ATD2011 Louis Magnus Finals: (1) Regina Pats vs. (3) North Pole Penguinators

[jarek]

I don't have the time to do any of that. I have a major project and exam, all on Friday. If you're willing to wait, I can address everything on Saturday (assuming series threads are still open by then). Until then, I have little time for anything other than school, and a spot post here and there.

As got Novy. Look what he did internationally and that should give you a barometer of how he might have done in the NHL. His intangibles, while largely unknown from an anecdotal standpoint, are somewhat substantiated by jkrx, VMBM, and a few newspaper quotes. As far as his offense, with how absolutely dominant he was in the Czech league, I'd say it's more appropriate to put him on the higher end of that scale than the lower end. The Czech league at that time had very good players in it, INCLUDING Nedomansky (who Novy regularly outscored, I do believe).

As for Northcott, yes, I did just do that. I don't have time to go in depth about anything this week, so if he's willing to help me out, that's his choice. On Friday evening, I can dig through newspapers and see what else I can find, but I imagine HHH already found most of the good stuff.

So, now that that's settled, anything else I can briefly touch on?

 

[markrander87]

Nothing wrong with Northcott as a 2nd line glue guy of course. He's similar to Prentice or Oatman. Martinec is an outstanding 2nd line RW as well. It's Novy that probably has some concerned about its effectiveness, including me. There's lots to like, there's some not to like, and there are question marks.

Last draft jarek and I got cold feet on taking him to center a 3rd scoring/checking line and ended up taking MacLeish over him. MacLeish is (in the regular season, at least), one of the weakest 2nd line centers offensively. Now Novy may or may not be better than him, but how much better? And at 31 he came to the NHL and didn't accomplish a heck of a lot - how do we project this into how good he'd have been in the NHL throughout his 20s? Was he a top-10 scorer? top-20? A perrennial 65-75 point guy like Lysiak? It's really tough to say.

Almost every other 2nd line center in the league is a known commodity as far as their North American offensive production is concerned. I would be scared ****less of taking Novy, personally.

Sorry just wanted to bold this......Carry on

 

[BraveCanadian]

Sorry just wanted to bold this......Carry on

You might wear out that good will that people extended you in your previous series with childish things like this.. Please note what is in the parentheses in the quote from seventies.

 

[Leafs Forever]

Sorry just wanted to bold this......Carry on

I'm glad you have such a great sense of humour that you find all my jokes so hysterical...

Look, MacLeish didn't have a "bad" career or anything. The guy was 4th in NHL scoring twice and top-20 two other times. .

Keep it in your own thread mark.

 

[seventieslord]

I don't have the time to do any of that. I have a major project and exam, all on Friday. If you're willing to wait, I can address everything on Saturday (assuming series threads are still open by then).

They won't be.

I mean, we don't close the threads here so you can be my guest, but I'll be starting the voting process Thursday in accordance with the policy of getting the later series done quickly. there is less and less to talk about as you go further in the playoffs.

But you can still go ahead. I want to see it. Saturday it will be too late to affect anyone's vote, but in the interests of research...

 

[Sturminator]

As I've said before, we have to take Novy's scoring finishes in the Czech league with a grain of salt because he played for Kladno, which was essentially the Czech equivalent of CSKA Moscow, including the political elements. Novy's international performances are probably the best measure of what kind of player he was, and there he was good, but not super-great. Between the Olympics and WEC-A competition, Novy's best scoring finishes are 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 6th.

As far as the business about Novy being "the answer to Bobby Clarke", strong defensively, a good penalty killer and all of this business...I'm no expert on Milan Novy, but I have to say that I don't really buy it. In general, I take a dim view of "evidence" that comes from other posters here unless I know that they have extensive knowledge of the players in question - and I don't think that's the case here. Novy is a strong offensive second line center. I'm not sure you should really try to sell him as more than that.

 

[jarek]

They won't be.

I mean, we don't close the threads here so you can be my guest, but I'll be starting the voting process Thursday in accordance with the policy of getting the later series done quickly. there is less and less to talk about as you go further in the playoffs.

But you can still go ahead. I want to see it. Saturday it will be too late to affect anyone's vote, but in the interests of research...

My "interest" in research will more likely go towards school that I am paying 37,000 for than this.. wouldn't you say that would be a wise choice?

As I've said before, we have to take Novy's scoring finishes in the Czech league with a grain of salt because he played for Kladno, which was essentially the Czech equivalent of CSKA Moscow, including the political elements. Novy's international performances are probably the best measure of what kind of player he was, and there he was good, but not super-great. Between the Olympics and WEC-A competition, Novy's best scoring finishes are 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 6th.

As far as the business about Novy being "the answer to Bobby Clarke", strong defensively, a good penalty killer and all of this business...I'm no expert on Milan Novy, but I have to say that I don't really buy it. In general, I take a dim view of "evidence" that comes from other posters here unless I know that they have extensive knowledge of the players in question - and I don't think that's the case here. Novy is a strong offensive second line center. I'm not sure you should really try to sell him as more than that.

The PK report came from a game against Canada in the Canada Cup, where his PK'ing was praised by the North American paper. The idea of his strong defensive play came from, again, a North American paper during the year of his draft. Not sure how much more unbiased the reports can get than that. I'll see if I can dig up the draft paper again.

 

[seventieslord]

My "interest" in research will more likely go towards school that I am paying 37,000 for than this.. wouldn't you say that would be a wise choice?

This is obviously not life and is just a hobby. You can only do what you can do.

 

[jarek]

Here is some more stuff to substantiate Novy's intangibles:

"... particularly captain Milan Novy's determined puck-ragging and digging ..."

http://news.google.com/newspapers?i...pg=2010,3573481&dq=milan+novy+defensive&hl=en

The above is that 5 on 3 that Novy was out for against Canada that I referred to.

"which he used to select Milan Novy, a superb defensive center from the Czechoslovakian National Team."

http://docs.newsbank.com/g/GooglePM/PI/lib00187,0EB2954FE13DA5A2.html

I'll try to get the full text of this article, but the meaning is pretty plain. That's from his draft.

We probably already knew this, but here's something about his skating abilities, I guess:

"Milan Novy an agile forward"

http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/chicago...une&desc=U.+S.+kids+Czech-ed+5-0&pqatl=google

I can probably find other tidbits here and there, but the two major ones that I found I posted here.

Also, apparently Novy's first NHL season was hampered a rib injury he sustained early on in the season. While I'm not one to blame injuries for poor production, it does explain why he might have struggled in the NHL:

http://news.google.com/newspapers?i...pg=5530,6622440&dq=milan+novy+defensive&hl=en

"Novy had more than a decade of experience in Czechoslovakia behind him, and, after a slow start because of a rib injury, has 11 goals, 20 assists."

Rib injuries are probably one of the worst injuries to have in any sport. You can't do much without feeling significant pain.

Also, another reason that is much more likely to partly explain his lack of production, was that he seemed to get virtually no power play time. He was on the ice for 16 PP goals for. Dennis Maruk, the team's leading scorer, and a much more established commodity by that point (and quite likely the first line center, ahead of Novy), was on the ice for 43. In fact, Novy didn't seem to get much ice time at all - he was on the ice for 63 goals total, 48 of which he contributed to. When he WAS on the ice, he seemed to be the driving engine behind the offense for his line. Dennis Maruk (81 points to 113 goals on ice for) had a very similar ratio of points to goals on ice for. Take from this what you will, but I don't think Novy's first season was as bad as his point total would indicate.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Come on, guys. No Messier vs MacTavish trash talk?

 

[BraveCanadian]

Come on, guys. No Messier vs MacTavish trash talk?

I was waiting for Turgeon!

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Come on, guys. No Messier vs MacTavish trash talk?

As for my Northcott comment, I like the amount of offense he brings for a "second line glue guy."

 

[jarek]

Well, MacT isn't going to shut down Messier, but his Pelletier bio at least mentions that he has speed and toughness, so he should be able to physically handle Messier, at least. Also, MacT had one of the best faceoff percentages of all time when he retired.

Truly, his biggest asset was his faceoff ability. ‘MacT’, as he became known, would finish his career with one of the highest faceoff winning percentages in league history, and that was a huge factor in him winning four Stanley Cups.

http://thehockeyguys.net/?p=2190

One of the most important aspects of defensive hockey is, obviously, having the puck, and MacT should be able to win faceoffs against Messier more often than not, if we are to believe the anecdotes. This should be a pretty significant advantage for me.

 

[jarek]

I was waiting for Turgeon!

I find my second line a good match against that line. Northcott and Cashman should have some wild battles against each other, and Martinec vs. Adams will definitely be a battle of speed vs. power (and I've heard that Adams wasn't very fast, so if Martinec has the puck, Adams won't be able to do much against that). Regardless of what you think of either of them offensively, Novy definitely has intangible advantages over Turgeon as well.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Well, MacT isn't going to shut down Messier, but his Pelletier bio at least mentions that he has speed and toughness, so he should be able to physically handle Messier, at least. Also, MacT had one of the best faceoff percentages of all time when he retired.

He isn't going to get beaten to a pulp by Messier but I don't know if he is going to "handle" him as in contain him from being a physical force.

MacTavish was good at faceoffs though, you're right.

http://thehockeyguys.net/?p=2190

One of the most important aspects of defensive hockey is, obviously, having the puck, and MacT should be able to win faceoffs against Messier more often than not, if we are to believe the anecdotes. This should be a pretty significant advantage for me.

I don't remember Messier as being anything other than average at faceoffs, so you could be right here.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Novy definitely has intangible advantages over Turgeon as well.

That shouldn't be a bar that is too hard to pass, for sure.

 

[jarek]

I suppose handle Messier physically is the wrong word. There aren't many guys who wouldn't be outmatched physically against Messier, and I'm not going to say MacTavish is one of them. However, like you said, I don't think Messier is going to turn him into a bloody pulp either.

Ideally, I would have drafted Otto, but he didn't make it to me.

 

[jarek]

Also, one other thing about Sturm's idea of trying to determine a guy's impact based on the low end and high end of a career - does this take into account the length of these high and low periods? Novy's "low" period came when he was 31, in his first season in the NHL, with apparently limited minutes, especially on the power play, while his high was one of the most dominant Czech players in Czech league history. I definitely feel if we're going to take this approach, he'll show up somewhere much closer to the high end than the low end. The same argument is likely applied to Krutov, for most people.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Was Novy showing signs of age before he came to North America?

 

[jarek]

Was Novy showing signs of age before he came to North America?

The Capitals GM mentioned when Novy came over that "most of the Czech players were past their prime". However, I did mention and prove that he wasn't getting the greatest amount of minutes, especially on the PP, he was hampered by an injury, and in the minutes that he DID get, he contributed to a high amount of the goals for that he was on the ice for.

Here is what Poile said: The Caps, meanwhile, got center Milan Novy, who turned out to be a bust. "Most of the Czechs were well past their prime," Poile said.

http://docs.newsbank.com/g/GooglePM/LA/lib00086,0EF51561E2051B8C.html

 

[Sturminator]

Also, one other thing about Sturm's idea of trying to determine a guy's impact based on the low end and high end of a career - does this take into account the length of these high and low periods? Novy's "low" period came when he was 31, in his first season in the NHL, with apparently limited minutes, especially on the power play, while his high was one of the most dominant Czech players in Czech league history. I definitely feel if we're going to take this approach, he'll show up somewhere much closer to the high end than the low end. The same argument is likely applied to Krutov, for most people.

You are misunderstanding. Weighing the possibilities of a somewhat unknown player's talent is what we're talking about here - evaluating how good could might he have been x (likelihood of upside) vs. how bad might he have been x (likelihood of downside) - and producing some sort of composite value through this method.

Novy's NHL performance is of only marginal interest, as he was clearly past his prime. I believe what seventies is trying to get at is that there remains a fairly wide range of possible values for Novy, and we cannot just assume the upside. On this point, I agree.

 

[jarek]

You are misunderstanding. Weighing the possibilities of a somewhat unknown player's talent is what we're talking about here - evaluating how good could might he have been x (likelihood of upside) vs. how bad might he have been x (likelihood of downside) - and producing some sort of composite value through this method.

Novy's NHL performance is of only marginal interest, as he was clearly past his prime. I believe what seventies is trying to get at is that there remains a fairly wide range of possible values for Novy, and we cannot just assume the upside. On this point, I agree.

Personally, if we are going to project his possible NHL impact throughout his prime, I would put it somewhere between what he accomplished internationally (the hardest, toughest stage, at least for Novy) and his Czech league dominance (obviously lower than the NHL).

I think this sort of depends on where you place the relative level of competitiveness of the NHL compared to international competitions.

 

[seventieslord]

Also, MacT had one of the best faceoff percentages of all time when he retired.

that was really, really poor word choice in that article and you do yourself a disservice by duplicating it. Yes, MacTavish was a good faceoff man. An alll-time great? That's the first I've heard of it. One of the best percentages of all-time? Impossible to quantify, as his last season was before faceoffs were tracked.

In the 1990 THN, Messier and MacTavish were both on the Oilers and a list of top faceoff men by team listed Messier for the Oilers.

And yeah, Mess was excellent on faceoffs. He was 54.6% from 1999-2004, at age 37-43. imagine what it would have been, back when he was a physical force. Quotes in my bio call him a great faceoff man for a period spanning the entire time he was a center.

I'm surprised you'd attempt to say you have a big faceoff advantage without doing at least a little more research.

and I've heard that Adams wasn't very fast,

Where did you hear this?

Also, one other thing about Sturm's idea of trying to determine a guy's impact based on the low end and high end of a career - does this take into account the length of these high and low periods? Novy's "low" period came when he was 31, in his first season in the NHL, with apparently limited minutes, especially on the power play, while his high was one of the most dominant Czech players in Czech league history. I definitely feel if we're going to take this approach, he'll show up somewhere much closer to the high end than the low end. The same argument is likely applied to Krutov, for most people.

Like Sturm said...

 

[BraveCanadian]

And yeah, Mess was excellent on faceoffs. He was 54.6% from 1999-2004, at age 37-43.

Wow that is much better than I would have expected.

His faceoff ability wasn't really played up much compared to some players.

 

[jarek]

The thing is, I don't think Novy is all that unknown. You guys can pretend to believe that all you want. We know his Czech league finishes, in a very good era of Czech hockey at the top, we know his international finishes.. how is this any different than looking at guys like Mikhailov, who never played in the NHL?

As far as MacT, at worst, I break even on faceoffs.. 50% is still a great ratio.

As for Adams, I've heard adjectives like "plodding skating style".. where I found that, I don't know, and I won't know, because I don't have the books that would have had that information anymore.