the advanced stats are top of the line, the drive towards the offensive zone from the defensive zone is extremely strong, and the counting stats are high-end as is the 5on5 goal differential with only .990 PDO.

For example, relative xGF% of +10.42 is really strong especially considering Oilers rank #2 in the league on that stat. If we look at the players above him for the raw xGF% stat: [Podkolzin, Martinook, Turcotte, Glass, Colton, Jarvis, Labanc], none of these have the name power to be a contender for any such award.

So Draisaitl ranks #8 league-wide in xGF%(min 10 games played) while having far more ice time than anyone above him.

Where does Barkov rank? Outside the top 50.

We would have to assume Barkov will somehow maintain his 17.14 oish% while Draisaitl has 6.59 oish%, which you could argue is even unsustainably low.

This is why you can't just go with advanced stats. Watch them play and there is nothing that puts Draisaitl in the Selke category.

 

[thomast]

Draisaitl is heavily utilized on offence and doesen’t kill penalties. Hischier is my top pick for selke at this point. Draisaitl is playing much better D this year, but isn’t utilized defensively like other candidates to be called Selke frontrunner. Candidate? If Matthews was one last year, i don’t see why Draisaitl can’t become one. Selke voting can be pretty wild some years.

 

[BB88]

If Barkov plays enough games he should pretty easily take it

He was such a monster last year that people will remember and Cup win brought him some ++’s as well

 

[jonlin]

Where does Barkov rank? Outside the top 50.

Nice research. I suggest getting eyes and look at a panthers-game!

 

[sinDer]

I'm just looking at the stats. All the advanced stats are top of the line, the drive towards the offensive zone from the defensive zone is extremely strong, and the counting stats are high-end as is the 5on5 goal differential with only .990 PDO.

For example, relative xGF% of +10.42 is really strong especially considering Oilers rank #2 in the league on that stat. If we look at the players above him for the raw xGF% stat: [Podkolzin, Martinook, Turcotte, Glass, Colton, Jarvis, Labanc], none of these have the name power to be a contender for any such award.

So Draisaitl ranks #8 league-wide in xGF%(min 10 games played) while having far more ice time than anyone above him.

Where does Barkov rank? Outside the top 50.

We would have to assume Barkov will somehow maintain his 17.14 oish% while Draisaitl has 6.59 oish%, which you could argue is even unsustainably low.

Try watching games. It’s fun.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I'm just looking at the stats. All the advanced stats are top of the line, the drive towards the offensive zone from the defensive zone is extremely strong, and the counting stats are high-end as is the 5on5 goal differential with only .990 PDO.

For example, relative xGF% of +10.42 is really strong especially considering Oilers rank #2 in the league on that stat. If we look at the players above him for the raw xGF% stat: [Podkolzin, Martinook, Turcotte, Glass, Colton, Jarvis, Labanc], none of these have the name power to be a contender for any such award.

So Draisaitl ranks #8 league-wide in xGF%(min 10 games played) while having far more ice time than anyone above him.

Where does Barkov rank? Outside the top 50.

We would have to assume Barkov will somehow maintain his 17.14 oish% while Draisaitl has 6.59 oish%, which you could argue is even unsustainably low.

Using xGF for, as an argument for Selke, is odd at best.

 

[My3Sons]

These back and forths go pretty far afield of what it seems the voters look at. Like last season with the debate over Faber versus Bedard. The voting between the two was not particularly close despite all the stats that favored Faber's impact on the team actually winning as compared to Bedard. I'm sure some voters will look closely at things like deployment and expected goals percentage or per 60 ratios but I think for many it's just a reputation and points thing coupled with some element of team success. Right now it's probably Barkov's to lose and maybe Hischier is in second place.

 

[benfranklin]

His advanced stats don't look that impressive and his PDO is 1.084 with an insane 17.14 oish%.

Looking at the complete array of stats and considering both offense and defense, I'd say that Draisaitl is looking pretty good. Top of the line for most categories, and 24 points.

lol wut?!

 

[benfranklin]

These back and forths go pretty far afield of what it seems the voters look at. Like last season with the debate over Faber versus Bedard. The voting between the two was not particularly close despite all the stats that favored Faber's impact on the team actually winning as compared to Bedard. I'm sure some voters will look closely at things like deployment and expected goals percentage or per 60 ratios but I think for many it's just a reputation and points thing coupled with some element of team success. Right now it's probably Barkov's to lose and maybe Hischier is in second place.

Same with MacKinnon/Kucherov and the players confirmed it.

I cant find a season where voters went off xGF% at all. That is a ridiculous argument because it opens it up for zone starts, faceoff %, ignoring PK time, and criticizing coaching styles who push shots over high quality chances.

Carolina, I think we can all agree is the definition of flashy advanced stats and a death by a thousand paper cuts coaching style. They get the puck out of their zone and shoot from anywhere. Similar with Edmonton, except they have the two obvious high end finishers CAR doesnt.

Here is the top 50 xGF% players from 23-24 who played 750+ TOI. 21 of the 50 players came from CAR, EDM, or FLA. Yes there are good defensive forwards there, but c'mon 40%+ of the leagues best defensive forwards came from 3 of the 32 teams? Really?! Maybe, just maybe its their play style driving and skewing analytics.

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	CF%	FF%	xGF	xGA	xGF%	HDCF	HDCA	HDCF%	PDO	Off. Zone Faceoff %
Jordan Staal	CAR	C	80.00	993.98	63.41	62.03	49.84	29.75	62.62	247	127	66.04	0.943	43.55
Zach Hyman	EDM	L	80.00	1233.33	59.16	59.75	83.38	49.9	62.56	377	194	66.02	1.022	61.09
Connor McDavid	EDM	C	76.00	1233.25	59.45	59.53	81.12	49.96	61.88	365	199	64.72	1.009	62.36
Jesper Fast	CAR	R	73.00	820.65	63.67	61.99	41.47	25.91	61.54	197	107	64.8	0.966	51.61
Jordan Martinook	CAR	L	82.00	1053.48	61.82	60.65	50.25	32.16	60.98	238	141	62.8	0.96	45.25
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	EDM	C	80.00	1081.98	57.27	57.69	67.75	43.42	60.94	313	182	63.23	0.993	58.39
Aleksander Barkov	FLA	C	73.00	928.35	58.43	57.82	48.18	31.32	60.6	198	126	61.11	1.038	51.71
Conor Garland	VAN	R	82.00	1003.67	55.75	56.36	50.38	33.92	59.77	237	144	62.2	1.036	46.48
Jack Drury	CAR	C	74.00	790.90	60.9	59.94	35.69	24.11	59.68	138	104	57.02	0.987	61.56
Sam Reinhart	FLA	C	82.00	1060.97	57.61	57.05	51.39	35.37	59.23	203	141	59.01	1.025	51.61
Roope Hintz	DAL	C	80.00	997.47	56.45	56.46	49.43	34.12	59.16	218	136	61.58	1.009	52.87
Kevin Fiala	L.A	L	82.00	1144.97	56.21	58.06	56.38	39.23	58.97	212	157	57.45	0.99	50.63
Stefan Noesen	CAR	R	81.00	820.78	60.75	60.64	40.05	27.94	58.9	164	124	56.94	1.018	60.12
Wyatt Johnston	DAL	C	82.00	1072.72	54.82	54.7	55.99	39.78	58.47	242	168	59.02	0.998	52.34
Jason Robertson	DAL	L	82.00	1186.57	56.24	56.3	54.04	38.65	58.3	242	160	60.2	1.002	52.58
Jake Guentzel	CAR, PIT	C, L	67.00	1025.57	56.89	55.68	61	43.91	58.14	260	191	57.65	1.008	64.25
Leon Draisaitl	EDM	C	81.00	1256.70	55.62	55.45	74.67	53.81	58.12	324	215	60.11	1.024	55.73
Trevor Moore	L.A	L	82.00	1116.37	56.01	58.54	57.52	41.47	58.11	224	176	56	0.991	49.92
Teddy Blueger	VAN	C	68.00	831.18	52.43	53.89	40.85	29.54	58.04	204	129	61.26	0.997	41.24
Warren Foegele	EDM	L	82.00	1013.40	56.31	56.11	59.49	43.07	58	279	194	58.99	0.98	51.29
Tommy Novak	NSH	C	71.00	817.93	56.2	56.46	42.67	31.14	57.81	194	121	61.59	0.996	71.84
Seth Jarvis	CAR	C	81.00	1052.98	58.57	58.35	48.31	35.3	57.78	223	142	61.1	1.019	54.79
Matt Boldy	MIN	L	75.00	1041.85	53.97	54.38	50.09	36.97	57.54	231	155	59.84	1.005	54.89
Adam Lowry	WPG	C	81.00	1042.65	52.58	53.48	51.6	38.29	57.41	229	160	58.87	1.025	37.21
Evan Rodrigues	FLA	C	80.00	1007.00	58.27	57	48.83	36.28	57.37	206	154	57.22	1.027	53.91
Sam Bennett	FLA	C	69.00	899.42	57.64	54.96	49.53	37.11	57.17	225	177	55.97	1.023	59.45
Phillip Danault	L.A	C	78.00	1058.23	55.85	58.31	54.9	41.65	56.86	214	171	55.58	0.996	49.57
Carter Verhaeghe	FLA	C	76.00	1034.75	57.41	54.09	55.46	42.11	56.84	243	180	57.45	1.017	57.7
Nino Niederreiter	WPG	R	77.00	980.72	53.09	52.79	47.76	36.3	56.82	208	165	55.76	1.023	38.09
William Karlsson	VGK	C	70.00	852.90	51.31	53.3	40.34	30.7	56.79	159	123	56.38	1.016	50.92
Andrei Svechnikov	CAR	R	59.00	798.50	59.16	57.49	42.75	32.73	56.64	158	143	52.49	1.012	55.93
Nathan MacKinnon	COL	C	82.00	1386.38	56.55	56.24	73.45	56.23	56.64	341	240	58.69	1.019	66.13
Ryan McLeod	EDM	C	81.00	972.33	56.73	56.7	49.42	37.86	56.62	208	163	56.06	0.995	48.83
Ondrej Palat	N.J	L	71.00	929.85	54.88	54	49.35	37.91	56.56	202	163	55.34	0.997	49.09
Luke Evangelista	NSH	R	80.00	917.40	54.8	55.65	44.46	34.18	56.54	195	150	56.52	0.992	65.48
Jesper Bratt	N.J	L	82.00	1124.58	56.79	55.04	63.99	49.24	56.51	267	210	55.97	1.009	54.68
Auston Matthews	TOR	C	81.00	1241.18	54.46	55.77	64.93	50.17	56.41	319	222	58.96	1.018	58.72
Jesperi Kotkaniemi	CAR	C	79.00	907.25	59.17	58.62	47.55	36.91	56.3	181	168	51.86	0.981	60.41
Teuvo Teravainen	CAR	L	76.00	910.80	59.43	58.77	42.85	33.31	56.27	163	145	52.92	1.003	56.97
Jamie Benn	DAL	L	82.00	905.20	52.2	52.29	48.82	38.1	56.17	200	157	56.02	1.001	51.46
Kirill Kaprizov	MIN	L	75.00	1204.03	52.63	52.91	57.36	44.81	56.14	269	192	58.35	1.018	60.74
Garnet Hathaway	PHI	R	82.00	872.93	50.61	54.35	37.25	29.13	56.12	169	128	56.9	0.955	44.4
Tyler Bertuzzi	TOR	L	80.00	1117.92	53.68	53.26	60.53	47.35	56.11	286	208	57.89	1.001	58.1
Matthew Tkachuk	FLA	L	80.00	1035.85	57.54	54.14	57.89	45.41	56.04	274	204	57.32	1.018	61.27
Filip Forsberg	NSH	L	82.00	1154.75	53.77	54.05	61.05	48.22	55.87	261	201	56.49	1.015	61.06
Bryan Rust	PIT	R	62.00	899.90	52.97	52.33	55.76	44.34	55.7	236	179	56.87	0.996	58.75
Anders Lee	NYI	L	81.00	1086.73	50.7	52.41	57.81	46.04	55.67	267	204	56.69	1.008	55.01
Quinton Byfield	L.A	C, R	80.00	1072.92	54.58	54.25	46.95	37.5	55.6	207	157	56.87	1.028	51.21
Artemi Panarin	NYR	L	82.00	1259.58	56.61	56.18	67.28	53.96	55.5	296	230	56.27	1.003	80.17