ATD 2012 - Draft Thread I

[nik jr]

Lalonde is a good playmaker but he's an even better goal scorer. And he's not going to get as many chances to score if he's feeding Bossy. Lalonde was the best player available IMO so he definitely wasn't a bad pick by any means, but I don't know if he and Bossy would get the most out of each other.

agree, but bossy is a very underrated playmaker. his passing ability is masked somewhat by being a shooter more than a passer, but bossy was in the top 4 in assists per game twice, and 6 times (in 10 seasons) in the top 15 in assists.

if lalonde and bossy play together, they should have a playmaker at LW.

The NHA's leaders were more spread out, and the PCHA was top-heavy that season.

how do you decide how to rank them?

i don't think consolidated stats have much meaning, b/c they played in different leagues with different rules.

And yeah, there is a good case that the defensemen Nighbor played with in real life were more active offensively than he was, do he does seem to work well with Kelly

depends on which period

in nighbor's prime, he was a great scorer, but for most of the '20s, he played as a sort of defensive midfielder.

I can't talk about it fully without mentioning undrafteds, but he seems to be one of those guys who started as a rushing defensman and developed his defensive game in the second half of his career.

In the first half of his career, he woukd be among the league leaders in points, but not an all star. There were some posts to this effect during the HOH defensemen project.

He's still great defensively here - just not as great as canon holds. And his offense is better than generally thought

horton also played RW, i think, sometimes earlier in his career.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

I'm the next guy up, and probably calling it a night soon. Is there anyone that's going to be on here all night that can take a list?

Send it here.

 

[Dreakmur]

I'm the next guy up, and probably calling it a night soon. Is there anyone that's going to be on here all night that can take a list?

I can

 

[Dreakmur]

how do you decide how to rank them?

It wasn't a subjective ranking.

It's all based on equalizing the differences between the leagues with a numeric formula.

As an example, if the NHA played 18 games, and the PCHA played 24 games, then the PCHA guys get their numbers multiplied by 0.75 to equalize the games played. I also looked at goals per game averages each season, and made adjustments for that.

Right now, I am looking through the assists per goals ratios through the leagues, and will be creating a formula to equalize that as well.

i don't think consolidated stats have much meaning, b/c they played in different leagues with different rules.

That is something to consider, but how would the rules impact the consolidated numbers?

 

[BenchBrawl]

Great Nik Jr. Nighbor bio:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=23959895&postcount=22

 

[BraveCanadian]

Joe Sakic and Paul Coffey bios are up..

 

[nik jr]

It wasn't a subjective ranking.

It's all based on equalizing the differences between the leagues with a numeric formula.

As an example, if the NHA played 18 games, and the PCHA played 24 games, then the PCHA guys get their numbers multiplied by 0.75 to equalize the games played. I also looked at goals per game averages each season, and made adjustments for that.

Right now, I am looking through the assists per goals ratios through the leagues, and will be creating a formula to equalize that as well.

That is something to consider, but how would the rules impact the consolidated numbers?

differences between leagues with different rules and different numbers of players cannot be equalized with a formula.

 

[Dreakmur]

differences between leagues with different rules and different numbers of players cannot be equalized with a formula.

It ceraintly does equalize the numbers - that's exactly what it's designed to do. You didn't respond to my question, though. How would the rules impact the consolidated scoring levels?

If the scoring rates were higher for some reason, the fomrula accounts for that. If the rates were lower for some reason, the formula accounts for that too.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

It ceraintly does equalize the numbers - that's exactly what it's designed to do. You didn't respond to my question, though. How would the rules impact the consolidated scoring levels?

If the scoring rates were higher for some reason, the fomrula accounts for that. If the rates were lower for some reason, the formula accounts for that too.

The only thing I can think of is if one league is less balanced than the other...The scoring level of that league may not be higher because the high scoring top teams get balanced out by the low scoring bad teams, but the players on those good teams would be at an advantage when compared to players in a more balanced league that couldn't rack up "easy" points against bad teams.

I'm not saying this actually happened, I have no idea...just saying what could be a potential problem.

Sending my list now...

 

[Dreakmur]

The only thing I can think of is if one league is less balanced than the other...The scoring level of that league may not be higher because the high scoring top teams get balanced out by the low scoring bad teams, but the players on those good teams would be at an advantage when compared to players in a more balanced league that couldn't rack up "easy" points against bad teams.

I'm not saying this actually happened, I have no idea...just saying what could be a potential problem.

Sending my list now...

All leagues have high scoring and low scoring teams, so it's not an advantage unique to any particular league.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

All leagues have high scoring and low scoring teams, so it's not an advantage unique to any particular league.

Agree...it would have to be a pretty big discrepancy to make a difference. I don't really know what you could do about it anyway (in terms of factoring it into a formula). Basically goes along the same lines as the strength of league. Your formula gets it as close as possible, then you consider other factors like that when making your final evaluation.

 

[Leafs Forever]

I think the problem with trying to get a formula is the amount of things that could mess it up. Maybe these things are specifically identifiable, but there are just so many potential factors that we can speculate about that we can say won't have an impact or were equal between the leagues, but how sure can we really be?

The burden of proof also lies you on this one Dreak; though you've fielded all your variable accountings before, if you're ever going to whip out the numbers best link to a post addressing variables. And if someone brings up a variable, it's up to you to prove that it's not going to have an affect on the rankings, not them.

 

[Dreakmur]

I think the problem with trying to get a formula is the amount of things that could mess it up. Maybe these things are specifically identifiable, but there are just so many potential factors that we can speculate about that we can say won't have an impact or were equal between the leagues, but how sure can we really be?

The burden of proof also lies you on this one Dreak; though you've fielded all your variable accountings before, if you're ever going to whip out the numbers best link to a post addressing variables. And if someone brings up a variable, it's up to you to prove that it's not going to have an affect on the rankings, not them.

That's why I was asking him for specific problems he sees. I can't eliminate them if he keeps them a secret. Same goes for you - if you see a problem, let me know, and I'll see if it is in fact a problem, and if it is, I can try to equalize it.

I'm not professing to have the consolidated number perfected, and I am always looking for ways to improve it, but I do think it's the best we have right now.


As for the assists per game, I've done two seasons so far. One season has NHL have more, the other has the PCHA. As long as one doesn't have a real advantage there, I don't see it as an issue that needs to be accounted for - obviously neither league would have a looser stats man.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

If there is a single picture that sums up Ted Lindsay's 16 year NHL career with the Detroit Red Wings and Chicago Black Hawks, it's the night he held his stick like a rifle and pretended to shoot the Maple Leaf Garden's crowd.

Prior to a 1956 playoff game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, an angry Toronto fan threatened the lives of Lindsay, and his linemate Gordie Howe. Although Lindsay wasn't worried, a detachment of plain-clothed policemen was assigned to escort Lindsay and Howe to the game.

The threat had thrown the Wings off their game. They played hesistantly and found themselves down 4-2 with less than 12 minutes remaining in the game. Then Lindsay and Howe went to work. Howe struck first at 9:11 of the third period when he fired a pass from defenseman Red Kelly past Leafs' goalie, (undrafted), to bring the Wings within a goal. Five minutes later, Lindsay tied the game with a low shot from 30 feet out.

The game headed into overtime, but not for long. Just 4:22 into the extra frame, Lindsay slammed home a pass from (undrafted defenseman) to give the Wings a commanding 3-0 lead in the series. After scoring the goal, the tempestuous Lindsay circled the ice, aimed his stick like a machine gun, and began firing imaginery bullets into the crowd. No one was going to threaten Ted Lindsay.

-Great Left Wingers: Stars of Hockey's Golden Age

 

[DoMakc]

Atlanta Thrashers select Francis Michael "King" Clancy,D.

 

[chaosrevolver]

Atlanta Thrashers select Francis Michael "King" Clancy,D.

NICE! I like the jump.

 

[Sturminator]

Nighbor is definitely a good pick, but I wouldnt want him to be the best offensive player on my team

Considering where we are in the draft, there is no reason why he has to be the best offensive player on Reen's team. I find your criticism strange, though. Does anyone say that of Bobby Clarke when he is drafted? Nighbor and Clarke are extremely similar in terms of what they bring, and the level at which they bring it. Clarke is more physical and Nighbor's scoring is more balanced, but other than that, there is very little to seperate them.

I would like to see Frank Nighbor make it into the first round one of these days. It has taken us a long time to tease "the truth" out of the legends of old-time hockey, but the more information we have, the clearer it becomes that Nighbor was the greatest player of the pre-consolidation age (meaning before Morenz). This was obviously the consensus of the people who actually saw those players on the ice. In Cyclone Taylor's case, they are difficult to compare because Taylor played most of his best years in the relative obscurity of the west, but the case for Nighbor over Lalonde is open and shut. I have no idea why Newsy continues to be drafted ahead of Frank...probably his last name and the Habs connection. Nighbor rightfully belongs in the Clarke - Esposito tier of all-time centers, or at the very least on the same level with Taylor. It's been a slow climb, but I'm sure he'll eventually get there.

 

[Sturminator]

Why do you think Kharlamov is brittle? Asside from a two-handed blind-side attack, when was he injured on the ice?

He's vulnerable to car crashes.

Well, actually, he did also get his clock cleaned by an unspectacular Flyers defenseman (iirc) when the Red Army team toured north america. But anyway...injuries made Kharlamov's peak shorter than it should have been, but they were off-ice injuries. On-ice, I don't see any reason to consider him brittle.

 

[Dreakmur]

As for the assists per game, I've done two seasons so far. One season has NHL have more, the other has the PCHA. As long as one doesn't have a real advantage there, I don't see it as an issue that needs to be accounted for - obviously neither league would have a looser stats man.

It looks like the PCHA actually did hand out a significantly higher rate of assists per goal, so I will be making adjustments to adress that over the couple days.

 

[Sturminator]

This one million times over.

This is the guy I've been trying to trade up for for two days. He was THE GUY I wanted for my squad that would have fit absolutely perfectly with how I want to play a crazy defensive style of hockey.

Heh...yeah, a Harvey / Nighbor core has been tried before. It worked out well the first time, though that was back in ATD#11 when Nighbor could still be had far below his actual value. I don't think teams had any idea how to attack that first unit.

 

[Dreakmur]

FYI, Hawkey Town's list was killed with picks, so that's why I haven't posted his pick. I PMed him to let him know he got all scooped up.

 

[Dreakmur]

After adjusting to equalize the assists per game ratios, I have a new set of consolidated finishes for the 3 split league players who were selected.

Cyclone Taylor
Points – 1st(1914), 1st(1918), 1st(1919), 2nd(1915), 2nd(1916), 12th(1913)
Goals – 1st(1918), 1st(1919), 2nd(1916), 5th(1914), 8th(1915)
Assists – 1st(1913), 1st(1914), 1st(1915), 1st(1919), 2nd(1916), 2nd(1918)

Newsy Lalonde
Points – 1st(1921), 3rd(1919), 4th(1912), 4th(1920), 5th(1913), 5th(1916), 7th(1918), 8th(1917), 9th(1923), 14th(1914)
Goals – 3rd(1916), 4th(1912), 4th(1919), 4th(1920), 4th(1921), 5th(1913), 5th(1923), 7th(1918), 8th(1917), 12th(1914)
Assists – 2nd(1919), 8th(1921), 10th(1920), 13th(1917), 15th(1916), 15th(1918), 19th(1924)

Frank Nighbor
Points – 1st(1917), 5th(1913), 5th(1919), 5th(1920), 10th(1921), 11th(1926), 12th(1915), 15th(1916), 16th(1924), 18th(1918)
Goals – 1st(1917), 5th(1913), 6th(1919), 7th(1920), 11th(1921), 12th(1915), 12th(1916)
Assists – 1st(1926), 2nd(1920), 3rd(1917), 3rd(1919), 5th(1924), 8th(1921), 11th(1918), 15th(1915), 16th(1916), 17th(1922), 18th(1927)




Keep in mind, this only encompasses seasons after the PCHA began. Anything before 1912, is not listed here. That ignores large chunks of both Taylor's and Lalonde's careers, but hold all of Nighbor's.

 

[Sturminator]

Dreak, those consolidated stats are simply brutal. Just for example: how on earth can you consider Frank Nighbor 4th in consolidated scoring in 1916-17? He and one other guy in the NHA lapped the league in scoring that season. Do you seriously think that there were three better scorers in the PCHL that season? Those stats need to come with an enormous asterisk:

*this is my completely unscientific opinion*

...just so younger posters don't get confused and take that business for some kind of canon.

 

[VanIslander]

Notes on excellent early 2nd rounders who basically are franchise anchoring selections (1st round quality picks in the 2nd round):

Halifax has Cyclone and Kharlamov! Talk about speed and creativity on transition!

Garnish has Messier and Hall. Now there's strength up the middle.

 

[chaosrevolver]

We have two unreal playoff performers (pats self on back).