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GDT: Avalanche vs Flames Monday 03/31/25 @6:30PM MNT (Emergency GDT) Ring of fire?

Who do you want in round 1?

  • Dallas

    Votes: 17 60.7%

  • Winnipeg

    Votes: 7 25.0%

  • Las Vegas

    Votes: 4 14.3%
  • Total voters
    28
chet1926 said:
I won't be shocked if St Louis catches us. I'm actually pretty positive they will if Bednar continues this f*** it attitude.

I think it's very possible we lose at least 4 of the last 7. LA and St Louis on the road are basically auto losses, Vegas at home will be a loss, them we probably throw away the CLB road game. We probably beat Chicago, Anaheim and Vancouver.

But if we go something like 2-5 and the Blues go 6-1 they'll pass us. And they very well could go 6-1 their schedule is extremely soft.
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I said this before (many times) but I really wouldn’t want us to go into the playoffs on a long win streak. There is often a let down when that happens. Losing few games and adversity isnt a bad thing right now. Fix whatever is wrong right now, then turn it up in the playoffs.

Although I don’t think there is anything wrong with the Avs. I just think they don’t care too much about the remaining regular season, and want to stay as healthy as possible. Nate for one, you can tell he’s just taking it easy, he played so much hockey all season carrying the team. I would even sit him for few remaining games
 
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shadow1 said:
IMO, Dallas's recent record is deceiving. I still have no idea how they won the Edmonton game (outshot 44-24) or the Calgary game (outshot 48-19). This board would be crapping their collective pants if the Avs were winning games while being outplayed that decisively.

I haven't loved every game, but the last time the Avalanche allowed 30 shots was 13 games ago. That was also the last time they were outshot (32-34), against the Sharks of all teams, in a game they won 7-3. Speed bumps aside, Colorado is rolling.

Since 2/26, Colorado and Dallas are both 12-2-2. St. Louis is 13-2-1. I think Dallas's record is a significant overperformance, but you be the judge:

GF/GPGA/GPxGF%SF/gpSA/gpSCF%Shooting%
COL3.88 (2nd)1.88 (1st)54.4 (3rd)30.8 (5th)24.4 (3rd)55.1 (3rd)12.6 (9th)
DAL3.75 (4th)2.38 (7th)47.2 (24th)24.3 (30th)32.4 (32nd)47.6 (24th)15.4 (1st)
STL3.81 (3rd)2.13 (2nd)54.1 (5th)27.1 (19th)23.2 (1st)52.2 (8th)14.1 (2nd)
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Some graphs (cumulative expected goal differential on 5v5):

bluesgd.png

colgd.png

dalgd.png

Dallas are trending down while we and the Blues have trended up.
Avs are up by 10+ on both.

xG differential isn't everything, but generally you can say that line going up means a "deserved win" and line going down means a "deserved loss".
 
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Landeskog - Mackinnon - Nichushkin
Lehkonen - Nelson - Necas
Colton - Coyle - Drouin
Kelly - Drury - O'Connor
Kiviranta, Wood, Vesey
 
chet1926 said:
Lol guy scored like 140 last year and was consistent throughout the year.

29 is banged up and probably exhausted from having to carry the team 2/3rds of the season before CMac finally got him some help. When you are getting double and triple teamed every night because there was no fear of any other forward, it takes a toll.

Not to mention he now has to deal with revolving door linemates who basically never finish any of his setups now. He had a constant linemate for years who was a shooter, now he doesn't. It's problem that the Avs will have to address at some point.
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Ya I just looked it up he had 17 points in his last 10 games last year so definitely did not slow down.
 
Yeah, flipping the switch for the playoffs is surprisingly common over the years. Even aside from the Avs.

It's a whole new season and the extra few days off gives players some extra rest, some extra practice time, and a mental reset.

But they're not playing that bad either. They've lost two games in a row where they were the better team, after going 12-2 previously. Aside from dropping the last couple, they've played their best hockey of the season.

I'm not too worried about the lines or the SO choices, even if they don't make much sense. I think Bednar has been trying to get Val to click with Nelson and Necas and form a heavy line with size that's tough to handle down low. Hasn't worked so far, so maybe it's time to try something else.

What I am a bit worried about though, because it's been a problem beyond this season, is their shooting accuracy. It's just not where it should be, and when they lose, that tends to be one of the main reasons. They need to improve this.

They didn't have this problem in the 22 playoffs. They had a killer instinct, and when they dominated games they ran up the score, instead of sitting at 2-0 or 1-1.

They averaged 4.25 goals/gm in the playoffs in 22. In 20 games, they had 5+ goals 8 times. Twice with 5 goals, twice with 6 goals, three times with 7, and once with 8.
 
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Pokecheque said:
Well, he did kinda. He was pretty much burned out by the 2nd round. 9 points in 5 games against Winnipeg, 5 in 6 (which still isn't bad, but nowhere near his usual standard) against Dallas.
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I mean 14pts in 11 games isn't exactly crap... Especially when the other team is triple teaming you every time you touch the puck because they had no fear of any other forward after 13 got busted again.
 
That 2022 team lost four playoff games. FOUR. They swept two of their four series and only lost two games each in the other two. It's one of the most dominant runs in hockey history. There's never been a team that's swept every round (conversely, no team has ever played to game seven in all four rounds either). The current record is Edmonton in 1988 who did it in 18 games, so they only lost two.
 
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The Avs are 7 points up on the Blues with 7 games to play.

People here have resigned themselves to not catching Dallas but expect St. Louis to catch us?

Lol.

If the Blues finish the season 6-1-0 all the Avs need to do is go 2-3-2 and they'd still be ahead of them.

St. Louis is not catching us.
 
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Pokecheque said:
That 2022 team lost four playoff games. FOUR. They swept two of their four series and only lost two games each in the other two. It's one of the most dominant runs in hockey history. There's never been a team that's swept every round (conversely, no team has ever played to game seven in all four rounds either). The current record is Edmonton in 1988 who did it in 18 games, so they only lost two.
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I feel like the Avs ability to generate chances, especially since the deadline, isn't too far off 22, but their ability to bury their chances in recent years is.

This applies to guys that were on that 22 team like Nate, Cale, Mikko (while he was here), Val, and Lehky and the new guys hit more posts and miss more nets than the other guys in 22 as well. It's a team wide issue.

Aside from that, I think the main difference between 22 and now is the ability of the D core to defend, and not make big mistakes and turnovers, though they've been much better lately.

They should be able to find a middle ground from their ability to bury their chances this year, to their ability in 22. If they can find that, and other things go well, they've got a good shot to win again.
 
dahrougem2 said:
The Avs are 7 points up on the Blues with 7 games to play.

People here have resigned themselves to not catching Dallas but expect St. Louis to catch us?

Lol.

If the Blues finish the season 6-1-0 all the Avs need to do is go 2-3-2 and they'd still be ahead of them.

St. Louis is not catching us.
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We probably have to lose like 5 of the last 7 games in regulation for Blues or the Wild to catch us and assuming Blues and Wild win majority of their remaining games
 
chet1926 said:
Lol guy scored like 140 last year and was consistent throughout the year.

29 is banged up and probably exhausted from having to carry the team 2/3rds of the season before CMac finally got him some help. When you are getting double and triple teamed every night because there was no fear of any other forward, it takes a toll.

Not to mention he now has to deal with revolving door linemates who basically never finish any of his setups now. He had a constant linemate for years who was a shooter, now he doesn't. It's problem that the Avs will have to address at some point.
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It’s just a trend with Mack. It doesn’t really change anything about how I view him as a player. Theres just been seasons where he’s slowed a bit before the playoffs. To which he then dominates again.
 
The Abusement Park said:
It’s just a trend with Mack. It doesn’t really change anything about how I view him as a player. Theres just been seasons where he’s slowed a bit before the playoffs. To which he then dominates again.
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Which if the games don't matter much, I think is the optimal strategy for top players.

Recharge a bit, and lessen your intensity during games to save not only your physical energy, but your mental energy for the playoffs. You're going from an 82 game grind to a 16W grind that's even more taxing back to back.

As long as you can flip the switch back on, which so far (knock on wood) hasn't been an issue for him.
 
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chet1926 said:
Lol guy scored like 140 last year and was consistent throughout the year.

29 is banged up and probably exhausted from having to carry the team 2/3rds of the season before CMac finally got him some help. When you are getting double and triple teamed every night because there was no fear of any other forward, it takes a toll.

Not to mention he now has to deal with revolving door linemates who basically never finish any of his setups now. He had a constant linemate for years who was a shooter, now he doesn't. It's problem that the Avs will have to address at some point.
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Last 2 seasons Nate probably didn’t think they had what it takes to go far in the playoffs just like everyone else knew. This year he truly believes they have what it takes, and he even said it himself that the team staying healthy is very important to have success in the playoffs. I won’t be surprised if we see the Avs lose few more games before the playoffs where players aren’t trying hard to stay healthy
 
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Pokecheque said:
That 2022 team lost four playoff games. FOUR. They swept two of their four series and only lost two games each in the other two. It's one of the most dominant runs in hockey history. There's never been a team that's swept every round (conversely, no team has ever played to game seven in all four rounds either). The current record is Edmonton in 1988 who did it in 18 games, so they only lost two.
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They should have only lost 2. Kuemper doesnt shit himself in Game 5 vs STL and Game 5 vs Tampa the Avs are 16-2. Simply incredible.
 
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dahrougem2 said:
The Avs are 7 points up on the Blues with 7 games to play.

People here have resigned themselves to not catching Dallas but expect St. Louis to catch us?

Lol.

If the Blues finish the season 6-1-0 all the Avs need to do is go 2-3-2 and they'd still be ahead of them.

St. Louis is not catching us.
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Blues will catch the Avs if Mackinnon continues crying when something doesnt go his way in a game.
 
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