LEAFS GDT Atlantic Division - Race to the 1st

[Confucius]

6 actually, but good point, I've been thinking about how that series went as well. Ottawa is young, hungry, 1st time in the playoffs in ages, I assume they'll be playing their butts off.

I can’t see there being much of a difference between the regular season and playoffs between the 2, although I think we should still win a game maybe 2

 

[Dekes For Days]

The standard is 5v5, as that is where the vast majority of the game is played, and is used as the basis of comparison across multiple hockey / stats blogs. You just exposed yourself - if you wanted to criticize the PK or empty net situations where the team has been terrible, then so be it, but don't paint a false picture.

The only one painting a false picture is you. You jumped into a discussion to lie about me and what I was doing, and then you switched to only looking at one game state and including goaltending impacts to misrepresent our defensive play. You were exposed, and are now resorting to insults.

The standard is not to isolate how a team performs in one game state and ignore everything else. I've already explained that the PK is dragging down our defensive results, but our defensive results on the PK matter too. Even our defensive results at 5v5 don't really put us in new territory. We just used to do it without neutering our 5v5 offense.

 

[1specter]

I’m always amazed at the patience dekes has in these conversations, and how offended people get at simple truths…

simping for Dekes, never thought I'd see the day

 

[authentic]

The only one painting a false picture is you. You jumped into a discussion to lie about me and what I was doing, and then you switched to only looking at one game state and including goaltending impacts to misrepresent our defensive play. You were exposed, and are now resorting to insults.

The standard is not to isolate how a team performs in one game state and ignore everything else. I've already explained that the PK is dragging down our defensive results, but our defensive results on the PK matter too. Even our defensive results at 5v5 don't really put us in new territory. We just used to do it without neutering our 5v5 offense.

I’ve tried to tell people this already but media narratives reign supreme.

 

[authentic]

It probably will go to 7 via the comedy of errors we are used to, but a veteran division winner should not be planning on a tough 7 games vs an upstart. Beat the hell out of them early, do the work and move on.

This is our only real shot at going the distance, have to win round 1 in 5 or less.

 

[Stephen]

This is our only real shot at going the distance, have to win round 1 in 5 or less.

Be the grownups in the room, set the standard and never let up. Overwhelm that team and have them crawl out of the series just feeling mission accomplished they are there. If for whatever reason you unleash a Cinderella run out of Ottawa. End the era.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

How many playoff wins we end up getting doesn't change anything. It's not going to be a result of the inherent superiority of a playstyle. All playstyles have success.

Goaltending has been a bright spot, and goaltending is indeed a massive factor in playoff success. If our goalies can maintain this, and we don't run into the kind of goaltending that we have at times in the past, we have a good chance to pick up wins.

I'd say it does. It will put a final nail in the coffin of the Dubas/Keefe era. The Dubas/Keefe era is always top of mind for you, and the reason you defend so hard here.

 

[Evilhomer]

I'd say it does. It will put a final nail in the coffin of the Dubas/Keefe era. The Dubas/Keefe era is always top of mind for you, and the reason you defend so hard here.

While I agree on the Keefe point, when the Leafs win this season it will be disingenuous to say that Dubas did not play a large role in building a winning team. Most of this team is still his doing.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

I'd say it does. It will put a final nail in the coffin of the Dubas/Keefe era. The Dubas/Keefe era is always top of mind for you, and the reason you defend so hard here.

You mean the era that had us playing a high-risk, high-flying, low physicality pretty-to-watch but ultimately unsuccessful in the playoffs type of hockey? Good riddance to that.

 

[TorMapleJays]

While I agree on the Keefe point, when the Leafs win this season it will be disingenuous to say that Dubas did not play a large role in building a winning team. Most of this team is still his doing.

Who?

 

[Torontonian]

How does Tampa have the tie breaker over us if we lose both games and they win out in both games?

If Toronto goes 0-2 and Tampa goes 2-2 for example but wins both those games in shootout, would we not have every stat ahead of them? RW, ROW, head to head?

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

While I agree on the Keefe point, when the Leafs win this season it will be disingenuous to say that Dubas did not play a large role in building a winning team. Most of this team is still his doing.

It’s not most but it is a big chunk of the team that has his fingerprints on it. A third (8/24 players) of this team heading into the playoff is his doing. Biggest pieces left that were pure Dubas moves are our 2C, 1LW, and our 1/2LD.

Matthews (Lou)
Marner (Hunter/Dubas)
Nylander (Nonis/Shanahan)
Tavares (Dubas)
Knies (Dubas)
McMann (Dubas)
Domi (Treliving)
Holmberg (Dubas)
Robertson (Dubas)
Laughton (Treliving)
Lorentz (Treliving)
Jarnkrok (Dubas)
Kampf (Dubas)
Pacioretty (Treliving)

Rielly (Burke)
Tanev (Treliving)
McCabe (Dubas)
Carlo (Treliving)
Ekman-Larsson (Treliving)
Benoit (Treliving)
Myers (Treliving)
*Hakanpaa (Treliving)

Stolarz (Treliving)
Woll (Lou)

*11 (Hakanpaa is still a massive question mark so more like 10) players are pure Treliving moves. This includes our 1G and most of the defence including our 1RD and 2RD. The head coach is also all Treliving.

Lou leaves behind our 1C, 1RW, and 2G. Nonis, but really Shanahan given the story around the 2014 draft, drafted Nylander, and Burke drafted Rielly.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We have dramatically improved defensively lowering our GAA from 3.18 to 2.85 putting us at 12th in the league.

That's the result of a +26.4 goal improvement in our goaltending.
We were 12th in goals against in 2018, and 7th in 2021 and 2023.

Is Tanev better than anyone else on last year's playoff roster? Is Carlo better than Lybushkin? Is OEL better than Edmundson? I have seen a big improvement from our defence on being tough around the net, boxing out, battling for pucks, and blocking shots. Our forward depth is more than adequate compared to last year's. I had more defensive concerns last playoffs than I will these playoffs.

I had more defensive concerns last year too, but that says more about our defense last year than our defense this year. Comparing to the year we massively dropped off defensively doesn't do us a ton of good. We have improved in certain aspects of defensive play, but fallen off in others. Positioning, entry denial, zone exits, tying up sticks, pressure, getting in lanes, getting to pucks, making plays with the puck, getting sticks on shots, etc. There are so many things that contribute to effective defensive play. Contrary to the beliefs of some, good defensive play isn't just about getting the biggest guys to shove people in the crease and have pucks hit them.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

How does Tampa have the tie breaker over us if we lose both games and they win out in both games?

If Toronto goes 0-2 and Tampa goes 2-2 for example but wins both those games in shootout, would we not have every stat ahead of them? RW, ROW, head to head?

If Tampa were to win both games in OT or shootout or a combination of the two, the Leafs take the division no matter what because they'd be tied in RWs but Leafs would have the second tie-breaker in ROWs. Lots of ways the Leafs can claim this division and they hold all of the cards. Personally, I'd feel a lot more comfortable if they could seal it tonight by getting a point.

 

[thewave]

It’s not most but it is a big chunk of the team that has his fingerprints on it. A third (8/24 players) of this team heading into the playoff is his doing. Biggest pieces left that were pure Dubas moves are our 2C, 1LW, and our 1/2LD.

Matthews (Lou) good
Marner (Lou) bad
Nylander (Nonis/Shanahan) good
Tavares (Dubas) baf
Knies (Dubas) good
McMann (Dubas) good
Domi (Treliving) ---
Holmberg (Dubas) bad
Robertson (Dubas) bad
Laughton (Treliving) bad
Lorentz (Treliving) ---
Jarnkrok (Dubas) bad
Kampf (Dubas) bad
Pacioretty (Treliving) ---

Rielly (Burke) good and then bad
Tanev (Treliving) good
McCabe (Dubas) good
Carlo (Treliving) good
Ekman-Larsson (Treliving) good
Benoit (Treliving) ---
Myers (Treliving) ---
*Hakanpaa (Treliving) bad

Stolarz (Treliving) good
Woll (Lou) good

*11 (Hakanpaa is still a massive question mark so more like 10) players are pure Treliving moves. This includes our 1G and most of the defence including our 1RD and 2RD. The head coach is also all Treliving.

Lou leaves behind our 1C, 1RW, and 2G. Nonis, but really Shanahan given the story around the 2014 draft, drafted Nylander, and Burke drafted Rielly.

Added ratings for amusement

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'd say it does. It will put a final nail in the coffin of the Dubas/Keefe era. The Dubas/Keefe era is always top of mind for you, and the reason you defend so hard here.

It doesn't say anything about the inherent superiority of a playstyle. Teams with all sorts of playstyles find success. Not sure what you think Dubas and Keefe have to do with this discussion. You're the only one that seems to have them top of mind.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Lou leaves behind our 1C, 1RW, and 2G.

Lou wasn't here for Marner.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

It’s not most but it is a big chunk of the team that has his fingerprints on it. A third (8/24 players) of this team heading into the playoff is his doing. Biggest pieces left that were pure Dubas moves are our 2C, 1LW, and our 1/2LD.

Matthews (Lou)
Marner (Lou)
Nylander (Nonis/Shanahan)
Tavares (Dubas)
Knies (Dubas)
McMann (Dubas)
Domi (Treliving)
Holmberg (Dubas)
Robertson (Dubas)
Laughton (Treliving)
Lorentz (Treliving)
Jarnkrok (Dubas)
Kampf (Dubas)
Pacioretty (Treliving)

Rielly (Burke)
Tanev (Treliving)
McCabe (Dubas)
Carlo (Treliving)
Ekman-Larsson (Treliving)
Benoit (Treliving)
Myers (Treliving)
*Hakanpaa (Treliving)

Stolarz (Treliving)
Woll (Lou)

*11 (Hakanpaa is still a massive question mark so more like 10) players are pure Treliving moves. This includes our 1G and most of the defence including our 1RD and 2RD. The head coach is also all Treliving.

Lou leaves behind our 1C, 1RW, and 2G. Nonis, but really Shanahan given the story around the 2014 draft, drafted Nylander, and Burke drafted Rielly.

Although Lou was the GM of Record for the three players you've put his name next to, I'm not sure how much credit he would deserve for any of the three.

For Matthews, I would say it goes back to Shanny firing Carlyle while the Leafs were in a playoff position and initiating a full rebuild (being a fringe playoff team was not good enough). Assist to Dubas for finding a way to move Kessel, and accepting a poor return because it was a lose-the-battle, win-the-war type move. Lou and Babcock also get credit for tanking to last place, but I would say Matthews is 15% Shanny/Dubas, 5% Lou/Babcock, and 80% lottery balls.

For Marner, he was drafted in the days of the five-headed monster (Shanny/Lou/Dubas/Hunter/Babcock), and it was definitely a group decision (EDIT: Lou hadn't been hired yet - so group decision between the other four). Woll I would give directly to Hunter (his one success). Hunter was hired by Shanny and ran the draft, so I don't think Lou had any involvement.

On the other hand, Dubas did build the whole scouting department when he took over, so he does get credit for being the overseer on picks like Knies. I also give him credit for Cowan even though he had been fired shortly before that, because it was still his scouting team and Tre even said he didn't get involved. But Cowan (and anyone else from that draft that turns out to be good) are Dubas' last contributions.

For Tre, by far his biggest contribution has been rebuilding the D, which I was hoping would happen when he was hired, given how good Calgary's was under Tre. I'd say he's 5/6 finished his job. Stolarz was huge as well. I also give credit to Tre for the drafts starting with Danford and others last year - even though Wes Clark was still here, Tre had been here a full year and would have worked with him on drafting strategy, etc.

Bottom line is if we see playoff success this year, it probably continues to be a Dubas/Tre hybrid team. And there's no need to exaggerate what one of them has done, or minimize what the other has done, just to suit a narrative.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

That's the result of a +26.4 goal improvement in our goaltending.
We were 12th in goals against in 2018, and 7th in 2021 and 2023.

I had more defensive concerns last year too, but that says more about our defense last year than our defense this year. Comparing to the year we massively dropped off defensively doesn't do us a ton of good. We have improved in certain aspects of defensive play, but fallen off in others. Positioning, entry denial, zone exits, tying up sticks, pressure, getting in lanes, getting to pucks, making plays with the puck, getting sticks on shots, etc. There are so many things that contribute to effective defensive play. Contrary to the beliefs of some, good defensive play isn't just about getting the biggest guys to shove people in the crease and have pucks hit them.

I agree with you totally on the bolded. I think we disagree in that our defence has a better opportunity to display these qualities in the playoffs given our personnel and style of play. We haven't had as good a shutdown pair as Tanev and McCabe in the Matthews-Marner era. They are going to log a lot of minutes. We haven't had a No. 3 as good as Carlo. OEL has Stanley Cup experience as our fourth and we hope we see playoff Rielly this year. Benoit at the very least brings physicality to the defence. I think we both agree that goaltending is going to determine how well we do, but I think Woll and Stolarz would agree that the defence has been playing extremely well in front of them allowing them to play to their potential.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

It doesn't say anything about the inherent superiority of a playstyle. Teams with all sorts of playstyles find success. Not sure what you think Dubas and Keefe have to do with this discussion. You're the only one that seems to have them top of mind.

I suppose you need to read the thread again...

 

[kevsh]

Tavares (Dubas)
Knies (Dubas)
McCabe (Dubas)

Good, comprehensive list (the original one, not the small part I'm quoting ofc)

And I isolated this trio as the only ones that are worth mentioning as they are impact players. Every other name associated with Dubas' time are completely replaceable.

I won't nitpick on how the Leafs got these 3 but if this team does go on a run this year or - gasp! - even win it all, I would recognize that Dubas should fairly get some credit. But just some.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Lou wasn't here for Marner.

Oh yeah. It was Hunter and Dubas.

 

[kevsh]

Okay, so the bias towards Toronto in Canadian sports media is a thing ...

(Look above Matthew's head if it you don't get it right away)

 

[Confucius]

This is our only real shot at going the distance, have to win round 1 in 5 or less. Currently 0 and 5 against the Sens, winning 4 of the next 7 is a tall order. But then again I forgot we are a playoff juggernaut.

Currently on a 5 game losing streak against the Sens, winning 4 of the next 7 is a tall order, even though we have proven to be playoff juggernauts.

 

[Kurtz]

This is our only real shot at going the distance, have to win round 1 in 5 or less.

What makes you say this? Did you know that over 50% of teams that sweep their opponent go on to lose in the following round? Rust/momentum is a serious factor in the NHL.