LEAFS GDT Atlantic Division - Race to the 1st

The Leafs average like 2.1 goals a game in the playoffs.

The goaltending obviously an issue, is not the biggest one.

They're 2 way to see it...

watch number of goal and think the issue is number of goal

or

watch the game and watch how the team played in front...When exemple the team playing good, did the goalie gave up a bad goal who's killing momemtum?

I giving you 2 different exemple on back to back game... Last serie vs Florida

gm 1 Florida took a 2 goal lead and leafs came back immeduatly strong and tie it in 6 minutes and bring full momemtum on their side. Verhaeghe got a scoring chance and Samsonov react poorly by losing his footing and gave up a rd goal... So unstead of coming back after 2 tie with momemtum on their side, momemtum just flip right before end of 2nd. One goal who's killed leafs swing... Maybe if Samsonov just doing this save, unstead of losing 4-2, maybe coming back with momemtum on 3rd who result in a 4-2 win, who's know?

gm 2, leafs played a great 1st period with a 2-1 lead, Samsonov giving up a awful goal...That toal completly killed leafs momemtum and Florida benefit of it to score again couple of second later... If 2nd goal doesn't happen, leafs would still play with momemtum and confidence and maybe unstead of losing it 3-2, maybe it would be a 4-1 win, who's know.

Last game vs Florida, if Stolarz don't make the save on greer, maybe it's a 2-1 or 3-1 lost unstead of a 3-2 win

Hockey is a game of momemtum, if you're losing it everytime you're goalie don't make save he should, that will everytime affect the offensive side.
 
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Washington won the cup the year after
Boston made the finals in 2019 after beating us
Tampa won 2 cups and made 3 finals, including the year they beat us
Florida went to the final after beating us, won the cup the following year
Montreal went to the finals after they beat us
The fact remains that we were HUGE favorites against both Florida and Montreal. The fact that they were able to do what we should have done doesn't make me feel any better, and it definitely doesn't make me feel like just shrugging off those losses.

And are we really going to pretend that MTL was some beastly opponent? Every now and then a really weak team makes it to the finals, that doesn't mean they're still not a really weak team and they always seem to get pounded in the finals. Ottawa is another recent example that comes to mind. The Leafs should have pounded MTL and the fact that MTL went to the finals doesn't change that fact even one little bit.
 
The fact remains that we were HUGE favorites against both Florida and Montreal. The fact that they were able to do what we should have done doesn't make me feel any better, and it definitely doesn't make me feel like just shrugging off those losses.

And are we really going to pretend that MTL was some beastly opponent? Every now and then a really weak team makes it to the finals, that doesn't mean they're still not a really weak team and they always seem to get pounded in the finals. Ottawa is another recent example that comes to mind. The Leafs should have pounded MTL and the fact that MTL went to the finals doesn't change that fact even one little bit.
Montreal series was a choke job

Sandin losing the foot race despite like a 15 foot headstart leading to the GWG against

Galchenyuk had that brutal giveaway in OT

Joe Thornton slow as a snail, got beat badly in a foot race too

We should've crushed MTL, with or without Tavares. Absolute choke job.

But they did sweep Winnipeg right after and make it all the way to the finals, so you have to give them credit for that.
 
gm 1 Florida took a 2 goal lead and leafs came back immeduatly strong and tie it in 6 minutes and bring full momemtum on their side. Verhaeghe got a scoring chance and Samsonov react poorly by losing his footing and gave up a rd goal... So unstead of coming back after 2 tie with momemtum on their side, momemtum just flip right before end of 2nd. One goal who's killed leafs swing... Maybe if Samsonov just doing this save, unstead of losing 4-2, maybe coming back with momemtum on 3rd who result in a 4-2 win, who's know?

gm 2, leafs played a great 1st period with a 2-1 lead, Samsonov giving up a awful goal...That toal completly killed leafs momemtum and Florida benefit of it to score again couple of second later... If 2nd goal doesn't happen, leafs would still play with momemtum and confidence and maybe unstead of losing it 3-2, maybe it would be a 4-1 win, who's know.
They did play pretty well in the first 2 games, that's true. Unfortunately, consistency has eluded this bunch over the years and I'll help you out in case you've forgotten how game 3 played out.

gm 3, with the season on the line in a must win game the Leafs were never really in the game and they got crushed. They played as if they were uninterested, and Marner led the way as the worst player on the ice playing perhaps the worst game if his entire career and looked like a nervous rookie while doing so.
 
People can tie themselves into whatever pretzel they want to argue that Tampa or Florida will catch the Leafs, but neither team will. When people have to try so hard to find the exception, it means the rule is pretty solid.
I wouldn't celebrate just yet. The Leafs are obviously solid favorites at this point but the entire season has been full of ups and downs, and all it takes is a couple of bad games for the lead to evaporate.
 
Montreal series was a choke job

Sandin losing the foot race despite like a 15 foot headstart leading to the GWG against

Galchenyuk had that brutal giveaway in OT

Joe Thornton slow as a snail, got beat badly in a foot race too

We should've crushed MTL, with or without Tavares. Absolute choke job.

But they did sweep Winnipeg right after and make it all the way to the finals, so you have to give them credit for that.
It's Montreal, I don't have to give them credit for shit. ;)
 
The fact remains that we were HUGE favorites against both Florida and Montreal. The fact that they were able to do what we should have done doesn't make me feel any better, and it definitely doesn't make me feel like just shrugging off those losses.

And are we really going to pretend that MTL was some beastly opponent? Every now and then a really weak team makes it to the finals, that doesn't mean they're still not a really weak team and they always seem to get pounded in the finals. Ottawa is another recent example that comes to mind. The Leafs should have pounded MTL and the fact that MTL went to the finals doesn't change that fact even one little bit.
They never should have been favourites against Florida. The guys setting the line made a horrible mistake.

Forida was clearly the better team the year before, that year, and the year after.

Bob struggled for a bit and they fell behind early and had to battle to make the playoffs but they were a damn good team.
 
They did play pretty well in the first 2 games, that's true. Unfortunately, consistency has eluded this bunch over the years and I'll help you out in case you've forgotten how game 3 played out.

gm 3, with the season on the line in a must win game the Leafs were never really in the game and they got crushed. They played as if they were uninterested, and Marner led the way as the worst player on the ice playing perhaps the worst game if his entire career and looked like a nervous rookie while doing so.

It's how goaltending can hurt you. Get a goalie who's stoling goal after goal in a side and a goalie giving up weak goal... It's basically like starting a game down 2-0. Do you think you can play pretty confident without any hesitation that way? Because it was it is and start playing with hesitation is a huge killer
 
They never should have been favourites against Florida. The guys setting the line made a horrible mistake.

Forida was clearly the better team the year before, that year, and the year after.

Bob struggled for a bit and they fell behind early and had to battle to make the playoffs but they were a damn good team.
Sure, let's go with that.
 
It's how goaltending can hurt you. Get a goalie who's stoling goal after goal in a side and a goalie giving up weak goal... It's basically like starting a game down 2-0. Do you think you can play pretty confident without any hesitation that way? Because it was it is and start playing with hesitation is a huge killer
There's is no excuse for the way they played in game 3 with the season on the line. Not goaltending, not anything else. Don't you ever get tired of making excuses for these guys playing like garbage and losing?
 
They never should have been favourites against Florida. The guys setting the line made a horrible mistake.

Forida was clearly the better team the year before, that year, and the year after.

Bob struggled for a bit and they fell behind early and had to battle to make the playoffs but they were a damn good team.
The Panthers were the 8th seed and the Leafs had just broken through their R1 barrier

Everyone in the world rightly thought the Leafs should win that series
 
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People can tie themselves into whatever pretzel they want to argue that Tampa or Florida will catch the Leafs, but neither team will. When people have to try so hard to find the exception, it means the rule is pretty solid.
There are still six games left and two of them are in B2B against these same Florida teams, Leafs are far from having nailed this door shut. I'm not particularly superstitious but I've lived long enough to see far crazier outcomes in sports. Leafs just need to take care of each game, one at a time, gets points in every game.

What I am apt to do though, is view a team holistically both in terms of substance and style/personalities. They matter in a teams makeup. I will try to assess it here.

The biggest difference with this team is that Brad worked his magic to pick up some players that weren't on anyones radar and he built from the back out. The correct way based on historic precedence. I don't know if it will be enough based on the failings of this core, however, there is an obvious difference in their commitment level at times. Consistency is key. They play with the intensity and "the right way" every game and they are as big a threat as any team. It's all about will and sacrifice.

Stolarz probably being the biggest surprise of all. He and Woll are close, which is good. They are a true tandem, a Jennings Award type tandem. My guess is that they would both be here together for a few years if they happened to win a Cup this season.

Then there was Tanev who some were disappointed in when he was picked up. I reserved judgement as I don't watch many Calgary games. He to me has been the MVP this year for this team. The guy is just so steady and reliable. He and McCabe are lights out against other teams top forwards. That is an assignment that they embrace. A pair that has a lunch bucket mentality.

The entire defense has their identity. None of the D Men are particularly outgoing, they are low key, "get it done" types, which is what you want as a core. Carlo was a great addition and it was the surprise gift from Brad that would be a difference maker. Another puck eater with size and who already dropped the gloves to let his team know "I'm part of the pack now too guys". Excellent pick up.

Then there is Berube who brings a different approach and who has tried to get the players out of their old habits and into playing a 200 foot game with a bigger focus on driving the net and standing up for one another. As a former enforcer he has credibility when he speaks about the importance of fighting together and for each other as a team. It's a real challenge to correct this teams old Crown Corporation mentality but he has them focused on the nuances in the process, not just personal stats of goals and assists.

Leafs have depth at all positions now. The personnel fully prepared for the playoffs. The issue will always remain "do they have the sacrifice in them"? Winning the division would be a big psychological boost no doubt as it would confirm "yes, we will rise to the challenge in the big games" which all games will be from here on out.

I'm not going to gaslight myself, but I'm also not going to deny what I see and to acknowledge that I do genuinely see a different attitude in the team since the deadline. They are more bound as a team. More willing to get in the trenches with one another. That is huge in team sports.
 
Said it before, but I think we need 2 of 3 things to happen to make a deep run...

1) Elite core players dominate
2) Significant production from secondary scoring guys
3) Top notch goaltending
 
Replace the word team with players, and do you agree?

They've outplayed the players a lot, and the goaltending has been the difference.

That is all anyone ever says, and for some reason, it is a hard point for some to grasp.
It’s not that people don’t grasp it, it’s just a weak excuse altogether. Based on the cap structure, the other goalies should be better than ours and our forwards should outplay theirs.

Problem is that our stars get paid to outplay the other goalie too which they never seem to do, yet somehow other teams find a way.

So everyone saying stuff like “goalies stood on their head” is weak and shifts blame away from our players even though they very clearly deserve it given it happens year after year.
 
Ottawa 4 points behind FLA, I think FLA is in more trouble if they can't start putting it together soon. They are missing Tkchuck,Barkov (only a few games now) and Ekblad, but you generally don't want to go into the playoffs slumping, hard to just "turn it on".
 
It’s not that people don’t grasp it, it’s just a weak excuse altogether. Based on the cap structure, the other goalies should be better than ours and our forwards should outplay theirs.

Problem is that our stars get paid to outplay the other goalie too which they never seem to do, yet somehow other teams find a way.

So everyone saying stuff like “goalies stood on their head” is weak and shifts blame away from our players even though they very clearly deserve it given it happens year after year.

Based on cap hits, Knies should be producing like a 4th liner, the cap hit argument is lazy and not reality.

No excuses were made, goalies outplay other players all the time, this happened in a few series.

Are you saying that because Bobrovsky is making 10 million, he should be able to stop all players not making at least his cap hit? What exactly is the argument?

Our depth never shows up, maybe we need to play goalies with a lower cap hit, like Swayman last year... oh wait.
 
Standings are so precarious right now. On one hand, Florida losing would keep them 6 points behind us with a game in hand. On the other hand, Ottawa is too close to Florida for my liking and the last thing we need is to win the division only for Florida to tank and face us in round 1.

So stupid. Best outcome for today I suppose is both Ottawa and Florida lose. No one gains ground on anyone.
 
No one wants to have this discussion... our defensive play and keeping the puck out of the net was never an issue.

Good thing we doubled down, got worse offensively, and tried to get better defensively though.

We'll finish the regular season scoring 30-40 less goals this year than last, yes. But is it due to our new style, or is it simply the difference between AM getting 69 last year and 30 this year?
 
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There's is no excuse for the way they played in game 3 with the season on the line. Not goaltending, not anything else. Don't you ever get tired of making excuses for these guys playing like garbage and losing?

It's not excuse but just understand how thing working and it's the same thing whatever wich team playing.

Hesitation = basically taking 1/2, 1 second to react on every play... so You're late on every play and could easily look like lack of work. If you're hesitate, you will start to be more passive than active be because you will overthink everything and at the end just frozing.

Leafs 1st 2 game was clearly the best team on the ice...some stats after 2
tor/fla
SF 73-57 = + 128%
SCF 75-51 = +147%
HDC 36-19 = + 189%
XGF 8,49 vs 5,91 = + 2,58

You're completly outplayed your opponent but down 2-0. The way the played both game, they should be up 2-0 and at worst tie 1-1, clearly not down 2-0. Leafs had been better vs Florida than tampa, the difference was they're only one goalie who played like a goalie should play in playoff
 
We'll finish the regular season scoring 30-40 less goals this year than last, yes. But is it due to our new style, or is it simply the difference between AM getting 69 last year and 30 this year?

What is the new style? Dump and chase hockey?

They have had better defensive stats in years past...
 
People can tie themselves into whatever pretzel they want to argue that Tampa or Florida will catch the Leafs, but neither team will. When people have to try so hard to find the exception, it means the rule is pretty solid.

If Tampa wins tomorrow night, they're within 2 points and it will be very tight to win the division. Even if we beat Florida Tuesday, if Tampa wins against us on Wednesday, it 's back to just a 2 point lead leaving very little room for error. And even after the B2B we have this week, there's still another after that. NHL scheduling is horrible.
 
Based on cap hits, Knies should be producing like a 4th liner, the cap hit argument is lazy and not reality.

No excuses were made, goalies outplay other players all the time, this happened in a few series.

Are you saying that because Bobrovsky is making 10 million, he should be able to stop all players not making at least his cap hit? What exactly is the argument?

Our depth never shows up, maybe we need to play goalies with a lower cap hit, like Swayman last year... oh wait.
What? No of course not. I’m saying that Florida, Montreal, Tampa, all built their team by relying on an elite goaltender. Their cap hits reflect that.
We decided to cheap out on our goaltending rather than go out and get one of the best in the league.

It’s a decision made by management on how to build the teams so anyone acting shocked that we get outplayed in net isn’t paying attention. No shit we’re going to get outplayed in net. It’s expected and using it as an excuse as to why we lost is a weak argument.
 
What? No of course not. I’m saying that Florida, Montreal, Tampa, all built their team by relying on an elite goaltender. Their cap hits reflect that.
We decided to cheap out on our goaltending rather than go out and get one of the best in the league.

It’s a decision made by management on how to build the teams so anyone acting shocked that we get outplayed in net isn’t paying attention. No shit we’re going to get outplayed in net. It’s expected and using it as an excuse as to why we lost is a weak argument.

Florida used their backup in the playoffs the year they beat us, Bobrovsky wasn't starting the playoffs because he was so bad.

We do best against Vasi.

Swayman likely has the best numbers against us and had a 3 million dollar cap.

Cap hit is not the only way to evaluate a goaltender, just FYI.

It isn't an excuse, you seem to be mixing up excuses and factual statements, but carry on.
 
Florida used their backup in the playoffs the year they beat us, Bobrovsky wasn't starting the playoffs because he was so bad.

We do best against Vasi.

Swayman likely has the best numbers against us and had a 3 million dollar cap.

Cap hit is not the only way to evaluate a goaltender, just FYI.

It isn't an excuse, you seem to be mixing up excuses and factual statements, but carry on.
It’s a representation of the fact that certain teams build their teams from the net out and others go offence heavy. Yes there are exceptions to cap hits reflecting that, but it’s not hard to understand the relationship.

And I’m not confusing anything, it seems you are. Again, everyone understands that we got outplayed in net. It’s a fact, agreed. It’s also a fact that their goalie outplayed our stars, agreed. However people use these facts all the time as an excuse by indicating that the goalies standing on their heads is out of our control and that we were just unlucky we happened to play those teams but it’s such a weak mentality and excuse, and absolutely not the case. We could have beat them if we played to our potential, regardless of their goalies playing amazing. Because again, they built their team expecting their goalies to play amazing and we built ours expecting our stars to do the same. Only one of those is true.
 

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