Tennis: Australian Open 2025

[kihei]

Medvedev hasn't been right since his shoulder injury last year which nagged him for a long time and seems to still have a lasting impact on his serve which hasn't been the same in a long time. Great tournament for young gunslingers like Tien moseying into town and either beating the big stars or scaring the hell out of them.

 

[kihei]

I went to sleep in the middle of the fifth before Fonseca fell apart. People were saying this guy might be the third best in the world right now. That was what they were discussing on ESPN. This was the first time I’ve seen him play. I thought he looked good for a player his age. Like I believe in that he’s a better prospect for the future than Mensik, Shang, Tien, Fils, Michelsen, all the younger guys from 18-20, but I didn’t see an obvious future top 2-3 player and slam winner. Then again, I didn’t see that out of Sinner. He eventually got there.

Maybe Fonseca will, but I can’t say with confidence yet that he’ll be better than a player like Tsitsipas, Rublev, Rune, Zverev, Kyrgios, Ruud that are perpetual disappointments and more was probably expected out of over the years. You just never know, unless it’s abundantly clear as it was for Alcaraz. They don’t all go the way of Sinner from where Fonseca is right now, and it’s definitely crazy to say he’s the third best in the world when he couldn’t beat Sonego.

Are you sure you heard that right? Who was the idiot that claimed Fonseca was the third best player in the world right now? He's not even the third best >20 yet. So who was this guy?

 

[kihei]

Just saw it. She’s psycho.

Are you getting cranky in your dotage? I thought it was worth a good chuckle.

 

[kihei]

After being little more than cannon fodder for the first two sets, and looking like Eeyore doing it, Borges takes the third set breaker from Alcaraz, who in the latter stages of the set seemed a little frustrated that Nuno kept hanging in there.

Carlos closes it out quickly 6-2, complete with some very entertaining shot making. This frustration when things aren't going his way, though, Sinner doesn't have that chink in his armour.

 

[kihei]

Having vanquished Felix from two sets down, could Davidovitch Fokina do it again? Down two sets to none versus Mensik, Alejandro saves two match points and wins the third set breaker. Mensik is showing signs of fatigue. Endurance could be a problem. Not surprising, really.

Sidenote: ADF does this five set thing a lot. He has already played in 15 five setters during his GS career, starting in 2019.

ADF takes the fourth set 6-4, as Mensik continues to fade.

ADF completes his 16th five-setter and wins it going away, 6-2. Despite all the long matches, this is the first time that he has come back from two sets down in back to back matches.

 

[kihei]

Bad news for Naomi fans and tennis fans in general. Osaka loses a first set breaker to Bencic and then retires from the match. Possibly an abdominal strain.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Are you sure you heard that right? Who was the idiot that claimed Fonseca was the third best player in the world right now? He's not even the third best >20 yet. So who was this guy?

Rennae Stubbs said something to the effect of “people are discussing Fonseca as the 3rd best player in the draw” and then they want on to discuss this topic (they didn’t exactly shoot it down as insane). I believe Darren Cahill (Sinner’s coach) was the other pundit on the panel for that segment.

 

[VaporTrail]

Does anyone know if the net camera survived the Medvedev beating ?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

That impending Carlos Novak QF's looks so good but I think Lehecka will give Novak a good run in the R16.

Kyrgios is a jerk. Of course the crowd was cheering for the Australian girl, how is that new? Collins has shown over and over again that she’s an ass hat and that performance at the end was embarrassing

I mean Novak does the same exact shit, lol. Draper did the same exact thing v Kokkinakis with the Australian crowd, can't be pulling out double standards with the men and women because you don't like Collins lol

 

[kihei]

Rennae Stubbs said something to the effect of “people are discussing Fonseca as the 3rd best player in the draw” and then they want on to discuss this topic (they didn’t exactly shoot it down as insane). I believe Darren Cahill (Sinner’s coach) was the other pundit on the panel for that segment.

Unless she was referring specifically to his quarter of the draw after the first round--her only arguable case--she should be retired to pasture somewhere.

 

[kihei]

I went to sleep in the middle of the fifth before Fonseca fell apart. People were saying this guy might be the third best in the world right now. That was what they were discussing on ESPN. This was the first time I’ve seen him play. I thought he looked good for a player his age. Like I believe in that he’s a better prospect for the future than Mensik, Shang, Tien, Fils, Michelsen, all the younger guys from 18-20, but I didn’t see an obvious future top 2-3 player and slam winner. Then again, I didn’t see that out of Sinner. He eventually got there.

Maybe Fonseca will, but I can’t say with confidence yet that he’ll be better than a player like Tsitsipas, Rublev, Rune, Zverev, Kyrgios, Ruud that are perpetual disappointments and more was probably expected out of over the years. You just never know, unless it’s abundantly clear as it was for Alcaraz. They don’t all go the way of Sinner from where Fonseca is right now, and it’s definitely crazy to say he’s the third best in the world when he couldn’t beat Sonego.

Now that we have Stubbs out of the way, let's take a closer look at this.

Of course, at the moment we can't know for sure about anything. No one can say Fonseca will be a better player than any of the guys you list. But there are reasons to think that he might be. One could easily argue that right now, at 18, he is certainly a comparable player to those guys at 18. Here is each of their rankings going into the Australian Open at 18.

Ruud 217
Tsitsipas 206
Rublev 185
Krygios 183
Mensik 142 (just throwing him in)
Fonseca 112 (now up to 99)
Rune 99
Zverev 82

So he is clearly in the mix. He also lacks a lot of that group's weaknesses: Ruud (backhand), Tsitsipas (backhand), Rublev (variety). Krygios (head). To me, his most apt comparisons are Rune and Zverev. Zverev looked great at 18, except he didn't have a volley and he could be frustratingly passive when he should press the issue. Neither are problems for Fonseca. Also, Zverev is probably the second biggest head case on that list. Not a problem for Fonseca, either who possesses the elite skills but not the self-limiting flaws.

I think Rune is the best comparison at the moment. Holger definitely flirted with first tier status before his extended slump. His ongoing coaching situation may be his Achilles heel. Fonseca possesses many of the same skills, but is more intelligently aggressive than Rune, and doesn't have a dysfunctional relationship with his parents. Plus, he has potentially a more killer backhand than any of those guys, save Krygios. I don't think Fonseca is a sure thing to enter tier one, but I do think he is the best bet since Carlos.

As for his loss to Sonego, I wouldn't read too much into that. Let's see how far Fonseca moves up in the rankings by the end of the year. I predicted he will break into the top fifty this year which would be immense for a guy playing his first full year on the ATP tour. If he has a flaw, it's probably endurance (he looked like he was getting winded by the second set with Sonego before coming back to somehow take the fourth set). Exact same problem with Mensik last night against ADF. They are young and they will get fitter and stronger.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Now that we have Stubbs out of the way, let's take a closer look at this.

Of course, at the moment we can't know for sure about anything. No one can say Fonseca will be a better player than any of the guys you list. But there are reasons to think that he might be. One could easily argue that right now, at 18, he is certainly a comparable player to those guys at 18. Here is each of their rankings going into the Australian Open at 18.

Ruud 217
Tsitsipas 206
Rublev 185
Krygios 183
Mensik 142 (just throwing him in)
Fonseca 112 (now up to 99)
Rune 99
Zverev 82

So he is clearly in the mix. He also lacks a lot of that group's weaknesses: Ruud (backhand), Tsitsipas (backhand), Rublev (variety). Krygios (head). To me, his most apt comparisons are Rune and Zverev. Zverev looked great at 18, except he didn't have a volley and he could be frustratingly passive when he should press the issue. Neither are problems for Fonseca. Also, Zverev is probably the second biggest head case on that list. Not a problem for Fonseca, either who possesses the elite skills but not the self-limiting flaws.

I think Rune is the best comparison at the moment. Holger definitely flirted with first tier status before his extended slump. His ongoing coaching situation may be his Achilles heel. Fonseca possesses many of the same skills, but is more intelligently aggressive than Rune, and doesn't have a dysfunctional relationship with his parents. Plus, he has potentially a more killer backhand than any of those guys, save Krygios. I don't think Fonseca is a sure thing to enter tier one, but I do think he is the best bet since Carlos.

As for his loss to Sonego, I wouldn't read too much into that. Let's see how far Fonseca moves up in the rankings by the end of the year. I predicted he will break into the top fifty this year which would be immense for a guy playing his first full year on the ATP tour. If he has a flaw, it's probably endurance (he looked like he was getting winded by the second set with Sonego before coming back to somehow take the fourth set). Exact same problem with Mensik last night against ADF. They are young and they will get fitter and stronger.

Good review. Only thing I’d add is that some of these younger guys seem too good to miss and then we start learning more about their flaws. I think Fonseca looks like he’s on a very good path, but as we see him through a full season or into some key matchups against top players as he starts getting towards the latter rounds of tournaments, we might get a better idea of where he struggles that isn’t evident from the small sample he’s had in the spotlight.