I don’t think a Matthews for Pettersson would be a trade we would win on a number of fronts ranging from offensive upside, prestige, etc. But Pettersson for Marner would be a slam dunk.
I dunno. For starters, Pettersson's cap hit is likely going to be in the Tkachuk (9.5) to Pastrnak (11) range with a long-term deal. I'd say in between, so maybe 10.25. And that's likely on a 7-8 year deal, for a player who can flirt with 90-100+ points every year.
The only thing Matthews currently does better than Pettersson is
score goals. Matthews, a few years ago, was a more relentless and aggressive puck hound, but that has tampered off quite a bit. Pettersson is also a better passer -- he's among the best in the world.
I do think Matthews clearly has more marquee value and his offensive "upside" is a bit higher.
But how much higher really? At best, Matthews is a 60-50-110 guy and Pettersson is a 40-65-105 guy
(had 39 goals and 102pts. this year).
When you factor in Matthews is like likely to demand 13.5 to 14 mil per year on
less term than Pettersson, a potential swap looks better and better. That 3+ mil cap hit difference is huge when we're already scrambling to add good depth.
All of this said, I'm basing this on my expectation that Matthews is still focused on making every penny and will not be willing to sign for MacKinnon money (12.6). Even that is 2+ more than what Pettersson will likely make but it will show us a side of Matthews we absolutely need to see --
putting the team first for once. If we're talking about Matthews vs. Pettersson at the same salary and term, no, I don't trade 34 for him.