Man, this was my gut reaction for a few years as well, but I think there's a ton of gray area with Matthews tbh.
Let's curb the actual dollars and cents for a moment and look at Matthews the person and player. Is he truly the iconic cornerstone type that winning organizations hitch their wagon to if they want to win something significant? Or is he more sizzle than steak like a Thornton, Tavares, Giroux, or Huberdeau? I'm trying to look at this in a very unbiased, objective way.
The good with Auston Matthews:
- He has shown to be an elite goal scorer over the years
- He won a Calder, 2 Rockets, and a Hart, which is impressive
- He is a big bodied, legit no.1 centerman
- He hasn't been a headache off the ice and seems like a great kid and role model
- He has marquee value, sells tickets, and draws fans
- His lethal shot means the Leafs usually are in most games because he can break a game open
- He is an original Leafs pick
- The fans and media love him, almost to the point where he's above criticism
The bad with Auston Matthews:
- He is coming off a down year and more injuries
- He has once again disappointed in the playoffs
- His career playoff PPG dips from 1.14 to 0.88 and his goals p82 dip from 52 to 38
- Outside of 2021-22, he hasn't consistently shown the same fire and hustle as he did early on
- He is currently overpaid for his contributions to the team, especially the post season
- He is likely going to demand above league max on his next deal which will prohibit the Leafs
- History tells us his priorities place his personal contracts above team success
- We have a 7 year sample size of him not being able to elevate his game in the playoffs
- He is not a fan of confrontation or battling in the grimy areas on the ice
- He doesn't appear to be a dedicated freak like Crosby or MacKinnon who hate losing
- His demeanor comes off as very spoiled and entitled (but this is just my perception)
Unlike some of the other megastars in the game, I think Matthews has his share of warts that have a cascading effect throughout the entire organization. The biggest wart appears to be his prioritization of draining max money from the Leafs on his terms. And that tells me that, at his core, he is not a team player who cares about team success. It's all about him. He also seems very content with losing in the playoffs, which is a horrible sign.
Yes, he is a gifted talent. Yes, we are certainly a better team with Matthews than without him. Yes, he still has a chance to reset the culture, leave money on the table for the betterment of the team, and lead by example. But there is a price and a breaking point the Leafs need to consider. Matthews simply isn't McDavid, MacKinnon, let alone Gretzky, Lemieux, etc. There comes a point where the Leafs need to put their foot down and say, "No, Auston, we can no longer simply give people everything they ask for and hope to win a Stanley Cup." This is a fact.
I think your proposed 13.4 x 6 is a hair short of where they will ultimately end (13.75 x 3) and I'm being completely honest now that I believe it will be a mistake because it solidifies to me that Matthews doesn't care about winning a Cup. Which means we're going to relive more of the same, year after year, perhaps worse if we need to cut other impact players for financial reasons.
I really wish Matthews would take this opportunity to step up, lead this club, and agree to a 12.6 x 6 year deal that sets the tone for Marner, Nylander, and others. It's less about the actual "amount" than it is about leading by example and resetting the culture by showing the world you want to remain a Leaf and be a big part of the solution.
