I went to Vegas years ago with some friends and one of them had this brilliant idea on how he could win at roulette.
It's the double-down theory whereby you bet $5 on black (or red) and if you win, great you're up $5. If you lose you double the bet on the next round. So if you lose one but win the 2nd you win $5 net (bet $5 + $10, win $20). So even you lose 5 in a row but win on the 6th, you still win $5 (do the math, it checks).
His theory was that in order for him to fail he'd have to lose something like 9 or 10 in a row - in which case he'd have to bet thousands at a time, all to win $5. And the odds of it being red 10 times in a row is ridiculous, so it sounds like a sure thing.
But I warned him repeatedly not to do it. The short version: Odds on paper are meaningless. Guess what happened? A few of us played blackjack while he did his thing. And within an hour we saw him nearly lose his s**t at the roulette table. It went red 9 times in a row. He was down $2500 and had to get an advance on his credit card. If he lost the next one ... Thankfully for him, he won and that was the end of that.
Sorry for the way too long story to prove a point but 2% is completely irrelevant. And to further drive home the point, what do you think the odds were on Toronto losing the series to the Habs when they were up 3-1? 10%? 5%? 2%? Or Edmonton even getting to game 7 down 3-0 last year?
Lesson being don't ever point to something like long odds and assume something will happen that hasn't. Real life doesn't know or care about odds. Of course Toronto will likely get the division but until it happens, they haven't.
/sermon