News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[Boxscore]

Do you really think Auston Matthews Cares about the Leafs success (yes, he would love it), but I don’t think the Leafs success takes precedence over Auston’s financial success.

You asked me why he should. My response was looking through the lens of a player who values his situation in Toronto and wants to balance team success with monetary gain. But, maybe you have the correct (not right) answer above. Which has been one of my stances all along... if Matthews is indeed the type of person you are referencing above, is that the make of player who can lead the Leafs to a Cup? Based on my experiences with human beings, extremely self-centered people are the least likely to sacrifice and put the team / company / family first when the chips are down. I think that mentality carries over into playoff wars.

That said, let's be crystal clear here -- nobody wants to see the Leafs take advantage of, or short-change, Auston Matthews. Fans want to see a win-win deal that pays Matthews a boat load of money while having enough left over to pay the rest of the core and add better depth pieces to help Auston and the other players win a Cup. This is not an attack on Matthews... this should be a great relationship... he just needs to take this opportunity to do his part instead of making the situation worse due to his own greed.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Elaborate

A lot more factors in to PPG ranks for top players than league scoring levels and scoring difficulty. League-wide game state distributions, injuries to top players, usage changes, strategy changes, the abundance of top talent within the league, etc. Using rank also removes all context of level of disparity and separation. It is a bad way to evaluate scoring levels and difficulty of scoring.

There's a reason you stopped at 50 and used those specific time periods. Because the 11% difference between #1 in PPG between their respective pre-signing periods drops to 9% to 7% to 4$ to 2%, etc. as you keep going down the ladder. But again, you're focused on the wrong part of the post in the first place. Actually, you focused in on the least relevant parts of both of my posts to you. Here is the rest:

Through their ELCs up to point of signing, Matthews was way, way, way closer to McDavid than Eichel.

Points per game
McDavid - 1.17
Matthews - 0.98
Eichel - 0.80

Primary Points per game
McDavid - 0.83
Matthews - 0.83
Eichel - 0.63

5v5 P/60
McDavid - 2.83
Matthews - 2.63
Eichel - 1.60

5v5 P1/60
Matthews - 2.27
McDavid - 2.18
Eichel - 1.26

PP P/60
Matthews - 6.47
McDavid - 6.44
Eichel - 6.30

PP P1/60
Matthews - 5.06
Eichel - 4.76
McDavid - 3.61

And this is how their contracts look under the same 79.5m cap.

Eichel (valuation) - 10.6m x 8 years
Matthews (valuation) - 11.6m x 5 years
McDavid (post-discount) - 13.25m x 8 years
McDavid (valuation) - 14.05m x 8 years

That section you quoted is the least relevant part anyway. It's just there to preemptively counter common bad arguments. It's also important to remember that by exclusively raw points, McDavid is arguably the best top end post-ELC contract ever. That's why McDavid gets used in the first place, and why people try so hard to ignore everything except raw points. Considering context and looking even just a little bit deeper (like teams and agents would), you realize how close they really were, and how normal Matthews' contract really was relative to McDavid and the history of post-ELC contracts.

 

[notbias]

Yeah I have no idea how reliable most of these media guys are so ... I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

I had a quick peek at the link, the most concerning part for me is this
One of the real considerations that they have here while they embark on this path is; first off they're not in any rush to do it and wanna see a full view of the chess board and what Brad Treliving has assembled. That includes what happens with William Nylander and how that's dealt with."

He's the captain, and IMO he needs to sign before Nylander. And I agree with what it says later on at the link you gave

It's especially important that it is Auston Matthews doing this. As the team's on ice leader and more than likely their future captain, him taking a discount could encourage Mitch Marner and William Nylander, among others, to do the same. If the three of them are willing to give up some AAV, or sign an extra year or two on their contracts, it would go a long way towards taking the Leafs from hopefuls to true contenders.

Matthews is "the man", not Nylander. Balls in his court, we'll see what happens.

I just don't think he has to take a discount, it'd be nice, but he doesn't owe it to anyone and it doesn't guarantee a win or make it that much easier.

If our top 5 players all took a discount of 1 million each is an extra 5 million really going to make our chances of winning that much better?

Every team that played Florida had an extra 5 million to work with (Vegas had 15) and it didn't work out, they had a hot goalie that carried them.

 

[andora]

I just don't think he has to take a discount, it'd be nice, but he doesn't owe it to anyone and it doesn't guarantee a win or make it that much easier.

If our top 5 players all took a discount of 1 million each is an extra 5 million really going to make our chances of winning that much better?

Every team that played Florida had an extra 5 million to work with (Vegas had 15) and it didn't work out, they had a hot goalie that carried them.

That is 2.5 Holls

 

[Mess]

Source on the rest of the post, that is not what I am worried about.

Treliving is aiming for 6? Matthews wants short-term so he can re-up again at a higher cap? I gave you a source for saying he'd take less.

How do you know the cap is going up? You rip the old GM for assuming so and now you are assuming? Seems hypocritical.

You can see the cap projection going up each year on Capfriendly with the image I shared.

Some around the league estimate that the cap could be due to go up between $10 million and $12 million over the next three years, based on revenue. If it only goes up $1 million this year because players still owe escrow payments to owners, that could mean sharp increases the following two years, creating an uneven playing field for free agents this year versus in 2024 and 2025.

Link to Athletic report: How and why the NHL salary cap could still see a larger increase this offseason

 

[notbias]

You can see the cap projection going up each year on Capfriendly with the image I shared.

Some around the league estimate that the cap could be due to go up between $10 million and $12 million over the next three years, based on revenue. If it only goes up $1 million this year because players still owe escrow payments to owners, that could mean sharp increases the following two years, creating an uneven playing field for free agents this year versus in 2024 and 2025.

View attachment 737799

Link to Athletic report: How and why the NHL salary cap could still see a larger increase this offseason

Did you know the cap was supposed to increase significantly after Matthews' signed his last contract?

You are betting on it increasing the same way the GM you say messed up those contracts did, it is hypocrisy and it is funny.

 

[seventieslord]

You consider Weegar a legit #1 defenseman?

Sure I do. Based on three key indicators, the balance of evidence suggests it.

- Based on his on-ice performance: Analytical models currently place him at approximately the 7th-10th most effective defenseman in the league
- Based on how much coaches utilize and trust him: His ESTOI/GP is 28th highest in the NHL over the past three seasons
- Based on how much GMs value him and feel they need to pay to retain him: His cap hit is currently 35th-highest in the NHL among defensemen.
- Based on his general perception as a player among fans: A recent poll responded to by thousands of twitter users placed him at 20th in the NHL.

Either the perception of him hasn't caught up to the analytics, or the analytics simply overrate him in some way (they are not perfect), but his perception among fans splits the difference there and provides a fair approximation of where he ranks today.

If you had called him a #2 defenseman I'd have said nothing. But a #4, that's just wrong.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Elliotte Friedman is the source

No, a no-name twitter account is the source. Interestingly, anybody can go on twitter and claim somebody said something. And then you used that incorrect information incorrectly. As just one example, there is no one value for "RFA years" and "UFA years". Different RFA years and different UFA years will have different values. Valuations also change with changing information. Etc.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I just don't think he has to take a discount, it'd be nice, but he doesn't owe it to anyone and it doesn't guarantee a win or make it that much easier.

If our top 5 players all took a discount of 1 million each is an extra 5 million really going to make our chances of winning that much better?

Every team that played Florida had an extra 5 million to work with (Vegas had 15) and it didn't work out, they had a hot goalie that carried them.

Nobody has to take a discount, I think that goes without saying.

An extra 5 million would greatly improve our chances, just how much is hard to quantify but sure, it would help a lot!

 

[Boxscore]

I just don't think he has to take a discount, it'd be nice, but he doesn't owe it to anyone and it doesn't guarantee a win or make it that much easier.

If our top 5 players all took a discount of 1 million each is an extra 5 million really going to make our chances of winning that much better?

Every team that played Florida had an extra 5 million to work with (Vegas had 15) and it didn't work out, they had a hot goalie that carried them.

Yes, it makes a huge difference. It's 5 mil immediately... and 5 mil plus more once the cap increases if they all commit to a long-term deal (which is why some of us have been stressing the importance of a long-term deal).

Ivan Barbashev makes 5 million per year... and he was extremely valuable during the Knights Cup run. He is the exact type of depth player the Leafs could use... and he signed for 5 x 5.

If the entire core each took 1 mil less and signed for 7 or 8 years... that "5 million less" would increase by millions each year the cap rises. by year 4 of those 8 year deals, the Leafs would have a ton of money to bring in exceptional depth players and maybe even another borderline elite player. But they sure can't do that if by year 4 they have to do new deals with Matthews and Marner that will eat up all the extra cap space.

This is really not that hard to figure out lol. It comes down to:

A. Happy number for both player and team
B. Absolutely committing long-term

... which is why most elite superstars sign 8-year deals even if the initial AAV seems very high. It's the very high AAV + the short-term deals that are poison pills. Hence why the Leafs haven't won anything significant since they started signing them.

 

[Boxscore]

Sure I do. Based on three key indicators, the balance of evidence suggests it.

- Based on his on-ice performance: Analytical models currently place him at approximately the 7th-10th most effective defenseman in the league
- Based on how much coaches utilize and trust him: His ESTOI/GP is 28th highest in the NHL over the past three seasons
- Based on how much GMs value him and feel they need to pay to retain him: His cap hit is currently 35th-highest in the NHL among defensemen.
- Based on his general perception as a player among fans: A recent poll responded to by thousands of twitter users placed him at 20th in the NHL.

Either the perception of him hasn't caught up to the analytics, or the analytics simply overrate him in some way (they are not perfect), but his perception among fans splits the difference there and provides a fair approximation of where he ranks today.

If you had called him a #2 defenseman I'd have said nothing. But a #4, that's just wrong.

Good points, and interesting on the analytics. I think I said Top-4 but I was thinking 2nd pair anchor. Regardless, the fact that the Panthers dealt him plus a softie in Huberdeau for an equally-elite producer with far more intangibles, heart, grit, and fire speaks volumes of how valuable those traits are during playoff wars.

 

[notbias]

Nobody has to take a discount, I think that goes without saying.

An extra 5 million would greatly improve our chances, just how much is hard to quantify but sure, it would help a lot!

It completely depends on how the 5 million is spent really, does someone like Coleman (most recent ~5 million Treliving long term signing) really help us that much? Probably not.

It would have allowed us to keep Bunting, Hyman, or Mikheyev, not sure any of them move the needle enough either.

Maybe it would have allowed us to take a run at Meier, Horvat, or Karlsson, not entirely sure that helps us too much either as they'd just be an upgrade on Bertuzzi/Klingberg.

It really depends on how it is used, but yes, every dollar helps, just not sure it "greatly improves our chances".

Yes, it makes a huge difference. It's 5 mil immediately... and 5 mil plus more once the cap increases if they all commit to a long-term deal (which is why some of us have been stressing the importance of a long-term deal).

Ivan Barbashev makes 5 million per year... and he was extremely valuable during the Knights Cup run. He is the exact type of depth player the Leafs could use... and he signed for 5 x 5.

If the entire core each took 1 mil less and signed for 7 or 8 years... that "5 million less" would increase by millions each year the cap rises. by year 4 of those 8 year deals, the Leafs would have a ton of money to bring in exceptional depth players and maybe even another borderline elite player. But they sure can't do that if by year 4 they have to do new deals with Matthews and Marner that will eat up all the extra cap space.

This is really not that hard to figure out lol. It comes down to:

A. Happy number for both player and team
B. Absolutely committing long-term

... which is why most elite superstars sign 8-year deals even if the initial AAV seems very high. It's the very high AAV + the short-term deals that are poison pills. Hence why the Leafs haven't won anything significant since they started signing them.

Most elite superstars do not sign 8 year deals.

We could have signed all the players to 8 year deals for higher AAVs and hoped the cap went up, but we'd be in a worse position now since it has increased 2 million in all those years.

 

[DarkKnight]

Or the other way around. Matthews agent knows the longer they wait, the more pressure on the Leafs.

Matthews has a NMC. Leafs options are to pay Matthews what he wants, or lose him for nothing.

What I‘m saying, we haven’t caved yet. Dubas would have acquiesced weeks ago.

 

[ACC1224]

Good points, and interesting on the analytics. I think I said Top-4 but I was thinking 2nd pair anchor. Regardless, the fact that the Panthers dealt him plus a softie in Huberdeau for an equally-elite producer with far more intangibles, heart, grit, and fire speaks volumes of how valuable those traits are during playoff wars.

They wouldn’t have moved Huberdeau had Tkachuk not fallen into their laps.

 

[Nineteen67]

It completely depends on how the 5 million is spent really, does someone like Coleman (most recent ~5 million Treliving long term signing) really help us that much? Probably not.

It would have allowed us to keep Bunting, Hyman, or Mikheyev, not sure any of them move the needle enough either.

Maybe it would have allowed us to take a run at Meier, Horvat, or Karlsson, not entirely sure that helps us too much either as they'd just be an upgrade on Bertuzzi/Klingberg.

It really depends on how it is used, but yes, every dollar helps, just not sure it "greatly improves our chances".



Most elite superstars do not sign 8 year deals.

We could have signed all the players to 8 year deals for higher AAVs and hoped the cap went up, but we'd be in a worse position now since it has increased 2 million in all those years.

Letting a player like Hyman walk is the most clear example of how Dubas mismanage the rebuild, and the cap.

 

[Boxscore]

Most elite superstars do not sign 8 year deals.

You don't consider...

McDavid
Draisaitl
MacKinnon
Kucherov
Pastrnak
Tkachuk
Hughes
Barkov
Stutzle
Point
Zibanejad
Aho
Stamkos
Svechinkov
Eichel
Huberdeau
Dahlin
Hedman
etc.

... elite superstars? They all signed 8-year deals, you know that right?

 

[Boxscore]

They wouldn’t have moved Huberdeau had Tkachuk not fallen into their laps.

That's completely irrelevant to my point that intense character players who have drive, leadership, and a fighting spirit tend to outperform soft creampuffs who can't level up when the games get tougher. Our superstars lack Tkachuk's DNA. And we have 4-5 of them. It's a problem. And it's a bigger problem when you cannot surround the softies with players like a Tkachuk because you have no cap space to do so. So, the Leafs either need to trade a couple softies for some, or convince the softies to take less money so they can add some. Pick your lane. To Treliving's credit, this offseason he's acquired a few players who bring this dynamic... but they are on short deals... and if they pan out... they've likely priced themselves out of Toronto next year and beyond due to limited cap space.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It completely depends on how the 5 million is spent really, does someone like Coleman (most recent ~5 million Treliving long term signing) really help us that much? Probably not.

It would have allowed us to keep Bunting, Hyman, or Mikheyev, not sure any of them move the needle enough either.

Maybe it would have allowed us to take a run at Meier, Horvat, or Karlsson, not entirely sure that helps us too much either as they'd just be an upgrade on Bertuzzi/Klingberg.

It really depends on how it is used, but yes, every dollar helps, just not sure it "greatly improves our chances".



Most elite superstars do not sign 8 year deals.

We could have signed all the players to 8 year deals for higher AAVs and hoped the cap went up, but we'd be in a worse position now since it has increased 2 million in all those years.

5 million would obviously improve any teams chances, "greatly" is a subjective term so not worth debating.

 

[Racer88]

This complete concept of “discount” makes no sense because there is no way to accurately set a dollar figure for a player. The amount is what the player and team agree on.
If Matthews takes 13.5 some will think it’s a discount and some will think it is an overpayment.
I f he takes 12 even some will think it is a fair deal and some will think discount Etc etc.
There is no way to say what is a discount and what is not

 

[Apex Predator]

You can’t pick and choose when you think Seravalli is reliable. posters use him as a source now to help there case but when it’s against there case he’s not reliable.

 

[Apex Predator]

It completely depends on how the 5 million is spent really, does someone like Coleman (most recent ~5 million Treliving long term signing) really help us that much? Probably not.

It would have allowed us to keep Bunting, Hyman, or Mikheyev, not sure any of them move the needle enough either.

Maybe it would have allowed us to take a run at Meier, Horvat, or Karlsson, not entirely sure that helps us too much either as they'd just be an upgrade on Bertuzzi/Klingberg.

It really depends on how it is used, but yes, every dollar helps, just not sure it "greatly improves our chances".



Most elite superstars do not sign 8 year deals.

We could have signed all the players to 8 year deals for higher AAVs and hoped the cap went up, but we'd be in a worse position now since it has increased 2 million in all those years.

I’d like to see some numbers on this as it looks like they seem to.

 

[hamzarocks]

So, just to get this straight, you think Dubas signed terrible contracts and they look terrible because the cap didn't go up, so you're solution is to sign longer contracts for more money and hope the cap goes up.

I find it comical how the people saying Dubas shouldn't have expected the cap to go up now expect the cap to go up.

Matthews at 12.5+ (that would have been the contract and between Eichel/McDavid) would have been good in your books for the last 4 years?

Why would a Matthews get 12.5M+ when his production wSnt close to Mcdavid's?

69 in 82
63 in 62

Those were his first two years

Next year he was on pace for 100ish for near half the games into the year but fell off hard as he usually does.

Mcdavid got 12.5M after his ross+hart+lindsay year

Matthews had a calder and two years of being a non top 15 player in the league.

Eichel got 10M out of 75M or 13.33% after

113 pts in 142 games in 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 year (rookie and sophmore years)

Next best player on his team 115 pts in 143 games (RoR)

Matthews got 11.634 out of 79.5M (signed in year)

178 pts in 182 games before his deal is signed ( rookie, sophmore, and third year half season)

Next best team mate

193 pts in 211 games (Marner up until Feb 4 2019 when Matthews signs)

Per 82 stats at time of signigs
Jack Eichel - 65 pts per 82
Auston Matthews 80 pts per 82
Mitch Marner 75 pts per 82
Mcdavid 96 pts per 82 at

What is a 15 pt gap worth?

Mcdavid is 16 ahead of Matthews while Eichel is 15 back of Matthews

Both signed for 8 year term. It seems that 11.-11.5M is the fair option between both deals on 8 year term. At 5 year term discount it down to 9.5M or so and its a fair deal for Matthews.

11.634M x 5 was 2M overpay

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

You don't consider...

McDavid
Draisaitl
MacKinnon
Kucherov
Pastrnak
Tkachuk
Hughes
Barkov
Stutzle
Point
Zibanejad
Aho
Stamkos
Svechinkov
Eichel
Huberdeau
Dahlin
Hedman
etc.

... elite superstars? They all signed 8-year deals, you know that right?

If we expanded the list to guys who've signed 7 year deals the list gets even bigger.

Brady Tkachuk
Panarin
Tavares
Gaudreau
Fox
Hamilton
Pietrangelo
Miller
Trouba
Hischier
Thompson

Fact of the matter is, in the NHL the vast majority of guys who are considered "franchise players" sign for 7-8 year deals. Not to mention that some of these 7 year deals are UFA contracts, which would lead us to believe that had it been an option these UFAs would've signed for 8 years if they could've.

Matthews is the lone wolf here. He's the one who considers himself to be above signing a long term deal despite not delivering anything in terms of team success. Hell I'd even take a 6 year deal from him, that would put him on the same length as Makar, Rantanen, Hughes, and Werenski. It's still not great and goes against the majority but it's a right sight better than 3 years.

 

[ACC1224]

When was the last time we heard from either Matthews or the GM?
Seems like everything is just recycled information repeated daily.

 

[hamzarocks]

If we expanded the list to guys who've signed 7 year deals the list gets even bigger.

Brady Tkachuk
Panarin
Tavares
Gaudreau
Fox
Hamilton
Pietrangelo
Miller
Trouba
Hischier
Thompson

Fact of the matter is, in the NHL the vast majority of guys who are considered "franchise players" sign for 7-8 year deals. Not to mention that some of these 7 year deals are UFA contracts, which would lead us to believe that had it been an option these UFAs would've signed for 8 years if they could've.

Matthews is the lone wolf here. He's the one who considers himself to be above signing a long term deal despite not delivering anything in terms of team success. Hell I'd even take a 6 year deal from him, that would put him on the same length as Makar, Rantanen, Hughes, and Werenski. It's still not great and goes against the majority but it's a right sight better than 3 years.

The only guys who took 5 year deals I can recall are

Crosby
Malkin
Stamkos
Kovy

They all also signed long term deals after that. No 13.5M x 3-5 lol