News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[JT AM da real deal]

In terms of Auston Matthews.

The best thing that happened to this organization was GM Lou Lamoriello successfully orchestrating a tanking season with Leafs by finishing last and then winning and drafting Auston Matthews.

The worst thing that happened to this organization was an incompetent GM in Kyle Dubas getting played by smart player agent and Auston Matthews in his 2nd contract selling off 4 of his restrictive free agency (RFA) years at unrestricted age prices on a short term deal & that Leafs organization only bought 1 year of free agency from him. Leafs went straight from ELC contract to UFA priced contract and among highest in the entire NHL. His current deal is still today the 4th highest AAV.

The Leafs lost the entire 4 year window of RFA years at cost controllable prices.. Matthews offered the Leafs a 3 year bridge deal at $9 mil per putting his RFA price years at that amount. So even if you give Matthews his $13.5 mil (rumoured current asking $ on UFA years) on a 5 year deal that = $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil [4 X RFA years] + $13.5 mil [1 X UFA year] = 5 years at $49.5 mil total = $9.9 mil AAV.

Of course $9 mil was unheard of for RFA cost controllable years back then when AM signed his current deal, and $13.5 mil is unheard of today (MacKinnon at $12.6 mil is ceiling) as UFA rate as both would have set new market prices for both. However even if Matthews set the bar on both Leafs would still have had him below $10 mil AAV for the past 5 years.

As the Leafs fanchise building block piece Matthews should have (MUST HAVE) been signed to a 8 year deal and at 4 X RFA years @$9 mil + 4 X UFA years @ $13.5 mil = $90 mil total over 8 years = $11.25 mil AAV. (McDavid deal was $100 mil over 8 = $12.5 mil AAV as his only comparable at the time). Leafs should be sitting here today with their franchise center still under contract for 4 more years.

PS. His current AAV at $11.634 had a Cap hit % of 14.64 % and what should have been his AAV $11.25 mil (for 8 years) = 14.25 C.H.%.

Yep it was a massive f****** .. but da past is history .. hopefully Matty gets signed going forward on a shorter deal under 12.5M AAV .. and he shows his commitment to a Cup run

 

[Stephen]

Thanks for the response.

Matthews appears to have chosen to follow the Alexander Daigle career path.

I think what the problem is, for fans like me anyway, is that the Leafs have this egotistical hotdogger. Who's seems to think he's become larger than the team. Controversy and entitlement have followed as a result.

Matthews attention seeking behaviour, along with his expectation of becoming the world's highest paid player, has started to alienate him from the fan base.

His demands for special treatment, including dress casual, has played out to its inevitable consequences. The fans are starting to see him as nothing but greedy, entitled, selfish, and spoiled. It makes fans like me begin to question his priorities when he seems to put more emphasis on his off ice pursuits than his on ice accomplishments.

Just like Alexander Daigle.

You have veered from legitimate criticisms of on ice shortcomings to straight up character assassination at this point.

I’m not even going to touch the Alexandre Daigle comparison because it’s frankly a joke. But off ice attire, media profile outside of the sport has never had anything to do with an athletes ability to produce championships and play at an elite level. Those are the only things that should matter.

 

[Stephen]

In terms of Auston Matthews.

The best thing that happened to this organization was GM Lou Lamoriello successfully orchestrating a tanking season with Leafs by finishing last and then winning and drafting Auston Matthews.

The worst thing that happened to this organization was an incompetent GM in Kyle Dubas getting played by smart player agent and Auston Matthews in his 2nd contract selling off 4 of his restrictive free agency (RFA) years at unrestricted age prices on a short term deal & that Leafs organization only bought 1 year of free agency from him. Leafs went straight from ELC contract to UFA priced contract and among highest in the entire NHL. His current deal is still today the 4th highest AAV.

The Leafs lost the entire 4 year window of RFA years at cost controllable prices.. Matthews offered the Leafs a 3 year bridge deal at $9 mil per putting his RFA price years at that amount. So even if you give Matthews his $13.5 mil (rumoured current asking $ on UFA years) on a 5 year deal that = $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil [4 X RFA years] + $13.5 mil [1 X UFA year] = 5 years at $49.5 mil total = $9.9 mil AAV.

Of course $9 mil was unheard of for RFA cost controllable years back then when AM signed his current deal, and $13.5 mil is unheard of today (MacKinnon at $12.6 mil is ceiling) as UFA rate as both would have set new market prices for both. However even if Matthews set the bar on both Leafs would still have had him below $10 mil AAV for the past 5 years.

As the Leafs fanchise building block piece Matthews should have (MUST HAVE) been signed to a 8 year deal and at 4 X RFA years @$9 mil + 4 X UFA years @ $13.5 mil = $90 mil total over 8 years = $11.25 mil AAV. (McDavid deal was $100 mil over 8 = $12.5 mil AAV as his only comparable at the time). Leafs should be sitting here today with their franchise center still under contract for 4 more years.

PS. His current AAV at $11.634 had a Cap hit % of 14.64 % and what should have been his AAV $11.25 mil (for 8 years) = 14.25 C.H.%.

Kyle Dubas and his brand of replacement level GM’ing, boardroom performative intelligence and spendthrift asset management was the wrong thing at the wrong time for the Leafs. Something something Snakes and Ladders.

 

[andora]

Kyle Dubas and his brand of replacement level GM’ing, boardroom performative intelligence and spendthrift asset management was the wrong thing at the wrong time for the Leafs. Something something Snakes and Ladders.

His model was probably 5 years too early imo.. oddly enough

Same way tavares imo was bad timing.. a couple years early

 

[Stephen]

His model was probably 5 years too early imo.. oddly enough

Same way tavares imo was bad timing.. a couple years early

The game swings back and forth in terms of speed and skill and size and strength and which general style is more successful or prevalent. The notion that the game is evolving away from x, y, z forever and always is a flawed assumption by an inexperienced manager who is frankly still learning up from down.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The game swings back and forth in terms of speed and skill and size and strength and which general style is more successful or prevalent. The notion that the game is evolving away from x, y, z forever and always is a flawed assumption by an inexperienced manager who is frankly still learning up from down.

The game doesn't really swing back and forth. Successful teams can just take many different forms, and different teams are going to have different mixtures of player qualities. The mixture of qualities doesn't really matter. Being able to utilize whatever qualities you have to be good at hockey does.

The game is absolutely evolving away from certain things, but those things aren't speed, skill, size, or strength, and nobody has ever indicated as such.
The flawed assumption seems to be your assumptions about what Dubas thought.

 

[Rob Brown]

Thanks for the response.

Matthews appears to have chosen to follow the Alexander Daigle career path.

I think what the problem is, for fans like me anyway, is that the Leafs have this egotistical hotdogger. Who's seems to think he's become larger than the team. Controversy and entitlement have followed as a result.

Matthews attention seeking behaviour, along with his expectation of becoming the world's highest paid player, has started to alienate him from the fan base.

His demands for special treatment, including dress casual, has played out to its inevitable consequences. The fans are starting to see him as nothing but greedy, entitled, selfish, and spoiled. It makes fans like me begin to question his priorities when he seems to put more emphasis on his off ice pursuits than his on ice accomplishments.

Just like Alexander Daigle.

Your posts sure are something.

 

[andora]

The game doesn't really swing back and forth. Successful teams can just take many different forms, and different teams are going to have different mixtures of player qualities. The mixture of qualities doesn't really matter. Being able to utilize whatever qualities you have to be good at hockey does.

The game is absolutely evolving away from certain things, but those things aren't speed, skill, size, or strength, and nobody has ever indicated as such.
The flawed assumption seems to be your assumptions about what Dubas thought.

This is where you read what he wrote too black and white. Their is some nuance here and also some truth depending on which teams are succeasful - even if it just covered in the media.

 

[Stephen]

The game doesn't really swing back and forth. Successful teams can just take many different forms, and different teams are going to have different mixtures of player qualities. The mixture of qualities doesn't really matter. Being able to utilize whatever qualities you have to be good at hockey does.

The game is absolutely evolving away from certain things, but those things aren't speed, skill, size, or strength, and nobody has ever indicated as such.
The flawed assumption seems to be your assumptions about what Dubas thought.

The game isn’t evolving from any style of play. Build the right roster you can play any way you want. Be small and skilled and better than anyone. Be big and beat the crap out of that skill team. It’s all execution.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Kyle Dubas and his brand of replacement level GM’ing, boardroom performative intelligence and spendthrift asset management was the wrong thing at the wrong time for the Leafs. Something something Snakes and Ladders.

Look at Dubas now in Pittsburgh...he is busy virtue signaling by hiring all sorts of people to endear himself to the crowd. Are the people he is hiring qualified? I don't know..maybe..maybe not. But I highly doubt it's as important to him as the "look" he is going for. Thank God he is gone...I don't think he learned much from his stint here and we would have been disappointed over the next few years as he tried the same dog and pony show over and over again.

 

[geo25]

I think it’s a reach. The problem with Daigle had really nothing to do with his off ice and everything to do with fact he simply wasn’t that good vs what he was supposed to be. Matthews has off ice things he’s into that we have zero reason to believe impact his hockey dedication at all, and he’s fully allowed to have those things. His personality being maybe not what people prefer means absolutely nothing when he’s backing it up by being one of the best players in the entire NHL.

Matthews gets no more special treatment than any superstar in any other city, and I garauntee you the perceptions by fans of him being greedy (true or not) are not that prevalent. The average fan in this city has no idea what players are being vs should be paid, nor do they care.

As far your comments on him being regarded as selfish, entitled and spoiled, it’s really a subset of the hardcore portion only of the overall fanbase that believes this. I think sometimes being hardcore fans who live and breath hockey talk we lose sight of that fact that sentiment in online communities rarely reflects that of the majority of fans

Huh? Forget the legalese double talk and call a spade a spade. He is greedy and his actions speak for themselves. He didnt earn his cap hit last year and doesnot deserve a raise. He is not a leader and imho we will not win with this core....him especially. Look at the results so far...they speak for themselves, regardless if you're a hardcore fan or not.

 

[geo25]

Absolutely. Every single time. Just because somebody doesn't have the exact, very specific type of response that you want, that doesn't mean they aren't upset. Just because they *gasp* also do things they enjoy during their offseason like everybody else, that doesn't mean they don't care.

Not sure what you think "ragdoll" means, but it's not that.

Fortunately, the ones we have fit just fine.

Huh???? Do you also do pro bono cases on the side?

 

[danny90]

In terms of Auston Matthews.

The best thing that happened to this organization was GM Lou Lamoriello successfully orchestrating a tanking season with Leafs by finishing last and then winning and drafting Auston Matthews.

The worst thing that happened to this organization was an incompetent GM in Kyle Dubas getting played by smart player agent and Auston Matthews in his 2nd contract selling off 4 of his restrictive free agency (RFA) years at unrestricted age prices on a short term deal & that Leafs organization only bought 1 year of free agency from him. Leafs went straight from ELC contract to UFA priced contract and among highest in the entire NHL. His current deal is still today the 4th highest AAV.

The Leafs lost the entire 4 year window of RFA years at cost controllable prices.. Matthews offered the Leafs a 3 year bridge deal at $9 mil per putting his RFA price years at that amount. So even if you give Matthews his $13.5 mil (rumoured current asking $ on UFA years) on a 5 year deal that = $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil [4 X RFA years] + $13.5 mil [1 X UFA year] = 5 years at $49.5 mil total = $9.9 mil AAV.

Of course $9 mil was unheard of for RFA cost controllable years back then when AM signed his current deal, and $13.5 mil is unheard of today (MacKinnon at $12.6 mil is ceiling) as UFA rate as both would have set new market prices for both. However even if Matthews set the bar on both Leafs would still have had him below $10 mil AAV for the past 5 years.

As the Leafs fanchise building block piece Matthews should have (MUST HAVE) been signed to a 8 year deal and at 4 X RFA years @$9 mil + 4 X UFA years @ $13.5 mil = $90 mil total over 8 years = $11.25 mil AAV. (McDavid deal was $100 mil over 8 = $12.5 mil AAV as his only comparable at the time). Leafs should be sitting here today with their franchise center still under contract for 4 more years.

PS. His current AAV at $11.634 had a Cap hit % of 14.64 % and what should have been his AAV $11.25 mil (for 8 years) = 14.25 C.H.%.

When you put it that way sounds like management did an amazing job.

 

[ZEBROA]

I prefer Matthews to sign and take a "cut" on his salary to show everybody that he is serious about winning with this team. Others should follow. If he is smart that is what he should do. He can get extra money from sponsors and stuff like that.

He should show the team that he are a leader or sincerly and with no hard feelings what so ever just FO.

Not asking him to take less that he is worth, just asking him to take was he is worth and no more. Not 2-3 mill more then other teams would have given him. We need to stop this ecosystem.

I love that Ekholm quote "Borlange were i am from we dont need that much money" and " i got enough, i will not be able to spend all during my lifetime" . and this dude had a 3.5mill salary. Doubled it since then , still halfway to Matthews new contract. Different player and Matthew should earn a lot more. It is just the attitude to money that i feel differ a bit.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

I prefer Matthews to sign and take a "cut" on his salary to show everybody that he is serious about winning with this team. Others should follow. If he is smart that is what he should do. He can get extra money from sponsors and stuff like that.

He should show the team that he are a leader or sincerly and with no hard feelings what so ever just FO.

Not asking him to take less that he is worth, just asking him to take was he is worth and no more. Not 2-3 mill more then other teams would have given him. We need to stop this ecosystem.

I love that Ekholm quote "Borlange were i am from we dont need that much money" and " i got enough, i will not be able to spend all during my lifetime" . and this dude had a 3.5mill salary. Doubled it since then , still halfway to Matthews new contract. Different player and Matthew should earn a lot more. It is just the attitude to money that i feel differ a bit.

Lol at no point has Auston Matthews given any indication he cares about winning.

He cares about earning, not winning. The only part of winning he might care about is what it would do for his personal brand.

 

[ZEBROA]

Lol at no point has Auston Matthews given any indication he cares about winning.

He cares about earning, not winning. The only part of winning he might care about is what it would do for his personal brand.

If , is say IF that is true, then he is stupid and there is no help for him . If for a couple of mill he could make a statment that might make leafs win the stanley. To be the first in 55 years. And he didnt take that chance. He will kick himself in the future. Then his personal brand should be named "Branddead".

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Kyle Dubas and his brand of replacement level GM’ing, boardroom performative intelligence and spendthrift asset management was the wrong thing at the wrong time for the Leafs. Something something Snakes and Ladders.

For me, it affirms my belief that analytics are vastly overrated. There are so many flaws in models when trying to translate a roster on paper to the one on the ice.

 

[Mess]

When you put it that way sounds like management did an amazing job.

Amazing alright !!!

Someone in elementary school could have done a better job with just a simple understanding of RFA and UFA status and NHL comparables given this template. It was all laid out as a perfect roadmap..

Connor McDavid .. signs 8 years $100 mil total = $12.5 mil AAV
Auston Matthews = ........................................................................................ [Fill in the blank]
Jack Eichel ............. signs 8 years @ $80 mil total = $10.0 mil AAV

A elementary student could have come up with the basis for Auston contract by saying Matthews should fall between those 2 recently signed deals as guardrails comparables to help in amount and term, as I'm willing to make him the 2nd highest paid player in the NHL.

Therefore Auston Matthews signs for 8 years @ $90.0 mil total = $11.25 mil AAV and 14.25 C.H.%. (exact midpoint)

PS. The only little room for negotiating that Dubas could have been able to be played on was perhaps a slight bump up to $11.634 mil AAV per year up from $11.25 mil AAV over 8 years. Its actually incomprehensible how an actual NHL GM could screw this up so badly.

Dubas screwed over this organization so badly that now we sit here listening to rumours that Auston wants 3-4 year deal at $13.5 mil when he should still have 4 full years left on his previous contract.

 

[Captain Crunch]

The game doesn't really swing back and forth. Successful teams can just take many different forms, and different teams are going to have different mixtures of player qualities. The mixture of qualities doesn't really matter. Being able to utilize whatever qualities you have to be good at hockey does.

The game is absolutely evolving away from certain things, but those things aren't speed, skill, size, or strength, and nobody has ever indicated as such.
The flawed assumption seems to be your assumptions about what Dubas thought.

So now you’re saying you know what Dubas thought, as you said his assumptions are flawed? Could your assumptions be flawed?

Every team has different mixtures of players, not just successful ones. Being able to utilize whatever qualities you have to be good at hockey does indeed matter. Now as you’ve said many times before, luck also plays a part. It’s strange how luck hasn’t affected how well the Leafs do in the regular season, but then continues to rear its ugly head come playoffs. The one constant in these past 5 playoffs has been the core, including Rielly (who in my opinion has played his best come playoff time, and truly earned what he was being paid). And this brings up an interesting topic worthy of discussion at some point: is the core being paid fairly, despite their disappearing acts in the playoffs, while Rielly is being overpaid despite how he shows up in the playoffs; compared to the core’s very good regular seasons, and Rielly’s fair to sometimes good regular seasons? And yes, obviously, you would want both.

The constant change has been adding players to surround the core. These past playoffs, I really thought Dubas had done a very good job of adding the right mix of players to surround the core, although he gave up a lot of draft picks in doing so. So not counting luck, what do you think was the main cause for this? Was it on the core, the supporting cast, the defence, goaltending? If I had to pick just one, I would say the core because they basically disappeared the last three games against Florida. A very close second would be the defence. There is no cap room to address the defence (I wonder why). It seems Nylander has priced himself out, so maybe Treliving can address this problem in trading Nylander, meaning that would create a little under $7 million of cap room. Now combine that with his talent, surely we could get a top 4 dman and a bottom 6 forward (someone capable of contributing offensively as well as PK). So which way would the Leafs be better off? I would pick trading Nylander.

My question to you is, the Leafs did finally get past the 1st round, but why did they fizzle out so quickly in the 2nd round? ROR, Schenn, and Acciari certainly helped, but this team quickly showed their playoff shortcomings against Florida! How long should it take to surround this core with the right mix of players to finally be able to make a serious run in the playoffs, as in at least getting to the Conference finals? How long will it take for the cap to rise enough to be able to pay (Matthews and Marner for sure as it seems they will be getting raises AGAIN) this core what they feel they are “worthy” to be paid? I guess we are going to have to continue to wait and see, at least until the Tavares money comes off the books. Hopefully they won’t feel the need to add another $11-$12 million forward at that time, but instead get a top 2 dman.

 

[DarkKnight]

You just know 34 is holding on for maximum everything, he won’t leave a nickel on the table.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I am hoping that a fair deal for both sides has been agreed upon in principle and they are waiting for the start of training camp to announce it.

If not, it will be a major distraction going into the season.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I am hoping that a fair deal for both sides has been agreed upon in principle and they are waiting for the start of training camp to announce it.

If not, it will be a major distraction going into the season.

Or a big mistake in just not trading him at the draft.

 

[Mess]

You just know 34 is holding on for maximum everything, he won’t leave a nickel on the table.

Rumour has it the Leafs would like to get Willy signed first to a fair market price before Matthews signs his new salary cap busting market setting price.

If Auston isn't leaving any money on the table then why should Nylander?

 

[Nineteen67]

I am hoping that a fair deal for both sides has been agreed upon in principle and they are waiting for the start of training camp to announce it.

If not, it will be a major distraction going into the season.

Questions around contracts, including the head coach, could negatively impact the season.

This could be the only season where they have a chance at winning the Atlantic division and they’ll probably find a way to distract themselves out of it.

 

[supermann_98]

I'll bet you McDavid shows loyalty to the franchise that paid him over a hundred million before his 30th birthday and to the fanbase that supported him. He'll sign another team friendly 8 year contract with Edmonton. He'll be the highest paid player for the first year of his deal, then Matthews will eclipse him after finishing his 13.5 x 3 deal.

As if any other team in the league wouldn’t have HAPPILY paid him over 100 million before his 30th birthday. Tavares’ albatross contract come off the books in 2 years and in 3 years he’s replaced by mcDavid coming home here to Toronto. If Matthews want to play the 3 year contract game he can, but he won’t get a dime more than McD on the Leafs contract AAV