LEAFS GDT Atlantic Division - Race to the 1st

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Agreed. The only benefit of Sunday is that it allows game 4 to be next Saturday, but I'm guessing that even if they start on Monday they will adjust the schedule to put game 3 on Saturday.
A game next Saturday would be nice, but the main thing for me is I just want this thing to get started so HUGE preference for a Sunday start. I also took Monday off, so I can pretend it's Saturday. :)
 
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Of course. The future hasn't happened yet. We have to see if TOR can be better than 5 playoff wins.
How many playoff wins we end up getting doesn't change anything. It's not going to be a result of the inherent superiority of a playstyle. All playstyles have success.
Goaltending going into the playoffs is considerably better. Better goaltending can certainly factor into playoff success.
Goaltending has been a bright spot, and goaltending is indeed a massive factor in playoff success. If our goalies can maintain this, and we don't run into the kind of goaltending that we have at times in the past, we have a good chance to pick up wins.
 
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How many playoff wins we end up getting doesn't change anything. It's not going to be a result of the inherent superiority of a playstyle. All playstyles have success.

Goaltending has been a bright spot, and goaltending is indeed a massive factor in playoff success. If our goalies can maintain this, and we don't run into the kind of goaltending that we have at times in the past, we have a good chance to pick up wins.
Of course any style can win, but there is a style that gives you a higher probability of winning the Stanley Cup. All the latest Cup winners, Florida Vegas Tampa St. Louis Colorado, had their team and top players buying in to playing the style the Leafs are employing now...heavy, north-south, low event hockey. Of course it helps if you have great goaltending but it's not necessary (after all, Kuemper won a cup). I don't think you'll find many analysts agree with your point that soft, east-west hockey with smallish players gives you the best chance of succeeding.
 
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One time I was in the library and had to go to the bathroom.

There was no toilet paper so I had to sit there for a few minutes until someone else came in. I asked them to pass me some paper towel under the door. Instead he threw a cup of water on me and laughed hysterically and ran out.

I've had trust issues ever since.

Given this team's history I can understand why some fans would still have doubts about them winning the division. If ever there was a team to blow a 99% chance of success at something it's this one. It ain't over 'til it's over.

And while she might be warming up the fat lady ain't singing yet.

I'm really looking forward to these playoffs. I lived in Ottawa for a long time and been hoping the Senators make the postseason for years. I obviously hope the Leafs destroy the worst oppenent they've faced since Montreal.

But if they pull another fast one on the fans at least it's to a Canadian team I like so the pain won't hurt as bad.
 
Of course any style can win, but there is a style that gives you a higher probability of winning the Stanley Cup.
No there isn't.
All the latest Cup winners, Florida Vegas Tampa St. Louis Colorado, had their team and top players buying in to playing the style the Leafs are employing now...heavy, north-south, low event hockey.
Lol, what? No they didn't. I'm not sure where you got the idea that those teams all play the same style. Some are complete opposites.
Of course it helps if you have great goaltending but it's not necessary (after all, Kuemper won a cup).
It's not a necessity to win, but teams with underlying play like ours require it more.
I don't think you'll find many analysts agree with your point that soft, east-west hockey with smallish players gives you the best chance of succeeding.
That's not what I said, and that's never what we've had. I don't care about bad media narratives. I care about the truth.
 
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We have never "let the players stand around with impunity". That's just a lazy false narrative, made by people who don't understand that there is more than one way to defend and protect the net front. We allow more rebound shots now, and have all season. We allow the 8th most shots in general, and the 12th most high danger shots, so we're not really minimizing those either. There are aspects of defensive play that we are better at now, like shot blocking, but that has come at the cost of a lot of the other things that make up effective defensive play. We have dropped to 22nd in the league in overall defensive results.

There's nothing about the way we are playing that is inherently more successful in the playoffs. Some people have just been fooled into thinking there's only one way to be successful in the playoffs.
Are you suggesting the Leafs aren't playing a style that is focussed on defensive responsibility that traditionally has lead to more success in the playoffs? Our defence has a true shutdown pair in Tanev and McCabe. Carlo is a huge defenceman that has added size and experience to the defence. OEL and Rielly have playoff experience, and even Benoit has been solid. To suggest this defence isn't better and more prepared for the playoffs is wrong. The team isn't playing the high-risk, high flying hockey that was easily shut down in the past. That style, without the defensive awareness, doesn't often lead to success.
 
No there isn't.

Lol, what? No they didn't. I'm not sure where you got the idea that those teams all play the same style. Some are complete opposites.

It's not a necessity to win, but teams with underlying play like ours require it more.

That's not what I said, and that's never what we've had. I don't care about bad media narratives. I care about the truth.
Yeah, let's ignore all the former players and managers who say the Leafs are playing a better and different style and listen to YOUR truth because........you say so?
 
I'm not gonna get into it with Dekes because it's a completely fruitless exercise, but just know his numbers are often pulled incorrectly or he cherry picks from the source that will suit his narrative. For example, MoneyPuck has the Leafs at 12th LOWEST high danger shots against in the league at 5v5, and 5th LOWEST medium danger shots against, but 27th in low danger shots against, which actually supports that they cut off high grade chances at the expense of more perimeter shots against. We are also 12th lowest in rebound goals against, and have the 10th lowest xGA/60.
 
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Of course any style can win, but there is a style that gives you a higher probability of winning the Stanley Cup. All the latest Cup winners, Florida Vegas Tampa St. Louis Colorado, had their team and top players buying in to playing the style the Leafs are employing now...heavy, north-south, low event hockey. Of course it helps if you have great goaltending but it's not necessary (after all, Kuemper won a cup). I don't think you'll find many analysts agree with your point that soft, east-west hockey with smallish players gives you the best chance of succeeding.
There is truth to what you say but not one of those teams you mention, got caved as badly as we do 5 on 5.
So our goaltending is going to need to continue to be our backbone. The penalty kill is going to need to be better than 19th. less than 78% is woeful. You can win a cup with a less than stellar PP.

The Avs Cup with Kuemper, they were always on the attack. Makar, Rantanen, Mac and Landeskog over a point per game. Strong secondary contributions from Nichushkin, Kadri and Lehkonen. Strong support play from many others like Byram, Manson, Toews, Compher etc..

The 2nd and 3rd period against Carolina is the ideal state, where we neutralize the opponents best attack options.

I will do a breakdown of the opening series once the opponent has been established.
 
There is truth to what you say but not one of those teams you mention, got caved as badly as we do 5 on 5.
So our goaltending is going to need to continue to be our backbone. The penalty kill is going to need to be better than 19th. less than 78% is woeful. You can win a cup with a less than stellar PP.

The Avs Cup with Kuemper, they were always on the attack. Makar, Rantanen, Mac and Landeskog over a point per game. Strong secondary contributions from Nichushkin, Kadri and Lehkonen. Strong support play from many others like Byram, Manson, Toews, Compher etc..

The 2nd and 3rd period against Carolina is the ideal state, where we neutralize the opponents best attack options.

I will do a breakdown of the opening series once the opponent has been established.
The penalty killing from round 2 on is going to be important.
 
Are you suggesting the Leafs aren't playing a style that is focussed on defensive responsibility that traditionally has lead to more success in the playoffs? Our defence has a true shutdown pair in Tanev and McCabe. Carlo is a huge defenceman that has added size and experience to the defence. OEL and Rielly have playoff experience, and even Benoit has been solid. To suggest this defence isn't better and more prepared for the playoffs is wrong. The team isn't playing the high-risk, high flying hockey that was easily shut down in the past. That style, without the defensive awareness, doesn't often lead to success.

2024/2025

3.27 gf/gm, 2.86 ga/gm, 25.47 pp, 77.97 pk, 28.42 sf/gm, 47.9 HDCF%, 11.5 s%, 29.57 sa/gm, .903 sv% 16.79 blk/gm, 24.40 hit/gm

2023/2024

3.63 gf/gm, 3.18 ga/gm, 23.95 pp, 76.89 pk, 32.57 sf/gm, 52.7 HDCF%, 11.2 s%, 29.82 sa/gm, .893 sv%, 16.48 blk/gm, 27.78 hit/gm

Yup... totally different team.

All that extra hitting and blocking of shots has really made a huge difference in the shots against and the high danger chances.

The only improvement couldn't possibly be from the goalies.
 
Ottawa is being massively overrated simply because people love to crap on the Leafs. The prior versions of this team certainly deserved it. This version of the team is not the same animal. I think they will methodically steamroll a young and inexperienced Ottawa team.
This may have some contribution to the angst

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This may have some contribution to angst

View attachment 1014259

I don't have any angst. After all a lot of fans here think this team is great, so why should we fear a wildcard team that has 0 playoff experience? Some people gladly want to give Marner a 14m aav, but those same people have angst about freaking Ottawa? If they can't eliminate Ottawa, I don't know how we can say that our team is great.
 
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I don't have any angst. After all a lot of fans here think this team is great, so why should we fear a wildcard team that has 0 playoff experience? Some people gladly want to give Marner a 14m aav, but those same people have angst about freaking Ottawa? If they can't eliminate Ottawa, I don't know how we can say that our team is great.
Who are these people?
 
Are you suggesting the Leafs aren't playing a style that is focussed on defensive responsibility that traditionally has lead to more success in the playoffs?
There is no style that "traditionally has lead to more success in the playoffs". We're playing a lower event style, but we've neutered our good events more than we've prevented bad events, and our PK is so bad that our overall defensive results have still dropped off.
Our defence has a true shutdown pair in Tanev and McCabe. Carlo is a huge defenceman that has added size and experience to the defence. OEL and Rielly have playoff experience, and even Benoit has been solid. To suggest this defence isn't better and more prepared for the playoffs is wrong.
We've had shutdown pairings before. We've had big defensemen and experience before. There isn't any reason to think that this defense is better and more prepared for the playoffs. We have some good defensemen, and hopefully Carlo can help shift people into better roles and situations, but players like Benoit have really struggled this year, our forward depth has taken steps back defensively, and the combination of defensemen and/or how they're being coached and utilized leaves us with defensive concerns.
The team isn't playing the high-risk, high flying hockey that was easily shut down in the past.
We've never played "high risk, high flying hockey" in the playoffs. You need to stop listening to bad narratives. Ironically, a lot of our offensive struggles have come while shifting more towards the style we're playing now.
 
I'm not gonna get into it with Dekes because it's a completely fruitless exercise, but just know his numbers are often pulled incorrectly or he cherry picks from the source that will suit his narrative. For example, MoneyPuck has the Leafs at 12th LOWEST high danger shots against in the league at 5v5, and 5th LOWEST medium danger shots against, but 27th in low danger shots against, which actually supports that they cut off high grade chances at the expense of more perimeter shots against. We are also 12th lowest in rebound goals against, and have the 10th lowest xGA/60.
None of my numbers are cherry picked or pulled incorrectly, and I only care about facts, not narratives. We used the same source, and ironically, the reason you have different numbers is because you cherry picked 5v5, while I was discussing our overall defensive results. Maybe read the discussion next time, before falsely accusing people.

Also, very misleading of you to switch from rebound shots against to rebound goals against, to include goaltending and hide that we still allow the 8th most rebound shots at 5v5.
 
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Ok sorry, might be exaggerating. My point is, if you (not you specifically, fans in general) think our players are great then there shouldn't be angst over Ottawa. Regular season results are meaningless.
I know it's not me. I have no angst and don't want Marner(anyone for that matter) making 14m.
 
None of my numbers are cherry picked or pulled incorrectly, and I only care about facts, not narratives. We used the same source, and ironically, the reason you have different numbers is because you cherry picked 5v5, while I was discussing our overall defensive results. Maybe read the discussion next time, before falsely accusing people.

Also, very misleading of you to switch from rebound shots against to rebound goals against, to include goaltending and hide that we still allow the 8th most rebound shots at 5v5.
Absolute clown behaviour. The standard is 5v5, as that is where the vast majority of the game is played, and is used as the basis of comparison across multiple hockey / stats blogs.

You just exposed yourself - if you wanted to criticize the PK or empty net situations where the team has been terrible, then so be it, but don't paint a false picture.

Duplicitous ass.
 
There is no style that "traditionally has lead to more success in the playoffs". We're playing a lower event style, but we've neutered our good events more than we've prevented bad events, and our PK is so bad that our overall defensive results have still dropped off.

We've had shutdown pairings before. We've had big defensemen and experience before. There isn't any reason to think that this defense is better and more prepared for the playoffs. We have some good defensemen, and hopefully Carlo can help shift people into better roles and situations, but players like Benoit have really struggled this year, our forward depth has taken steps back defensively, and the combination of defensemen and/or how they're being coached and utilized leaves us with defensive concerns.

We've never played "high risk, high flying hockey" in the playoffs. You need to stop listening to bad narratives. Ironically, a lot of our offensive struggles have come while shifting more towards the style we're playing now.
We are playing a low event, safer style of hockey that focusses on reducing mistakes and being more physical. We have dramatically improved defensively lowering our GAA from 3.18 to 2.85 putting us at 12th in the league. This defensive improvement has made us harder to beat and more difficult to play against. Of course the goaltending improvement plays a part in that, but so does the improvement on the defence, both the type of players and their ability. Is Tanev better than anyone else on last year's playoff roster? Is Carlo better than Lybushkin? Is OEL better than Edmundson? I have seen a big improvement from our defence on being tough around the net, boxing out, battling for pucks, and blocking shots. Our forward depth is more than adequate compared to last year's. I had more defensive concerns last playoffs than I will these playoffs.
 
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