News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[Confucius]

Ovechkin goals in his 30s:

Age 33 = 51G
Age 34 = 48G (in 68 GP)
Age 35 = 24G (in 45 GP)
Age 36 = 50G (in 77 GP)
Age 37 = 42G (in 73 GP)

Now, we don't need Matthews to be like Ovechkin, which is the exact same reason Matthews shouldn't be paid like someone on the level of Ovechkin.

We need Matthews to be a very good, solid and savvy veteran producer in his 30s -- say 35-40 goals until he's about 35. That is why we need him to commit to an 8-year deal @ approximately 12.5 per, so we can bank on his veteran production from age 32-35 while using the extra cap dollars on better, younger players to take the pressure off of him.

If we think Matthews is going to fall off the cliff at age 32, wtf are we worried about losing him for? Legit megastars like Sid, Geno, Ovechkin, etc. perform well into their late-30s. Heck, Claude Giroux just scored 35 goals and about a PPG for the Sens at age 35. If we think Matthews is going to be toast then, we better trade him by next Wednesday.

Too late to trade him, he holds all the cards now. I didn’t say he would be toast, I said he won’t be worth 13 million at 32 plus. Big difference
And Ovechkin’s cap hit is 9.5….

Your assuming he signs for 8 yrs, it’s never good to assume

No, I’m hoping he doesn’t, others here on the other hand…

 

[Gaberd2608]

Why would he plan on leaving? No other team would put up with him and give him everything he wants.

What other star takes max salary but doesnt sign max term?

In Toronto he gets max salary, max bonus, upfront payment, whatever term he wants, plus management needs to provide a complimentary $11 million winger so he doesnt need to work hard + never ending endorsement opportunities as well as zero accountability to management his teammates, the city, or their fans.

What other team in the league would put up with this schtick. The problem is Dubas let it go first time round so now they expect it. If they all signed 8 year deals, Tavares would be off the cap when their contracts expired and the cap would have had time to risen.

They would be better off trading all 3 for a haul and moving forward. I know we may lose the trades but i would rather take my chances than have another few years of this.

 

[ALine]

Well I’d prefer 5 over 8, you really think Mathews would be worth 13 at age 32, 33, 34? I think he isn’t worth that now…

I’d be comfortable with no higher than 13 x 8.
5 years would be the worst case scenario.

The way I see it, on his current deal, he took a 5 year to keep the aav lower, as an 8 year would have eaten more ufa years, and cost more.
On this upcoming deal, the opposite should be true. A 5 year deal would cost more aav as it covers the rest of what could be believed to be the remainder of his most productive years.
Extending it out to 8 years could keep his aav lower through the remainder of what could be believed to be his most productive years.

The leafs need to take the risk of those last 3 years but is mitigated by a slightly lower aav through the first 5. They get cap certainty , and as the cap rises, the deal gets more manageable every year. Matthews risk of a decline in the final few years is mitigated by taking the 8 years now.

 

[Confucius]

I’d be comfortable with no higher than 13 x 8.
5 years would be the worst case scenario.

The way I see it, on his current deal, he took a 5 year to keep the aav lower, as an 8 year would have eaten more ufa years,and cost more.
On this upcoming deal, the opposite should be true. A 5 year deal would cost more aav as it covers the rest of what could be believed to be the remainder of his most productive years.
Extending it out to 8 years could keep his aav lower through the remainder of what could be believed to be his most productive years.

The leafs need to take the risk of those last 3 years but is mitigated by a slightly lower aav through the first 5. They get cap certainty , and as the cap rises, the deal gets more manageable every year. Matthews risk of a decline in the final few years is mitigated by taking the 8 years now.

Alrighty then.. we’ll just disagree
Meanwhile, McDavid cap hit is 12.5, Mathews isn’t close to McDavid who has 5 100 plus point seasons with a high of 153

 

[Niagara Bill]

I’d be comfortable with no higher than 13 x 8.
5 years would be the worst case scenario.

The way I see it, on his current deal, he took a 5 year to keep the aav lower, as an 8 year would have eaten more ufa years, and cost more.
On this upcoming deal, the opposite should be true. A 5 year deal would cost more aav as it covers the rest of what could be believed to be the remainder of his most productive years.
Extending it out to 8 years could keep his aav lower through the remainder of what could be believed to be his most productive years.

The leafs need to take the risk of those last 3 years but is mitigated by a slightly lower aav through the first 5. They get cap certainty , and as the cap rises, the deal gets more manageable every year. Matthews risk of a decline in the final few years is mitigated by taking the 8 years now.

I disagree with term. Should be 5 yrs, providing three is No clause that stops us from trading him in year 4 or 5. If we are winning a cup great, if not using this asset to rebuild is essential. I don't give a flying fig if he spends his entire career as a Leaf...win a Stanley is the issue.
Sittler never won a cup and didn't play entire career in TO,

 

[Dekes For Days]

The depth has been horrific. Hail Mary passes like Joe Thornton who are 9,004 years old and benched late in the season.

The depth has not been horrific. I don't think one cherry picked league minimum guy from 3 years ago is wholly representative of our depth over the past half decade, and Thornton wasn't even bad for us. He also wasn't benched late in the season. In fact, he had 8 points in the last 10 games of the season. He also signed the next year and was depth for 122 point, President's trophy winning Florida after leaving us.

They certainly are overpaying them. Marner signed years ago for 10.8 mil x 6 when Matt Tkachuk just signed last summer for 9.5 x 8 (after scoring 40 goals and 100+ points).

They are not overpaying them. Not only can you not compare 2nd and 3rd contracts, but Marner was a better player through his ELC at ages 19-21 than Tkachuk was in the 3 years in his prime leading up to his contract.

Nikita Kucherov signed the following summer for 9.5 (after winning the Hart and scoring 126 points

That is wrong. Kucherov signed the year before his Hart season.

Fair market would have been:

Nylander: 6.5
Marner: 8.5
Matthews: 10.5
Tavares: 9.5

Your valuations are way off.

 

[Niagara Bill]

What is the play though people? We can sit here bitching and moaning about the contract he got 5 years ago, that and a $1.50 buys a Mr. Big.

Do you really let him walk next year? Because he wants what, 14 not 13, just hypothetically? It's not real. I've said it before, mess with anything else cap structure wise, but for AM, here, now, not signing him, there's no upside. f*** with the rest of it, AM is automatic.

Right, he MUST be signed, whether 12, 13, 14? , this is an asset. I am a Leaf fan first and doing what is best for Leafs is most important. We missed our chance on June 30.
What is important is not being restricted in what we can do with the asset. Cannot have a no trade clause. Leaf management screwed us in June, but we need the flexibility.
This is not the Ghetto NBA where players control the team, where guys like Kyrie Irving tell fans and owners what to do and when and where they want to play and with who.
AM or WN cannot be allowed to demand money and power.

 

[ToDavid]

Matthews gonna make 13m while other contenders like LA #1C Kopitar making 7m.

Wonder if Matthews gets it or does he not really care about winning.

Crosby and Bergeron openly talked about taking less to win.

Kopitar is literally still finishing the contract he signed for nearly 14% of the cap back in 2016. Or about $12m on the anticipated cap when Matthews contract starts.

Like he’s still great and his 2x$7m is clearly a team friendly deal, but he’ll also be 37 when it starts. You can’t be serious with that comparison.

 

[ACC1224]

Matthews gonna make 13m while other contenders like LA #1C Kopitar making 7m.

Wonder if Matthews gets it or does he not really care about winning.

Crosby and Bergeron openly talked about taking less to win.

Kind of silly, these are two players at different stages in their career. Hasn't Kopitar already made his money?

** just saw others have already jumped on that, wasn't trying to pile on.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Kopitar is literally still finishing the contract he signed for nearly 14% of the cap back in 2016. Or about $12m on the anticipated cap when Matthews contract starts.

Like he’s still great and his 2x$7m is clearly a team friendly deal, but he’ll also be 37 when it starts. You can’t be serious with that comparison.

The thing is, when he signed that contract they already won 2 cups. Leafs have won 5 playoff games last year, Matthews was a total no show in round 2. That’s what is frustrating me about this. MVP level players can not have one series on 5 series off. I think he is in it for the money only. He doesn't care about winning.

 

[pcruz]

Pretty good is fairly subjective.

Since M&M's contracts kicked in, we've tried at least 25 "depth" forwards. Not a lot of "wow's" in my opinion.

Pierre Engvall - Just received a 7 year contract.
Jason Spezza - Older guy, former top 3 draft pick.
David Kampf - Re-signed here.
Ilya Mikheyev - Became too expensive.
Wayne Simmonds - Older, character guy.
Zach Aston-Reese - Didn't pan out.
Calle Jarnkrok - Re-signed by team.
Kasperi Kapanen - 1st round pick, priced himself out of the league.
Frederik Gauthier - 1st round pick, never delivered.
Ondrej Kase - Same player as Kampf...
Joe Thornton - Older player, character and experience.
Andreas Johnsson - Priced himself out.
Kyle Clifford - Enforcer with experience.
Dmytro Timashov - Hasn't even made it...
Pontus Holmberg - AHL player
Nick Ritchie - 1st round pick, didn't pan out.
Nicholas Robertson - Still on team, always hurt.
Denis Malgin - Geno Malgin had a cup of coffee in the NHL.
Jimmy Vesey - Coveted player for years....
Trevor Moore - Serviceable player.
Alex Galchenyuk - Lives from his luggage due to changing teams so often.
Noel Acciari - Wanted out of Toronto apparently.
Travis Boyd - Who?
Sam Lafferty - Still on team.
Adam Brooks - AHL player

A bunch of them just didn't deliver on the expectations put on them.
A bunch of 1st round picks.
A few Older guys with lots of experience for younger players.
Some are still on the team.
4 performed well and ended up pricing themselves out of the team, or even the league really.
A few are still on the team now.


You could do this exercise for every other team (minus Vegas and Seattle), and end up with similar lists.

 

[Rob Brown]

Matthews gonna make 13m while other contenders like LA #1C Kopitar making 7m.

Wonder if Matthews gets it or does he not really care about winning.

Crosby and Bergeron openly talked about taking less to win.

This is not a good comparison. Ignoring the fact that Kopitar will be 36 next month and just signed what will likely be his last contract, was his cap hit not $10M last year?

 

[pcruz]

And don't forget the young up-and-comers:
-Jack Hughes is on pace to contend for a future MVP and hes long term for $8m per year
-Hintz put up almost 40 in the last couple years and he is long term at $8.4m
-Tage Thompson in Buf put up 40 last year and almost 50 this year (playing hurt toward the end of the season) at $7.1m
-Robertson in Dallas has 87 goals in the last 2 years and is at $7.7

Toronto really could use something CLOSE to that kind of bargain with at least one of their core players.

Well, if you value goals for cheap, Matthews scored 110 goals for $3m...

Seems like a good value to me. Why didn't the team win when they had him, Marner and Nylander for dirt cheap?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Matthews is a greedy, leaf’s would do well to get rid of him. Not worth it

That would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Matthews gonna make 13m while other contenders like LA #1C Kopitar making 7m.

Wonder if Matthews gets it or does he not really care about winning.

Crosby and Bergeron openly talked about taking less to win.

Kopitar is nearing the end of his career of course he took less, he currently has a cap hit of 10 million far from a discount especially when he signed it.

 

[egd27]

A bunch of them just didn't deliver on the expectations put on them.
A bunch of 1st round picks.
A few Older guys with lots of experience for younger players.
Some are still on the team.
4 performed well and ended up pricing themselves out of the team, or even the league really.
A few are still on the team now.


You could do this exercise for every other team (minus Vegas and Seattle), and end up with similar lists.

Right, so a bunch of guys that

1. didn't deliver on expectations
2. were cheap older guys with low expectations that were needed due to cap constraints
3. performed well and ended up pricing themselves out of the team due to cap constraints

Seems to me that the money spent on 16/34/88/91 has impacted the team's ability to acquire and retain "pretty good" depth. Again, "pretty good" is subjective, so just my opinion.

 

[LeafSteel]

My understanding is that Marner, Matthews and Nylander met to discuss their contract negotiation strategies.

The moment was captured on film below:

I hope that made someone laugh.



Happy Friday everyone.

Stay cool and hydrated.

 

[CelticDruid]

There are gossip/rumours of Matty only signing a 1 year extension.
Obviously waiting for the cap rise and Tavares coming off of the books

 

[Clark4Ever]

There are gossip/rumours of Matty only signing a 1 year extension.
Obviously waiting for the cap rise and Tavares coming off of the books

I might be ok with that if the number is low.

 

[Gary Nylund]

They're going to give this guy what he asks for. I don't even read Matthews news. It's all noise just to keep people reading.

If we lose Matthews, most of us will be dead by the time we ever find another player as good as him.

Lose him or not, looks like most of us will be dead by the time this team makes the finals again.

I agree, they will give him whatever he wants. I wish they didn't though if he asks for too much because the constant playoff embarrassments are bad enough, being bent over by M&M just adds insult to injury making the Leafs not just playoff doormats, but suckers as well.

 

[MCR74]

Lose him or not, looks like most of us will be dead by the time this team makes the finals again.

I agree, they will give him whatever he wants. I wish they didn't though if he asks for too much because the constant playoff embarrassments are bad enough, being bent over by M&M just adds insult to injury making the Leafs not just playoff doormats, but suckers as well.

Finally someone says it. Thank you.

 

[13pacheco31]

There are gossip/rumours of Matty only signing a 1 year extension.
Obviously waiting for the cap rise and Tavares coming off of the books

I've heard 3 years but not 1. Maybe a 2 year would work out better if the idea is to wait for the cap to rise and Tavares come off the books

 

[Sypher04]

There are gossip/rumours of Matty only signing a 1 year extension.
Obviously waiting for the cap rise and Tavares coming off of the books

I think there’s virtually no chance of that happening. Lots of talk out there, best to ignore all of it

 

[pcruz]

This is not a good comparison. Ignoring the fact that Kopitar will be 36 next month and just signed what will likely be his last contract, was his cap hit not $10M last year?

Not just that he was at 10 for the last few years, his % of the cap was quite high.

Here are a few players who signed big deals recently, and the % of the salary cap they signed for.

I wonder how Matthews would be perceived with these numbers.

The salary cap will, conservatively, be at 87.5M when his deal kicks in.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]%of cap[/TD]
[TD]Length[/TD]
[TD]Pro-rated to 87.5M[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]14.64[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]12.81[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Anze Kopitar[/TD]
[TD]14.01[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]12.26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]18.96[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]17.38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Connor McDavid[/TD]
[TD]16.67[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]14.58[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Evgeni Malkin[/TD]
[TD]15.34[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]13.42[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[tuckerintensity]

Defending these atrocious contracts is part of the problem. Fair market would have been:

Nylander: 6.5
Marner: 8.5
Matthews: 10.5
Tavares: 9.5

I don't think you understand what FMV means.