Friedman: Avalanche are looking at Blackwood and Gibson

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Gibson would be my preference as an Avs fan, mostly because I think he has the higher upside.


Curious what the ask would be @ 50% retention, or retained down to $4M.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Gibson would be my preference as an Avs fan, mostly because I think he has the higher upside.


Curious what the ask would be @ 50% retention, or retained down to $4M.

I don’t think we’d be expecting much


At this point id be happy with
A warm body goalie + 2nd
Not that I think gibson is terrible… I think he’ll find success in a new situation…. Just not a lot of value to trade from

 

[FiveTacos]

Gibson would be my preference as an Avs fan, mostly because I think he has the higher upside.

Curious what the ask would be @ 50% retention, or retained down to $4M.

If they're not taking back a bad contract for someone they don't need, I don't think it'd require anything crazy. The Ducks don't need a D or G, they're not realistically gonna get back a scoring liner ... but a good bottom 6'er seems reasonable. Got anyone (vet or prospect) who can win faceoffs and kill penalties?

Or a pick that could be flipped into that bottom 6'er.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

I don’t think we’d be expecting much


At this point id be happy with
A warm body goalie + 2nd
Not that I think gibson is terrible… I think he’ll find success in a new situation…. Just not a lot of value to trade from

If they're not taking back a bad contract for someone they don't need, I don't think it'd require anything crazy. The Ducks don't need a D or G, they're not realistically gonna get back a scoring liner ... but a good bottom 6'er seems reasonable. Got anyone (vet or prospect) who can win faceoffs and kill penalties?

Or a pick that could be flipped into that bottom 6'er.

As an Avs fan, I'd do:

G Alexandar Georgiev ($3.4m cap hit, $2.9m actual salary, UFA at year end)
2025 or 2026 COL 2nd round pick (whatever Anaheim prefers)

for

G John Gibson @ 50% cap hit ($3.2m cap hit annually for 3 years)

Basically, Avs would need to dump Georgiev to afford Gibson even at 50% but Ducks get out of Georgiev at the end of the year. It's essentially a 2nd round pick for that retention over 3 years.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

As an Avs fan, I'd do:

G Alexandar Georgiev ($3.4m cap hit, $2.9m actual salary, UFA at year end)
2025 or 2026 COL 2nd round pick (whatever Anaheim prefers)

for

G John Gibson @ 50% cap hit ($3.2m cap hit annually for 3 years)

Basically, Avs would need to dump Georgiev to afford Gibson even at 50% but Ducks get out of Georgiev at the end of the year. It's essentially a 2nd round pick for that retention over 3 years.

That’s kinda where my head was at

Prob 25 tho, as we traded ours in the gauthier trade.

 

[PAZ]

That’s kinda where my head was at

Prob 25 tho, as we traded ours in the gauthier trade.

I could see Anaheim waiting a bit longer to see if Gibson can improve his numbers. If that's the case, I think it would end up a conditional 1st. Something like if the Avs make it to the WCF and Gibson plays x amount of games, Anaheim gets 26' 1st or else it defaults to a '25 2nd.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I could see Anaheim waiting a bit longer to see if Gibson can improve his numbers. If that's the case, I think it would end up a conditional 1st. Something like if the Avs make it to the WCF and Gibson plays x amount of games, Anaheim gets 26' 1st or else it defaults to a '25 2nd.

That’s fair too…. On the other side of the coin the team isn’t great…. And might be better to take the 2nd if it’s there, rather than risk his numbers crashing behind this team.

 

[FiveTacos]

I could see Anaheim waiting a bit longer to see if Gibson can improve his numbers. If that's the case, I think it would end up a conditional 1st. Something like if the Avs make it to the WCF and Gibson plays x amount of games, Anaheim gets 26' 1st or else it defaults to a '25 2nd.

Where the Ducks are at, if they can't get back immediate help, or a high enough pick to make them want to jump on it, I'd take a conditional future 1st. If the rebuild goes well, that 1st in a few years might be valuable deadline trade material. And if Gibson's helping the Avs go deep in the playoffs, then they won't care about giving up a 1st. If he doesn't play well and it's just a 2nd or 3rd ... well that's still something.

Problem with conditional picks that far out though, most GMs won't take it since they might not be around to reap the rewards. So while it might make sense from a big picture perspective, you don't see it very often.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

As an Avs fan, I'd do:

G Alexandar Georgiev ($3.4m cap hit, $2.9m actual salary, UFA at year end)
2025 or 2026 COL 2nd round pick (whatever Anaheim prefers)

for

G John Gibson @ 50% cap hit ($3.2m cap hit annually for 3 years)

Basically, Avs would need to dump Georgiev to afford Gibson even at 50% but Ducks get out of Georgiev at the end of the year. It's essentially a 2nd round pick for that retention over 3 years.

Yeah I'd easily do this.

Honestly I was expecting to have to move the 2026 1st to get Gibson at 50%. That's $7M in retained money which is in theory a 1st+ based on prior precedent.

But I guess factoring in the fact he's negative value before the retention balances it out a bit.

If they're not taking back a bad contract for someone they don't need, I don't think it'd require anything crazy. The Ducks don't need a D or G, they're not realistically gonna get back a scoring liner ... but a good bottom 6'er seems reasonable. Got anyone (vet or prospect) who can win faceoffs and kill penalties?

Or a pick that could be flipped into that bottom 6'er.

Miles Wood maybe?

 

[Rec T]

It's essentially a 2nd round pick for that retention over 3 years.

Holy crap that's horrible for Anaheim. You really expect them to pay 6.5 million for a 2nd round pick? (this year of Gibson/Georgiev is essentially a wash & then two years of retention plus use of 1/3rd of their retention slots for three years). Maybe just a 2nd rounder if there's no retention (& yes I know, the dollars won't work that way but that's not really Anaheim's problem unless they're desperate to move him).

Provided he's not being pissy/lousy attitude about being a 1B/backup at the moment, the Ducks are far better off just keeping him & hoping he gets better & then trading him at the deadline (if he'll waive - something he'd have to do here too), revisiting it next year, or just keeping him through his contract.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Holy crap that's horrible for Anaheim. You really expect them to pay 6.5 million for a 2nd round pick? (this year of Gibson/Georgiev is essentially a wash & then two years of retention plus use of 1/3rd of their retention slots for three years). Maybe just a 2nd rounder if there's no retention (& yes I know, the dollars won't work that way but that's not really Anaheim's problem unless they're desperate to move him).

Provided he's not being pissy/lousy attitude about being a 1B/backup at the moment, the Ducks are far better off just keeping him & hoping he gets better & then trading him at the deadline (if he'll waive - something he'd have to do here too), revisiting it next year, or just keeping him through his contract.

I dunno, a Ducks fan seemed okay with it.

Yeah, well, YOU’RE HORRIBLE FOR ANAHEIM!

 

[QuizGuy66]

Holy crap that's horrible for Anaheim. You really expect them to pay 6.5 million for a 2nd round pick? (this year of Gibson/Georgiev is essentially a wash & then two years of retention plus use of 1/3rd of their retention slots for three years). Maybe just a 2nd rounder if there's no retention (& yes I know, the dollars won't work that way but that's not really Anaheim's problem unless they're desperate to move him).

Provided he's not being pissy/lousy attitude about being a 1B/backup at the moment, the Ducks are far better off just keeping him & hoping he gets better & then trading him at the deadline (if he'll waive - something he'd have to do here too), revisiting it next year, or just keeping him through his contract.

Need to have a chart that shows the dollar value teams put on pics when they facilitate trades by retaining a chunk of salary. Not sure though if there are any other examples for 2nd rounders. There are for later picks like 4-7. I know it was more $ than I expected.

 

[Perratrooper]

Need to have a chart that shows the dollar value teams put on pics when they facilitate trades by retaining a chunk of salary. Not sure though if there are any other examples for 2nd rounders. There are for later picks like 4-7. I know it was more $ than I expected.

According to this article https://thehockeynews.com/news/what...a-trade-an-online-tool-can-help-figure-it-out

The pick value of multi-year retention at $3m is in the range of a late first round pick. So if the Avs start with a first it may get the conversation started. With that being said, factors such as age, quality of the player, actual cap hit, etc. all factor into what the final value is.

If the Ducks are willing to take on Georgiev and retain on Gibson’s contract I would imagine a first + b prospect + late pick might get close.

 

[FiveTacos]

I dunno, a Ducks fan seemed okay with it.

I think part of it is that a lot of fans just want Gibson to be rewarded for sticking through some tough years. And the team is in a weird spot of the rebuild, where they don't need goalies or defense, and everyone knows he's not bringing back a top 6 forward. So that leaves good bottom 6ers or picks.

But he's not wrong, in that taking back Georgiev and retaining 50% is effectively like 100% retention for a year (plus they likely have to pay a pick to get someone else to take Georgiev in a cap dump). Then at 50% retention, Gibson would project as the 32nd highest AAV goalie next year ... essentially bottom rate starter money. That's almost no risk, and might be worth a bit more than a 2nd. I would think if they just hung onto him, two deadlines from now they could get a pick for him as a rental, so there's little cost to the Ducks for riding it out.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Georgiev + Wood + 2026 1st for Gibson @50%

 

[Fantast100]

Georgiev for Gibson truly.

 

[Saskatoon]

It's going to be Blackwood but not because he is better. Teams love guys on expiring contracts.

For what it's worth I think he will be a perfectly acceptable goalie on a good team.

 

[Perratrooper]

Georgiev + Wood + 2026 1st for Gibson @50%

I think every Avs fan would jump on this in a second, but I wonder what Duck’s fans thoughts would be.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I think every Avs fan would jump on this in a second, but I wonder what Duck’s fans thoughts would be.

I think its pretty reasonable value.

They apparently want a bottom 6 veteran type of forward, Wood would be exactly that for them. His $2.5M is probably close to fair value, 4 years is a long term but that's also not necessarily a bad thing for a team like the Ducks. Gives them some stability down the depth charts over the next few years while they hope to get better.

Georgiev is a dump, but his real $$ for this year is only $2.9M, presumably this type of trade likely isn't happening until like Christmas at the earliest, so at that point the season is about 40% through which means more like $1.75M of cap dump $ for George. Realistically the deal probably wouldn't happen until much later as well anyway.

Gibson at full cap hit is a negative value asset right now I think we'd all agree. At 50% retention he probably gets close to neutral in value. So then you have to pay the Ducks for the ~$8-8.5M of real $$ they retain on his contract for 2.5 more years + taking Georgiev as a 0.5 year dump. I would say a 1st round pick is fair compensation for that based on previous precedent set over the years combined with the now increasing salary cap.

 

[LeBrun is a Clown]

Marner?

Not really, Gibsons named had popped up since 2016, a year after Mitch was drafted, when there was speculation whether the ducks would roll with Gibby or Freddy and trade the other. Obviously, they traded the latter but even after that Servalli, Friedman, among others have mentioned him before.