LEAFS GDT Atlantic Division - Race to the 1st

When the playoffs start, I expect the Leafs will be favourites over Tampa and Carolina, but not Florida (for obvious reasons) and Washington (because the conference leader usually gets the benefit of the doubt).

Need your crystal ball.

With Panthers limping into the playoffs.

Senators could move within 4 points of the Panthers with a win Saturday.

Sens play 5 of the last 6 games at home?

Odds Sens end up 3rd. in the Atlantic and the Panthers are 1st. WC team?

So 1st. place in Atlantic would play the Panthers, and Caps would get the worst WC team?
 
Need your crystal ball.

With Panthers limping into the playoffs.

Senators could move within 4 points of the Panthers with a win Saturday.

Sens play 5 of the last 6 games at home?

Odds Sens end up 3rd. in the Atlantic and the Panthers are 1st. WC team?

So 1st. place in Atlantic would play the Panthers, and Caps would get the worst WC team?
I think the more likely scenario is that Ottawa stumbles and loses a couple of games down the stretch, which would make it hard for them to overcome a 4-6 point deficit to Florida. Ottawa may have to worry more about being caught by Montreal.
 
Need your crystal ball.

With Panthers limping into the playoffs.

Senators could move within 4 points of the Panthers with a win Saturday.

Sens play 5 of the last 6 games at home?

Odds Sens end up 3rd. in the Atlantic and the Panthers are 1st. WC team?

So 1st. place in Atlantic would play the Panthers, and Caps would get the worst WC team?
Now that would be something. Finally finish first to get an easier matchup and Florida fall to WC1.

Never gave it a thought but it is possible. If you are the Panthers, do you want to face Tampa or Toronto? One can guess who Matthew Tkachuk would choose.

Panthers @ Sens, @ Wings, Leafs, Wings, Sabres, NYR, @ Tampa

Sens Panthers, CBJ, @ CBJ Habs, Flyers, Hawks, Canes
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: bax
I think the more likely scenario is that Ottawa stumbles and loses a couple of games down the stretch, which would make it hard for them to overcome a 4-6 point deficit to Florida. Ottawa may have to worry more about being caught by Montreal.
A Sens win over Florida this afternoon could make it interesting.
 
A Sens win over Florida this afternoon could make it interesting.
I expect Ottawa to win today, but I think they will lose at least three of their remaining games after that, including one to Montreal, which will make it near impossible to overtake Florida.
 
Now that would be something. Finally finish first to get an easier matchup and Florida fall to WC1.

Never gave it a thought but it is possible. If you are the Panthers, do you want to face Tampa or Toronto? One can guess who Matthew Tkachuk would chose.

Panthers @ Sens, @ Wings, Leafs, Wings, Sabres, NYR, @ Tampa

Sens Panthers, CBJ, @ CBJ Habs, Flyers, Hawks, Canes

If florida just win 3 game in last 7, Ottawa would need to finish with 6-0-1 to finish in front of Florida. It would be extremely surprising to see Ottawa finish in front
 
So Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares is on the same level as Ovi, Backstrom, Kuznetsov and Oshie? I thought they were better but I guess we were all fooled.
Matthews, Marner, Nylander are all better than Backstrom/Kuznetsov/Oshie. But I'm not really sure what your post was supposed to mean ?

The only 2 series that I could say we definitely 100000% should have won were the Columbus/Montreal series

Lost in 7 to prime Tampa
Lost to prime Florida
Lost in 7 to prime Boston twice

And then obviously the game 7 lost to Boston last year

Point is we played some really good teams and had some really competitive series. Those teams have all declined since, and we've gotten better. Tampas looking lethal again lately but overall vs a couple years ago, their team has gotten weaker.

Ovechkin and the Caps are proof, that failing or choking in the playoffs in previous years is not some guarantee that you'll lose again.

Now if you guys wanna pout, whine and complain about the team before the playoffs even start be my guest. Who am I to tell you not to ?

Personally though, I like the way this team has played this year, I like the additions to the roster and I am especially happy with our coaching staff.

It's been rough for us but ask yourselves, how many other teams beat that prime Boston team that featured Chara, Bergeron, Rask, Pastrnak, Krejci, Mcavoy ? They lost to Tampa, and the Isles who took Tampa to 7, and the Blues in 7 in the Cup final.

How many teams beat that prime Tampa Bay team ? Spoiler, it was only us and Colorado. The one time we did lose to Tampa, was a game 7 with very questionable officiating.

How many teams beat the Panthers ? Only Vegas in the cup final

I'm optimistic about our team and context absolutely matters when discussing playoffs. We're not playing dog shit teams in the 1st round every year like the Pacific division does, we get difficult match ups and actually compete.

But again, if you wanna whine and complain about the last several years of failure, go for it. I personally won't and call me an idiot IDC I am optimistic about this team this year, because of how they have played and the commitment by the entire team to a 200ft playoff type of game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Metroid
If florida just win 3 game in last 7, Ottawa would need to finish with 6-0-1 to finish in front of Florida. It would be extremely surprising to see Ottawa finish in front

Ottawa has the 5th. easiest schedule.
Tampa 14th.
Florida 18th.
Leafs 21st.
 

Ottawa has the 5th. easiest schedule.
Tampa 14th.
Florida 18th.
Leafs 21st.

They can have an easy schedule but 1 regulation lost or Florida just playing for 0.500 and it's basically over for Ottawa..
 
That was the series he was .936/1.84 with a SO.
The pathetic perimeter game the leafs played that series was never gonna beat anyone in the playoffs. Columbus was a mediocre team, which Tampa subsequently proved by ousting them in 5 games the very next series. Goaltending on both sides was good.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LeafEgo
The pathetic perimeter game the leafs played that series was never gonna beat anyone in the playoffs. Columbus was a mediocre team, which Tampa subsequently proved by ousting them in 5 games the very next series. Goaltending on both sides was good.

Leafs outchanced Columbus in HDCF and their heatmap does look like they got to the slot a lot.

Columbus had amazing goaltending...

Screenshot 2025-04-05 at 1.27.14 PM.png


People like to pretend that there have not been some amazing goaltending performances against the Leafs for some reason.

The Leafs shot under 2% at 5v5 that series...
 
Leafs outchanced Columbus in HDCF and their heatmap does look like they got to the slot a lot.

Columbus had amazing goaltending...

View attachment 1006678

People like to pretend that there have not been some amazing goaltending performances against the Leafs for some reason.

The Leafs shot under 2% at 5v5 that series...

The heat map is based on location, correct?

I do not see where it takes into account screens, shot velocity, shooter capability.

So a shot by marner = a shot by Matthews.

Is it possible Leafs come up short in the goalie department not because of the shooter, but the traffic in front? One goalie can see the shot, one goalie cannot?

"been some amazing goaltending performances against the Leafs for some reason."

Is the "some reason" unknown or ignored?
 
  • Like
Reactions: IPS
But again, if you wanna whine and complain about the last several years of failure, go for it. I personally won't and call me an idiot IDC I am optimistic about this team this year, because of how they have played and the commitment by the entire team to a 200ft playoff type of game.

It's not "several" years, it's 8.

You can be optimistic all you want but no amount of spin changes the fact that they are 1-8 in playoff series under Shanahan. They've been the higher seed (or higher/equal points) than 4 opponents: Went 1-3. That is it, that is the story. And of course 0-5 as underdogs.

Game 7s? Close series? Tough opponents? Injuries? Fair excuses for one year, maybe two. Not 8 years.

Now none of that means this year will be the same, nor does it mean they'll perform any better. But what isn't really up for reasonable debate is that in the previous 8 seasons, collectively they've been an absolute failure come playoff time.
 
It's not "several" years, it's 8.

You can be optimistic all you want but no amount of spin changes the fact that they are 1-8 in playoff series under Shanahan. They've been the higher seed (or higher/equal points) than 4 opponents: Went 1-3. That is it, that is the story. And of course 0-5 as underdogs.

Game 7s? Close series? Tough opponents? Injuries? Fair excuses for one year, maybe two. Not 8 years.

Now none of that means this year will be the same, nor does it mean they'll perform any better. But what isn't really up for reasonable debate is that in the previous 8 seasons, collectively they've been an absolute failure come playoff time.
The last 8 years have nothing to do with how this year will turn out, that is all
 
Leafs outchanced Columbus in HDCF and their heatmap does look like they got to the slot a lot.

Columbus had amazing goaltending...

View attachment 1006678

People like to pretend that there have not been some amazing goaltending performances against the Leafs for some reason.

The Leafs shot under 2% at 5v5 that series...

Who cares? If the Leafs are as great as people claim, they overcome good goaltending against them and score on some of those chances. Every team in the playoffs will have good goaltending, for the most part. You're not going to face 4 teams with weak goaltending on your way to wining the cup. Stop with the excuses.
 
Now none of that means this year will be the same...
That's a whole lot of words to say you agree.
... previous 8 seasons, collectively they've been an absolute failure come playoff time.
Losing to Washington with 19 year old Marner and Matthews was a failure? To Boston with our top three scorers 21 and under? Hell, even the next year we were far from favourites. You can be frustrated we can't get over, but to call all eight of those seasons failures is wildly entertaining for all the wrong reasons. We weren't supposed to be making the playoffs that quickly into the rebuild.
 

Ad

Ad