ATD 2013 - Draft Thread V

[Johnny Engine]

With our eighteen selection, the 553rd in this year All-Time Draft, les Nordiques de Québec are very proud to select, from Cudworth, Saskatchewan, Canada, C Orland Kurtenbach

''We are extremely please to add such a dedicated player in Orland Kurtenbach. An incredible team player, Kurtenbach was the first captain of the Vancouver Canucks, and for many years, filled that role. One of the toughest, most terrorizing player of his generation, Kurtenbach was an incredible fighter. It's hard to ask more of a role player than what Orland brings to the table, and will play on the fourth line alongside Mel Bridgman.''

Definitely would have gone out of my way to draft him as my 4th line center if I had missed out on Otto as my 3rd line guy.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

In light of some of the recent discussion, we are going to move Ryan Kesler to the RW on our 4th line, where his lack of even strength offense will not be as much of a factor, and where he will really be able to use his great forechecking ability. We select Craig Conroy to be our new 4th line center, who has much better even strength offense, and a great Selke record as well. Conroy and Kesler will each center one of our PK units.


Selke Record: 2, 3, 6, 12, 12, 16, 17, 20


Adjusted Even Strength Points

Conroy | Bergeron | Richards | Kesler
62 | 57 | 50 | 56
57 | 55 | 47 | 47
53 | 52 | 47 | 46
51 | 51 | 35 | 35
51 | 38 | 32 | 34
48 | 33 | 30 | 26
40 | 27 | 28 | 20
39 | 5 | | 7
33 | | |
32 | | |
27 | | |
18 | | |
17 | | |

 

[Sturminator]

In light of some of the recent discussion, we are going to move Ryan Kesler to the RW on our 4th line, where his lack of even strength offense will not be as much of a factor, and where he will really be able to use his great forechecking ability. We select Craig Conroy to be our new 4th line center, who has much better even strength offense, and a great Selke record as well. Conroy and Kesler will each center one of our PK units.

That's the guy I was talking about. Conroy is quite similar to the other three in terms of defensive value as ES and on the PK, but he's got a considerably better offensive record as ES, mainly because he has a full career behind him. He's always been sort of a forgotten man in the ATD, but Conroy is definitely worthy of starting on a 4th line here.

 

[BubbaBoot]

As Ryan Kesler and Mike Richards are drafted, I'll follow up with a similar player with a similar career.

Patrice Bergeron, C

Bergeron is the 25th player to be awarded the Triple Gold Pin for winning the World Championships, Olympic Gold, and the Stanley Cup​

Bergeron plays for a division rival of my favourite team, and I see a lot of him. I hate the Bruins but I have a ton of respect for Bergeron, as well as former Sen Zdeno Chara. Those two guys have been the heart and the core of the Boston Bruins in the past few seasons, and Boston has been one of the very best teams in the league over that time.

Accomplishments

• Bergeron was voted the Selke Trophy as the league's best defensive forward in 2011-12. He finished top 5 in voting for the trophy in the two previous seasons.
• Bergeron was a playoff hero for the Bruins in 2010-11, leading their main matchup line and scoring two goals in the Cup-winning Game 7.
• Bergeron was a part of the gold medal winning Team Canada in the 2010 Olympics.
• Bergeron has won more regular season faceoffs than any other player since the beginning of the 2009-10 season. His faceoff percentage is the fourth highest over that time.
• Bergeron's ranks in SHTOI among forwards on his team since 2008-09: 3, 2, 1, 1, 2
• Bergeron led the NHL in plus-minus last season and is currently leading in this season

Quotes
SI:

etc.......

Hah, I was just looking at him. He's my favorite player right now, Bruin or otherwise. I was thinking maybe yes, maybe no, is he ready for the ATD? I would say at this stage, yes, at the very least, as a 4th liner. If he stays healthy he will be talked about like we talk about, adding fuel to discussions about the the Backstroms, Gaineys, Carbonneaus, Pecas, etal....

 

[overpass]

That's the guy I was talking about. Conroy is quite similar to the other three in terms of defensive value as ES and on the PK, but he's got a considerably better offensive record as ES, mainly because he has a full career behind him. He's always been sort of a forgotten man in the ATD, but Conroy is definitely worthy of starting on a 4th line here.

Also in part because of Jarome Iginla.

Here are Conroy's offensive ES totals as posted by HT18 again, with seasons in which Iginla was his regular winger bolded.

62
57
53
51
51
48
40
39
33
32
27
18
17

(note that there was an extra 27 and 22 in HT18's table, probably from partial seasons with one team being double counted alongside the full season numbers.)

One of the 51's was with Pavol Demitra in 2005-06. The other 51 and the 48 are from Conroy's 97-98 and 98-99 seasons, in which he did an excellent job as a checking line centre.

Conroy's far from the first support player to be drafted, but none of Kesler, Richards, or Bergeron has played alongside a HOFer for several years in their prime, so the point comparison is apples to oranges.

I want to be careful not to mention undrafteds so I won't go into detail but Kesler, Richards, and Bergeron have all usually been the best offensive player on their line.

 

[BubbaBoot]

Continuing my quest for a balanced team with a lot of options and versatility, I'm adding a quality, press box 3rd or 4th line / 3rd blue line pairing penalty killing antagonist to be inserted into the lineup when needed.

The Boston Mules select Reggie Fleming - F/D.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

(note that there was an extra 27 and 22 in HT18's table, probably from partial seasons with one team being double counted alongside the full season numbers.)

Thanks for catching that, it's been fixed.

 

[BubbaBoot]

ck26 has been PMed.

 

[Bourque]

Bergeron is the first MLD player taken. I sent a long list to HT and BB. HT received it, but is leaving in an hour so I sent it to overpass, Sturm, Johnny Engine, and ck26.

 

[ck26]

Dallas will grab another sandpapery, two-way winger for the collection ... from Humboldt, Saskatchewan ... LW Ross Lonsberry

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Also in part because of Jarome Iginla.

Here are Conroy's offensive ES totals as posted by HT18 again, with seasons in which Iginla was his regular winger bolded.

62
57
53
51
51
48
40
39
33
32
27
18
17

(note that there was an extra 27 and 22 in HT18's table, probably from partial seasons with one team being double counted alongside the full season numbers.)

One of the 51's was with Pavol Demitra in 2005-06. The other 51 and the 48 are from Conroy's 97-98 and 98-99 seasons, in which he did an excellent job as a checking line centre.

Conroy's far from the first support player to be drafted, but none of Kesler, Richards, or Bergeron has played alongside a HOFer for several years in their prime, so the point comparison is apples to oranges.

I want to be careful not to mention undrafteds so I won't go into detail but Kesler, Richards, and Bergeron have all usually been the best offensive player on their line.

I think the Iginla factor is something that should be considered. Does anyone have an idea on how much Conroy should be discounted here? I have taken a look at those seasons and in all but one Iginla outscored Conroy by a good amount at even strength. The one year where they were close was 2003, where Conroy had 53 adjusted ESP and Iginla 58 in 79 and 75 games respectively.

I think that Conroy should get full credit for his 2005-06 season. Demitra only played 58 games to Conroy's 78, and they averaged the exact same adjusted ESP per game.

I still think Conroy is at the top of the group because he has so much more longevity, although it's much closer than it was before (especially to Bergeron).

 

[overpass]

I think the Iginla factor is something that should be considered. Does anyone have an idea on how much Conroy should be discounted here? I have taken a look at those seasons and in all but one Iginla outscored Conroy by a good amount at even strength. The one year where they were close was 2003, where Conroy had 53 adjusted ESP and Iginla 58 in 79 and 75 games respectively.

I think that Conroy should get full credit for his 2005-06 season. Demitra only played 58 games to Conroy's 78, and they averaged the exact same adjusted ESP per game.

I still think Conroy is at the top of the group because he has so much more longevity, although it's much closer than it was before (especially to Bergeron).

I'll throw out some data in case it's helpful.

Season | Iginla/Conroy ESP | Conroy ESP | Iginla %
2001-02 | 31 | 47 | 66%
2002-03 | 25 | 40 | 63%
2003-04 | 13 | 29 | 45%
2006-07 | 12 | 26 | 46%
2007-08 | 13 | 30 | 43%
2008-09 | 18 | 45 | 40%
2009-10 | 5 | 15 | 33%

 

[Sturminator]

I want to be careful not to mention undrafteds so I won't go into detail but Kesler, Richards, and Bergeron have all usually been the best offensive player on their line.

All of them also only have about five seasons that are even halfway acceptable offensively by ATD standards. Conroy's 6th season+ doesn't blow them away because of Jarome Iginla, but because they are still green. He's well ahead of the other three in terms of adjusted even strength points going down to seven seasons, and far, far ahead if you go past that.

edit: Kesler and Richards have only three seasons that are good scoring years by ATD standards, and Bergeron has four. The biggest issue here is not Iginla's influence, but their relative lack of meaningful prime seasons.

 

[overpass]

I think the Iginla factor is something that should be considered. Does anyone have an idea on how much Conroy should be discounted here? I have taken a look at those seasons and in all but one Iginla outscored Conroy by a good amount at even strength. The one year where they were close was 2003, where Conroy had 53 adjusted ESP and Iginla 58 in 79 and 75 games respectively.

OK, I'm going to post a new statistical method I just tried out. This may be completely out to lunch but I'll just throw it out there. Feel free to ignore if it doesn't make any sense.

Let's look at Conroy's prime (1997-98 through 2008-09). Oddly enough he played every single season with either Jarome Iginla or Pavol Demitra at a time when both were among the best scorers in the league. I'm going to see how well Conroy's scoring tracks the % of time he played with them, and try to find the bump in his scoring that could be attributed to that.

Major assumption: % of even strength points scored with Iginla or Demitra is the independent variable and overall even strength points (adjusted and per game) is the dependent variable. Meaning that if Conroy plays more with either Iginla or Demitra at even strength his scoring will increase. Of course the reverse could be the case - if his scoring increases he will play more with Iginla or Demitra. I'll ignore that for now.

How much did Conroy play with them? I'll estimate that by looking at the percentage of Conroy's even strength points in which either Iginla or Demitra also received a point. This will be shown as Iginla/Demitra %

Season | $ESP | GP | $ESP/82 | Iginla/Demitra %
1998 | 51 | 81 | 52 | 3%
1999 | 48 | 69 | 57 | 8%
2000 | 27 | 79 | 28 | 18%
2001 | 32 | 83 | 32 | 4%
2002 | 62 | 81 | 63 | 66%
2003 | 53 | 79 | 55 | 63%
2004 | 40 | 63 | 52 | 45%
2006 | 51 | 78 | 54 | 41%
2007 | 33 | 80 | 34 | 46%
2008 | 39 | 79 | 41 | 43%
2009 | 57 | 82 | 57 | 40%

Then I'll run a regression in which Iginla/Demitra% is the independent variable and $ESP/82 is the dependent variable.

Result: Craig Conroy's $ESP/82 for a given season can be predicted by the equation 40.5 + 20.9*(Iginla/Demitra%)

So 40.5 $ESP/82 is the baseline level for Conroy over this time if he doesn't play at all with Iginla or Demitra. If they share in 100% of his EV points then we'd expect him to score 61.4 $ESP/82. For all actual seasons we will predict something in between.

Let's add back in the actual seasonal variation for Conroy, but subtract the "Iginla/Demitra factor" and see what it looks like.

Season | $ESP | GP | $ESP/82 | Iginla/Demitra % | Predicted $ESP/82 (given Iginla/Demitra%) | $ESP/82 minus Iginla/Demitra factor
1998 | 51 | 81 | 52 | 3% | 41 | 51
1999 | 48 | 69 | 57 | 8% | 42 | 55
2000 | 27 | 79 | 28 | 18% | 44 | 24
2001 | 32 | 83 | 32 | 4% | 41 | 31
2002 | 62 | 81 | 63 | 66% | 54 | 49
2003 | 53 | 79 | 55 | 63% | 54 | 42
2004 | 40 | 63 | 52 | 45% | 50 | 43
2006 | 51 | 78 | 54 | 41% | 49 | 45
2007 | 33 | 80 | 34 | 46% | 50 | 24
2008 | 39 | 79 | 41 | 43% | 49 | 32
2009 | 57 | 82 | 57 | 40% | 49 | 49

Basically I used the prediction equation to predict $ESP/82 for Conroy in each season, based on his Iginla/Demitra%. I took the difference between that prediction and 40.5 (his baseline level) and subtracted it from his actual $ESP/82. This gives the result shown in the rightmost column - an estimate of Conroy's $ESP performance with the Iginla/Demitra factor removed.

This method discounts Conroy's production by up to 20%, which may be a bit high. Subjectively I would have said 10% or maybe 15% in the top season before I ran these numbers.

edit: Kesler and Richards have only three seasons that are good scoring years by ATD standards, and Bergeron has four. The biggest issue here is not Iginla's influence, but their relative lack of meaningful prime seasons.

Looking beyond just "scoring years" to general contribution, I think they each have five meaningful seasons (working on their sixth, or 5.5th, or whatever.) Conroy has over twice that, which is definitely an advantage in his favour and very possibly enough to give him the edge overall. But I don't think he has any kind of peak advantage.

 

[Sturminator]

Looking beyond just "scoring years" to general contribution, I think they each have five meaningful seasons (working on their sixth, or 5.5th, or whatever.) Conroy has over twice that, which is definitely an advantage in his favour and very possibly enough to give him the edge overall. But I don't think he has any kind of peak advantage.

Oh, I agree with you there. I don't think Conroy was ever a better player than those three are right now...it's just that he did his thing over a full career.

I'll have to give your methodology some thought. I would like to develop a system to account for the influence of linemates, but it's a very difficult nut to crack. I experimented with such a system some years back when comparing Frank Boucher and Howie Morenz, but it was purely arbitrary stuff, without a lot of rigor behind it. At first blush, I think the above is probably overly hard on Conroy, especially as it does not account for zone changes and such (lugging the puck up ice from the defensive to the offensive zone), where Conroy was obviously very strong and likely helped Iginla, to some extent.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Really good pick to work with Sather.

I know his record isn't as impressive as a lot of other coaches due to coaching a lot of so-so teams in his career, but based on his innovation and impact on hockey, Roger Nielson could easily be a head coach in this... the guy lived and breathed hockey.

Thanks. That was my thinking as well. I see Neilson as basically a much more accomplished version of the assistant Sather had in real life - Neilson (like Sather) is in the HHOF as a builder, after all.

Sather was the big picture guy, the bench boss, and the motivator. His real life assistant helped run practices, remind his players to play defense (at least in the playoffs), and focus on day-to-day strategies, all of which are Neilson strengths.

I'm working on a very comprehensive Sather profile, but one thing mentioned was that during the 1994 World Championships, head coach Sather studied the other teams and determined what basic system he wanted to run (which of course was an offense-first system). But Sather was praised a lot by his assistant coaches for giving them a lot of freedom within the framework of the big picture. So I don't think there's any concern with clashing with the more defensive-minded Neilson at all. (The 1994 World Championships ended up being the first gold medal that Canada won in that tournament since 1961).

Viking Maniacs selects coach Jacques Demers.

He's one of the coaches who said that Sather was his idol.

Continuing my quest for a balanced team with a lot of options and versatility, I'm adding a quality, press box 3rd or 4th line / 3rd blue line pairing penalty killing antagonist to be inserted into the lineup when needed.

The Boston Mules select Reggie Fleming - F/D.

Good pick.

 

[Bourque]

... I sent a long list to HT and BB. HT received it, but is leaving in an hour so I sent it to overpass, Sturm, Johnny Engine, and ck26.

I won't be around much this weekend. If one of these guys can pick for me or forward my list, it would be great.

 

[Dwight]

I'll close up my starting D unit...

Don Awrey, D

King Clancy - Bob Baun
Lionel Conacher - Pat Egan
Don Awrey - Jerry Korab

 

[tony d]

I'll close up my starting D unit...

Don Awrey, D

King Clancy - Bob Baun
Lionel Conacher - Pat Egan
Don Awrey - Jerry Korab

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Swamp Devils select a two-way center so talented that he was selected twice in 2012..

Bill Thoms, C

2nd Team All Star Center in 1935-36
3rd Hart Trophy Voting in 1941-42 and received multiple votes for the All Star teams at all three forward positions

Points – 4th(1936), 6th(1942), 7th(1928), 19th(1941)
Goals – 1st(1936), 19th(1942), 20th(1928)
Assists – 4th(1942), 5th(1928), 9th(1934), 14th(1943), 16th(1941)

VsX scores: 95, 86, 83, 73, 65, 60, 51, 50

Bill Thoms was a quiet, underrated player whose outstanding contributions never got the credit he deserved. In parts of seven seasons in Toronto he played in the shadow of the great Joe Primeau. Then was traded to Chicago where the weak Black Hawks struggled for wins and respect
...
Though he was noted more as a playmaker than goal scorer, Thoms and Charlie Conacher led the NHL in goals in 1935-36 with 23. That year Thoms centered a line with xxx and Finnigan, and made the second all-star team. Although he didn't have the polish of Joe Primeau, he was nevertheless an excellent two-way center and got his share of points.
...
He played five good years for the Black Hawks where he quietly continued to be one of the NHL's best two-way centers. He was said to be very adept with the poke-check and was a very good stickhandler.

Some people claim that the style of hockey played today makes stick checking of the old type, once used so sucessfully by the such "greats" as Frank Nighbor, Bill Thoms, Joe Primeau, and Frank Boucher, an ineffective skill. However any...

-Lloyd Percival, The Hockey Handbook, 1961, pg 178 (unfortunately google books doesn't have the rest of the quote)

Manger Paul Thompson of the Chicago Blackhawks is mighty happy with the way his first line of Bill Thoms, Doug Bentley, and Bill Mosienko are rounding into shape for the NHL wars.

When Minneapolis sports fans attend the Hawks intra-squad exhibition here next Wednesday, they will see "the fastest line in the National Hockey League," he said.

Calgary Herald, Oct 21, 1943

He was obtained from the Toronto Maple Leafs in 1938 and was an outstanding player at center, left wing, and defense.

Windsor Daily Star, Jan 10, 1945

I'll see if I can find more references to Thoms playing defense - if he did, then his percentage scores would actually underrate his offense.

 

[BubbaBoot]

Bergeron is the first MLD player taken. I sent a long list to HT and BB. HT received it, but is leaving in an hour so I sent it to overpass, Sturm, Johnny Engine, and ck26.

I just got home from my skate. I have GMM's list. I should be around this evening, anyone else receive it and will still be around also?

 

[BubbaBoot]

I'll close up my starting D unit...

Don Awrey, D

King Clancy - Bob Baun
Lionel Conacher - Pat Egan
Don Awrey - Jerry Korab

That is one tough defensive unit....there's going to be some banging....

 

[Dreakmur]

That is one tough defensive unit....there's going to be some banging....

... Banging their sticks on the ice after they get walked around for goals!!

 

[BraveCanadian]

Agonizing over this pick but going with:

RW, Kevin Dineen

 

[Dwight]

... Banging their sticks on the ice after they get walked around for goals!!

Ha, not likely.