LEAFS GDT Atlantic Division - Race to the 1st

[Eternal Leaf]

Should be exciting to face off against a new team in the playoffs if they hold onto 1st.

 

[TorMapleJays]

It was 4-1.

 

[Seras]

I recall that season where the Burke / Nonis Leafs had like a 99.8% chance to make the playoffs with 14 games remaining and went 2-12 down the stretch. Never underestimate this team's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

You do realize that a the only thing in common with that team is the logo on the jersey?

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

You do realize that a the only thing in common with that team is the logo on the jersey?

Seems to be all you need with this franchise sometimes. But yes- hopefully this year is truly different.

 

[Seras]

Seems to be all you need with this franchise sometimes. But yes- hopefully this year is truly different.

It will be different regardless of the outcome, every year is different.

 

[mikeyz]

I need a bit of help with this. What is the rational basis on which you believe that the Leafs will get no points against Buffalo and Detroit? In all seriousness, is the answer simply "well, it could happen", because you are right that I will have no response for that. What do you think the odds are on Toronto losing two games in a row, including one at home, against Buffalo and Detroit based on how it has played against those two teams this season and where each team currently is at this time of the season? 5%? 1% The likelihood of it happening is extremely low, let alone combining it with Tampa also winning both of its games in regulation. It is so statistically insignificant that only a Leafs fan would say that it could "easily" happen.

I do agree that we are 99.9% clear, but, make no mistake about it, we are likely going to have to get that extra point ourselves to officially clinch, because I don’t think we can rely on Tampa losing both of their upcoming games. Especially Tuesday night against the Panthers. I think the Panthers are going to take a dive in that game in 1 last ditch effort to try and draw us in the 1st round.

 

[Seras]

They are 8-1-1 in their last 10, including a very good TB team at home where they have dominated all season.

A little optimism wouldn't kill you, it might even make things a little fun

 

[1specter]

I do agree that we are 99.9% clear, but, make no mistake about it, we are likely going to have to get that extra point ourselves to officially clinch, because I don’t think we can rely on Tampa losing both of their upcoming games. Especially Tuesday night against the Panthers. I think the Panthers are going to take a dive in that game in 1 last ditch effort to try and draw us in the 1st round.

Ottawa is mathematically locked into WC1. Panthers can finish no lower than third in the Atlantic.

 

[TMLAM34]

We just need 1 point in these final 2 games or Tampa to loose 1 of their remaining 2 games.

 

[Evilhomer]

It was 4-1.

If you are predicting the outcome of the first round, then I think you are right. Leafs will beat Ottawa in 5 games.

 

[QJo]

I do agree that we are 99.9% clear, but, make no mistake about it, we are likely going to have to get that extra point ourselves to officially clinch, because I don’t think we can rely on Tampa losing both of their upcoming games. Especially Tuesday night against the Panthers. I think the Panthers are going to take a dive in that game in 1 last ditch effort to try and draw us in the 1st round.

FLA is playing their first round opponent with home ice on the line. That is an 8 game series because of that game. It should be a hard fought game.

 

[MCR74]

If you are predicting the outcome of the first round, then I think you are right. Leafs will beat Ottawa in 5 games.

Sounds about right, and then we'll be treated to vast amounts of coping by Ottawa "fans".

 

[Jojalu]

If you are predicting the outcome of the first round, then I think you are right. Leafs will beat Ottawa in 5 games.

In the end, it looks like your prediction will end up correct.

You just took a round about way to get there.

There was no 10 point lead by the end of Jan, there was never a time they ran away with it.

The lead will be 8 point max but probably 5 or 6.

But, the teams most likely finish where you thought.

More importantly, I hope to God, your playoff prediction comes true and the Leafs are in the Conference Fialls against Car

 

[kevsh]

BUT IT COULD EASILY HAPPEN!

I went to Vegas years ago with some friends and one of them had this brilliant idea on how he could win at roulette.

It's the double-down theory whereby you bet $5 on black (or red) and if you win, great you're up $5. If you lose you double the bet on the next round. So if you lose one but win the 2nd you win $5 net (bet $5 + $10, win $20). So even you lose 5 in a row but win on the 6th, you still win $5 (do the math, it checks).

His theory was that in order for him to fail he'd have to lose something like 9 or 10 in a row - in which case he'd have to bet thousands at a time, all to win $5. And the odds of it being red 10 times in a row is ridiculous, so it sounds like a sure thing.

But I warned him repeatedly not to do it. The short version: Odds on paper are meaningless. Guess what happened? A few of us played blackjack while he did his thing. And within an hour we saw him nearly lose his s**t at the roulette table. It went red 9 times in a row. He was down $2500 and had to get an advance on his credit card. If he lost the next one ... Thankfully for him, he won and that was the end of that.

Sorry for the way too long story to prove a point but 2% is completely irrelevant. And to further drive home the point, what do you think the odds were on Toronto losing the series to the Habs when they were up 3-1? 10%? 5%? 2%? Or Edmonton even getting to game 7 down 3-0 last year?

Lesson being don't ever point to something like long odds and assume something will happen that hasn't. Real life doesn't know or care about odds. Of course Toronto will likely get the division but until it happens, they haven't.

/sermon

 

[ToneDog]

If you are predicting the outcome of the first round, then I think you are right. Leafs will beat Ottawa in 5 games.

Based on their 0-3 record in the regular season? I get regular season results don't mean much come playoff time, but the Sens will not be easy to play against and if they can cancel out Matty, the series will go more than 5 games.

 

[ToneDog]

We just need 1 point in these final 2 games or Tampa to loose 1 of their remaining 2 games.

Tampa needs 2 regulation wins and 2 Leafs regulation losses to win the Atlantic. All but a lock for the Leafs but I see them resting 2 or 3 players each of the next two games, so anything is possible. Tampa may also lose a point to Florida if that game is for 2nd place.

 

[Jojalu]

Tampa needs 2 regulation wins and 2 Leafs regulation losses to win the Atlantic. All but a lock for the Leafs but I see them resting 2 or 3 players each of the next two games, so anything is possible. Tampa may also lose a point to Florida if that game is for 2nd place.

I wonder if TB and Florida try to set a tone for the playoffs tomorrow, or have a family skate night trying to get no one injured.

Home ice is still on the line but unlikely for Florida

 

[Fogelhund]

Tampa needs 2 regulation wins and 2 Leafs regulation losses to win the Atlantic. All but a lock for the Leafs but I see them resting 2 or 3 players each of the next two games, so anything is possible. Tampa may also lose a point to Florida if that game is for 2nd place.

It's not clear whom you are referring to, with resting players the next two games. Leafs lack the cap room to do so.

 

[Jojalu]

It's not clear whom you are referring to, with resting players the next two games. Leafs lack the cap room to do so.

Laughton needs to play 30 mins on Thu if they clinch on Tue.

 

[dangomon]

Based on their 0-3 record in the regular season? I get regular season results don't mean much come playoff time, but the Sens will not be easy to play against and if they can cancel out Matty, the series will go more than 5 games.

Prefacing this with: this isn't me saying the Sens will be easy and that we're guaranteed a win.

One of the reasons I don't fear the Sens is they can't "Cancel out Matty" because they don't have the elite defensive C that our previous playoff opponents have had. They don't have a Danault, Cirelli/Point. Barkov/Lundell, Bergeron, who they can hard match.

Ottawa will be more of a fight-fire-with-fire sort of matchup for our top line. This also means that if Matthews/Marner/etc. don't produce you can't really blame anyone but them.

 

[ToneDog]

It's not clear whom you are referring to, with resting players the next two games. Leafs lack the cap room to do so.

I am thinking Marner, Matthews, Tavares, Nylander and Tanev. You make a good point, an option might be to play with a shorter roster.

 

[ACC1224]

Prefacing this with: this isn't me saying the Sens will be easy and that we're guaranteed a win.

One of the reasons I don't fear the Sens is they can't "Cancel out Matty" because they don't have the elite defensive C that our previous playoff opponents have had. They don't have a Danault, Cirelli/Point. Barkov/Lundell, Bergeron, who they can hard match.

Ottawa will be more of a fight-fire-with-fire sort of matchup for our top line. This also means that if Matthews/Marner/etc. don't produce you can't really blame anyone but them.

Even if they do cancel out the top line, the second line has to feast on the easier matchup they'll receive.
Team will be in good shape if that occurs.

It was good to see Nylander return this weekend, hopefully he stays interested for an extended run.

 

[ToneDog]

Prefacing this with: this isn't me saying the Sens will be easy and that we're guaranteed a win.

One of the reasons I don't fear the Sens is they can't "Cancel out Matty" because they don't have the elite defensive C that our previous playoff opponents have had. They don't have a Danault, Cirelli/Point. Barkov/Lundell, Bergeron, who they can hard match.

Ottawa will be more of a fight-fire-with-fire sort of matchup for our top line. This also means that if Matthews/Marner/etc. don't produce you can't really blame anyone but them.

Excellent point. I can see Brady and the Sens trying to get under his skin and taking a few runs at him and make life difficult for him (hell I would if I were Green). Break his will, and you may not need that shutdown C.

 

[Warden of the North]

Tampa needs 2 regulation wins and 2 Leafs regulation losses to win the Atlantic. All but a lock for the Leafs but I see them resting 2 or 3 players each of the next two games, so anything is possible. Tampa may also lose a point to Florida if that game is for 2nd place.

I don't think there's any chance the Leafs rest players until they've secured the Atlantic.

 

[ACC1224]

Is there any worry that OEL or more importantly McCabe may not be ready to go by Game 1?